2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Former President tack50]

Opinion of this map? Here I basically tried to make some redistricting decisions I had not really tried while still keeping the map relatively fair. Some of these include a more compact VA-04 (though I still had to get out of Richmond by quite a bit) or connecting VA-7 to the north.



https://davesredistricting.org/join/895aa991-6ed7-460e-b9df-9f748da36530

VA-01: Clinton+12, Northam+14, Kaine+23, D+4 (50% white, 20% hispanic, 21% black)
VA-02: Trump+5, Northam+2, Kaine+8, R+4
VA-03: Clinton+33, Northam+39, Kaine+44, D+17 (47% black. 42% white)
VA-04: Clinton+31, Northam+33, Kaine+39, D+14 (46% black, 45% white)
VA-05: Trump+26, Gillespie+25, Stewart+17, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+5, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+13, Gillespie+10, Stewart+2, R+9
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+52, Kaine+59, D+21
VA-09: Trump+38, Gillespie+35, Stewart+26, R+18
VA-10: Trump+6 Gillespie+3, Kaine+6, R+5
VA-11: Clinton+33, Northam+34, Kaine+43, D+12

Imo this map would be 5 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 1 Likely R (6th) and 2 Lean R (2nd, 10th)

I actually like several of these districts tbh, like how the 6th is now a district within reach of the Dems (even if it would be a very heavy lift) or the 10th which makes it so a competitive district remains in the north (though there are still 3 safe D districts in NOVA)

On the other hand the new 7th is not great and the 5th was the definition of leftovers district so still not great I suppose

[lfromnj]

Again I myself do not like the 3 concentric districts due to the fact Loudoun is very different from PWC just like Oakland and Macomb, however central fairfax west and central fairfax east still have a decent amount common with Loudoun and PWC, what isn't right is putting parts of central fairfax with some exurban/rural counties. Even if they have a highway connecting them there is literally nothing else they have in common, Its much better to have 1 Beltway district and then either 2 districts going south and one going west or have 2 districts based completely in Fairfax and then 2 more based in each of the suburban counties.

To Tack I will say the 7th distrrict is actually a pretty decent COI for most of the district, The Tidewater region always will get shoved somewhere bad in almost any map so you should look at the rest of the district which is Henrico/Hanover county which is very educated and then the Historic Triangle which is tourism+education.

[SevenEleven]

Opinion of this map? Here I basically tried to make some redistricting decisions I had not really tried while still keeping the map relatively fair. Some of these include a more compact VA-04 (though I still had to get out of Richmond by quite a bit) or connecting VA-7 to the north.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/895aa991-6ed7-460e-b9df-9f748da36530

VA-01: Clinton+12, Northam+14, Kaine+23, D+4 (50% white, 20% hispanic, 21% black)
VA-02: Trump+5, Northam+2, Kaine+8, R+4
VA-03: Clinton+33, Northam+39, Kaine+44, D+17 (47% black. 42% white)
VA-04: Clinton+31, Northam+33, Kaine+39, D+14 (46% black, 45% white)
VA-05: Trump+26, Gillespie+25, Stewart+17, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+5, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+13, Gillespie+10, Stewart+2, R+9
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+52, Kaine+59, D+21
VA-09: Trump+38, Gillespie+35, Stewart+26, R+18
VA-10: Trump+6 Gillespie+3, Kaine+6, R+5
VA-11: Clinton+33, Northam+34, Kaine+43, D+12

Imo this map would be 5 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 1 Likely R (6th) and 2 Lean R (2nd, 10th)

I actually like several of these districts tbh, like how the 6th is now a district within reach of the Dems (even if it would be a very heavy lift) or the 10th which makes it so a competitive district remains in the north (though there are still 3 safe D districts in NOVA)

On the other hand the new 7th is not great and the 5th was the definition of leftovers district so still not great I suppose

This is a Republican map, not a fair map.

Reston and Ashburn should be together; there is no justification for looping district 2 around district 3.

[lfromnj]

Opinion of this map? Here I basically tried to make some redistricting decisions I had not really tried while still keeping the map relatively fair. Some of these include a more compact VA-04 (though I still had to get out of Richmond by quite a bit) or connecting VA-7 to the north.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/895aa991-6ed7-460e-b9df-9f748da36530

VA-01: Clinton+12, Northam+14, Kaine+23, D+4 (50% white, 20% hispanic, 21% black)
VA-02: Trump+5, Northam+2, Kaine+8, R+4
VA-03: Clinton+33, Northam+39, Kaine+44, D+17 (47% black. 42% white)
VA-04: Clinton+31, Northam+33, Kaine+39, D+14 (46% black, 45% white)
VA-05: Trump+26, Gillespie+25, Stewart+17, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+5, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+13, Gillespie+10, Stewart+2, R+9
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+52, Kaine+59, D+21
VA-09: Trump+38, Gillespie+35, Stewart+26, R+18
VA-10: Trump+6 Gillespie+3, Kaine+6, R+5
VA-11: Clinton+33, Northam+34, Kaine+43, D+12

Imo this map would be 5 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 1 Likely R (6th) and 2 Lean R (2nd, 10th)

I actually like several of these districts tbh, like how the 6th is now a district within reach of the Dems (even if it would be a very heavy lift) or the 10th which makes it so a competitive district remains in the north (though there are still 3 safe D districts in NOVA)

On the other hand the new 7th is not great and the 5th was the definition of leftovers district so still not great I suppose

This is a Republican map, not a fair map.

Reston and Ashburn should be together; there is no justification for looping district 2 around district 3.

By your very own road argument is that the D inner 4 cities are connected by a nice done bridge circle.

[SevenEleven]

Opinion of this map? Here I basically tried to make some redistricting decisions I had not really tried while still keeping the map relatively fair. Some of these include a more compact VA-04 (though I still had to get out of Richmond by quite a bit) or connecting VA-7 to the north.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/895aa991-6ed7-460e-b9df-9f748da36530

VA-01: Clinton+12, Northam+14, Kaine+23, D+4 (50% white, 20% hispanic, 21% black)
VA-02: Trump+5, Northam+2, Kaine+8, R+4
VA-03: Clinton+33, Northam+39, Kaine+44, D+17 (47% black. 42% white)
VA-04: Clinton+31, Northam+33, Kaine+39, D+14 (46% black, 45% white)
VA-05: Trump+26, Gillespie+25, Stewart+17, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+5, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+13, Gillespie+10, Stewart+2, R+9
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+52, Kaine+59, D+21
VA-09: Trump+38, Gillespie+35, Stewart+26, R+18
VA-10: Trump+6 Gillespie+3, Kaine+6, R+5
VA-11: Clinton+33, Northam+34, Kaine+43, D+12

Imo this map would be 5 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 1 Likely R (6th) and 2 Lean R (2nd, 10th)

I actually like several of these districts tbh, like how the 6th is now a district within reach of the Dems (even if it would be a very heavy lift) or the 10th which makes it so a competitive district remains in the north (though there are still 3 safe D districts in NOVA)

On the other hand the new 7th is not great and the 5th was the definition of leftovers district so still not great I suppose

This is a Republican map, not a fair map.

Reston and Ashburn should be together; there is no justification for looping district 2 around district 3.

By your very own road argument is that the D inner 4 cities are connected by a nice done bridge circle.

No. That's not at all related to any argument I've made about roads.

[lfromnj]

Theres literally a Hampton Roads beltway. Create one district mostly based inside thats the VRA district, then create one that goes around it or at the very least is VA beach+Chesapeake, im not even arguing for this path, my argument for connecting VA beach with Chesapeake is because those 2 are much more suburban in nature than Norfolk, my argument here is just saying by your logic VA beach must go with Chesapeake.

[SevenEleven]

Create one district mostly based inside thats the VRA district, then create one that goes around it

No, it's already been explained to you that you don't just loop around areas without the VRA requiring it, which it does not here as the district suffices without doing such.



FairMap^TM 2.0 is now available.

[lfromnj]

You still havent justified your Norfolk to VA beach pairing, it splits up the 4 inner cities to make 2 Safe D seats for no reason. Its not a loop around, Connecting to Chesapeake beach is the next county over and creates a well done suburban district.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

To maximize AA pop, you should really cut both Norfolk and Portsmouth. Let the VA Beach district take in whiter (and more suburban) northern Norfolk and Southern Portsmouth while pairing South Norfolk, North Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Newport News, and Hampton into one AA district.

[lfromnj]

To maximize AA pop, you should really cut both Norfolk and Portsmouth. Let the VA Beach district take in whiter (and more suburban) northern Norfolk and Southern Portsmouth while pairing South Norfolk, North Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Newport News, and Hampton into one AA district.

Oh you so want the maximized AA pop without going too ugly?
Then do this
Trump +4.3 Green and
Clinton +31 Purple
48.5% Black.

[SevenEleven]

Anything over 40% is good enough for VA-3 and VA-4. I don't see a need to split Portsmouth here. This also allows black voters to make an impact in VA-2.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

To maximize AA pop, you should really cut both Norfolk and Portsmouth. Let the VA Beach district take in whiter (and more suburban) northern Norfolk and Southern Portsmouth while pairing South Norfolk, North Portsmouth, Chesapeake, Suffolk, Newport News, and Hampton into one AA district.

Oh you so want the maximized AA pop without going too ugly?
Then do this
Trump +4.3 Green and
Clinton +31 Purple
48.5% Black.

I'm fine with that, although I'd trade a few more precincts in North Norfolk for a few in West Chesapeake to make the purple district a bit cleaner. I'd also take in all of Southampton county in exchange for a few (very white) precincts in North Newport News. Shouldn't affect the partisanship or AA pop too much but I think it looks better.

[lfromnj]

Anything over 40% is good enough for VA-3 and VA-4. I don't see a need to split Portsmouth here.

So then whats wrong with one district based in Richmond thats 40.5% black?
you are running in circles to justify every gerrymandered decision.

[SevenEleven]

Anything over 40% is good enough for VA-3 and VA-4. I don't see a need to split Portsmouth here.

So then whats wrong with one district based in Richmond thats 40.5% black?
you are running in circles to justify every gerrymandered decision.

VA-4 is a Black district based in Richmond. Richmond metro is about two districts worth of people, so I have two Richmond metro districts. Of course, being in the center of the state means that other concerns affect Richmond more easily than, say, NoVA.

Pairing Richmond with the tidewater region isn't ideal, but neither is pairing it with Charlottesville.

[lfromnj]

The main counties in the Richmond metro + Petersburg is 900k people, you put one district based mostly in it if you are fine with 40.5% black districts.

[SevenEleven]

The main counties in the Richmond metro + Petersburg is 900k people, you put one district based mostly in it if you are fine with 40.5% black districts.

I have it at 1.26 million, which is much closer to two districts.

[lfromnj]

The main counties in the Richmond metro + Petersburg is 900k people, you put one district based mostly in it if you are fine with 40.5% black districts.

I have it at 1.26 million, which is much closer to two districts.

Thats including a bunch of exurban or even rural counties which you split among 3 districts lol.

[SevenEleven]

The main counties in the Richmond metro + Petersburg is 900k people, you put one district based mostly in it if you are fine with 40.5% black districts.

I have it at 1.26 million, which is much closer to two districts.

Thats including a bunch of exurban or even rural counties which you split among 3 districts lol.

I already explained that by being in the central part of the state, you end up having to make sacrifices due to other regions that are way underpopulated for their own district. It's fairly simple to understand.

[Del Tachi]

VA-10 has to get population from somewhere.

Yup.  Push it further in and turn it into a Fairfax + Inner Loudoun district.

That Tidewater-to-Shenandoah district is an abomination, and you've managed to split Shenandoah three ways.  Current VA-01 alignment should be largely maintained, which means adding Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania back in.  



This is an ideal fair map.  It makes more sense to cut Loudoun along partisan lines to create a Shenandoah-interest district and buff-up 3 NOVA seats (1 of which is a minority-interest district) rather than pizza slicing NOVA to create 4 Dem seats and (necessarily) hacking Shenandoah to death.

[Former President tack50]

Opinion of this map? Here I basically tried to make some redistricting decisions I had not really tried while still keeping the map relatively fair. Some of these include a more compact VA-04 (though I still had to get out of Richmond by quite a bit) or connecting VA-7 to the north.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/895aa991-6ed7-460e-b9df-9f748da36530

VA-01: Clinton+12, Northam+14, Kaine+23, D+4 (50% white, 20% hispanic, 21% black)
VA-02: Trump+5, Northam+2, Kaine+8, R+4
VA-03: Clinton+33, Northam+39, Kaine+44, D+17 (47% black. 42% white)
VA-04: Clinton+31, Northam+33, Kaine+39, D+14 (46% black, 45% white)
VA-05: Trump+26, Gillespie+25, Stewart+17, R+14
VA-06: Trump+9, Gillespie+5, Kaine+2, R+6
VA-07: Trump+13, Gillespie+10, Stewart+2, R+9
VA-08: Clinton+52, Northam+52, Kaine+59, D+21
VA-09: Trump+38, Gillespie+35, Stewart+26, R+18
VA-10: Trump+6 Gillespie+3, Kaine+6, R+5
VA-11: Clinton+33, Northam+34, Kaine+43, D+12

Imo this map would be 5 Safe D, 3 Safe R, 1 Likely R (6th) and 2 Lean R (2nd, 10th)

I actually like several of these districts tbh, like how the 6th is now a district within reach of the Dems (even if it would be a very heavy lift) or the 10th which makes it so a competitive district remains in the north (though there are still 3 safe D districts in NOVA)

On the other hand the new 7th is not great and the 5th was the definition of leftovers district so still not great I suppose

This is a Republican map, not a fair map.

Reston and Ashburn should be together; there is no justification for looping district 2 around district 3.

Why should Reston and Ashburn be together? They are in different counties after all, so there is certainly a COI argument to split them.

As for looping district 2 around district 3, there has to be (per VRA) a black district in the area. The logical way to do it is to take the 4 towns of Portsmouth, Norfolk, Hampton and Newport News. This leaves you 108k short of population. Similarly, because of that part of Virginia that is not connected to the rest of the state other than by land, district 2 needs to cover those 2 counties and Virginia Beach.

I will admit the looping around was a bit unnecessary (though it does raise the black% slightly), but I do not think it is that bad of a district.

Anyways here is an alternative map that does satisfy these requirements. The partisan result is probably fairer I will admit.



The new sets of partisan numbers are:

VA-02: Trump+1, Northam+7, Kaine+11, R+2
VA-03: Clinton+28, Northam+33, Kaine+38, D+14 (45% black, 44% white)

VA-01: Clinton+2, Northam+5, Kaine+14, EVEN
VA-10: Clinton+6, Northam+11, Kaine+18, EVEN
VA-11: Clinton+31, Northam+31, Kaine+40, D+11

The changes are not that big, though I guess with narrow margins they matter more.

I do like the VA-02/03 fix and think it is superior to the original (though looping around is also fine), but I still think the original version of NOVA was better. This adds one extra county split and it also makes the lines look uglier in my opinion.

As for partisanship, I suppose VA-02 goes from Lean R to tossup, and a second tossup (or possibly lean D soon) district gets added, at the cost of making another of the NOVA districts likely D instead of Safe D.

The partisanship is certainly better and I do actually think partisanship is a factor to be considered when making a fair map, but it should not be the only factor or even the most important one.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

VA-10 has to get population from somewhere.

Yup.  Push it further in and turn it into a Fairfax + Inner Loudoun district.

That Tidewater-to-Shenandoah district is an abomination, and you've managed to split Shenandoah three ways.  Current VA-01 alignment should be largely maintained, which means adding back Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania back in. 



This is an ideal fair map.  It makes more sense to cut Loudoun along partisan lines to create a Shenandoah-interest district and buff-up 3 NOVA seats (1 of which is a minority-interest district) rather than pizza slicing NOVA to create 4 Dem seats and (necessarily) hacking Shenandoah to death.

What the f**k! Are you seriously putting Burke in with the Tidewater and using water continuity in the Hampton Roads? And you're connecting the Southside with the Hampton Roads? Your 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th districts are all justifiable (although I would seriously change some lines around Staunton and Roanoke) but the rest are all wrong.

[SevenEleven]

Why should Reston and Ashburn be together? They are in different counties after all, so there is certainly a COI argument to split them.

I will say I don't think partisanship should be a factor in making these maps, but generally when COIs are broken up it's usually due to partisan reasons.

Reston is where people in Loudoun go to do their shopping, take the train, etc.

[Del Tachi]

VA-10 has to get population from somewhere.

Yup.  Push it further in and turn it into a Fairfax + Inner Loudoun district.

That Tidewater-to-Shenandoah district is an abomination, and you've managed to split Shenandoah three ways.  Current VA-01 alignment should be largely maintained, which means adding back Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania back in. 



This is an ideal fair map.  It makes more sense to cut Loudoun along partisan lines to create a Shenandoah-interest district and buff-up 3 NOVA seats (1 of which is a minority-interest district) rather than pizza slicing NOVA to create 4 Dem seats and (necessarily) hacking Shenandoah to death.

What the f**k! Are you seriously putting Burke in with the Tidewater and using water continuity in the Hampton Roads? And you're connecting the Southside with the Hampton Roads? Your 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th districts are all justifiable (although I would seriously change some lines around Staunton and Roanoke) but the rest are all wrong.

I drew that downstate alignment in a matter of minutes, but here's something that's probably more to your liking:



I don't really like the VA-05 this map forces, but the downstate lines are better.  I'll stand by my general NOVA alignment, which is replicated from my first map.  The only remaining "issue" is water continuity in VA-02, but I think it's justifiable from a "minimal change"-based criterion.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

VA-10 has to get population from somewhere.

Yup.  Push it further in and turn it into a Fairfax + Inner Loudoun district.

That Tidewater-to-Shenandoah district is an abomination, and you've managed to split Shenandoah three ways.  Current VA-01 alignment should be largely maintained, which means adding back Fredericksburg/Spotsylvania back in. 



This is an ideal fair map.  It makes more sense to cut Loudoun along partisan lines to create a Shenandoah-interest district and buff-up 3 NOVA seats (1 of which is a minority-interest district) rather than pizza slicing NOVA to create 4 Dem seats and (necessarily) hacking Shenandoah to death.

What the f**k! Are you seriously putting Burke in with the Tidewater and using water continuity in the Hampton Roads? And you're connecting the Southside with the Hampton Roads? Your 6th, 7th, 8th, and 9th districts are all justifiable (although I would seriously change some lines around Staunton and Roanoke) but the rest are all wrong.

I drew that downstate alignment in a matter of minutes, but here's something that's probably more to your liking:



I don't really like the VA-05 this map forces, but the downstate lines are better.  I'll stand by my general NOVA alignment, which is replicated from my first map.  The only remaining "issue" is water continuity in VA-02, but I think it's justifiable from a "minimal change"-based criterion.

Downstate looks good but those lines in Burke, Manassas, and Vienna hurt.

[lfromnj]

Cleaned up earlier courtmander by the VA supreme court for a cleanly gerrymandered 5 D - 6 R locked in map.

This is a perfect map for the GOP, the main issue with this map is VA 2 which splits 3 cities there to push it to Trump +6 or Likely R.
VA 1 is kept as Safe R at trump +15
VA 7 is now moved to Trump +15 or also Safe R.
VA 5 is also still Safe R.

The only 2 districts with real issues for the average viewer are VA 1 which is a bit of a leftovers district on this map and VA 02.

Also all 4 Republican incumbents largely keep their same district.