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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  2020 U.S. Presidential Election
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE, ON Progressive)
  NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead
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Author Topic: NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead  (Read 1241 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: November 26, 2019, 09:13:03 pm »
« edited: November 26, 2019, 10:06:40 pm by MT Treasurer »




Trump approval: 42/53 (-11)
Trump impeachment: 47% support, 44% oppose
Sununu approval: 49/30 (+19)
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2019, 09:15:06 pm »

NH is a likely D state
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Brittain33
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« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2019, 09:40:55 pm »

Why does the poll with undecideds have a smaller sample size than the other one?
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Cinemark
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« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2019, 10:01:49 pm »
« Edited: November 26, 2019, 10:04:54 pm by #Klobmentum »

Trump is at +1 nationally but -11 in New Hampshire? Makes sense Emerson. /s
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2019, 10:04:46 pm »

Buttigieg would be a good fit for NH, especially Masshole-ville.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2019, 11:37:20 pm »

„Pete cannot win against Trump.“

Roll Eyes
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I'm a Bernie Bro but let's unite behind Biden
Lakigigar
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2019, 08:32:18 am »

Closer than i've expected. NH is far from safe, but probably lean D - likely D.
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2019, 09:39:29 am »

A presidential poll with undecideds from Emerson? Did they see the light?
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Gustaf
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« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2019, 10:16:27 am »

How are Yang and Warren ahead of Trump with undecideds but trailing without?
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2019, 12:16:49 pm »

Trump is at +1 nationally but -11 in New Hampshire? Makes sense Emerson. /s

It’s not unreasonable to assume that NH has trended further away from Trump than most other (actual) swing states given the state's demographics and actual polling we’ve seen.

Hopefully this will put an end to the inane "Trump can win NH/NV even if he loses MI/WI/PA" hot takes, but who am I kidding? We all know that it won’t.
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Pestilence Comes Out of Retirement
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« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2019, 01:28:04 pm »


If lily white socially progressive New Englanders love him, he's a slam dunk for the rest of the country.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2019, 04:17:04 pm »

Well, these numbers (for once) look reasonable
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2019, 04:22:13 pm »

Trump is at +1 nationally but -11 in New Hampshire? Makes sense Emerson. /s

It’s not unreasonable to assume that NH has trended further away from Trump than most other (actual) swing states given the state's demographics and actual polling we’ve seen.

Hopefully this will put an end to the inane "Trump can win NH/NV even if he loses MI/WI/PA" hot takes, but who am I kidding? We all know that it won’t.

Yeah, I don’t think Trump will do that well in New England, he has governed as a generally socially conservative president (on abortion) and thus New England should trend a bit to the left next year
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2019, 07:35:26 am »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
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SN2903
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« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2019, 10:33:10 am »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
way too early to say that
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2019, 01:06:28 pm »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
way too early to say that

No it's not, Gary Johnson took votes away and Jill Stein. from Hilary, to seal the election Trump. Different dynamics in 2020
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Boomerberg2020
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« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2019, 11:59:17 pm »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
way too early to say that

No it's not, Gary Johnson took votes away and Jill Stein. from Hilary, to seal the election Trump. Different dynamics in 2020

Bill Weld has publicly stated that 70% of Johnson supporters would’ve voted for trump. As for MN,NH,NV,ME,and CO, it’ll depend on the democratic nominee. Boomerberg would probably lose NV,and ME with possibles at losing MN and NH. Warren would have a very real shot to lose all those states. While Sanders/Biden would probably hold onto NV,CO,and ME.
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TDAS04
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« Reply #17 on: December 03, 2019, 08:15:16 am »

A bit of an embarrassing poll for Warren, but I think any of the leading Democrats would ultimately beat Trump in NH.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #18 on: December 03, 2019, 08:42:42 am »

The 278 freiwall is secure, even with that partisan Marquette poll showing Trunp ahead in WI
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #19 on: December 03, 2019, 05:42:49 pm »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2019, 06:35:51 pm »

Trump/Pence is the  weakest Prez ticket since McCain/Palin. They trailed Obama/Biden by 12 points throughout the election too.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2019, 07:04:13 pm »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.

I agree with all of this. Even the rural trends are more ambiguous than in any other swing state, and the fact that they couldn’t win it in 2016 when they prioritized it over WI/PA/MI speaks for itself.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2019, 07:49:53 pm »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.

I agree with all of this. Even the rural trends are more ambiguous than in any other swing state, and the fact that they couldn’t win it in 2016 when they prioritized it over WI/PA/MI speaks for itself.

Well, the largest non-urbanized county in the state is dominated by an Ivy League college, so it really is an exceptional case. 
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