2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Maryland

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/2fe11b07-a9ac-402d-b397-d80a35b7fa6f

Here's something I made after the census data. It's a lot neater than the current map, which isn't hard to do.

There are two strong R seats - one based on the Eastern Shore and one in Western Maryland that also includes the outer part of MoCo. In 2016, Trump won the former by 21 and the latter by 18, so they should be alright. There's also a swing district in the Baltimore suburbs that Hillary only won by less than 2 points. Though it likely shifted to Biden substantially, Hogan got nearly 70% there.

This works pretty well as a proportional-fair map.

[GALeftist]

Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander?  I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.

They do. Anything less than 7-1 is obviously a nonstarter. I think the reason that the current map isn't 8-0 is annoying incumbents with annoying requests (e.g. one wanted to be in the DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis media markets to boost a potential future statewide run) but my money is on 8-0 after redistricting.

[patzer]

Indeed, it’d be utterly idiotic for them to do anything other than an 8-0

[BoiseBoy]

DRA now has 2020 data for Maryland. Here is how the proposed MD map would perform under 2020 numbers:



MD-01: Biden +75.0
MD-02: Biden +51.8
MD-03: Biden +58.5
MD-04: Biden +54.4
MD-05: Biden +31.6
MD-06: Biden +31.1
MD-07: Trump +7.7
MD-08: Trump +14

[Thunder98 🇮🇱 🤝 🇵🇸]

Edit: Made a new 8-0 D map

Here is a better 8-0 MD map, all seats are safe D with the new 2020 Prez data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5729535a-39ad-4eba-a1ef-a4e9099335f0

[ProgressiveModerate]

My attempt at an 8D-0R map that actually cleans up the current map a lot. 3 VRA black seats (2, 4, and 5). Obv a lot of incumbents would be unhappy, but a clean 8-0 map is possible.

This map holds for 2016 though the 1rst district is only Clinton + 1 (in 2020 is was Biden + 12 meaning it would be one of the fastest trending D districts nationally).

The biggest challenge is prolly not overpacking D voters into black VRA seats, espcially in the Baltimore area

[politicallefty]

Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander?  I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.

They do. Anything less than 7-1 is obviously a nonstarter. I think the reason that the current map isn't 8-0 is annoying incumbents with annoying requests (e.g. one wanted to be in the DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis media markets to boost a potential future statewide run) but my money is on 8-0 after redistricting.

I think that was largely moot in the current map in terms of MD-03. Unless he's planning a gubernatorial run, John Sarbanes is probably a lifer in the House. MD-02 has its shape because Dutch Ruppersberger wants multiple military bases in his district that don't naturally fit together. In the last redistricting, Donna Edwards didn't get the district she would have liked. She was low in seniority, something that is now true of most of the MD delegation. Hoyer will get whatever he wants for as long as he wants to remain in Congress (the same is true of Ruppersberger).

I do think MD Dems will go for 8-0. Most maps have MD-01 crossing the Chesapeake, but Baltimore is another option. There are a number of parochial interests in Maryland, but some will be ignored for the greater good. Maryland is rock-solid Democratic and trending even moreso. They can push their luck, especially considering Biden won the state by 33%.

[Oryxslayer]

Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander?  I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.

They do. Anything less than 7-1 is obviously a nonstarter. I think the reason that the current map isn't 8-0 is annoying incumbents with annoying requests (e.g. one wanted to be in the DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis media markets to boost a potential future statewide run) but my money is on 8-0 after redistricting.

I think that was largely moot in the current map in terms of MD-03. Unless he's planning a gubernatorial run, John Sarbanes is probably a lifer in the House. MD-02 has its shape because Dutch Ruppersberger wants multiple military bases in his district that don't naturally fit together. In the last redistricting, Donna Edwards didn't get the district she would have liked. She was low in seniority, something that is now true of most of the MD delegation. Hoyer will get whatever he wants for as long as he wants to remain in Congress (the same is true of Ruppersberger).

I do think MD Dems will go for 8-0. Most maps have MD-01 crossing the Chesapeake, but Baltimore is another option. There are a number of parochial interests in Maryland, but some will be ignored for the greater good. Maryland is rock-solid Democratic and trending even moreso. They can push their luck, especially considering Biden won the state by 33%.

Sarbanes' parochialism is weird. As noted, he wanted a tentacle that touched all the metro areas so that he could appear on all the local media stations and build a brand for a statewide run. Except that run never happened even though there was a perfectly good opportunity in 2016 and a decent one in 2018. This leaves one with three possible conclusions, all which likely allow the district to drastically change shape - as long as he still lives in the seat of course.

1) He's decided to stay in Congress so there is no need for any wider appeal.

2) He's gonna run for one of the open offices in 2022, which means the seat is open and flexible.

3) He is understood among the party to be Cardin's heir designate. He therefore does not need the encompassing district because the mass of statewide endorsements and support he will automatically receive in 2024, or whenever the seat opens, will be stronger than any marginal initial name recognition.

[Stuart98]

8-0 with three majority black seats plus a Montgomery majmin seat and all D incumbents have their own districts:

[Gass3268]

DRA now has 2020 data for Maryland. Here is how the proposed MD map would perform under 2020 numbers:



MD-01: Biden +75.0
MD-02: Biden +51.8
MD-03: Biden +58.5
MD-04: Biden +54.4
MD-05: Biden +31.6
MD-06: Biden +31.1
MD-07: Trump +7.7
MD-08: Trump +14

Given the trends in up county Montgomery Country and Fredrick County, this MD-07 would probably be competative by the end of the decade.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/199bfc96-abb9-4fd0-8954-60196f67d36b
thoughts on this quick and dirty 8D-0R?

[Stuart98]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/199bfc96-abb9-4fd0-8954-60196f67d36b
thoughts on this quick and dirty 8R-0D?

Not 8R-0D in gov 2018, I feel lied to.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/199bfc96-abb9-4fd0-8954-60196f67d36b
thoughts on this quick and dirty 8R-0D?

Not 8R-0D in gov 2018, I feel lied to.

oof sorry for the typo

[Crumpets]

Edit: Made a new 8-0 D map

Here is a better 8-0 MD map, all seats are safe D with the new 2020 Prez data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5729535a-39ad-4eba-a1ef-a4e9099335f0

Imagine standing on the hill across the Potomac from Hancock, looking north, and being able to see four congressional districts in a space of just two miles in front of you.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Edit: Made a new 8-0 D map

Here is a better 8-0 MD map, all seats are safe D with the new 2020 Prez data.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/5729535a-39ad-4eba-a1ef-a4e9099335f0

Imagine standing on the hill across the Potomac from Hancock, looking north, and being able to see four congressional districts in a space of just two miles in front of you.

Still cleaner and less messy than the current map.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The current map has districts that violate road contiguity, fly in the face of county integrity, and leave the GOP with less seats than a natural map would provide them.
That has been remedied. My map has a majority of counties (specifically Allegany, Garrett, Charles, St. Mary's, Worcester, Wicomico, Somerset, Dorchester, Caroline, Talbot, Queen Anne's, Kent, Calvert, and Cecil) whole within a congressional district and produces a swing district in form of the 2nd, while keeping the 1st as a Republican leaning district. The 1st voted Trump by 21 points. The competitive 2nd district voted Trump by 1, but it is winnable for Democrats, very winnable, because Democrats tend to do better downballot. Unfortunately, to create these two districts, I had to split Hagerstown in 3, meaning it could not be wholly within the 3rd (which unifies the community of interest that is the DC border). I know, you are asking me, how could I possibly have kept that CoI together? It's because I'm good at what I do.

This map has other elements to it. For example I create a new black majority district taking in black precincts in Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Montgomery, Prince George's and Howard counties and Baltimore city. I also maintain the other two districts.

All seats on this map are road contigous. 6 lean Democratic, 1 leans Republican, and 1 is too even to really be considered a Republican district.
I feel glad that I have been able to make such a fair and cohesive map, with a total deviation of 249. This is what peak performance looks like.

What, you thought I was serious?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/26ca9d45-71f0-43ee-8578-5e85cf8e0d26

[Stuart98]

what fresh hell.

[Oryxslayer]

SNIP

This is the redistricting version of sarcasm, I love it.

[swf541]

SNIP

This is the redistricting version of sarcasm, I love it.

It's truly amazing and my poor city got chopped into 3 districts lol

[politicallefty]

I'll just say that any serious map will keep Fort Meade and Aberdeen Proving Ground in the same district for Dutch Ruppersberger. Democrats can easily do an 8-0 map, but some parochial interests will have to be respected. I'd say that's the biggest alongside protecting Hoyer from having a strong minority or progressive primary challenge.

[coloradocowboi]

Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander?  I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.

They do. Anything less than 7-1 is obviously a nonstarter. I think the reason that the current map isn't 8-0 is annoying incumbents with annoying requests (e.g. one wanted to be in the DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis media markets to boost a potential future statewide run) but my money is on 8-0 after redistricting.

I think that was largely moot in the current map in terms of MD-03. Unless he's planning a gubernatorial run, John Sarbanes is probably a lifer in the House. MD-02 has its shape because Dutch Ruppersberger wants multiple military bases in his district that don't naturally fit together. In the last redistricting, Donna Edwards didn't get the district she would have liked. She was low in seniority, something that is now true of most of the MD delegation. Hoyer will get whatever he wants for as long as he wants to remain in Congress (the same is true of Ruppersberger).

I do think MD Dems will go for 8-0. Most maps have MD-01 crossing the Chesapeake, but Baltimore is another option. There are a number of parochial interests in Maryland, but some will be ignored for the greater good. Maryland is rock-solid Democratic and trending even moreso. They can push their luck, especially considering Biden won the state by 33%.

Sarbanes' parochialism is weird. As noted, he wanted a tentacle that touched all the metro areas so that he could appear on all the local media stations and build a brand for a statewide run. Except that run never happened even though there was a perfectly good opportunity in 2016 and a decent one in 2018. This leaves one with three possible conclusions, all which likely allow the district to drastically change shape - as long as he still lives in the seat of course.

1) He's decided to stay in Congress so there is no need for any wider appeal.

2) He's gonna run for one of the open offices in 2022, which means the seat is open and flexible.

3) He is understood among the party to be Cardin's heir designate. He therefore does not need the encompassing district because the mass of statewide endorsements and support he will automatically receive in 2024, or whenever the seat opens, will be stronger than any marginal initial name recognition.

This is exactly why so many young, left-leaning voters sit out every single election. When one spoiled, privilege baby who used dad's name to parlay a run into Congress takes precedence over entire communities, your party isn't that democratic now is it?

I really hope that: A. Nobody gives a sh**t what Sarbanes wants and B. He doesn't just succeed Cardin without a fight. We need to be a pro-democracy party, and Maryland's maps rn reflect a straight up corrupt way of thinking.

[Non Swing Voter]

Do the Dems have any incentive at all to not do an 8-0 gerrymander?  I assume they have a veto proof majority on the state level.

They do. Anything less than 7-1 is obviously a nonstarter. I think the reason that the current map isn't 8-0 is annoying incumbents with annoying requests (e.g. one wanted to be in the DC, Baltimore, and Annapolis media markets to boost a potential future statewide run) but my money is on 8-0 after redistricting.

I think that was largely moot in the current map in terms of MD-03. Unless he's planning a gubernatorial run, John Sarbanes is probably a lifer in the House. MD-02 has its shape because Dutch Ruppersberger wants multiple military bases in his district that don't naturally fit together. In the last redistricting, Donna Edwards didn't get the district she would have liked. She was low in seniority, something that is now true of most of the MD delegation. Hoyer will get whatever he wants for as long as he wants to remain in Congress (the same is true of Ruppersberger).

I do think MD Dems will go for 8-0. Most maps have MD-01 crossing the Chesapeake, but Baltimore is another option. There are a number of parochial interests in Maryland, but some will be ignored for the greater good. Maryland is rock-solid Democratic and trending even moreso. They can push their luck, especially considering Biden won the state by 33%.

Sarbanes' parochialism is weird. As noted, he wanted a tentacle that touched all the metro areas so that he could appear on all the local media stations and build a brand for a statewide run. Except that run never happened even though there was a perfectly good opportunity in 2016 and a decent one in 2018. This leaves one with three possible conclusions, all which likely allow the district to drastically change shape - as long as he still lives in the seat of course.

1) He's decided to stay in Congress so there is no need for any wider appeal.

2) He's gonna run for one of the open offices in 2022, which means the seat is open and flexible.

3) He is understood among the party to be Cardin's heir designate. He therefore does not need the encompassing district because the mass of statewide endorsements and support he will automatically receive in 2024, or whenever the seat opens, will be stronger than any marginal initial name recognition.

This is exactly why so many young, left-leaning voters sit out every single election. When one spoiled, privilege baby who used dad's name to parlay a run into Congress takes precedence over entire communities, your party isn't that democratic now is it?

I really hope that: A. Nobody gives a sh**t what Sarbanes wants and B. He doesn't just succeed Cardin without a fight. We need to be a pro-democracy party, and Maryland's maps rn reflect a straight up corrupt way of thinking.

This sums up the problem with the Democratic Party right now.  The GOP caucus is largely looking out for its voters with a few notable exceptions (human garbage Ted Cruz, Josh Hawley) whereas most of the Dem caucus is just looking out for their own ambitions (Hillary, Pelosi, the list goes on and on even to SCOTUS justices).

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/walterolson/status/1443723380029628416

Surprisingly MD-1 (western district) in this is only a bit above Trump+7 and would seem to be trending D.

Of course this is only the Hogan appointed commission and has no real power so this map will never happen.

[Antonio the Sixth]

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

[Gass3268]

The commission map is remarkably nice and fair. In an ideal world, it should be approved. Unfortunately, conceding two seats to the GOP is hard to swallow given what they are doing in other states.

There is some VRA issues with this map. I’m going pretty sure I read MD-04 is a African American pack and MD-06 dilutes the African American vote by what it grabs outside of Baltimore City.