2020 Census and Redistricting Thread: Virginia

[OBD]

Wow I'm dumb. Sorry guys.

[Oryxslayer]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.

Which for reference, is about as democratic VA-10 was in 2016.

Ye the proposed VA-10 in the new draft map should start out as at least lean D in 2022 if it stays as is. It basically voted in line with VA but is prolly more reacative that your average dostroct

Holy f**king sh*t. Three people in a row who don't bother to read the whole exchange, misunderstand what it's actually about, and just come in hot and ready to "correct" me with something irrelevant to what I was talking about. After I had already corrected someone else for doing the exact same thing.

This forum has become such a f**king clown show. Unbelievable.

FTR, the discussion about the drunk map had more or less stopped and we (at least I) had moved on to discussing the possible suit (which has little merit congressionally, maybe it does on the legislative levels) so bringing up that map without any direct refence to it in the quoted comments is how you produce confusion. So that's how I got confused, we were having two parallel conversations.

[Antonio the Sixth]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.

Which for reference, is about as democratic VA-10 was in 2016.

Ye the proposed VA-10 in the new draft map should start out as at least lean D in 2022 if it stays as is. It basically voted in line with VA but is prolly more reacative that your average dostroct

Holy f**king sh*t. Three people in a row who don't bother to read the whole exchange, misunderstand what it's actually about, and just come in hot and ready to "correct" me with something irrelevant to what I was talking about. After I had already corrected someone else for doing the exact same thing.

This forum has become such a f**king clown show. Unbelievable.

FTR, the discussion about the drunk map had more or less stopped and we (at least I) had moved on to discussing the possible suit (which has little merit congressionally, maybe it does on the legislative levels) so bringing up that map without any direct refence to it in the quoted comments is how you produce confusion. So that's how I got confused, we were having two parallel conversations.

There has been a very direct exchange between me and Tim Turner going on at fairly regular intervals for the past few hours. You can recover the early part of the conversation easily by clicking on the earliest quoted paragraph (which yes, I had to cut off because otherwise the quote pyramid would become unwieldy).

You could have the maturity to take the L and move on like OBD did instead of making up excuses, you know.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

[UncleSam]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

Ya up until Ds become less packed into strongholds than Rs I’m going to consider a neutral year roughly D+1.5. If computers were drawing the lines that’s about where the popular vote would have to be for the house to be a tossup.

[jamestroll]

WHY DOES EVERYONE HAVE THIS FETISH THAT LOUDOUN COUNTY WILL BECOME A GOP COUNTY AGAIN?

Unless there is a mass exodus out of it due to remote work.. it will not be a gop county for the foreseeable future.  it is whiter and wealthier then Fairfax and Prince William, so it will not be as Democrat as them but still..

I never said it would vote for the GOP? Are you ok? You sound off your rocker. Take a chill pill and read my posts again.

I'm the first person to admit we don't know for certain how things will swing in the future and very much agree with your broader point regarding certainty. American politics are unpredictable.

But in a neutral year, Rs still likely lose the Loudoun district. It's got too high of a D baseline. It has Charlottesville, Loudoun, and part of Fairfax, which delivers a lot of Dem votes. It's R-winnable for sure, but if forced to bet on who wins the seat in anything but an R wave, I'd still chose the Democrats.

This district voted for Biden by 0.6 points. Hillary actually lost it by 6. To call it anything but lean R at this stage is delusional, and while speculation about future trends can be fun, it is just that, speculation.

0.6 Biden win is narrower than I had thought. I'd still consider it a tossup CD though, not a lean R one.
In any case, your contention was that in a neutral year, this would be 7D-4R. Implying that that Cheseapeake CD would also be flipping. I don't see it. Maybe further down the decade, perhaps.

The Chesapeake CD is more a pure tossup admittedly, but the Loundoun-Shenandoah one is objectively Lean R. Tilt R at the very least. It was basically tied in a D+5 year.

I think you mixed up the districts. Londoun-Shenadoah was Biden +9.

Which for reference, is about as democratic VA-10 was in 2016.

Ye the proposed VA-10 in the new draft map should start out as at least lean D in 2022 if it stays as is. It basically voted in line with VA but is prolly more reacative that your average dostroct

Holy f**king sh*t. Three people in a row who don't bother to read the whole exchange, misunderstand what it's actually about, and just come in hot and ready to "correct" me with something irrelevant to what I was talking about. After I had already corrected someone else for doing the exact same thing.

This forum has become such a f**king clown show. Unbelievable.

That new VA 10 did vote for Joe Biden by 9 points. It is not impossible for wexton to win though it will be tough.

I. WILL. NOT. TOLERATE. PEOPLE. WHO. SAY. LOUDOUN. WILL. BE. A. GOP. COUNTY. AT. ALL.

In fact, the people who for six months screamed that Youngkin would win Loudoun and possible Nova out right owe everyone a huge apology.

[Sol]

There's more to the map than what is done with Albemarle. In context of the rest of the map, I would favor keeping the county split as it is.

Why?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's more to the map than what is done with Albemarle. In context of the rest of the map, I would favor keeping the county split as it is.

Why?

I like the ultra-clean boundaries between the Richmond area districts. Changing the borders to unify Albemarle/Charlottesville is highly likely to be detrimental here.

[Sol]

There's more to the map than what is done with Albemarle. In context of the rest of the map, I would favor keeping the county split as it is.

Why?

I like the ultra-clean boundaries between the Richmond area districts. Changing the borders to unify Albemarle/Charlottesville is highly likely to be detrimental here.

I mean in all likelihood it will just mean splitting Powhatan or Goochland or Fluvanna, which is the same as far as splits are concerned but avoids splitting the Charlottesville area.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

There's more to the map than what is done with Albemarle. In context of the rest of the map, I would favor keeping the county split as it is.

Why?

I like the ultra-clean boundaries between the Richmond area districts. Changing the borders to unify Albemarle/Charlottesville is highly likely to be detrimental here.

I mean in all likelihood it will just mean splitting Powhatan or Goochland or Fluvanna, which is the same as far as splits are concerned but avoids splitting the Charlottesville area.

I think I've changed my mind now. I...was...enamored by the James River boundary, enough that I was willing to accept a split of Albemarle.
https://davesredistricting.org/join/43133e92-948d-4744-b6a2-349c7222d623
This however does the job just as well. It also probably improves compactness.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

I don't think moving the goalposts like this is helpful at all. Democrats win more often than not, yes, that's a fact worth considering in full and not artificially correcting for. The average year is not a neutral year, but a slightly Dem-leaning year. That doesn't change the fact that the partisan impact of a map should be assessed based on an actually neutral baseline.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

I don't think moving the goalposts like this is helpful at all. Democrats win more often than not, yes, that's a fact worth considering in full and not artificially correcting for. The average year is not a neutral year, but a slightly Dem-leaning year. That doesn't change the fact that the partisan impact of a map should be assessed based on an actually neutral baseline.

Ah, I see.
That confirms my suspicion we were working with different definitions.

[Torie]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

I don't think moving the goalposts like this is helpful at all. Democrats win more often than not, yes, that's a fact worth considering in full and not artificially correcting for. The average year is not a neutral year, but a slightly Dem-leaning year. That doesn't change the fact that the partisan impact of a map should be assessed based on an actually neutral baseline.

Ah, I see.
That confirms my suspicion we were working with different definitions.

We might as well sh**t-can the whole system and move to the German system which achieves strict proportionality in a division of the spoils even while using a first past the post system for a substantial number of seats. Federalism is a real pain in the butt. I have more or less adhered to that view since I was a bit older than knee high to a grass hopper. "State's rights" was about appealing to me as celibacy. Still is, even though I have slowed down a bit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

I don't think moving the goalposts like this is helpful at all. Democrats win more often than not, yes, that's a fact worth considering in full and not artificially correcting for. The average year is not a neutral year, but a slightly Dem-leaning year. That doesn't change the fact that the partisan impact of a map should be assessed based on an actually neutral baseline.

Ah, I see.
That confirms my suspicion we were working with different definitions.

We might as well sh**t-can the whole system and move to the German system which achieves strict proportionality in a division of the spoils even while using a first past the post system for a substantial number of seats. Federalism is a real pain in the butt. I have more or less adhered to that view since I was a bit older than knee high to a grass hopper. "State's rights" was about appealing to me as celibacy. Still is, even though I have slowed down a bit.

Were we as a country to move to a German-style system in that way, then CDs could get deviations up to 10 percent either way within states, with a minimum of one for every state. Levelling seats could be assigned on US Census subregion level, with a number of seats determined by population from the most recent US Census.

I might make a thread to allow for dedicated discussion of this counterfactual, if you are so inclined.

[Antonio the Sixth]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

I don't think moving the goalposts like this is helpful at all. Democrats win more often than not, yes, that's a fact worth considering in full and not artificially correcting for. The average year is not a neutral year, but a slightly Dem-leaning year. That doesn't change the fact that the partisan impact of a map should be assessed based on an actually neutral baseline.

Ah, I see.
That confirms my suspicion we were working with different definitions.

Fair enough. That's probably a good place to leave it off before another dumbass comes along not knowing what we're talking about and makes me lose my sh*t again.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is the baseline for "neutral year" that you are using?

A neutral year means one where the two parties are tied nationwide. I don't see what other definition there could be.

Ds have a coalition very slightly larger than Rs (something mitigated by the fact Ds do better in their strongest strongholds than Rs do in theirs).  Neutral year to me means D+1.5 in the two-party vote or something like that. 2016 I would consider to be a neutral year.

Rs have not often managed to tie Dems in terms of the vote in recent decades, and D coalition is the majority coalition in the country, albeit by a very teensy weensy tiny margin.

I don't think moving the goalposts like this is helpful at all. Democrats win more often than not, yes, that's a fact worth considering in full and not artificially correcting for. The average year is not a neutral year, but a slightly Dem-leaning year. That doesn't change the fact that the partisan impact of a map should be assessed based on an actually neutral baseline.

Ah, I see.
That confirms my suspicion we were working with different definitions.

Fair enough. That's probably a good place to leave it off before another dumbass comes along not knowing what we're talking about and makes me lose my sh*t again.

Have a good day, good Sir! Was nice chatting.

[lfromnj]

https://richmond.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/incumbents-are-an-afterthought-in-proposed-maps-for-state-house-and-senate/article_634d3898-390f-550d-9146-be16d282754f.html

lol.

[Skill and Chance]

People are making way too much out of a 2.5% average Dem advantage in the presidential PV since 2000 when 1. the presidential candidates know in advance they aren't competing for the PV and 2. narrow Dem presidential PV wins have not translated to downballot Dem control of anything- R's won the US House PV in 2016 and 2000. 

[Antonio the Sixth]

People are making way too much out of a 2.5% average Dem advantage in the presidential PV since 2000 when 1. the presidential candidates know in advance they aren't competing for the PV and 2. narrow Dem presidential PV wins have not translated to downballot Dem control of anything- R's won the US House PV in 2016 and 2000. 

To be fair, when you use methods like regression analysis to control for factors like uncontested seats, incumbency and other factors that affect Congressional votes, you do find that on most years Democrats do perform better than the baseline would suggest. This is especially the case for Senate elections (I ran my own model on this and it showed that the implied GCB for even a "bad" year like 2016 was actually something like D+5).

Again though, I think this is a data point to be highlighted rather than something to artificially correct for.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473143588057976840

WE HAVE THE BEST LEGAL TEAM DON'T WE FOLKS.

Richmmond county does exist but its some random rural in the NE of VA.

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1473143588057976840

WE HAVE THE BEST LEGAL TEAM DON'T WE FOLKS.

Richmmond county does exist but its some random rural in the NE of VA.

Yes, I think this is pretty much a done deal.  Some chance that all of Albemarle ends up in new VA-10 or a couple VRA districts get adjusted at the state legislative level, but that's about the most that can happen. 

[Torie]

The thing about the way VA-10 was drawn, is that it seems to track how the state as a whole goes in the popular vote. Youngkin won the state by 2 points, and VA-10 by 4 points. So if one makes it considerably more Democratic, that balance is lost. In that sense, it is a good partisan compromise. You don't include the entirety of both Loudoun and Abermarle in it.

[Gass3268]

Ummm, the new and finalized lines look very different from what was initially proposed.

https://twitter.com/BPaves/status/1475942553342070792?s=20

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ummm, the new and finalized lines look very different from what was initially proposed.

https://twitter.com/BPaves/status/1475942553342070792?s=20

Would this map force Spanberger to run in VA-01?