2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 09:12:08 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  General Politics
  Political Geography & Demographics (Moderators: muon2, 15 Down, 35 To Go)
  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland
« previous next »
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 15
Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland  (Read 22625 times)
Oryxslayer
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,725


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #25 on: May 06, 2020, 05:37:17 PM »

It seems obvious Sarbanes is playing to be Cardins heir, I mean they live a few miles from each other. That scenario allows one to theoretically ignore even the most basic qualifications for protection, since he would only be in his new district for one term. This is why his seat is most ideal to become the third AA seat if it emerges, since the third seat would naturally need to cross between the media markets, so Sarbanes still keeps his wide constituent outreach for two years.
Logged
Roll Roons
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,985
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #26 on: June 29, 2020, 06:23:16 PM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.
Logged
Nyvin
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,623
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #27 on: June 29, 2020, 09:15:09 PM »

I see the chances of Carroll County getting put into MD-6 as exactly zero.   Carroll County is way more connected to Baltimore than Frederick and the MD Dems have no interests in making MD-6 safe R (nor any reason to).

Also if Hoyer is gone there is literally no chance that only 2 AA majority seats are made, it will definitely be three.

This is a map I made that really just tries to be fair and not look awful.   6D-1R-1s is probably the best way to describe this map.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/76b1fe12-43e7-4677-9ba0-0a18e56bf9f5

Logged
Gass3268
Moderators
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 27,478
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #28 on: June 30, 2020, 01:09:17 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.

Nah, Dems need to go for the 8-0 sweep. Especially if Republicans are going to go nuts in other states.
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #29 on: June 30, 2020, 06:31:50 AM »

https://davesredistricting.org/join/f447017d-dbb7-4c7b-926a-e249174ffce7

Let's clean up this mess.

MD-01: Doesn't change significantly. Still includes the entire Eastern Shore, and the northern fringes of Baltimore and Carroll counties, along the PA border. Also adds all of Harford.  Andy Harris doesn't live here, but it includes almost all of his current territory and would likely run. Safe R.

MD-02: The swingiest district on the map, including most of Baltimore's Northern and Eastern suburbs and the Northeastern part of Anne Arundel. A pure tossup district on paper, but a strong incumbent from either party could potentially become entrenched. Ruppersberger can run here, but it's much tougher territory than his current district, and he could go down in a Biden midterm. Tossup.

MD-03: Not perfect, but a hell of a lot better than the current version. It still stretches from the DC suburbs in Montgomery County, the more Democratic eastern half of Howard (including Columbia and Ellicott City), the northwest part of Anne Arundel (which includes BWI), and Baltimore's southwest suburbs. Sarbanes doesn't live here, but it overlaps significantly with his current monstrosity, and he would likely run here. Safe D.

MD-04: Black-majority seat contained almost entirely within PG, with a sliver of Montgomery. Anthony Brown can have this as a reward for gifting the state one of the greatest governors in the country. Safe D.

MD-05: Steny Hoyer's turf. It still includes all of Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's, along with part of PG (including Bowie), but is now pushed further into Anne Arundel to include Annapolis. Marginally less Democratic than his current seat, but definitely not enough to threaten him. Safe D.

MD-06: Western Maryland gets a Safe R seat again. In addition to all of strongly Republican Garrett, Allegany and Washington, this seat takes in R-leaning Frederick, most of solidly Republican Carroll, the western half of Howard (more Republican than the eastern part), and the outer part of MoCo. A new Republican from Western Maryland would likely run and win here. Safe R.

MD-07: Another black-majority seat that includes all of Baltimore City and some its western suburbs. Kweisi Mfume has this for as long as he wants. Safe D.

MD-08: Entirely within Montgomery County, unlike the current gerrymandered mess that combines the liberal DC suburbs with conservative exurban and rural territory in Frederick and Carroll. This district used to elect Connie Morella, a Republican who makes Charlie Baker look like Ted Cruz, but those days are sadly long gone. It is majority white, but has growing Hispanic and Asian populations. David Trone and Jamie Raskin both represent a good chunk of this district, and though Raskin technically lives in the 4th, he is more liberal and would probably be favored in a primary. Either way, the seat is not coming back to Republicans for a long, long time. Safe D.

5D-2R-1T. I think this would be a better reflector of the state's partisanship than the current map.

Nah, Dems need to go for the 8-0 sweep. Especially if Republicans are going to go nuts in other states.

I would tend to agree if Republicans are going to be cracking Nashville and Kansas City.  What they can do is substitute white Dems for Republicans in the black majority MD-04 and MD-07 in order to keep those seats majority black while also reducing their Dem performance (although they would still be safer than safe Dem).
Logged
Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,065
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #30 on: June 30, 2020, 07:40:01 AM »

I mean, Roll Roons was clearly trying to draw a fair map.

That said, I don't like how his 2nd district hops over the water--IMO the 7th kind of overpacks the Black community in Baltimore. IMO the 7th should go east (or north or south) and then the Western suburbs should go in the 2nd.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #31 on: June 30, 2020, 07:44:23 AM »

Here is my attempt at a map that the Dems could theoretically draw while still keeping most of their demands and being an improvement in terms of "prettyness" over the previous map?



MD-01: 62-38 Trump, R+12
MD-02: 57-43 Clinton, D+5
MD-03: 83-17 Clinton (VAP: 38% white, 37% black, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian), D+29
MD-04: 93-7 Clinton (VAP: 59% black, 21% white, 16% Hispanic), D+40
MD-05: 56-44 Clinton (VAP: 68% white, 24% black), D+4
MD-06: 58-42 Clinton, D+5
MD-07: 75-25 Clinton (VAP: 52% black, 41% white) D+25
MD-08: 60-40 Clinton (VAP: 63% white, 18% black, 11% Asian) D+7

So basically incumbents get mostly similar districts to what they represent now minus MD-03, while there is also a 3rd minority coalition district (a 3rd black district can easily be done, but the one who would become black majority is MD-05 which I don't think would happen because of seniority? Hoyer does end up in a district that could theoretically flip in an R wave instead I suppose though
Logged
Mr.Phips
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,543


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #32 on: June 30, 2020, 07:46:08 AM »

Here is my attempt at a map that the Dems could theoretically draw while still keeping most of their demands and being an improvement in terms of "prettyness" over the previous map?



MD-01: 62-38 Trump, R+12
MD-02: 57-43 Clinton, D+5
MD-03: 83-17 Clinton (VAP: 38% white, 37% black, 14% Hispanic, 11% Asian), D+29
MD-04: 93-7 Clinton (VAP: 59% black, 21% white, 16% Hispanic), D+40
MD-05: 56-44 Clinton (VAP: 68% white, 24% black), D+4
MD-06: 58-42 Clinton, D+5
MD-07: 75-25 Clinton (VAP: 52% black, 41% white) D+25
MD-08: 60-40 Clinton (VAP: 63% white, 18% black, 11% Asian) D+7

So basically incumbents get mostly similar districts to what they represent now minus MD-03, while there is also a 3rd minority coalition district (a 3rd black district can easily be done, but the one who would become black majority is MD-05 which I don't think would happen because of seniority? Hoyer does end up in a district that could theoretically flip in an R wave instead I suppose though

No way should the 3rd and 4th be over 80% Clinton.  That packs too many Dem votes.
Logged
Lognog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,399
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #33 on: July 16, 2020, 07:42:35 PM »

https://www.marylandmatters.org/2020/07/16/are-md-s-congressional-incumbents-hoarding-cash-for-post-redistricting-2022-election/

What’s stopping MD dems from protecting incumbents?

They can easily override hogan veto

Or are they preparing to run for gov in 2022 or senate in 2024 if Cardin retires
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #34 on: July 16, 2020, 08:59:16 PM »

Aren’t some of the whiter neighborhoods in Prince George’s County Hoyer strongholds?
Logged
SevenEleven
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,588


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #35 on: July 16, 2020, 10:01:49 PM »

Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.
Logged
Lognog
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,399
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #36 on: July 16, 2020, 11:22:44 PM »

Aren’t some of the whiter neighborhoods in Prince George’s County Hoyer strongholds?

PG is a stronghold for any dem on the ballot
Logged
I’m not Stu
ERM64man
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,747


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #37 on: July 16, 2020, 11:39:01 PM »

Aren’t some of the whiter neighborhoods in Prince George’s County Hoyer strongholds?

PG is a stronghold for any dem on the ballot
I meant the primary. Without them, wouldn’t he be vulnerable to losing a primary?
Logged
SevenEleven
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,588


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #38 on: July 16, 2020, 11:47:53 PM »

Aren’t some of the whiter neighborhoods in Prince George’s County Hoyer strongholds?

PG is a stronghold for any dem on the ballot
I meant the primary. Without them, wouldn’t he be vulnerable to losing a primary?

People overrate racial voting in primaries with incumbents. Do a good job and you'll be fine.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #39 on: July 17, 2020, 12:33:23 AM »

Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.


Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.
Logged
SevenEleven
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,588


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #40 on: July 17, 2020, 01:32:33 AM »
« Edited: July 17, 2020, 01:36:37 AM by Sev »

Quote from:  link=topic=344813.msg7463587#msg7463587 date=1594964003 uid=16104
Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.


Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.

This map has three AA districts. The Beltway district is like 53% AA. I was just messing around when I realized that and decided to go from there. I cut Baltimore to maintain about the same percentage of AAs as the current district, but I don't think that's necessarily needed for the district to "perform". Later I'll post my other map where I wasn't messing around with the Beltway like this.
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #41 on: July 17, 2020, 02:05:45 AM »

Quote from:  link=topic=344813.msg7463587#msg7463587 date=1594964003 uid=16104
Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.


Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.

This map has three AA districts. The Beltway district is like 53% AA. I was just messing around when I realized that and decided to go from there.

Still, why not do something like this?

Logged
SevenEleven
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,588


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #42 on: July 17, 2020, 02:19:58 AM »

Quote from:  link=topic=344813.msg7463587#msg7463587 date=1594964003 uid=16104
Maryland Fair Map



Note: I actually hate this map, especially the beltway district.


Except for the beltway district, this is a great map but that's an abomination. You should go for three AA VRA districts in MD and pairing Bethesda with PG County is unhelpful in that. Basically, I would keep your 1st, 2nd, 6th, and 7th districts unchanged and reconfigure the 3rd, 4th, 5th, 8th districts to be more compact. I would consider shifting Baltimore borders a bit as well to keep the city intact and have the 2nd take in more of Baltimore County to compensate, but that's subjective.

This map has three AA districts. The Beltway district is like 53% AA. I was just messing around when I realized that and decided to go from there.

Still, why not do something like this?



Haha, that's almost identical to my actual map aside from the Baltimore cut. And no PG-Montgomery cut.
Logged
Former President tack50
tack50
Atlas Politician
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,891
Spain


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #43 on: July 18, 2020, 07:22:25 AM »

Actually now that I think about it, here is an improvement over the previous map. This is my attempt at an 8-0 that could be passed by Dems. Though really this is more like 7-0-1 as there still is one swing district



MD-01: Clinton+4, EVEN
MD-02: Clinton+11, D+4
MD-03: Clinton+26, D+1
MD-04: Clinton+76, D+37 (53% black)
MD-05: Clinton+34, D+18 (49% black)
MD-06: Clinton+14, D+5
MD-07: Clinton+34, D+19 (51% black)
MD-08: Clinton+19, D+7

All districts have voted for Clinton and have a D PVI (even MD-01 is technically like D+0.001). And all but 1 voted Clinton by double digits. And there are 3 black majority districts. (ok, the 5th is technically only 49% black but a black Dem would almost certainly win there)
Logged
Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,065
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #44 on: July 18, 2020, 11:50:15 AM »

Behold!




Link here
Logged
Starry Eyed Jagaloon
Blairite
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,853
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #45 on: July 18, 2020, 12:41:42 PM »

Decided to ty my hand at 8-0. Not the ugliest map in the world, but not the best and there are only two VRA seats:

Logged
cvparty
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #46 on: July 18, 2020, 11:55:53 PM »

here’s my fair map drawn without partisan data, i tried to balance preserving metro areas, COIs and compactness. my map happens to be similar to sol's once again lol...we must be doing something right

MD-01: McCain +16 | Romney +16 | Trump +22
MD-02: Obama +20 | Obama +20 | Clinton +27
MD-03: Obama +9 | Obama +11 | Clinton +16
MD-04: Obama +71 | Obama +74 | Clinton +75
MD-05: Obama +41 | Obama +43 | Clinton +36
MD-06: McCain +9 | Romney +12 | Trump +14
MD-07: Obama +57 | Obama +61 | Clinton +52
MD-08: Obama +43 | Obama +43 | Clinton +55
Logged
warandwar
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 863
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #47 on: July 19, 2020, 12:46:14 AM »

what's the logic with linking bmore with Dundalk and Towson? Feel like going West and South is more COI.
Logged
cvparty
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,100
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #48 on: July 19, 2020, 01:17:59 AM »

what's the logic with linking bmore with Dundalk and Towson? Feel like going West and South is more COI.
towson isn't in the baltimore district. unless you're talking about north baltimore going in CD2; that was done for demographic reasons (income, education levels are similar to the suburbs)
dundalk/essex are relatively blue collar, so putting those suburbs with baltimore also makes sense from an income/education standpoint. putting baltimore with woodlawn/randallstown would kind of be packing black voters, and it would force CD2 to encircle baltimore (which would be awkward and not compact) or CD3 to cross the patapsco river (also awkward, and only contiguous by bridge).

in a vacuum, yes going west of baltimore wouldn't be wrong, but in a congressional map it's about balancing all 8 CDs because population equality forces you to balance many factors and make compromises
Logged
Sol
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,065
Bosnia and Herzegovina


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #49 on: July 19, 2020, 09:49:24 AM »

what's the logic with linking bmore with Dundalk and Towson? Feel like going West and South is more COI.

Similarly to cvparty, I didn't want to pack Black voters into the Baltimore district. I also figured that the Eastern Baltimore suburbs were probably the best CoI fit with with the 1st district (most like Harford County). The 1st can't take in all of the eastern shore of Baltco, so that area needs to go into either the city or county district; I picked the city since it looks more compact. Plus I believe Dundalk has a fair amount in common with the White eastern neighborhoods.
Logged
Pages: 1 [2] 3 4 5 6 7 ... 15  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.069 seconds with 12 queries.