GA-UGA: Biden +8, Sanders +4, Warren/Buttigieg +3, Harris +1
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  GA-UGA: Biden +8, Sanders +4, Warren/Buttigieg +3, Harris +1
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Author Topic: GA-UGA: Biden +8, Sanders +4, Warren/Buttigieg +3, Harris +1  (Read 2949 times)
ON Progressive
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« on: November 13, 2019, 07:38:56 AM »

Biden 51
Trump 43

Sanders 48
Trump 44

Warren 47
Trump 44

Buttigieg 46
Trump 43

Harris 45
Trump 44

https://ajc-isabetai.s3.amazonaws.com/polls/poll-nov-2019-crosstabs.pdf
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Grumpier Than Thou
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2019, 07:39:54 AM »

I'm going to choose to....not believe this
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2019, 07:45:50 AM »

Their sample has HRC winning GA in the "2016 vote" section, so they're probably over a bit for the Ds
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skbl17
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2019, 07:49:06 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 07:52:50 AM by skbl17 »

Just for fun, I went back and looked at U[sic]GA*'s polling record.

2016: No polling. (Final result: Trump+5)

2018: Tie, Kemp+2, Tie (Final result: Kemp+1.3)

538 says that UGA has a R+0.4 bias and a B/C rating, but with only two races analyzed.

I'm just glad we're getting Georgia polls. That said, even if this sample is a tad D-leaning, it does point to Georgia being quite competitive in 2020; none of this "Likely/Safe R" business.

* Sorry, I'm a GT alum, so I had to.
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2019, 07:54:24 AM »

Poll has trump approval at 44-54, seems like itís off the mark. Reminds me of all the pre 2018 election polls that had trump approval in the mid 40ís and then Election Day came and trump approval was 51% in Florida, 52% in Georgia and 53% in Ohio, all the polls massively underestimated trump approval in a bunch of states. Seems like polls have same issue today.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2019, 08:17:37 AM »

This is almost certainly too D-friendly, but it doesnít change the fact that this state is a ticking time bomb for the GOP and Republican overconfidence about GA is just as unwarranted as Democratic overconfidence about PA in 2016. Itíll be "too inelastic" until itís not.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #6 on: November 13, 2019, 08:53:20 AM »

A wave can indeed happen, the GOP Senate is toast
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Skye
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« Reply #7 on: November 13, 2019, 09:04:52 AM »

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.
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LAKISYLVANIA
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« Reply #8 on: November 13, 2019, 09:08:30 AM »

Too D-friendly, but shows that GA can be quite competitive.
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slothdem
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« Reply #9 on: November 13, 2019, 09:10:55 AM »

This is almost certainly too D-friendly, but it doesnít change the fact that this state is a ticking time bomb for the GOP and Republican overconfidence about GA is just as unwarranted as Democratic overconfidence about PA in 2016. Itíll be "too inelastic" until itís not.

To be fair, Georgia is "inelastic." But the people who are showing up at the polls are different from who they were years ago. Of course there were substantial swings in suburban Atlanta in 2016, you don't get the results in GA06 and GA07 without persuasion, but as a whole the state is moving to the Left for the same reason why Virginia did a decade earlier. The suburban swing voters coming over is bolstered by the fact that every day more people of color (as well as young educated white liberals) move to metro Atlanta and some white oldster kicks it.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #10 on: November 13, 2019, 09:18:07 AM »

Just for fun, I went back and looked at U[sic]GA*'s polling record.

2016: No polling. (Final result: Trump+5)

2018: Tie, Kemp+2, Tie (Final result: Kemp+1.3)

538 says that UGA has a R+0.4 bias and a B/C rating, but with only two races analyzed.

I'm just glad we're getting Georgia polls. That said, even if this sample is a tad D-leaning, it does point to Georgia being quite competitive in 2020; none of this "Likely/Safe R" business.

* Sorry, I'm a GT alum, so I had to.

Given how rapidly things have been changing in GA, the state may yet surprise next year. While UGA polls do not have a long track record, what they have done recently, as you point out, was actually almost spot on so... fingers crossed.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #11 on: November 13, 2019, 09:30:05 AM »

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.

61% HuhHuh? lol

Even in SF college educated folks are only 55% of the population. Itís just insane
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RI
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« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2019, 09:54:44 AM »

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.

2016 was 51% per exit polls.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2019, 10:04:19 AM »

GA is a toss-up. If Abrams had presidential turnout from voters under 45 she would have won with no run-off.

The Pres nominee doesn't even need to clear 50, just beat Trump. I expect a lot of revisionist history from the Likely/Safe R GA crew on Election Night.
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Pollster
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« Reply #14 on: November 13, 2019, 10:06:15 AM »

This poll is 38% non-college/61% college (2018 exit polls in GA were 67% non-college/33% college).
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #15 on: November 13, 2019, 10:13:02 AM »

61% college grads is a bit too much, especially for a Southern state, but these polls seem credible.  If even Buttigieg is ahead in the South, Trump is in trouble.
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DrScholl
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« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2019, 10:20:59 AM »

Apparently the 2018 election results have been forgotten by many people. All of those races being decided by single digits was a sneak preview of what is coming.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2019, 10:27:30 AM »

Trump should be leadding by now, if according to SN, that he will make a comeback in states like GA. The fact, that he still trails, in GA, is trouble. If the economy is so good, like SN says it is.
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tagimaucia
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« Reply #18 on: November 13, 2019, 10:38:44 AM »

on the one hand, the 61% college educated figure is crazy and wrong.

on the other hand, if you believe catalist's data from 2018, which i think is based on the actual voter file, kemp won non-college voters by 2% and abrams won college voters by 1%, so barely a difference (there's a lot of non-white non-college folks in georgia and they dislike trump/republicans *even more* than their white counterparts dislike democrats). so i'm not sure that the education weighting concerns are as salient here as they would be somewhere like michigan or wisconsin? also this same poll was only off by 1 point in the 2018 governor's race-- i'm not sure what their longer term track record is though.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #19 on: November 13, 2019, 10:48:37 AM »

I want to believe... obviously an outlier, but Georgia will be competitive, especially with Joe Biden.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #20 on: November 13, 2019, 10:50:38 AM »
« Edited: November 13, 2019, 10:57:50 AM by President Griffin »

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.

Depends on how they're counting. In 2016, exit polls showed 50% with a bachelor's or higher, but 2018 was only 33%. Those same exit polls showed a 12-point education gap in 2016 and a 23-point one in 2018. There's definitely a possibility that both the shares and support levels of educated/non-educated are incorrect - especially since prior to 2016, GA's education gap was smaller (and even just a few years ago, reversed; Dems did better with non-college educated than college educated).

The poll number is definitely off (assuming they're not including associate degrees, some college, etc), but - assuming 2018 education gap (23 points) is more reflective of 2020 & the 2016 % of college graduates (50%) is more reflective than 2018 - the difference would be around 5 points.  

So Biden +3, Sanders -1, Warren/Buttigieg -2, Harris -4, etc.

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QAnonKelly
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« Reply #21 on: November 13, 2019, 11:08:13 AM »

This is an outlier bc it over samples college grads. This is more like the margin weíll see in ten years.
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Xing
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« Reply #22 on: November 13, 2019, 11:24:17 AM »

Definitely too D-friendly, but people who think GA isn't at least competitive (not more than Lean R) are sticking their heads in the sand.
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andjey
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« Reply #23 on: November 13, 2019, 12:21:42 PM »

I'm going to choose to....not believe this
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Annatar
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« Reply #24 on: November 13, 2019, 12:39:22 PM »

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.

Depends on how they're counting. In 2016, exit polls showed 50% with a bachelor's or higher, but 2018 was only 33%. Those same exit polls showed a 12-point education gap in 2016 and a 23-point one in 2018. There's definitely a possibility that both the shares and support levels of educated/non-educated are incorrect - especially since prior to 2016, GA's education gap was smaller (and even just a few years ago, reversed; Dems did better with non-college educated than college educated).

The poll number is definitely off (assuming they're not including associate degrees, some college, etc), but - assuming 2018 education gap (23 points) is more reflective of 2020 & the 2016 % of college graduates (50%) is more reflective than 2018 - the difference would be around 5 points.  

So Biden +3, Sanders -1, Warren/Buttigieg -2, Harris -4, etc.



The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.
 
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