GA-UGA: Biden +8, Sanders +4, Warren/Buttigieg +3, Harris +1

[Adam Griffin]

61% college grads? That seems a tad too high.

Depends on how they're counting. In 2016, exit polls showed 50% with a bachelor's or higher, but 2018 was only 33%. Those same exit polls showed a 12-point education gap in 2016 and a 23-point one in 2018. There's definitely a possibility that both the shares and support levels of educated/non-educated are incorrect - especially since prior to 2016, GA's education gap was smaller (and even just a few years ago, reversed; Dems did better with non-college educated than college educated).

The poll number is definitely off (assuming they're not including associate degrees, some college, etc), but - assuming 2018 education gap (23 points) is more reflective of 2020 & the 2016 % of college graduates (50%) is more reflective than 2018 - the difference would be around 5 points.  

So Biden +3, Sanders -1, Warren/Buttigieg -2, Harris -4, etc.

[Adam Griffin]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

[Adam Griffin]

The exit polls oversampled educated voters in 2016, they admitted that and rebalanced things for 2018.

The real figures for 2020 likely will be closer to 2016 exit poll figures than 2018 figures. First, there's a pretty solid track record of college graduates making up more than 40-45% of the electorate in a presidential year that goes back well beyond 2016 (irrespective of past debates over whether "working class" people were undersampled). Also, there are age discrepancies at work that naturally reduce the percentage of midterm voters who are college grads.

Color me skeptical that midterm turnout differentials benefit non-college educated voters. I recall 538 finding that the opposite is in fact true.



It seems this trend held true in 2018, as at least per the Fox / University of Chicago Exits had 42% of the electorate being college-educated. Given past trends, it seems likely 2020's electorate will be slightly less college-educated than 2018's. 

Admittedly there is a lot of conflicting data surrounding the education of voters at-large, but the chart above would suggest that there's a relatively small difference between the educational attainment of voters and non-voters, which contradicts a lot of other observations made via exit polls, polling and surveys in general.