Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[lfromnj]

According to 538’s Atlas of Redistricting, there are a wide variety of ways to redistrict this state, depending on the main goal:

-The most pro-R gerrymander would be 11R-3D;
-The most pro-D gerrymander would be 8D-6R;
-A “proportionally partisan” map would be 8R-6D;
-It is possible to create as many as 7 swing districts or 6 districts where non-Whites are a majority.
-If county splits are to be kept to a minimum, it could involve as few as 11 splits (the current map has 22 splits).

I wouldn't use 538s map imo. It uses PVI and other factors which is useless in Georgia which is a state where it's mostly 2016 and 2018. For example GA 7th is shown as 94% Chance of going GOP in the 538 map when its clearly one of the most competitive districts in 2018 and 2016 and was relatively close at a presidential level in 2016.

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
Here's the best bet for GA GOP.  4 black plurality districts in Atlanta, 10 white majority safe R districts.  The least safe red district is Trump+16, but it's downstate.  Inelastic.  Both suburban Northern Atlanta districts are about Trump+30.  It isn't beautiful, but isn't nearly as bad as MD or the 2012 NC map. 

[Brittain33]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
Here's the best bet for GA GOP.  4 black plurality districts in Atlanta, 10 white majority safe R districts.  The least safe red district is Trump+16, but it's downstate.  Inelastic.  Both suburban Northern Atlanta districts are about Trump+30.  It isn't beautiful, but isn't nearly as bad as MD or the 2012 NC map. 

Why do your GA-4 and GA-7 look like that?

[Oryxslayer]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
Here's the best bet for GA GOP.  4 black plurality districts in Atlanta, 10 white majority safe R districts.  The least safe red district is Trump+16, but it's downstate.  Inelastic.  Both suburban Northern Atlanta districts are about Trump+30.  It isn't beautiful, but isn't nearly as bad as MD or the 2012 NC map.  

Continuing from our discussion in another thread, there are some states where you can use 2010 DRA pop data and get away with having okay district lines. GA, NC, FL, TX, etc are not those states. The pop distribution has shifted to a large degree in favor of certain regions, in this state that is Atlanta. You don't even need the partisan data really, since Race = Partisanship outside of a few easily identifiable Suburbs/City Centers/Athens.

For example, this has four 50% or (49.x%) AA seats in Atlanta using the mid-decade data, along with a fifth new Dem pack in the Diverse Part of Northwest Gwinnett.  

[Idaho Conservative]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/345f09d8-6559-4bf9-8705-3b570ddc4546
Here's the best bet for GA GOP.  4 black plurality districts in Atlanta, 10 white majority safe R districts.  The least safe red district is Trump+16, but it's downstate.  Inelastic.  Both suburban Northern Atlanta districts are about Trump+30.  It isn't beautiful, but isn't nearly as bad as MD or the 2012 NC map. 

Why do your GA-4 and GA-7 look like that?

To fulfill the VRA, I made 4 black districts to be safe.  I needed to crack the diverse and white dem areas and but them with black areas in the urban core to increase the number of black districts in Atl to make up for GA-2 being cracked.

[Non Swing Voter]

This thread is proof that SCOTUS should have never touched the VRA. 

[Bacon King]

Here's a quick map of county-level population change since the last census that I made in order to visualize how it will affect redistricting. In particular the impact of these population shifts will be greatly amplified on account of the bizarre fact that in spite of being on track to gain a million people by the end of the decade we somehow won't be awarded another seat in the House.

I couldn't find county data for the 2019 estimates so the estimates are a year old but the trends are clear regardless.

Click to embiggen

[Bacon King]

also besides the obvious implications for Congressional redistricting, note that each State House district would have a population of ~58,442 using this estimate

among many other observations to be made, note that the metro counties that voted for Hillary are collectively gaining like eight house seats here

[Idaho Conservative]

This thread is proof that SCOTUS should have never touched the VRA. 

shouldn't have required minority districts?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

[MaxQue]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

No, because you totally ignore the fact population distribution changed since 2010.

[Idaho Conservative]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

packing mcbath is by far the smarter choice, considering trends in atl.  Bishop's seat isn't vra protected, but a 4th aa district should be drawn in atl to preempt any challenges.  ga-6 could get an african plurality if it takes in some of atlanta and loses white conservative areas

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

No, because you totally ignore the fact population distribution changed since 2010.

We went over that too. Still no change in the conclusions.

[Adam Griffin]

also besides the obvious implications for Congressional redistricting, note that each State House district would have a population of ~58,442 using this estimate

among many other observations to be made, note that the metro counties that voted for Hillary are collectively gaining like eight house seats here

Used your map to try and break the state into various clusters of growth (or loss):



Among the red cluster of counties above that have lost population, Clinton counties were responsible for 15,183 out of the 21,348 lost. However and overall, since 2010:

Clinton Counties: +488830
Trump Counties: +342992

[Libertas Vel Mors]

also besides the obvious implications for Congressional redistricting, note that each State House district would have a population of ~58,442 using this estimate

among many other observations to be made, note that the metro counties that voted for Hillary are collectively gaining like eight house seats here

Used your map to try and break the state into various clusters of growth (or loss):



Among the red cluster of counties above that have lost population, Clinton counties were responsible for 15,183 out of the 21,348 lost. However and overall, since 2010:

Clinton Counties: +488830
Trump Counties: +342992

Yep. Still no change to overall conclusion.

[Sol]

also besides the obvious implications for Congressional redistricting, note that each State House district would have a population of ~58,442 using this estimate

among many other observations to be made, note that the metro counties that voted for Hillary are collectively gaining like eight house seats here

Used your map to try and break the state into various clusters of growth (or loss):



Among the red cluster of counties above that have lost population, Clinton counties were responsible for 15,183 out of the 21,348 lost. However and overall, since 2010:

Clinton Counties: +488830
Trump Counties: +342992

Yep. Still no change to overall conclusion.

Do you have a map for this with 2016 data? Apologies if I missed this!

[Adam Griffin]

Do you have a map for this with 2016 data? Apologies if I missed this!

Actually you may have meant his purported 10-4 map, but in case not:

[Sol]

Do you have a map for this with 2016 data? Apologies if I missed this!

Actually you may have meant his purported 10-4 map

That I did.

[Oryxslayer]

Anyway, I agree that the consensus stated is how Georgia would be drawn if 2016/18 was the Redistricting period. It's similar to TX in this way. However, Georgia is one of multiple states where 2020 could frighten the party with the pen. If 2016 trends, especially the ones based on migration and race rather than voter flips (like in GA and TX for D's, Upper Midwest for R's) end up intensifying, then the parties will have to concede more packs. In Georgia, this would mean more Blue in Atlanta then the 10-4 consensus.

[Bacon King]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

I would absolutely love to see the GOP attempt a 10-4 gerrymander, because it would absolutely be a dummymander that would completely backfire in their faces.

"GA GOP attempting to draw a 10R-4D map in 2020" would easily overtake "AR Dems attempting to draw a 3D-1R map in 2010" as the worst ever self-inflicted redistricting failure

[Bacon King]

Bishop's seat isn't vra protected, but a 4th aa district should be drawn in atl to preempt any challenges.

1. where is this idea coming from that the 2nd District isn't protected by the VRA? Because it absolutely is.

2. That is not at all how the Voting Rights Act works, for so many different reasons

[Idaho Conservative]

Bishop's seat isn't vra protected, but a 4th aa district should be drawn in atl to preempt any challenges.

1. where is this idea coming from that the 2nd District isn't protected by the VRA? Because it absolutely is.

2. That is not at all how the Voting Rights Act works, for so many different reasons

It was created as a D vote sink by the legislature, not court order, and it is not majority black.  But in the case a court interprets the vra to require a 4th aa seat in Georgia, a 4th aa district in Atlanta would satisfy that.  A 10-4 map is doable, as long as all 4 d seats are in Atlanta.  pack all of the bluest precincts into 4 districts, then crack any blue/purple areas left. 

[The Mikado]

Bishop's seat isn't vra protected, but a 4th aa district should be drawn in atl to preempt any challenges.

1. where is this idea coming from that the 2nd District isn't protected by the VRA? Because it absolutely is.

2. That is not at all how the Voting Rights Act works, for so many different reasons

It was created as a D vote sink by the legislature, not court order, and it is not majority black.  But in the case a court interprets the vra to require a 4th aa seat in Georgia, a 4th aa district in Atlanta would satisfy that.  A 10-4 map is doable, as long as all 4 d seats are in Atlanta.  pack all of the bluest precincts into 4 districts, then crack any blue/purple areas left. 

So, leaving aside whether or not this would be VRA compatible, remember this map is supposed to hold until 2030. Is the GA GOP really reckless enough to assume that this map you're proposing will hold? It'd involve a lot of cracking of the ATL suburbs just so that whatever can't be fed into the D districts are split up, but those suburbs are growing at lightspeed.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

TLDR for this thread: The GAGOP can draw 10 Safe R districts. There's no incentive for them not to. The only remaining question is whether it's Bishop that gets cut and McBath packed, or vice versa.

There, are we done?

I would absolutely love to see the GOP attempt a 10-4 gerrymander, because it would absolutely be a dummymander that would completely backfire in their faces.

"GA GOP attempting to draw a 10R-4D map in 2020" would easily overtake "AR Dems attempting to draw a 3D-1R map in 2010" as the worst ever self-inflicted redistricting failure

https://twitter.com/CARepublicanMap/status/1205669677482930177?s=20

This is incredibly stupid as a take. The Arkansas D districts were literally McCain-Bush-Bush districts, not Trump+28

[Idaho Conservative]

Bishop's seat isn't vra protected, but a 4th aa district should be drawn in atl to preempt any challenges.

1. where is this idea coming from that the 2nd District isn't protected by the VRA? Because it absolutely is.

2. That is not at all how the Voting Rights Act works, for so many different reasons

It was created as a D vote sink by the legislature, not court order, and it is not majority black.  But in the case a court interprets the vra to require a 4th aa seat in Georgia, a 4th aa district in Atlanta would satisfy that.  A 10-4 map is doable, as long as all 4 d seats are in Atlanta.  pack all of the bluest precincts into 4 districts, then crack any blue/purple areas left.  

So, leaving aside whether or not this would be VRA compatible, remember this map is supposed to hold until 2030. Is the GA GOP really reckless enough to assume that this map you're proposing will hold? It'd involve a lot of cracking of the ATL suburbs just so that whatever can't be fed into the D districts are split up, but those suburbs are growing at lightspeed.

this map holds until 2030: https://davesredistricting.org/join/27ac753b-33e0-40f1-8acc-6fb947deb3ee
if they wanna be even more careful, they could do this: https://davesredistricting.org/join/781485f1-efa6-4aad-b355-2976a15a9f3b
but a 10-4 is very possible, if done carefully.  we're talking precinct-by-precinct precision and no regard for anything other than partisanship.  It's ugly, but very doable.