NYT/Siena Polls of 6 Battleground States

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1191306291672756224

Suffice to say... I don't buy this. Trump's national average is literally -14, even worse than last year, and he is down to -20 in some national polls. National does not equal battleground, but there's no reason to suggest that his standing has IMPROVED in some aspects in the battlegrounds.

I also find it odd that Nate and co. did not give actual #s, just the margins.

Also also: Biden winning AZ more than Pennsylvania? Nah fam.

[Skye]

The Times/Siena poll of 3,766 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 13 to Oct. 26. The margin of sampling error for an individual state poll is plus or minus 4.4, except for Michigan at plus or minus 5.1 points. Together, the battleground sample has a margin of error of plus or minus 1.8 percentage points.

Also, I found this to be interesting:

The Biden voters who say Ms. Warren is too far to the left are relatively well educated and disproportionately reside in precincts that flipped from Mitt Romney in 2012 to Mrs. Clinton four years later. They oppose single-payer health care or free college, and they support the Republicans’ 2017 tax law. They are not natural Democratic voters: 41 percent consider themselves conservative; 20 percent say they’re Republican; 33 percent supported Mr. Trump or Mr. Johnson in 2016.

[wbrocks67]

Then you have likely voter model helping Trump instead of Republicans.

Oh, and white college educated doing *worse* for Bernie and Warren than HRC, despite that demographic moving further and further away from Trump.

FL and I guess NC is really the only ones that seem believable.

[Annatar]

Siena was accurate in 2018 because they more than other pollsters made the biggest effort to ensure that their samples matched up with voter file data and were representative of the electorate. I trust Nate Cohn is still doing that and that’s why I think they’re reliable. Even on trump approval when other trash pollsters were markedly off on trump approval state by state, Siena were the closest to the exit polls. I see no reason to believe why they would have changed their methodology to be wrong.

[SnowLabrador]

My gut tells me Biden would be a poor choice to go against Trump. I just really hope Bernie and/or Warren aren't too far left for the suburbs that delivered Democrats the House last year.

[Cinemark]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

[wbrocks67]

Full results:

PENNSYLVANIA
Biden 47% - Trump 44%
Trump 45% - Warren 44%
Sanders 45% - Trump 44%

ARIZONA
Biden 50% - Trump 45%
Warren 47% - Trump 45%
Trump 47% - Sanders 46%

FLORIDA
Biden 46% - Trump 44%
Trump 45% - Warren 41%
Trump 45% - Sanders 44%

IOWA
Trump 45% - Biden 44%
Trump 47% - Warren 40%
Trump 47% - Sanders 43%

MICHIGAN
Trump 45% - Biden 44%
Trump 46% - Warren 39%
Sanders 45% - Trump 43%

NORTH CAROLINA
Trump 48% - Biden 46%
Trump 47% - Warren 44%
Trump 48% - Sanders 45%

WISCONSIN
Biden 47% - Trump 43%
Warren 46% - Trump 46%
Sanders 47% - Trump 45%

[Skye]

Cohn uploaded the crosstabs here: https://github.com/ndcohn/battleground-poll-2019

Overall (6 states):
Biden 46
Trump 45

Trump 46
Warren 44

Trump 45
Sanders 45

AZ:
Biden 50
Trump 45

Warren 47
Trump 45

Trump 47
Sanders 46

FL:
Biden 46
Trump 44

Trump 45
Warren 41

Trump 45
Sanders 44

MI:
Trump 45
Biden 44

Trump 46
Warren 39

Sanders 45
Trump 43

NC:
Trump 48
Biden 46

Trump 47
Warren 44

Trump 48
Sanders 45

PA:
Biden 47
Trump 44

Trump 45
Warren 44

Sanders 45
Trump 44

WI:
Biden 47
Trump 43

Warren 46
Trump 46

Sanders 47
Trump 45

IA (not part of this poll):
Trump 45
Biden 44

Trump 47
Warren 40

Trump 47
Sanders 43

Trump 45
Buttigieg 41

[Frenchrepublican]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

I totally agree. PA/NC/WI are very plausible but MI and FL numbers are hard to swallow

[wbrocks67]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

I totally agree. PA/NC/WI are very plausible but MI and FL numbers are hard to swallow

Right... Biden is somehow winning FL by 2 but tying in Michigan?

The only caveat to these #s is most only add up to about ~90% so the last minute deciders will be key again like 2016, where they broke for Trump. I just don't imagine them breaking for him this time.

[wbrocks67]

This seems unlikely:

The Trump voters who supported Democrats in the midterms say they'll back Trump by 2-1 margins
Trump leads all in Obama-Trump counties, precincts

[Skye]

Fun tidbits I found:

AZ: Phoenix: Biden 58-Trump 35. IIRC the city vote was Clinton 54-Trump 39.

FL: Miami-Dade is Biden 61-Trump 32. Warren 52-Trump 32. Overall, Hispanics break 56-36 to Biden, and 46-38 to Warren. Maybe that explains the disparity in Dade.

WI: "Milwaukee suburbs" (who knows if it's just Milwaukee county excluding the city, or if it also includes the WOW counties): Trump wins: 47/45 against Biden, 49/42 against Warren, and 51/42 against Sanders. Dane county: Biden up 64/25, Warren up 60/30 (lol), Sanders up 64/29.

[Cinemark]

Im not gonna pick apart Siena, especially after 2018. Its not surprising that Trump is holding up better in the midwest compared to the other regions of the country.

I also wished they polled his job approvals. He was at 45/54 in 2018 exit polls, that seems about where he still is in these states too. Maybe a few points better than that.

[wbrocks67]

The PA poll has Biden only +13 in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh)... sure, Jan

[2016]

Democrats are still unable to cut into Trumps lead among White Non-College Voters. Exit Polls 2016 showed Trump winning them by 26 Points, according to these NY/Siena Polls Trump leads Biden by 24 Points.

Conclusion: Democrats have completely abandoned Rural America. If they don't cut into Trumps lead soon there they will be again at the losing End of a Presidential Election.

[wbrocks67]

Democrats are still unable to cut into Trumps lead among White Non-College Voters. Exit Polls 2016 showed Trump winning them by 26 Points, according to these NY/Siena Polls Trump leads Biden by 24 Points.

Conclusion: Democrats have completely abandoned Rural America. If they don't cut into Trumps lead soon there they will be again at the losing End of a Presidential Election.

How have they abandoned them? More like Rural Voters refuse to vote for Democrats, no matter what Democrats do. It's a losing battle.

[Wiz in Wis]

1) I think these polls are all believable, and people shouldn't freak out about minor differences between states. Sampling error and unexpected shifts will happen. Maybe AZ and FL are shifting more D than we think, and maybe PA is less D than we think, we don't know.

2) Looking into crosstabs is a terrible idea. Those are even smaller margins of error. Don't look at one weird result and be like "The whole poll is trash!"

3) I do wonder if these polls are really "good news" for Trump. He's lower in these states, even against Warren, than he was in 2020. Undecided at his point aren't likely to break for him, unlike 2016.

[Annatar]

Im not gonna pick apart Siena, especially after 2018. Its not surprising that Trump is holding up better in the midwest compared to the other regions of the country.

I also wished they polled his job approvals. He was at 45/54 in 2018 exit polls, that seems about where he still is in these states too. Maybe a few points better than that.

In the swing states in the 2018 exit polls he was at 51% approval in Florida, 50% in Arizona, 48% in Wisconsin and 45% in Pennsylvania & Michigan.

[RI]

I suspect this is closer to the truth than most polls. Most pollsters have sh**t methodology.

[slothdem]

I know Sienna is very accurate, but some of these numbers are hard to swallow. Michigan being to the right of Florida and Arizona being the biggest red flag.

I totally agree. PA/NC/WI are very plausible but MI and FL numbers are hard to swallow

Right... Biden is somehow winning FL by 2 but tying in Michigan?

The only caveat to these #s is most only add up to about ~90% so the last minute deciders will be key again like 2016, where they broke for Trump. I just don't imagine them breaking for him this time.

Cohn said that they had the smallest sample in Michigan by a lot and that it was harder to reach people. I think it's probavly off, the Warren numbers are especially implausible. The rest of the numbers are believable though, and the Arizona numbers make me wish we got polls of Georgia and Texas.

[Cinemark]

Im not gonna pick apart Siena, especially after 2018. Its not surprising that Trump is holding up better in the midwest compared to the other regions of the country.

I also wished they polled his job approvals. He was at 45/54 in 2018 exit polls, that seems about where he still is in these states too. Maybe a few points better than that.

In the swing states in the 2018 exit polls he was at 51% approval in Florida, 50% in Arizona, 48% in Wisconsin and 45% in Pennsylvania & Michigan.

Yes, and this seems to show Trump with similar numbers in the midwest and falling elsewhere.

[Zaybay]

Its really important to note that Trump is only at about 45% except in NC, where he's at 47%, and IA, which has Trump at 45-47%. We are a year out as well, so dont start freaking out or cheering because of this poll.

[bilaps]

Easily the best Trump polls since 2016

And people not beleiving it of course. What a surprise

[Podgy the Bear]

Not surprised to see Warren getting dumpstered.

Why would anyone be surprised?  She has little appeal outside the Democratic base.  Won’t win next year.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

This seems unlikely:

The Trump voters who supported Democrats in the midterms say they'll back Trump by 2-1 margins
Trump leads all in Obama-Trump counties, precincts

The first part is likely when you consider a lot of the candidates in the midterms ran more centrist than what the presidential candidates are generally talking about right now.

The second part is weird and in any case who is leading in what county and precinct is going to have such a huge margin of error so as to be completely meaningless, aside from very populated counties.