NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 08:22:12 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: NH-Emerson GE poll: Democrats ahead  (Read 2063 times)
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 26, 2019, 09:13:03 PM »
« edited: November 26, 2019, 10:06:40 PM by MT Treasurer »




Trump approval: 42/53 (-11)
Trump impeachment: 47% support, 44% oppose
Sununu approval: 49/30 (+19)
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,806
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 26, 2019, 09:15:06 PM »

NH is a likely D state
Logged
Brittain33
brittain33
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,933


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 26, 2019, 09:40:55 PM »

Why does the poll with undecideds have a smaller sample size than the other one?
Logged
Cinemark
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 870


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 26, 2019, 10:01:49 PM »
« Edited: November 26, 2019, 10:04:54 PM by #Klobmentum »

Trump is at +1 nationally but -11 in New Hampshire? Makes sense Emerson. /s
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 26, 2019, 10:04:46 PM »

Buttigieg would be a good fit for NH, especially Masshole-ville.
Logged
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 26, 2019, 11:37:20 PM »

„Pete cannot win against Trump.“

Roll Eyes
Logged
LAKISYLVANIA
Lakigigar
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,165
Belgium


Political Matrix
E: -7.42, S: -4.78

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2019, 08:32:18 AM »

Closer than i've expected. NH is far from safe, but probably lean D - likely D.
Logged
Skye
yeah_93
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,579
Venezuela


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2019, 09:39:29 AM »

A presidential poll with undecideds from Emerson? Did they see the light?
Logged
Gustaf
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 29,770


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -0.70

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 27, 2019, 10:16:27 AM »

How are Yang and Warren ahead of Trump with undecideds but trailing without?
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 27, 2019, 12:16:49 PM »

Trump is at +1 nationally but -11 in New Hampshire? Makes sense Emerson. /s

It’s not unreasonable to assume that NH has trended further away from Trump than most other (actual) swing states given the state's demographics and actual polling we’ve seen.

Hopefully this will put an end to the inane "Trump can win NH/NV even if he loses MI/WI/PA" hot takes, but who am I kidding? We all know that it won’t.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 27, 2019, 01:28:04 PM »


If lily white socially progressive New Englanders love him, he's a slam dunk for the rest of the country.
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 27, 2019, 04:17:04 PM »

Well, these numbers (for once) look reasonable
Logged
Frenchrepublican
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,278


P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 27, 2019, 04:22:13 PM »

Trump is at +1 nationally but -11 in New Hampshire? Makes sense Emerson. /s

It’s not unreasonable to assume that NH has trended further away from Trump than most other (actual) swing states given the state's demographics and actual polling we’ve seen.

Hopefully this will put an end to the inane "Trump can win NH/NV even if he loses MI/WI/PA" hot takes, but who am I kidding? We all know that it won’t.

Yeah, I don’t think Trump will do that well in New England, he has governed as a generally socially conservative president (on abortion) and thus New England should trend a bit to the left next year
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 28, 2019, 07:35:26 AM »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
Logged
SN2903
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,676
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.48, S: 3.91

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: November 28, 2019, 10:33:10 AM »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
way too early to say that
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,806
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: November 28, 2019, 01:06:28 PM »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
way too early to say that

No it's not, Gary Johnson took votes away and Jill Stein. from Hilary, to seal the election Trump. Different dynamics in 2020
Logged
Boomerberg2020
Rookie
**
Posts: 28
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: December 02, 2019, 11:59:17 PM »

The states that Trump barely lost (MN, NH, NV, and ME-AL; arguably CO) have swung out of reach.
way too early to say that

No it's not, Gary Johnson took votes away and Jill Stein. from Hilary, to seal the election Trump. Different dynamics in 2020

Bill Weld has publicly stated that 70% of Johnson supporters would’ve voted for trump. As for MN,NH,NV,ME,and CO, it’ll depend on the democratic nominee. Boomerberg would probably lose NV,and ME with possibles at losing MN and NH. Warren would have a very real shot to lose all those states. While Sanders/Biden would probably hold onto NV,CO,and ME.
Logged
TDAS04
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 23,475
Bhutan


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: December 03, 2019, 08:15:16 AM »

A bit of an embarrassing poll for Warren, but I think any of the leading Democrats would ultimately beat Trump in NH.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,806
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: December 03, 2019, 08:42:42 AM »

The 278 freiwall is secure, even with that partisan Marquette poll showing Trunp ahead in WI
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: December 03, 2019, 05:42:49 PM »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,806
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: December 03, 2019, 06:35:51 PM »

Trump/Pence is the  weakest Prez ticket since McCain/Palin. They trailed Obama/Biden by 12 points throughout the election too.
Logged
MT Treasurer
IndyRep
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 15,284
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: December 03, 2019, 07:04:13 PM »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.

I agree with all of this. Even the rural trends are more ambiguous than in any other swing state, and the fact that they couldn’t win it in 2016 when they prioritized it over WI/PA/MI speaks for itself.
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,522
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: December 03, 2019, 07:49:53 PM »

NH is actually really high in % college graduates vs. other swing states.  There is rural ground left for Dems to lose there, but there is plenty of room for gains in the Boston outer suburbs/exurbs.  It's not the kind of place you would expect to keep zooming right with the new coalitions.  If I had to pick a swing state where Trump's 2016 performance was a one time thing, this would be it.

I agree with all of this. Even the rural trends are more ambiguous than in any other swing state, and the fact that they couldn’t win it in 2016 when they prioritized it over WI/PA/MI speaks for itself.

Well, the largest non-urbanized county in the state is dominated by an Ivy League college, so it really is an exceptional case. 
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.048 seconds with 13 queries.