Georgia 2020 Redistricting Discussion

[Devils30]

The GOP has to resist the temptation to obsess over Georgia going forward. They will more than compensate for its loss by winning the Midwestern former blue wall states.

[Skill and Chance]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

Hardly illegal.
Detroit in the current state house has 90% black seats and never received a lawsuit.l Thomas will only strike it down if he believes the specific criteria used was to get a black majority district. Most of those districts are natural communities so no reason to expect an unpacking from the 11th or the Supreme court.

I am pretty sure even Breyer is fine with those 70% black seats.

IF anything he would probably order a redraw on SD 36 and 39 as that is a likely racial gerrymander designed to suppress white liberals instead of just creating a 80% black seat and a 30% black seat.

One of those 60%  black seats is almost required if you want to prevent a VA HOD 2.0 anyway.(SW Georgia)

If it gets close later this decade, what do the decisive seats for control look like?  Would the house or senate be easier to flip?  For the senate, let's assume a Dem LG tiebreaker in that kind of environment.  

House flips first I assume as you can't reach as far. Anyway one seat is basically gone by 2024 at Trump +3 in 2020 so dems will have 2024.There is one iffy Savanah suburban seat but I think that would be seat 29 or 30 for dems.

Anyway there are 3 stripped Cobb seats with areas in Cherokee and Bartow.(37,32,56). All around 56% Trump. Finally one seat in outer Gwinett and some further areas which is 58% Trump. I would say the senate falls in 2028 or 2030 while the house falls in 2026.

Not sure about this.  As we saw in VA, it's more likely for smaller rural VRA districts to give out than in a state senate or CD map where the VRA districts have to take in cities or larger towns.  If they have some 55% Biden plurality-black districts in South Georgia on the state house map, watch out. 

[lfromnj]

Waaay too many 60-70%+ AA seats.

Hardly illegal.
Detroit in the current state house has 90% black seats and never received a lawsuit.l Thomas will only strike it down if he believes the specific criteria used was to get a black majority district. Most of those districts are natural communities so no reason to expect an unpacking from the 11th or the Supreme court.

I am pretty sure even Breyer is fine with those 70% black seats.

IF anything he would probably order a redraw on SD 36 and 39 as that is a likely racial gerrymander designed to suppress white liberals instead of just creating a 80% black seat and a 30% black seat.

One of those 60%  black seats is almost required if you want to prevent a VA HOD 2.0 anyway.(SW Georgia)

If it gets close later this decade, what do the decisive seats for control look like?  Would the house or senate be easier to flip?  For the senate, let's assume a Dem LG tiebreaker in that kind of environment.  

House flips first I assume as you can't reach as far. Anyway one seat is basically gone by 2024 at Trump +3 in 2020 so dems will have 2024.There is one iffy Savanah suburban seat but I think that would be seat 29 or 30 for dems.

Anyway there are 3 stripped Cobb seats with areas in Cherokee and Bartow.(37,32,56). All around 56% Trump. Finally one seat in outer Gwinett and some further areas which is 58% Trump. I would say the senate falls in 2028 or 2030 while the house falls in 2026.

Not sure about this.  As we saw in VA, it's more likely for smaller rural VRA districts to give out than in a state senate or CD map where the VRA districts have to take in cities or larger towns.  If they have some 55% Biden plurality-black districts in South Georgia on the state house map, watch out.  

There seem to be 83 Biden districts. 80 of these are Safe or in Atlanta so they should all be D in 2024 at the least. 3 in South Georgia are the rural seats that Rs could win including the SW 154 which they already hold with a party switcher.

After that Democrats just have to focus on flipping Atlanta seats. There are 4 obvious ones and then a bunch spread out around the north. They also have 147 in Warner Robbins which is trending left pretty hard as well. Seems like the senate and house should flip at the same time with the house falling a bit before perhaps.

The Georgia GOP could have also played around with 132/126, you could probably keep both at the same black percentage but one would very Safe D and one would be much more swingy as it would be rural based rather than 2 suburban/urban seats with rural areas attached.

The NC GOP seems to not care at all about the VRA while the GA GOP is just playing it incredibly safe.

[Хahar 🤔]

The GOP has to resist the temptation to obsess over Georgia going forward. They will more than compensate for its loss by winning the Midwestern former blue wall states.

This does nothing for Georgia Republicans.

[lfromnj]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-redistricting-brings-opportunity-for-political-payback/OWKNXTYE2ZCUBFJFZVTYB3FU4M/

Infighting. Georgia Rs decided to force 75% R areas in Coweta with 90% black areas in Fulton in the state house to get rid of a state rep.Even Democrats didn't demand this. Really incredible to waste a district of 75% R areas to give to Democrats.

“The Speaker of the House couldn’t buy me off or beat me at the ballot box, so I am unsurprised he would gerrymander to remove the most conservative Republican in the state from office,” Singleton wrote on Facebook. “This is a shocking betrayal of GA conservatives that is far worse for Coweta than even the Democrat proposal was.”

Singleton has made his opposition to Ralston, a Republican from Blue Ridge, a centerpiece of his political identity, criticizing him for his use of legislative leave. An investigation by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Channel 2 Action News found that Ralston, a criminal defense attorney, frequently delayed criminal cases by claiming they interfered with his legislative duties.

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-redistricting-brings-opportunity-for-political-payback/OWKNXTYE2ZCUBFJFZVTYB3FU4M/

Infighting. Georgia Rs decided to force 75% R areas in Coweta with 90% black areas in Fulton in the state house to get rid of a state rep.Even Democrats didn't demand this. Really incredible to waste a district of 75% R areas to give to Democrats.

“The Speaker of the House couldn’t buy me off or beat me at the ballot box, so I am unsurprised he would gerrymander to remove the most conservative Republican in the state from office,” Singleton wrote on Facebook. “This is a shocking betrayal of GA conservatives that is far worse for Coweta than even the Democrat proposal was.”

Singleton has made his opposition to Ralston, a Republican from Blue Ridge, a centerpiece of his political identity, criticizing him for his use of legislative leave. An investigation by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Channel 2 Action News found that Ralston, a criminal defense attorney, frequently delayed criminal cases by claiming they interfered with his legislative duties.

Notably they justified this move yesterday after releasing an ammeded map that changed a handful of districts but not Coweta as forced upon them by the VRA. This is both understandable - south Fulton has 90% minority precincts that if left compact and not sent southwards will become packs - but also clearly done with targeted intent - Clayton county is not sent southwards in a similar manner despite similar demographics. It therefore is likely to remain so, since a lot of R's and D legislators appear to appreciate the move. However yesterday's forum featured a lot of GOP voters (in addition to the expected Dem and minority groups) critiquing cracking in not just Coweta but also the Blue trending areas like Cobb, Gwinnet, and Forsyth. So we might be in for a substantial remap.  

[wbrocks67]

What are the odds McBath and Bordeaux both get doable districts?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://www.ajc.com/politics/georgia-redistricting-brings-opportunity-for-political-payback/OWKNXTYE2ZCUBFJFZVTYB3FU4M/

Infighting. Georgia Rs decided to force 75% R areas in Coweta with 90% black areas in Fulton in the state house to get rid of a state rep.Even Democrats didn't demand this. Really incredible to waste a district of 75% R areas to give to Democrats.

“The Speaker of the House couldn’t buy me off or beat me at the ballot box, so I am unsurprised he would gerrymander to remove the most conservative Republican in the state from office,” Singleton wrote on Facebook. “This is a shocking betrayal of GA conservatives that is far worse for Coweta than even the Democrat proposal was.”

Singleton has made his opposition to Ralston, a Republican from Blue Ridge, a centerpiece of his political identity, criticizing him for his use of legislative leave. An investigation by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and Channel 2 Action News found that Ralston, a criminal defense attorney, frequently delayed criminal cases by claiming they interfered with his legislative duties.

Time to pass the popcorn.

[lfromnj]

What are the odds McBath and Bordeaux both get doable districts?

Unlikely, I do think the GA GOP wants the Rich northern suburbs for a cycle or 2. I think the original draft map is what happens with perhaps a bit better streching to give Loudermilk a seat for a decade and also making GA02 safe D instead of Likely D.

[lfromnj]

One thing to note about Singleton is that he basically is the MTG of the state house.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

One thing to note about Singleton is that he basically is the MTG of the state house.

Well, that's bound to help his chances...

[Frodo]

State Senate approves Georgia House map; Congressional districts next on agenda

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1460678243347013635

Likely tomorow.

[S019]

Well we'll see how this looks compared to the Senate-proposed draft that we saw earlier.

[S019]

Well so much for that

https://twitter.com/stphnfwlr/status/1460615476199964676?s=21

Either they're trying to crack Bishop, trying to figure how to make his seat as Republican as possible while still performing under the VRA (the two likeliest options imo), or they're playing it totally safe and toying around with how to keep it 50%+ black VAP for the foreseeable future (unlikely imo).

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1460958811204866056?s=21

[Roll Roons]

Smart. A fourth Dem seat in the Atlanta suburbs is pretty much necessary.

[Skill and Chance]

Smart. A fourth Dem seat in the Atlanta suburbs is pretty much necessary.

Yes, but it's interesting they aren't going for broke with GA-02 into Atlanta and GA-06/07/11 into the mountains MD-03 style.  This is probably their last chance to draw the map, and the state supreme court is unanimously conservative. 

[Roll Roons]

Here we go:
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1460989010927628289

[Skill and Chance]

Here we go:
https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1460989010927628289

So is this more aggressive than the senate map on GA-06? 

All of Forsyth with part of Fulton seems like it won't last the decade.   

[Woody]

bye bye Lucy! :-)

[Torie]

That map is quite close to my Pubmander. Fancy that.

[DrScholl]

McBath is extremely hated by Republicans so it's not surprising to see them do this.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Disgusting. If there was any justice the Courts would strike it down, but of course it's Georgia...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

GA 02 numbers?