2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[Virginiá]

It wouldn't be a problem if the justices were picked by some sort of non-partisan nominating commission, or less of a problem if they were at least appointed by governors, but that isn't the case. There really is a substantial conflict of interest issue here with letting Republican members of the commission deadlock on purpose to throw map drawing to the VASC.

Better to just craft a new amendment with less problems than to pass this out of desperation to get something done (even if it creates new problems and/or weakens the movement for real reform).

[Virginiá]

After reading this I'm fairly convinced the commission was designed from the beginning to deadlock and send the map drawing the State Supreme Court.

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

[Virginiá]

tbh, I assumed that from the start. Particularly in a state where Republicans just lost control over redistricting, creating a commission where they could deadlock the process and having maps be drawn by a court whose members they appointed seemed like a textbook case of gaming the system. Even in a situation without the VASC, they probably would never reach an agreement anyway. There's just way too many conflicts of interest and self-interest at play.

I honestly think independent commissions and the way they operate/are stacked are one of the most egregious examples of bad-faith and ill-intentioned "gerrymandering reform," and they’re the main reason why I prefer even the current system to this kind of reform. I don’t know if that’s what happened here, but it always baffles me when so-called "independent" commissions act in a more partisan manner than even state legislatures/governors (we see this in states like MT/NJ/etc. as well). It’s a shame because it’s in both parties' interest to genuinely tackle gerrymandering at this point (it’s also the right thing to do from a moral standpoint, obviously, but electoral calculations will always take precedence over moral arguments in most politicians' minds) rather than just creating another (this time ostensibly 'non-partisan') thinly veiled gerrymander.

I’m completely opposed to those commissions in any state.

I'm not opposed to commissions in general, but there must be strict controls on who can work for or otherwise have input with these commissions (eg, no legislators, party operatives, etc). And said restrictions must be regularly updated to account for loopholes that might have been developed and abused over time to improperly influence the commission.

Maybe the culture surrounding elections in America is just too corrupted to have a system like this at all. Maybe the difficulties in ensuring fairly drawn maps are too great given that the politicians of this country have had way too much influence for too long, and are simply unable to stop themselves from trying to influence and corrupt the process for their own benefit. Thoughts like this are why I'm supportive of wholesale reform from the ground up, such as maybe proportional representation and other reforms. Not that it will ever happen...

[Virginiá]

No real surprise that there's Republican and Democrat drawn maps.   The commission can't agree on anything and will most likely (almost certainly) deadlock and be sent to the State Supreme Court. 

If this weren't so critical to the state's future, it'd be hilarious how obvious this result was.

[Virginiá]

Didn't D's pack the state Supreme Court a while back?  So essentially we'll have a "light" D gerrymander (probably an incumbent protection congressional map)?

The state supreme court is elected by the legislature, and most of the current justices were elected by a fully Republican legislature. A couple or so were first appointed into the court system by Democratic governors, but not all. One used to be a Republican state Representative for 14 years, another worked for the Republican-led AG's office for many years.

I'm not 100% on it but I think it's probably fair to say the court leans right.

[Virginiá]

I thought the Dem legislature packed it a while back but maybe it was lower courts.  If the Dems literally handed all power of redistricting to GOP judges then I'm really pissed now.  The unilateral disarmament is absurd.

Doesn't sound like VA. Democrats have only had full control for less than 2 years now and I don't remember any judicial reform / shenanigans happening.

Illinois Democrats recently passed a new map for the state supreme court for the first time in decades, mostly to shore up incumbent dems. Not that a very strong argument couldn't be made for a new map anyway given how wildly unbalanced some of the district populations had become. Maybe that was what you read? Certainly not West Virginia impeaching the entire supreme court in 2018 to replace them with conservatives ?

[Virginiá]

I found what I was thinking of.  I guess they just did it for the appeals court:

https://apnews.com/article/health-courts-coronavirus-pandemic-race-and-ethnicity-virginia-2937c5bf568b2986eede2982e909dd26

At least it shows a willingness to do something... I guess. 

Yeah not applicable for redistricting since the VASC handles deadlocks, but wow I totally missed this. And that happened nearly a year ago. Good to know!

[Virginiá]

Virginia Democrats with this one move are now on Florida Democrats level of incompetence.

The first step to redeeming themselves would be to approve a new amendment to either repeal Question 1 from 2020 and either replace it with a commission that can actually come an equitable agreement and not just have partisan commissioners stonewall on purpose so a right-leaning supreme court can draw the maps, or go back to the legislature drawing maps and let Republicans reap what they have sown. Democrats were unambiguously stupid to agree to the VAGOP's last-ditch effort to cling to some semblance of power. Granted, the vast majority of HoD Democrats voted against it, but the Senate and <12 HoD Dems voted for it, and they should be embarrassed by how easily and quickly the commission they endorsed has fallen apart.

[Virginiá]

Chill down, the dem legislators aren't this dumb lol. Mamie Locke knows redistricting.

The VA supreme court isn't even that hackish.

IDK, for me personally, this kind of commission is ridiculous and anathema to the point of actual reform, which is to remove lawmakers from the process of drawing their own districts. There are too many conflicts of interest at play to let them serve as commissioners or arbiters of the final maps. I get you can't remove partisanship entirely, but you can reduce it. What good is this commission exactly if the end result is deadlocking and punting it to a court to draw? I don't see why the result in 2031 would be any different.

Not that I endorse all citizen-led redistricting reform initiatives, but I appreciate their results more than those of these convoluted commissions crafted by lawmakers who bend over backwards to continue granting themselves some or even the most control of the process.

[Virginiá]

Worth pointing out that the Dem-run legislature could just reject the map and have the commission draw a new one, which if also rejected would then transfer the responsibility to the VASC to draw. So whatever map they come up with first isn't necessarily going to be it.

[Virginiá]

https://twitter.com/ankitjain992/status/1450086623769767939

Also person tagged the wrong Jason Torchinsky in the thread lol

[Virginiá]

That map reeks of bad faith on the GOP's part though.

Not terribly surprising for a commission that was crafted and passed in bad faith on the Republican Party's part. The vehicle Republicans created to facilitate their future shenanigans was never going to be used by them for actual fair (or reasonably so) redistricting.

[Virginiá]

I would certainly credit VA Dems for expeditiously passing many parts of their agenda since taking power, but yeah, the redistricting commission was really a major self-own, and of the kind that should disqualify some of them in the eyes of primary voters. Giving Republicans a chance to backdoor a favorable map for themselves is exactly the kind of thing they should be able to trust their party not to do, and somehow the Democratic-controlled legislature did just that. All they had to do was vote down the GOP's amendment and put forward their own, and yet, here we are. There was never any rush, either, despite what people tried to say prior to its passage. If they still wanted to go the commission route, Democrats could have had a better commission amendment on the ballot in 2022 which forced another redraw in 2023. Absolutely no excuses here.

[Virginiá]

Have enjoyed random coverage of the commission hearings:






Doomed to fail

[Virginiá]

November results = whether Ds hold HOD. If they do they will get two VASC seats to fill in 2023, which probably will effect GOP calculations.

Those appointments have not been ultra partisan, but I suspect if these do go to the VASC after this experience, Ds in the legislature will be bitter enough to make redistricting even middecade a litmus test for judicial elections in 2023 and 2027.

Still possible they will have to have another legislative election in 2022 because they are supposed to be holding elections under new legislative maps already but obviously because of COVID that was not possible.

https://www.virginiamercury.com/2021/10/08/will-virginia-delegates-have-to-run-again-in-2022-a-judge-could-decide-soon/
https://shoredailynews.com/headlines/three-judge-panel-appointed-to-hear-arguments-in-redistricting-issue/

So in theory the winners of this election still might not get to fill those seats, although the new HoD map probably won't be any more favorable for Republicans than the current one.