NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[Devout Centrist]

One crosstab is wrong. Trump won whites without a college degree by 37 points in 2016, not 26. That's a substantial swing back to the Democrats.

He's using 2016 pre-election polls as a reference, not exit polls. That's a better point of comparison.

Perhaps it's best to compare polls to polls, but it's also important to consider that 2020 may have undecided voters break more evenly.

[Sir Mohamed]

These numbers are weird, to say at least. Only FL and NC seem about accurate. But MI to the right of AZ and FL? Nah, not happening.

I might add that I don't buy the MI/WI/PA numbers showing Dems ahead by double digits for a minute. These polls here may overestimate Trump like him leading Warren by 6 in MI, but overall closer than Emerson's recent MI GE poll numbers.

Michigan could vote to the right of PA and WI in 2020. It's possible although Trump is likely to win all 3 again.

Trump isn't "likely" to win all 3 again. There's a remote chance it happens again, and if he's reelected, at least one of these states will go for him. WI is the most likely one, with PA and MI following, respectively.

You're wrong and clearly didn't watch the 2016 election. If Trump is winning WI he is likely winning MI and PA. There are similar voters in the Midwest.

There is no evidence that Trump is favored in these battlegrounds. It's not like GA, where Dems fell (narrowly) short in the midterms. I'm not saying it's impossible he wins 1,2 or 3 of these states, but neither polling nor election results since 2016 support the narrative of "Trump is favored". I'm not buying the double digit polling leads for Dems either, but if Trump is stuck at around 40% as sitting prez and has approvals underwater, I'd be worried if I was on his campaign.

[Cinemark]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

[bilaps]

These numbers are weird, to say at least. Only FL and NC seem about accurate. But MI to the right of AZ and FL? Nah, not happening.

I might add that I don't buy the MI/WI/PA numbers showing Dems ahead by double digits for a minute. These polls here may overestimate Trump like him leading Warren by 6 in MI, but overall closer than Emerson's recent MI GE poll numbers.

Michigan could vote to the right of PA and WI in 2020. It's possible although Trump is likely to win all 3 again.

Trump isn't "likely" to win all 3 again. There's a remote chance it happens again, and if he's reelected, at least one of these states will go for him. WI is the most likely one, with PA and MI following, respectively.

You're wrong and clearly didn't watch the 2016 election. If Trump is winning WI he is likely winning MI and PA. There are similar voters in the Midwest.

There is no evidence that Trump is favored in these battlegrounds. It's not like GA, where Dems fell (narrowly) short in the midterms. I'm not saying it's impossible he wins 1,2 or 3 of these states, but neither polling nor election results since 2016 support the narrative of "Trump is favored". I'm not buying the double digit polling leads for Dems either, but if Trump is stuck at around 40% as sitting prez and has approvals underwater, I'd be worried if I was on his campaign.

He's not stuck at around 40% here, he clearly polls at least at 44%. Also, why would midterm results be relevant for this cycle?

[SN2903]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

Right now it is clear Trump is doing better in MI than PA and WI slightly.

[krb08]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

That's from this set of polls? Interesting, especially FL/IA/NC

[SN2903]

These numbers are weird, to say at least. Only FL and NC seem about accurate. But MI to the right of AZ and FL? Nah, not happening.

I might add that I don't buy the MI/WI/PA numbers showing Dems ahead by double digits for a minute. These polls here may overestimate Trump like him leading Warren by 6 in MI, but overall closer than Emerson's recent MI GE poll numbers.

Michigan could vote to the right of PA and WI in 2020. It's possible although Trump is likely to win all 3 again.

Trump isn't "likely" to win all 3 again. There's a remote chance it happens again, and if he's reelected, at least one of these states will go for him. WI is the most likely one, with PA and MI following, respectively.

You're wrong and clearly didn't watch the 2016 election. If Trump is winning WI he is likely winning MI and PA. There are similar voters in the Midwest.

There is no evidence that Trump is favored in these battlegrounds. It's not like GA, where Dems fell (narrowly) short in the midterms. I'm not saying it's impossible he wins 1,2 or 3 of these states, but neither polling nor election results since 2016 support the narrative of "Trump is favored". I'm not buying the double digit polling leads for Dems either, but if Trump is stuck at around 40% as sitting prez and has approvals underwater, I'd be worried if I was on his campaign.

He's not stuck at around 40% here, he clearly polls at least at 44%. Also, why would midterm results be relevant for this cycle?

Exactly I am so sick of dems on this forum bringing up 2018. 2016 is a much bigger indicator for 2020 than 2018 because it was a presidential electorate and the voters that switched from Obama to Trump are still by in large with Trump in the Midwest. The turnout in 2018 was wealthier, more educated and a more favorable electorate to the democrats. Trump will turn out so many voters that showed up in 16 but not in 18.

[wbrocks67]

Interesting:

Will vote for Trump/will vote for the Dem nominee in 2020:

Wisconsin: 40/46%
Pennsylvania: 41/45%
Florida: 39/43%
Arizona: 41/44%
Michigan: 38/41%
Iowa: 41/43%
NC: 44/45%

A Generic Dem has the same result (+4) in Pennsylvania and... Florida?

[wbrocks67]

These numbers are weird, to say at least. Only FL and NC seem about accurate. But MI to the right of AZ and FL? Nah, not happening.

I might add that I don't buy the MI/WI/PA numbers showing Dems ahead by double digits for a minute. These polls here may overestimate Trump like him leading Warren by 6 in MI, but overall closer than Emerson's recent MI GE poll numbers.

Michigan could vote to the right of PA and WI in 2020. It's possible although Trump is likely to win all 3 again.

Trump isn't "likely" to win all 3 again. There's a remote chance it happens again, and if he's reelected, at least one of these states will go for him. WI is the most likely one, with PA and MI following, respectively.

You're wrong and clearly didn't watch the 2016 election. If Trump is winning WI he is likely winning MI and PA. There are similar voters in the Midwest.

There is no evidence that Trump is favored in these battlegrounds. It's not like GA, where Dems fell (narrowly) short in the midterms. I'm not saying it's impossible he wins 1,2 or 3 of these states, but neither polling nor election results since 2016 support the narrative of "Trump is favored". I'm not buying the double digit polling leads for Dems either, but if Trump is stuck at around 40% as sitting prez and has approvals underwater, I'd be worried if I was on his campaign.

He's not stuck at around 40% here, he clearly polls at least at 44%. Also, why would midterm results be relevant for this cycle?

Exactly I am so sick of dems on this forum bringing up 2018. 2016 is a much bigger indicator for 2020 than 2018 because it was a presidential electorate and the voters that switched from Obama to Trump are still by in large with Trump in the Midwest.

Trump remains marred around 45% though. He hasn't expanded his base from 2016 at all. Last minute deciders and undecideds break for the party out of power, which means the Dems might only be only a few % above now but are more likely to scoop up those voters.

[SN2903]

These numbers are weird, to say at least. Only FL and NC seem about accurate. But MI to the right of AZ and FL? Nah, not happening.

I might add that I don't buy the MI/WI/PA numbers showing Dems ahead by double digits for a minute. These polls here may overestimate Trump like him leading Warren by 6 in MI, but overall closer than Emerson's recent MI GE poll numbers.

Michigan could vote to the right of PA and WI in 2020. It's possible although Trump is likely to win all 3 again.

Trump isn't "likely" to win all 3 again. There's a remote chance it happens again, and if he's reelected, at least one of these states will go for him. WI is the most likely one, with PA and MI following, respectively.

You're wrong and clearly didn't watch the 2016 election. If Trump is winning WI he is likely winning MI and PA. There are similar voters in the Midwest.

There is no evidence that Trump is favored in these battlegrounds. It's not like GA, where Dems fell (narrowly) short in the midterms. I'm not saying it's impossible he wins 1,2 or 3 of these states, but neither polling nor election results since 2016 support the narrative of "Trump is favored". I'm not buying the double digit polling leads for Dems either, but if Trump is stuck at around 40% as sitting prez and has approvals underwater, I'd be worried if I was on his campaign.

He's not stuck at around 40% here, he clearly polls at least at 44%. Also, why would midterm results be relevant for this cycle?

Exactly I am so sick of dems on this forum bringing up 2018. 2016 is a much bigger indicator for 2020 than 2018 because it was a presidential electorate and the voters that switched from Obama to Trump are still by in large with Trump in the Midwest.

Trump remains marred around 45% though. He hasn't expanded his base from 2016 at all. Last minute deciders and undecideds break for the party out of power, which means the Dems might only be only a few % above now but are more likely to scoop up those voters.

That's not true. In 2004 and 2012 I think most of the last minutes broke for the incumbent. There is a hidden Trump vote I still believe that.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Look y’all it’s just one set of polls so lets all just rationally agree that system is broken, rural whites have effectively taken the nation hostage, and Dems will never win a presidential election again unless they throw minorities under the bus

[S019]

These look generally accurate, but the MI numbers are a bit too R friendly

This also is further evidence for the belief that Biden is the most electable, despite his gaffes

Hopefully, Democrats don’t mess up our chances of winning by nominating Warren

[bilaps]

Look y’all it’s just one set of polls so lets all just rationally agree that system is broken, rural whites have effectively taken the nation hostage, and Dems will never win a presidential election again unless they throw minorities under the bus

Trump is at 30% with Latinos

[Dr. Arch]

Interesting how different narratives combine to spur multiple page discussions depending on the poll.

One thing that most posters here seem to be forgetting is that, on top of the uncertainty of the sample (MoE), there are also methodological assumptions being made on each poll's model of the electorate.

A model based on 2016 might not work in 2020, and those models may fail to capture unregistered voters or unexpected changes in the composition of the electorate on the day of the election (e.g. more voters from younger generations show up, Democrats that didn't vote in 2016 in the Upper Midwest show up, etc.).

TL;DR: Don't read into this as more than a snapshot of a possible result from this electorate model if the election were held today. Barring polls that show extreme certainty in the outcome (consistent large margins), we should save ourselves the time and wait until the day of the election, rather than wasting time like this bickering about polls a year out.

[krb08]

Obviously these polls are good for Trump. What I don't get, though, is Biden in a tie w/ Trump in MI but ahead in FL? MOE and everything, but I don't see a scenario where FL is blue and MI isn't.

Based on Cohn's comments about their trouble polling MI I think their poll there should be taken with a grain of salt. The others are likely accurate though.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Look y’all it’s just one set of polls so lets all just rationally agree that system is broken, rural whites have effectively taken the nation hostage, and Dems will never win a presidential election again unless they throw minorities under the bus

Trump is at 30% with Latinos

My comment was a joke but still winning only 30% of a demographic isn’t a bragging point. His insane level of support from whites without college degrees is were he gets his power

[redjohn]

Very interestingly, the Wisconsin poll has the Biden vs Trump race in the Milwaukee suburbs as 45-47. That would be a stunning result; to put it in perspective, Trump won the suburbs against Clinton by a 30-point margin.

Still, the race in the state is only D+4.

[Yellowhammer]

Look y’all it’s just one set of polls so lets all just rationally agree that system is broken, rural whites have effectively taken the nation hostage, and Dems will never win a presidential election again unless they throw minorities under the bus

Trump is at 30% with Latinos

My comment was a joke but still winning only 30% of a demographic isn’t a bragging point. His insane level of support from whites without college degrees is we’re he gets his power

No need to keep blowing your bullhorn against rural whites. We get it -- you really don't like them. 

[Hindsight was 2020]

Look y’all it’s just one set of polls so lets all just rationally agree that system is broken, rural whites have effectively taken the nation hostage, and Dems will never win a presidential election again unless they throw minorities under the bus

Trump is at 30% with Latinos

My comment was a joke but still winning only 30% of a demographic isn’t a bragging point. His insane level of support from whites without college degrees is we’re he gets his power

No need to keep blowing your bullhorn against rural whites. We get it -- you really don't like them. 

Sorry but it’s hard not to notice he loses every demographic but one and it’s because of that one demographic that Trump never faces consequences for the horrible things he said or done. Sorry if I’m not being pc for you

[SN2903]

These look generally accurate, but the MI numbers are a bit too R friendly

This also is further evidence for the belief that Biden is the most electable, despite his gaffes

Hopefully, Democrats don’t mess up our chances of winning by nominating Warren

He is their best candidate but it's not saying much. He is old and very gaffe prone. He is a worse candidate than Hillary in my opinion. Hillary at least had the competence argument going for her. Biden is showing signs of senility to put it mildly and the corruption issue plays into Trump's argument about the swamp.

[Hindsight was 2020]

These look generally accurate, but the MI numbers are a bit too R friendly

This also is further evidence for the belief that Biden is the most electable, despite his gaffes

Hopefully, Democrats don’t mess up our chances of winning by nominating Warren

He is their best candidate but it's not saying much. He is old and very gaffe prone. He is a worse candidate than Hillary in my opinion. Hillary at least had the competence argument going for her. Biden is showing signs of senility to put it mildly and the corruption issue plays into Trump's argument about the swamp.

Is it a requirement that to be a Trump supporter you can’t have any self awareness?

[Cinemark]

I think something that should give democrats pause is that there are quite a few Biden voters who think Warren and Sanders are too far to the left and wont vote for them. It certainly is giving me pause.

[Yellowhammer]

Look y’all it’s just one set of polls so lets all just rationally agree that system is broken, rural whites have effectively taken the nation hostage, and Dems will never win a presidential election again unless they throw minorities under the bus

Trump is at 30% with Latinos

My comment was a joke but still winning only 30% of a demographic isn’t a bragging point. His insane level of support from whites without college degrees is we’re he gets his power

No need to keep blowing your bullhorn against rural whites. We get it -- you really don't like them. 

Sorry but it’s hard not to notice he loses every demographic but one and it’s because of that one demographic that Trump never faces consequences for the horrible things he said or done. Sorry if I’m not being pc for you

What kind of “consequences” are you speaking of?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

Hmm... wouldn't be so sure about that. Maybe an outlier, but I think MI will vote to the right of PA at least.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Very interestingly, the Wisconsin poll has the Biden vs Trump race in the Milwaukee suburbs as 45-47. That would be a stunning result; to put it in perspective, Trump won the suburbs against Clinton by a 30-point margin.

Still, the race in the state is only D+4.

That will be an outlier as well. They won't swing that much.