Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.

Yeah, but they all held in the end (though they could break next year). Most importantly however, Apples to Oranges. Austin is a 70% D uber liberal city, not a bunch of 50-50 bedroom communities.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1195437527194357760

Yeah, playing it smart.

He would be a way stronger candidate than Handel. Sucks to see him out of the race.

Better to keep him healthy for 2022 imo.

McBath will probably have a safer district in 2022. Hard to see him win then.

Totally disagreed. It's super easy to gerrymander her district + the 7th safe R and get rid of the 2nd at the same time, and there's no reason for GA Republicans not to do it. Parts of Forsyth County being in the 9th are beyond me, as is the inane self-packing we have up there.

It would be positively idiotic for the GA legislature not to draw a 4th Safe Dem seat in Atlanta, even worse than the 2011 VA House of Delegates map going for 2/3rds in NOVA.  They could end up down to 6 or even 5 seats in a Republican midterm during the second half of the decade.  They may have to MD-02/03 the North GA mountains just to keep Dems from holding a 5th Atlanta seat.

It would be positively idiotic for them not to. The math is super simple there imo.

GA-9: 78-19 Trump
GA-14: 75-22 Trump
GA-11: 60-35 Trump
GA-10: 61-36 Trump
GA-3: 64-33

GA-6 and GA-7 are literally surrounded by super red Trump districts. Even just GA-9 and GA-14 would be enough to turn them red. There's 0 reason from a gerrymandering perspective for the legislature to hold back.

Yes but the counter to that is look at what happened in Texas last year. The Austin pizza slice seats that were all like >60% McCain/Romney almost all fell in one single election because of the rapid blue bubble expanding out of the urban core. The same thing is happening in Atlanta.

Yeah, but they all held in the end (though they could break next year). Most importantly however, Apples to Oranges. Austin is a 70% D uber liberal city, not a bunch of 50-50 bedroom communities.

Gwinnett and Cobb counties aren’t yet maxed out for Democrats.

Sure, but not all of Gwinnett or Cobb counties needs or should be in the same district. Besides, even if they started voting 60-40 D, you could still work out a pretty good gerrymander that takes both GA-6 and 7 back to the woodshed.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

Here's a safe R 11-3 map.

Green ATL District - 22%-75%, Clinton +53

Purple ATL District - 15%-83%, Clinton +68

Orange ATL District - 13%-85%, Clinton +72

Yellow ATL District - 57%-38%, Trump +19

Greenish-Blue ATL District - 57%-39%, Trump +18

Grey ATL District - 58%-38%, Trump +20

Purple District that includes Athens (to the right of ATL) - 60%-37%, Trump +23

Illuminated Blue district along SC border - 61-37%, Trump +24

Pink District that includes Savannah - 59-38%, Trump +21

Light Green South GA district - 60-38%, Trump +22

North to Central GA light blue district - 70-28%, Trump +42

Brown District South of ATL - 57-40%, Trump+17

Alabama Border District - 64-34, Trump +30

Weird Central GA Orange District - 62-36, Trump +26

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Oh, and I noticed the light blue district has a small bit of unconnected land - just fixed that, results unchanged.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Well thank y'all for your kind 8 seat maps, but the GA GOP doesn't even need to go close to that

https://imgur.com/a/cpbG9t6

Here's a safe R 11-3 map.

Green ATL District - 22%-75%, Clinton +53

Purple ATL District - 15%-83%, Clinton +68

Orange ATL District - 13%-85%, Clinton +72

Yellow ATL District - 57%-38%, Trump +19

Greenish-Blue ATL District - 57%-39%, Trump +18

Grey ATL District - 58%-38%, Trump +20

Purple District that includes Athens (to the right of ATL) - 60%-37%, Trump +23

Illuminated Blue district along SC border - 61-37%, Trump +24

Pink District that includes Savannah - 59-38%, Trump +21

Light Green South GA district - 60-38%, Trump +22

North to Central GA light blue district - 70-28%, Trump +42

Brown District South of ATL - 57-40%, Trump+17

Alabama Border District - 64-34, Trump +30

Weird Central GA Orange District - 62-36, Trump +26

It ain't pretty, but it gives you 11 safe R Trump +17 or higher districts. There's no need to come even close to an 8 seat map - drawing an 11 seat map isn't even too hard, though a 10 seater might be better to avoid VRA trouble.

Prior to the suburban collapse, you could easily draw a 12-2 or even a 13-1 under the right circumstances (the former may still be possible), but they're just as realistic as the one above: no way would that hold up in court, even if just on the splicing alone.

You've packed black voters into 2 60%+ black VAP districts and proceeded to crack the 3rd required district (which can't be much more than 40% black VAP from the looks of it); not a single one of those would be Section 2 VRA-compatible. It would be hilarious if the GAGOP tried this, it somehow managed to stand for a single cycle, and a Democratic Governor was elected in 2022 who would then force the maps to be drawn by the courts.

Required reading: the last congressional map passed by Democrats in GA; the Barnes Dummymander

Yep - the GOP objectively shouldn't pass this map. However, it does show that they can actually draw a safe R 10 map (the probable legal maximum), and that all this talk of 8-6 maps is nothing but dreams.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://imgur.com/a/pFAldhX

Here's a better GA map, probably legal, much cleaner and more compact, safe 10-4.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Heres a hypothetical GA map:



District   Ethnicity   White   Black   Native   Asian/PI   Hispanic   Other
1   Mostly White   60%   29%   0%   2%   7%   2%
2   Black / White Mix   52%   39%   0%   1%   6%   1%
3   Mostly White   61%   30%   0%   2%   5%   2%
4   Mostly Black   29%   54%   0%   6%   9%   2%
5   Black / White Mix   35%   52%   0%   4%   8%   2%
6   Mostly White   51%   19%   0%   12%   15%   3%
7   Mixed   41%   27%   0%   10%   20%   2%
8   Black / White Mix   54%   37%   0%   1%   6%   2%
9   Solid White   77%   5%   0%   4%   13%   2%
10   Mostly White   66%   23%   0%   2%   7%   2%
11   Mostly White   69%   19%   0%   3%   7%   2%
12   Black / White Mix   55%   37%   0%   2%   4%   2%
13   Mostly Black   29%   56%   0%   3%   9%   2%
14   Solid White   79%   6%   0%   1%   12%   1%


2016 vote:
GA-01: Trump +10
GA-02: Trump +17
GA-03: Trump +25
GA-04: Clinton +63
GA-05: Clinton +53
GA-06: Clinton +4
GA-07: Clinton +5
GA-08: Trump +18
GA-09: Trump +52
GA-10: Trump +24
GA-11: Trump +35
GA-12: Trump +11
GA-13: Clinton +38
GA-14: Trump +56


The map would likely provide a reliable 8R-5D delegation. Its a bit of a safer choice for the GOP, but its a map that can last.

This is what I expect will happen.  There will be no appetite to MD-02/03/04 the North GA mountains to Atlanta.

Why on earth would the GOP pass this? By the time you get to GA-06/GA-07, they're almost throwing away seats. And since when has Brian Kemp not shown his willingness to be electorally bold?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

https://imgur.com/a/pFAldhX

Here's a better GA map, probably legal, much cleaner and more compact, safe 10-4.

Once again, you've made a critical mistake: the 3 black-majority/plurality districts in Metro ATL are required - without packing or cracking - and you can't substitute one of those by drawing an east-to-west abomination connecting Albany, Columbus, Macon & Augusta. Looks like the 2 black-majority districts you've included in the metro are severely packed (>60% black VAP). The gray one almost certainly wouldn't pass muster (majority-minority I'm sure, but that's not the same thing; thanks, Gingles!)

I'll make it easy for you: draw 3 districts in metro ATL where black voters are the largest group in each (between 48-55% VAP; ideally based on 2016 estimates) before doing anything else. Then see how far you can extend the dominance of the GOP without creating multiple vulnerabilities and/or drawing absolutely atrocious lines. There's a reason why the GOP maps of 2011 were the first since the passage of the VRA that didn't undergo massive court challenges: they aren't the type to take risks (try being out of power for 150+ years and then gambling your fleeting decade-long majority with some bad maps).

I'll just take the South Fulton district and shift it with the "monstrosity" then - not too hard.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

This isn't 55% VAP, but here's the map with all 3 plurality or majority black:

https://imgur.com/a/TerwfXj

Considering these are Atlanta districts + current composition of SC, I think it's reasonable to say a Virginia style standard could be applied - ie because of more liberal whites/Hispanics it's okay to have a high plurality or low majority black district, since black voters will still be able to select their chosen representative. Thoughts?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Map above has 3 black majority and 1 black plurality (ATL has 1 black plurality and 2 black majority, and there's a third black majority district in central GA).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Ok, final version.

https://imgur.com/a/Do9el9i

Certifiably VRA compliant, all VRA districts are 48% or higher (minimum is 49.6%).

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Would this satisfy the VRA for GA 2? This packs more of Atlanta to be safer for the GA GOp but still has 4 black majority districts(actually all around 49% VAP)

Pretty sure that's legal, although the green district might fall afoul as too hard packing, like the NC Charlotte -> Greensboro one did.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

No, because you totally ignore the fact population distribution changed since 2010.

We went over that too. Still no change in the conclusions.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

also besides the obvious implications for Congressional redistricting, note that each State House district would have a population of ~58,442 using this estimate

among many other observations to be made, note that the metro counties that voted for Hillary are collectively gaining like eight house seats here

Used your map to try and break the state into various clusters of growth (or loss):



Among the red cluster of counties above that have lost population, Clinton counties were responsible for 15,183 out of the 21,348 lost. However and overall, since 2010:

Clinton Counties: +488830
Trump Counties: +342992

Yep. Still no change to overall conclusion.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

I would absolutely love to see the GOP attempt a 10-4 gerrymander, because it would absolutely be a dummymander that would completely backfire in their faces.

"GA GOP attempting to draw a 10R-4D map in 2020" would easily overtake "AR Dems attempting to draw a 3D-1R map in 2010" as the worst ever self-inflicted redistricting failure

https://twitter.com/CARepublicanMap/status/1205669677482930177?s=20

This is incredibly stupid as a take. The Arkansas D districts were literally McCain-Bush-Bush districts, not Trump+28

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I think would be a relatively fair map of the Atlanta region. Only splits Atlanta once because I chose to keep Dekalb county whole.

Anyway
Purple =Clinton +3 Almost all of Cobb County besides 2 precints, perfectly good COI to keep whole- Lean/Likely D rn but quickly approaching Safe D.
Green = Most of Milton +Forsyth and most of Cherokee- 63% Trump and should be Safe R even by the end of 2030
Blue = most o Atlanta +SW dekalb and part of Milton county. Titanium D at 78% Clinton and 58% Black by 2018 population.
Red = Middle class suburbs +white flight suburbs South of Atlanta+ tiny chop of dekalb county. Majority black but still has relative racial polarization to keep it at only 65% Clinton
Yellow = Dekalb county and Titanium D
Teal = Inner Gwinett county and used to be competitive for the GOP but its +15 Clinton so Safe D and +24 Abrams so obviously Safe D. Was Mccain +4.

Overall is a 4-1-1 map with the swing district quickly becoming Safe D.

Yeah, this is what I'd call fair, though in all reality the Cobb one would be Safe D in practice already with trends.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

In regards to South Georgia, here's my version of a fair district. Drawn without looking at partisan data. Numbers:

Isakson +11.1
Trump +3.6
Obama 08 +1.8
Kemp +3.9

[Libertas Vel Mors]

Here's five Democratic districts in Atlanta that has the same effects of Blairite's maps (3 Black VAP districts, a majority-White district, and a Gwinnett Maj-Min districts) that only splits Atlanta once along racial lines.

That's probably a better map. I assumed it was better to split Atlanta than have multiple Cobb splits or a Fulton/De Kalb split, but the COIs are probably better respected there. Cobb still looks weird though.

Now that I revisit this map, I realize it's incredibly similar to the current district alignment in Metro ATL.  The current map is almost fair, although it really should have 2 Likely Dem and 4 Safe Dem seats in Metro Atlanta under a truly fair map Democratic gerrymander, so it seems.  No way anything like the current GA-06 survives 2021 redistricting.

FIFY

Yeah..most of these maps are just D gerrymanders here. A "fair" GA map would likely have 3 heavily packed (Due to political geography) AA districts, a Cobb County district that votes D, and a Gwinnett County district that votes D, counterbalanced by a much closer (Clinton +2 or so) GA-02. There's absolutely no way you can call a 6 D ATL map fair.

Georgia is essencially a Lean R state, how is a 6-8 map not fair?

Political geography and the self packing of GA Dems in the Atlanta metro means that a fair map would have 5 D seats in the ATL area (3 ATL, 2 suburbs) and 1 marginal Trump seat that could go either way in South Georgia. 5-1-8.