2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia (user search)
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  2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia (search mode)
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Author Topic: 2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia  (Read 57903 times)
UncleSam
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« on: September 02, 2021, 10:55:33 AM »

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I honestly think independent commissions and the way they operate/are stacked are one of the most egregious examples of bad-faith and ill-intentioned "gerrymandering reform," and they’re the main reason why I prefer even the current system to this kind of reform. I don’t know if that’s what happened here, but it always baffles me when so-called "independent" commissions act in a more partisan manner than even state legislatures/governors (we see this in states like MT/NJ/etc. as well). It’s a shame because it’s in both parties' interest to genuinely tackle gerrymandering at this point (it’s also the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, obviously, but electoral calculations will always take precedence over moral arguments in most politicians' minds) rather than just creating another (this time ostensibly 'non-partisan') thinly veiled gerrymander.

I’m completely opposed to those commissions in any state.
Partisan/bipartisan commissions are bad. I'd like to see a federal law rolling redistricting into another arm of the census bureau, with districts drawn by non-partisan bureaucrats with public input. I don't want a single elected official getting a say in the process beyond that of any other citizen.
That sounds even worse than a commission tbh.

The only way to truly get partisanship / gaming the system out of redistricting is to give it to the computers. We will set allowable deviations by population, compactness, etc. and then let the computers draw the maps.

The only question would be VRA compliance and who decides on the algorithm, but those questions could be handled nationwide and not on a state by state basis. Regardless, this is the only framework that will ever be fair in any sense of the word.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,513


« Reply #1 on: September 02, 2021, 05:27:32 PM »

I’ve yet to see any compelling definition of a ‘community of interest’ that goes beyond municipality or county borders. You can load racial data into the computer and prioritize minority majority seats if you like, but I’m pretty convinced that neither side really wants a solution, they just want maps that help their cause.

Computers don’t care who wins or loses elections, so I’ll trust any day. Even if it’s as simple as minimizing county splits, prioritizing compactness, and hitting go. I’d rather have that any day of the week than these bs commissions or legislators gerrymandering their own lines to keep their jobs safe from voters.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,513


« Reply #2 on: October 15, 2021, 10:19:11 AM »

Virginia Democrats with this one move are now on Florida Democrats level of incompetence.
lol no, not even remotely close.
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UncleSam
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Posts: 2,513


« Reply #3 on: December 10, 2021, 05:10:05 PM »

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.
Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.
Ya up until Ds become less packed into strongholds than Rs I’m going to consider a neutral year roughly D+1.5. If computers were drawing the lines that’s about where the popular vote would have to be for the house to be a tossup.
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