2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[Mr.Phips]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.

Nah, Dems need to go for the 8-0 sweep. Especially if Republicans are going to go nuts in other states.

I would tend to agree if Republicans are going to be cracking Nashville and Kansas City.  What they can do is substitute white Dems for Republicans in the black majority MD-04 and MD-07 in order to keep those seats majority black while also reducing their Dem performance (although they would still be safer than safe Dem).

[Mr.Phips]

Here is my attempt at a map that the Dems could theoretically draw while still keeping most of their demands and being an improvement in terms of "prettyness" over the previous map?



MD-01: 62-38 Trump, R+12
MD-02: 57-43 Clinton, D+5
MD-03: 83-17 Clinton (VAP: 38% white, 37% black, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian), D+29
MD-04: 93-7 Clinton (VAP: 59% black, 21% white, 16% Hispanic), D+40
MD-05: 56-44 Clinton (VAP: 68% white, 24% black), D+4
MD-06: 58-42 Clinton, D+5
MD-07: 75-25 Clinton (VAP: 52% black, 41% white) D+25
MD-08: 60-40 Clinton (VAP: 63% white, 18% black, 11% Asian) D+7

So basically incumbents get mostly similar districts to what they represent now minus MD-03, while there is also a 3rd minority coalition district (a 3rd black district can easily be done, but the one who would become black majority is MD-05 which I don't think would happen because of seniority? Hoyer does end up in a district that could theoretically flip in an R wave instead I suppose though

No way should the 3rd and 4th be over 80% Clinton.  That packs too many Dem votes.

[Mr.Phips]

I think there's a decent shot that Sarbanes might give up his bizarre "I want to be in all media markets" fixation; can't speak to the others. The hardest to ignore will be Steny Hoyer of course.

Hoyer is very likely retiring in 2022.