2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Nyvin]

After reading this I'm fairly convinced the commission was designed from the beginning to deadlock and send the map drawing to the State Supreme Court.

https://twitter.com/Jaaavis/status/1428002312606437383

[Virginiá]

After reading this I'm fairly convinced the commission was designed from the beginning to deadlock and send the map drawing the State Supreme Court.

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

[S019]

This line from that Facebook post really sticks out to me:

"Are Virginia Democrats the most altruistic, public spirited state party in the country?
Or the most naive?"

A number of Virginia Democrats had warned that this would happen during the ballot initiative campaign. To any outside observer, this is completely unsurprising, the Republicans wrote the commission in a way that they could punt it to a favorable court, if they did not get the concessions that they wanted, and it very well seems that that is what is happening here.

[Frodo]

After reading this I'm fairly convinced the commission was designed from the beginning to deadlock and send the map drawing the State Supreme Court.

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I voted against it, let the record show. 

[Oryxslayer]

Along a 12-4 vote the commission voted to discard the present legislative lines and start from scratch.

[Non Swing Voter]

Weren't Dems packing the Virginia court?  What happened to that.  I also voted against this commission for this exact reason.  When I early voted the Fairfax Democratic Party was at precincts telling people to vote against it, and the GOP was telling people to vote for it.

[Non Swing Voter]

At any rate, this is a missed opportunity for Dems and another example of how Dem politicians are useless/worthless.  Virginia is a state where Dems really could have mutilated the GOP in redistricting.  They should have bacon stripped districts out of NOVA and shored up borderline incumbents.  They probably could have picked up another congressional seat and created districts where Dem incumbents feel safe to vote the party line on a number of issues.  Instead, we have chaos just months before the 2021 elections.

[MT Treasurer]

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I honestly think independent commissions and the way they operate/are stacked are one of the most egregious examples of bad-faith and ill-intentioned "gerrymandering reform," and they’re the main reason why I prefer even the current system to this kind of reform. I don’t know if that’s what happened here, but it always baffles me when so-called "independent" commissions act in a more partisan manner than even state legislatures/governors (we see this in states like MT/NJ/etc. as well). It’s a shame because it’s in both parties' interest to genuinely tackle gerrymandering at this point (it’s also the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, obviously, but electoral calculations will always take precedence over moral arguments in most politicians' minds) rather than just creating another (this time ostensibly 'non-partisan') thinly veiled gerrymander.

I’m completely opposed to those commissions in any state.

[Skill and Chance]

Along a 12-4 vote the commission voted to discard the present legislative lines and start from scratch.

That's good, right?

[Virginiá]

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I honestly think independent commissions and the way they operate/are stacked are one of the most egregious examples of bad-faith and ill-intentioned "gerrymandering reform," and they’re the main reason why I prefer even the current system to this kind of reform. I don’t know if that’s what happened here, but it always baffles me when so-called "independent" commissions act in a more partisan manner than even state legislatures/governors (we see this in states like MT/NJ/etc. as well). It’s a shame because it’s in both parties' interest to genuinely tackle gerrymandering at this point (it’s also the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, obviously, but electoral calculations will always take precedence over moral arguments in most politicians' minds) rather than just creating another (this time ostensibly 'non-partisan') thinly veiled gerrymander.

I’m completely opposed to those commissions in any state.

I'm not opposed to commissions in general, but there must be strict controls on who can work for or otherwise have input with these commissions (eg, no legislators, party operatives, etc). And said restrictions must be regularly updated to account for loopholes that might have been developed and abused over time to improperly influence the commission.

Maybe the culture surrounding elections in America is just too corrupted to have a system like this at all. Maybe the difficulties in ensuring fairly drawn maps are too great given that the politicians of this country have had way too much influence for too long, and are simply unable to stop themselves from trying to influence and corrupt the process for their own benefit. Thoughts like this are why I'm supportive of wholesale reform from the ground up, such as maybe proportional representation and other reforms. Not that it will ever happen...

[Oryxslayer]

Along a 12-4 vote the commission voted to discard the present legislative lines and start from scratch.

That's good, right?

Yes, basically means that you don't have former districts impart their influence over the shape of new ones. See Arizona for how this shakeup influences things. It also is important in states with concentrated growth where multiple districts move from one side of the state to the other, so you let new and old districts follow community lines rather than having their surroundings mutually eat or disgorge precincts with no rhyme or reason.

Its also important to note here how the citizen commissioners are exhausted with the explicitly legislative ones.

[Stuart98]

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I honestly think independent commissions and the way they operate/are stacked are one of the most egregious examples of bad-faith and ill-intentioned "gerrymandering reform," and they’re the main reason why I prefer even the current system to this kind of reform. I don’t know if that’s what happened here, but it always baffles me when so-called "independent" commissions act in a more partisan manner than even state legislatures/governors (we see this in states like MT/NJ/etc. as well). It’s a shame because it’s in both parties' interest to genuinely tackle gerrymandering at this point (it’s also the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, obviously, but electoral calculations will always take precedence over moral arguments in most politicians' minds) rather than just creating another (this time ostensibly 'non-partisan') thinly veiled gerrymander.

I’m completely opposed to those commissions in any state.

Partisan/bipartisan commissions are bad. I'd like to see a federal law rolling redistricting into another arm of the census bureau, with districts drawn by non-partisan bureaucrats with public input. I don't want a single elected official getting a say in the process beyond that of any other citizen.

[Nyvin]

Along a 12-4 vote the commission voted to discard the present legislative lines and start from scratch.

That's good, right?

Yes, basically means that you don't have former districts impart their influence over the shape of new ones. See Arizona for how this shakeup influences things. It also is important in states with concentrated growth where multiple districts move from one side of the state to the other, so you let new and old districts follow community lines rather than having their surroundings mutually eat or disgorge precincts with no rhyme or reason.

Its also important to note here how the citizen commissioners are exhausted with the explicitly legislative ones.

So the commission is 8-8 Citizen/Legislative and GOP/Dem (4 D-Citizen, 4 D-Leg, 4 R-Citizen, 4 R-Leg), correct?

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

If it's the 4 R Legislative commissioners that were left isolated that's probably a good thing (and it makes sense,  the R Legislature trying to maintain their gerrymander).

[VAR]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829

Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

[lfromnj]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829

Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

The current state senate map is a D leaning map while the house map is mostly useless for Rs.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829

Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

The current state senate map is a D leaning map while the house map is mostly useless for Rs.

I thought the current state Senate map was an R gerry?

[Frodo]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829
Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

The current state senate map is a D leaning map while the house map is mostly useless for Rs.

I thought the current state Senate map was an R gerry?

Democrats won the chamber in 2007 (anti-Iraq War backlash, mainly), so by the time of the last redistricting cycle, the General Assembly was split, with Republicans controlling the House of Delegates, and Democrats (narrowly) controlling the state Senate.  I have no doubt that had Republicans retained control of that chamber, they would have gerrymandered out nearly every rural Democrat (like they did in the House).  How big a majority they would have had we can only speculate.

[VAR]

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

I’m certainly aware, but a compact Senate map would also double bunk multiple Dem incumbents in NoVA, which is not at all a desirable outcome for Barker in particular.

[lfromnj]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829

Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

The current state senate map is a D leaning map while the house map is mostly useless for Rs.

I thought the current state Senate map was an R gerry?

Mostly incumbent protection meant to hold 21-19 for Ds. However that SW rural VA district just zoomed hard right. There's another district that puts Montgomery county with Roanoke to create a Biden +10 district when Roanoke +Salem +Roanoke county is basically 1 district and would be moderately Trump.  Disadvantages for Rs in the state senate for redistricting will probably be pushes into NOVA.  Also some stuff in Richmond

[Skill and Chance]

Do we know how the 12-4 vote played out in regards to which 4 jumped ship to the other side?

Here are the ones who voted against drawing maps from scratch-

https://mobile.twitter.com/1VA2021/status/1429861176066850829

Believe it or not, a Democrat voted against it: Sen. George Barker of Alexandria. And predictably, his Senate district looks like this-

Reminder a certain senator from SW VA really would not like the Roanake metro being united.

The current state senate map is a D leaning map while the house map is mostly useless for Rs.

I thought the current state Senate map was an R gerry?

Mostly incumbent protection meant to hold 21-19 for Ds. However that SW rural VA district just zoomed hard right. There's another district that puts Montgomery county with Roanoke to create a Biden +10 district when Roanoke +Salem +Roanoke county is basically 1 district and would be moderately Trump.  Disadvantages for Rs in the state senate for redistricting will probably be pushes into NOVA.  Also some stuff in Richmond

Yes, the Roanoke seat will likely become R leaning, but the population shifts will move another net senate seat from the rural southwest to NOVA.  There's also the matter of the Richmond area, where a once safe R SD barely held on in 2019.  R's already hold all of the currently competitive seats in the Tidewater.  I don't think you can weaken the one Likely D district there without also flipping one of the Obama-Biden R seats. 

I don't see how you get an R majority State Senate without an explicit gerrymander or a reversion to 2012ish voting patterns. 

The State House is more interesting because R's drew NOVA to try for a 2/3rds majority back in 2011.  And it worked, but only for one cycle.  A lot is riding on VRA/state level majority-minority districting rules. Without the court-ordered redraw of Hampton Roads, Dems would still have flipped the chamber, but only by 51D/49R, and that's due to the now-counterproductive spider web map of NOVA based on 2008-10 voting patterns.  If you redrew compact NOVA districts and reversed the court-ordered VRA changes, it's conceivable R's would still control the chamber.  The population shift probably forces at least one more double digit Biden district in NOVA this time around, but it also means a near certain loss of a Dem-leaning district in Southside.  IDK the State House looks like it could be on a knife's edge for a while, especially if the state courts pick R-tilting maps.       

[Nyvin]

So the commission is using incumbents addresses when drawing the districts and David Suetterlein in SD-19 is listed as being from Salem, while John S Edwards in SD-21 is listed as being from Roanoke.   Does this mean the D-mander SD-21 will live on?  I was thinking they could add all of Montgomery County to SD-21 to make it a bit cleaner.

Also is there any way to draw Joe Morrissey out of a district or are they stuck with him?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1433428442712711170

They look like pretty bland maps so far, nothing crazy or special.

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/vpapupdates/status/1433428442712711170

They look like pretty bland maps so far, nothing crazy or special.

House and Senate proposals for the Fairfax region released. There are a few different proposed alignments for both chambers regarding the specified region in the linked PDF.

EDIT: got ninja'ed

[UncleSam]

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I honestly think independent commissions and the way they operate/are stacked are one of the most egregious examples of bad-faith and ill-intentioned "gerrymandering reform," and they’re the main reason why I prefer even the current system to this kind of reform. I don’t know if that’s what happened here, but it always baffles me when so-called "independent" commissions act in a more partisan manner than even state legislatures/governors (we see this in states like MT/NJ/etc. as well). It’s a shame because it’s in both parties' interest to genuinely tackle gerrymandering at this point (it’s also the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, obviously, but electoral calculations will always take precedence over moral arguments in most politicians' minds) rather than just creating another (this time ostensibly 'non-partisan') thinly veiled gerrymander.

I’m completely opposed to those commissions in any state.

Partisan/bipartisan commissions are bad. I'd like to see a federal law rolling redistricting into another arm of the census bureau, with districts drawn by non-partisan bureaucrats with public input. I don't want a single elected official getting a say in the process beyond that of any other citizen.

That sounds even worse than a commission tbh.

The only way to truly get partisanship / gaming the system out of redistricting is to give it to the computers. We will set allowable deviations by population, compactness, etc. and then let the computers draw the maps.

The only question would be VRA compliance and who decides on the algorithm, but those questions could be handled nationwide and not on a state by state basis. Regardless, this is the only framework that will ever be fair in any sense of the word.

[Nyvin]

Here's the "B1" plan



Pretty obvious they're going for a combined 10 districts between Fairfax and Prince William Counties and their respective enclaves,  and then Loudon + Clarke will be almost exactly 2 districts.

  After that I'm thinking there will be a competitive seat in the Fredericksburg area, but not sure.