2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Former President tack50]

Since DRA added 2018 population estimates, here is my attempt at a fair map:



VA-01: Clinton+1; R+1
VA-02: Trump+6; R+4
VA-03: Clinton+34; D+17 (47% black)
VA-04: Clinton+23; D+11 (47% black)
VA-05: Trump+16; R+9
VA-06: Trump+26; R+13
VA-07: Trump+1; R+4
VA-08: Clinton+51; D+21
VA-09: Trump+42; R+20
VA-10: Clinton+8; D+1
VA-11: Clinton+33; D+12

https://davesredistricting.org/join/936eeade-cf92-46f8-b870-3e75d7cf7768

Basically, this should start as a 4D-3R-4S map, becoming 5D-3R-3S once VA-10 becomes completely safe for Dems. The other 3 swing districts are also probably trending towards the democrats, so by 2028 this might be a D gerrymander, but for now it should be plenty fair?

[Former President tack50]

Regarding an incumbent protection map, what happens if VA-07 flips back to R in 2020?

(or VA-02 or 10, but I think the former is too constrained to do anything about it being in the corner of the state and the latter is close to Safe D even at this point)

[Former President tack50]

Given Virginia is a Lean D state at this point, a fair map should probably be 6D-5R or something functionally equivalent (like say, 5D-4R-2S). Here is an example; a 5D-4R-2S map



VA-01: Trump+10; Gillespie+7; Kaine+1; R+6
VA-02: Trump+2; Northam+6; Kaine+10; R+2
VA-03: Clinton+29; Northam+34; Kaine+39; D+15 (46% black, 44% white)
VA-04: Clinton+19, Northam+19, Kaine+25, D+9 (47% black, 46% white)
VA-05: Trump+27, Gillespie+25, Stewart+18, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+3, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+2, Northam+1, Kaine+10, R+5
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+53, Kaine+59, D+22
VA-09: Trump+42, Gillespie+37, Stewart+30, R+20
VA-10: Clinton+30, Northam+33, Kaine+40, D+10
VA-11: Clinton+23, Northam+25, Kaine+33, D+9

So basically 5 Safe D districts (3 NOVA and the 2 VRA ones), 2 swing districts (the 2nd and 7th) and 4 Safe R districts, though I suppose if VA keeps trending D maybe the 6th will open up? (or possibly the 1st though that one is probably safe for the entire decade).

Granted it is also very easy to make an R gerrymander even with this map (in fact my first attempt was a soft R gerrymander with VA 2nd and 7th around Trump+5, so I had to swap a few precincts around to make them true swing districts); but a fair map should also account for the overall partisanship of the state (though keeping COIs takes priority)

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that you could make a VA-03 that is mostly based on Richmond, though you probably still need to branch a bit outside the area to get the minority population high enough:



A district like this for instance would be 44% white and 43% black, which is probably enough to qualify?

[Former President tack50]

Opinion of this map? Here I basically tried to make some redistricting decisions I had not really tried while still keeping the map relatively fair. Some of these include a more compact VA-04 (though I still had to get out of Richmond by quite a bit) or connecting VA-7 to the north.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/895aa991-6ed7-460e-b9df-9f748da36530

VA-01: Clinton+12, Northam+14, Kaine+23, D+4 (50% white, 20% hispanic, 21% black)
VA-02: Trump+5, Northam+2, Kaine+8, R+4
VA-03: Clinton+33, Northam+39, Kaine+44, D+17 (47% black. 42% white)
VA-04: Clinton+31, Northam+33, Kaine+39, D+14 (46% black, 45% white)
VA-05: Trump+26, Gillespie+25, Stewart+17, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+5, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+13, Gillespie+10, Stewart+2, R+9
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+52, Kaine+59, D+21
VA-09: Trump+38, Gillespie+35, Stewart+26, R+18
VA-10: Trump+6 Gillespie+3, Kaine+6, R+5
VA-11: Clinton+33, Northam+34, Kaine+43, D+12

Imo this map would be 5 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 1 Likely R (6th) and 2 Lean R (2nd, 10th)

I actually like several of these districts tbh, like how the 6th is now a district within reach of the Dems (even if it would be a very heavy lift) or the 10th which makes it so a competitive district remains in the north (though there are still 3 safe D districts in NOVA)

On the other hand the new 7th is not great and the 5th was the definition of leftovers district so still not great I suppose

[Former President tack50]

Opinion of this map? Here I basically tried to make some redistricting decisions I had not really tried while still keeping the map relatively fair. Some of these include a more compact VA-04 (though I still had to get out of Richmond by quite a bit) or connecting VA-7 to the north.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/895aa991-6ed7-460e-b9df-9f748da36530

VA-01: Clinton+12, Northam+14, Kaine+23, D+4 (50% white, 20% hispanic, 21% black)
VA-02: Trump+5, Northam+2, Kaine+8, R+4
VA-03: Clinton+33, Northam+39, Kaine+44, D+17 (47% black. 42% white)
VA-04: Clinton+31, Northam+33, Kaine+39, D+14 (46% black, 45% white)
VA-05: Trump+26, Gillespie+25, Stewart+17, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+5, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+13, Gillespie+10, Stewart+2, R+9
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+52, Kaine+59, D+21
VA-09: Trump+38, Gillespie+35, Stewart+26, R+18
VA-10: Trump+6 Gillespie+3, Kaine+6, R+5
VA-11: Clinton+33, Northam+34, Kaine+43, D+12

Imo this map would be 5 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 1 Likely R (6th) and 2 Lean R (2nd, 10th)

I actually like several of these districts tbh, like how the 6th is now a district within reach of the Dems (even if it would be a very heavy lift) or the 10th which makes it so a competitive district remains in the north (though there are still 3 safe D districts in NOVA)

On the other hand the new 7th is not great and the 5th was the definition of leftovers district so still not great I suppose

This is a Republican map, not a fair map.

Reston and Ashburn should be together; there is no justification for looping district 2 around district 3.

Why should Reston and Ashburn be together? They are in different counties after all, so there is certainly a COI argument to split them.

As for looping district 2 around district 3, there has to be (per VRA) a black district in the area. The logical way to do it is to take the 4 towns of Portsmouth, Norfolk, Hampton and Newport News. This leaves you 108k short of population. Similarly, because of that part of Virginia that is not connected to the rest of the state other than by land, district 2 needs to cover those 2 counties and Virginia Beach.

I will admit the looping around was a bit unnecessary (though it does raise the black% slightly), but I do not think it is that bad of a district.

Anyways here is an alternative map that does satisfy these requirements. The partisan result is probably fairer I will admit.



The new sets of partisan numbers are:

VA-02: Trump+1, Northam+7, Kaine+11, R+2
VA-03: Clinton+28, Northam+33, Kaine+38, D+14 (45% black, 44% white)

VA-01: Clinton+2, Northam+5, Kaine+14, EVEN
VA-10: Clinton+6, Northam+11, Kaine+18, EVEN
VA-11: Clinton+31, Northam+31, Kaine+40, D+11

The changes are not that big, though I guess with narrow margins they matter more.

I do like the VA-02/03 fix and think it is superior to the original (though looping around is also fine), but I still think the original version of NOVA was better. This adds one extra county split and it also makes the lines look uglier in my opinion.

As for partisanship, I suppose VA-02 goes from Lean R to tossup, and a second tossup (or possibly lean D soon) district gets added, at the cost of making another of the NOVA districts likely D instead of Safe D.

The partisanship is certainly better and I do actually think partisanship is a factor to be considered when making a fair map, but it should not be the only factor or even the most important one.

[Former President tack50]

My guess for a "clean" R gerrymander. Should be 5-1-5:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8e049197-dd77-4cc5-aa41-0a139262132d

[Former President tack50]

Worth noting that even with 2 VRA districts and what not; a 7R-4D map is theoretically possible; it's just that it would be a huge dummymander by Republicans.

But here is how such a map could hypothetically look like. This map has 7 districts that voted for Gillespie in the Governor election



District 2 is Gillespie+6, Trump+12, R+7
District 6 is Gillespie+2, Trump+6, R+6
District 7 is Gillespie+3, Trump+6, R+6
District 10 is Glillespie+4, Trump+6, R+6

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7ea55af7-8cd5-42d5-808f-26016a75643c

Of course in practice this map is not really 7R-4D; more like 4R-4D-3S

With some even more extreme snakes you could make use of the southwesternmost part of the state and finally get a full 7-4 but it would be way too ugly.

[Former President tack50]

For fun, here is how a hypothetical non-VRA, fair map would look like

https://davesredistricting.org/join/d2f8ded0-1d16-49f9-b529-c112255faabe



VA-01 (Tidewater): Trump+15, Gillespie+12, Stewart+4, R+9
VA-02 (Virginia Beach): Trump+2, Northam+7, Kaine+12, R+2
VA-03 (Newport News): Clinton+27, Northam+32, Kaine+37, D+14 (44.9% black, 45% white)
VA-04 (Richmond): Clinton+28, Northam+30, Kaine+39, D+11 (51% white, 35% black)
VA-05 (Central Virginia): Trump+6, Gillespie+2, Kaine+5, R+5
VA-06 (Appalachia): Trump+34, Gillespie+32, Kaine+25, R+17
VA-07 (Southern Virginia): Trump+14, Gillespie+16, Stewart+9, R+7
VA-08 (Alexandria & Arlington): Clinton+53, Northam+53, Kaine+59, D+22
VA-09 (Southwest Virginia): Trump+34, Gillespie+29, Stewart+21, R+16
VA-10 (South Fairfax & East PWC): Clinton+29, Northam+29, Kaine+38, D+11
VA-11 (North Fairfax & East Loudoun): Clinton+30, Northam+34, Kaine+40, D+10

Interestingly, even when you don't consider the VRA, the 3rd district still remains a black district. The 4th however becomes a Richmond centred district which probably elects a white Democrat?

[Former President tack50]

Why the weird lines in Northern Virginia?