2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[Antonio the Sixth]

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

There is some VRA issues with this map. I’m going pretty sure I read MD-04 is a African American pack and MD-06 dilutes the African American vote by what it grabs outside of Baltimore City.

tbf, in an ideal world we wouldn't need the VRA either, but that's another can of worms

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

There is some VRA issues with this map. I’m going pretty sure I read MD-04 is a African American pack and MD-06 dilutes the African American vote by what it grabs outside of Baltimore City.

I don't think there's a problem with MD-06's territory here? It's still clearly majority or very strongly plurality black...

[Sol]

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

There is some VRA issues with this map. I’m going pretty sure I read MD-04 is a African American pack and MD-06 dilutes the African American vote by what it grabs outside of Baltimore City.

Do you have a link? MD-04 is based in the least Black part of PG County--plus it turns MD-05 into a Black-influence seat.

[Gass3268]

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

There is some VRA issues with this map. I’m going pretty sure I read MD-04 is a African American pack and MD-06 dilutes the African American vote by what it grabs outside of Baltimore City.

Do you have a link? MD-04 is based in the least Black part of PG County--plus it turns MD-05 into a Black-influence seat.

Unfortunately I can't find it. I saw it over a week ago.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I made MD-01 as black as possible, to the point it's genuinely a black influence seat. There are three black majority districts (7, 3, and 4). County splits have been limited to the minimum, with the exception of the efforts taken to make  MD-01 D-leaning. Every district voted Biden by at least 9.6 points.
Here's the DRA link

[Spectator]

Pretty incredible how blue Maryland has gotten in that you don’t even need to gerrymander to make MD-06 a safe D seat. Frederick County should be left whole and then give the leftovers to Montgomery.

[lfromnj]

Pretty incredible how blue Maryland has gotten in that you don’t even need to gerrymander to make MD-06 a safe D seat. Frederick County should be left whole and then give the leftovers to Montgomery.

More like Likely D?

It would be like Biden +7 right?

[Spectator]

Pretty incredible how blue Maryland has gotten in that you don’t even need to gerrymander to make MD-06 a safe D seat. Frederick County should be left whole and then give the leftovers to Montgomery.

More like Likely D?

It would be like Biden +7 right?

Depends on what precincts you draw in from Montco. It could be anywhere from Biden +6 to Biden +20. I’m assuming in this drawing that you keep Frederick, Garrett, Washington, and Allegany whole.

MD-08 can recede to being wholly within Montco too, even in a 8D-0R map. Just give the bluest precincts along Tacoma Park to MD-06.

MD-01 I would keep it similar to Punxsutawney Phil’s but cut out Cecil County. MD-07 can drop the black precincts in western Baltimore County  to one of Sarbanes’ or Rupperberger’s benefits and pick up the bright red part of Anne Arundel on the water front to ease pressure off of Hoyer, Sarbanes, and Rupperberger.

[If my soul was made of stone]

My shot at a VRA-compliant 8-0:



Every district is at least Biden +14. The Bay is only crossed once, via the Bay Bridge, and about half the counties in the state are kept whole.

Pretty incredible how blue Maryland has gotten in that you don’t even need to gerrymander to make MD-06 a safe D seat. Frederick County should be left whole and then give the leftovers to Montgomery.

More like Likely D?

It would be like Biden +7 right?

With Frederick and all parts west kept whole ("GAWF", as a fifth-grade teacher called those counties), you can draw a district where Trump 2020 is kept below 40% if you're willing to bacon out to Bethesda. A more compact seat simply drawing inwards towards Germantown will be about Biden +10.

[BoiseBoy]

Four maps from the General Assembly Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission, posted today:

https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/Other/Redistricting/webpage-110921.pdf

[Oryxslayer]

Four maps from the General Assembly Legislative Redistricting Advisory Commission, posted today:

https://mgaleg.maryland.gov/Other/Redistricting/webpage-110921.pdf

Two 8-0's, two 7-1's.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Draft concepts 2 and 3 seem like the Dem gerries  where MD-1 is made into a Biden seat, whereas 1 and 4 still look like Dem gerries but preserve MD-1 as an R leaning district.

I was lowkey hoping they'd try and solve the absolute mess around Baltimore a bit more, but oh well, screw Sarbanes.

[Gass3268]

#3 is my favorite. Gets rid of Harris and is cleaner than the current map.

[politicallefty]

Looks like the Sarbanes monstrosity will finally be gone, the main reason why those with little political knowledge would point to Maryland as the epitome of extreme gerrymandering. Obviously, most of us here know why Maryland has such hideous lines. It's about time.

If I had to guess based on those maps, it'll be #3. It's cleaner and it's 8-0. It also looks like the only of the maps that keeps Aberdeen Proving Ground and Fort Meade in the same district, a high priority for Dutch Ruppersberger. However, considering that they have other maps that don't keep the two together, I wonder if he's considering retiring soon.

[Nyvin]

The MD-1 on map 3 is Biden+7.7%,  Harris might be able to survive in that for 2022, but 2024 he'd be gone.

Map 2 has it at like Biden+0.3%

[Devils30]

Hopefully they adjust map 3 and make MD-1 Biden +12.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/AveryTheComrade/status/1458310341071237122?s=20

Good tweet. Sarbanes with his media-markets must be f*ked

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The MD-1 on map 3 is Biden+7.7%,  Harris might be able to survive in that for 2022, but 2024 he'd be gone.

Map 2 has it at like Biden+0.3%

Nope, Harris is doomed. He's too right wing and too infamous to be elected in a Biden district. Another republican could win those but it won't be him

[Roll Roons]

The MD-1 on map 3 is Biden+7.7%,  Harris might be able to survive in that for 2022, but 2024 he'd be gone.

Map 2 has it at like Biden+0.3%

Nope, Harris is doomed. He's too right wing and too infamous to be elected in a Biden district. Another republican could win those but it won't be him

Eh, it's possible that the national environment saves him in 2022 if it's a narrow Biden district. But he'd be done in 2024 for sure.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The MD-1 on map 3 is Biden+7.7%,  Harris might be able to survive in that for 2022, but 2024 he'd be gone.

Map 2 has it at like Biden+0.3%

Nope, Harris is doomed. He's too right wing and too infamous to be elected in a Biden district. Another republican could win those but it won't be him

Eh, it's possible that the national environment saves him in 2022 if it's a narrow Biden district. But he'd be done in 2024 for sure.

Yeah, we don't know what the climate will be like for the 2022 elections at all. We probably won't know for good until the final five or so months before Election Day.
Harris might still make it. We'll see.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1463232239987220498?s=20

[Roll Roons]

Harris would probably lose in 2024. He's way too far right for a swing district.

[Skill and Chance]

Wonder if Kratovil would want it back?  Although he's a state judge now and in Maryland, they only have to worry about retention elections once confirmed, so he could practically serve for life. 

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Harris would probably lose in 2024. He's way too far right for a swing district.

I could see him rather easily losing in 2022 under these lines if he has a Dem opponent who is good enough. Eyeballing it - that district goes into PG County, doesn't it?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Here's a DRA reproduction of that MD-01
It voted for Biden by 1,604 votes.