North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

That map feel very icarusy to me. I could image some, if not all, of the Biden ~46% seats flipping by the end of the decade.

What do you think is the worst-case scenario for Rs in 2030? The best-case? And the median?

Best case scenario would be the start tacking a little to the right as the suburbs stabilize and the rurals turn more red. Worst case is Wake/Mecklenburg start growing like Atlanta as the cost of living in the rest of the country continues to spiral and end up voting like Fulton. Median would be somewhere between, a small democratic swing but growth slows by the end of decade.

I meant in seat count. Thanks for the reply either way, of course.

Ah do you mean your map or in general.

My map.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Worst case from your map would be around 3-4 Republican seats flipping in a 2018 style wave so 6-8. I have a feeling the southern wake strip would vote more democratic then not so it’ll function closer to a 3-11, with one or two seats being continuously competitive.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Behold!
A clean-ish 12R-2D map!
https://davesredistricting.org/join/2aca0b34-1714-412c-844c-1576392cf6b6

Nice job!

I personally don't think the political willpower would be quite there for this, and district 7 and 2 could very easily become liabilities. I also don't think they'd completely butcher the black belt, but instead make a swingy or slightly R leaning district that should shift right throughout the decade without completely dismantling NC-01 (as the overturned gerrymander did).

[Vern]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/34e17654-8a0f-48dc-a291-64bd60510faa

I could see the map ending up looking something like this. This map is a 10-3-1 map.

[Torie]

Let the take no prisoners gerrymander begin.

https://twitter.com/marceelias/status/1651974129938046978?t=cCqyuUWuNlZqBsKfig4Vew&s=19

[Devils30]

This will end the ISL case at the Supreme Court, GOP will net 3-4 in NC but Dems probably will get 1-2 back from Wisconsin. WI's legislature never actually passed a map into law (no bill signed) so Dems are probably only down 1-2 seats and that's before any Hochulmander could be reinstated.

[Nyvin]

So here comes NC's fifth map in less than 7 years

[Mr.Phips]

New York, it’s your turn.

[Torie]

Here is my best effort to balance beauty and efficacy for the Pubmander. Will the Pubs show this much restraint, or will they be inspired by the Illinois map to try to snatch another CD?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b6998b4-28cf-4fcd-bbb5-8e38b874c4c9



I don't think the Dems will get much out of WI and NY. We shall see.

[Nyvin]

Chances are better than not that they just remake the 2021 map they originally passed.  It did leave NC-1 (then NC-2) as competitive but with an R trend.  The only exception might be removing Watauga from NC-14 now that Cawthorn is gone.

https://spectrumlocalnews.com/nc/charlotte/politics/2021/11/04/redistricting-in-n-c---new-maps-approved--favoring-gop

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here is my best effort to balance beauty and efficacy for the Pubmander. Will the Pubs show this much restraint, or will they be inspired by the Illinois map to try to snatch another CD?

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8b6998b4-28cf-4fcd-bbb5-8e38b874c4c9



I don't think the Dems will get much out of WI and NY. We shall see.

Even if Ds do net something out of WI or NY enough to "cancel out" NC, that's still a huge net loss. 2 relatively fair maps are better than 2 gerrymanders that cancel out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

This is what I think will happen:

Congressional: Likely 3-1-10, with the swing seat being a predecessor to the current NC-01 the GOP counts of continuing to shift right. Map is likely similar to the one that was originally overturned, but makes some minor changes now that there's different sets of incumbents and we've seen another cycle of political shifts.

State Sen: Honestly, it's not hard to lock the GOP into a supermajority without doing anything too absurd; the GOP already won a supermajority in 2022 with just a slightly R favorable year. I expect a map similar to the current one that just makes some optimizations so in your average year, the GOP gets to about 32 seats, and basically locks in a supermajority. I don't expect them to be super aggressive with cracking up suburbs of Charlotte and Raliegh, especially given the 2022 results; I think most emphasis will be on the black-belt and more mid-sized cities like Fayetteville, Greensboro, and Wilmington.

State House: This is honestly more difficult to *lock-in* a GOP supermajority, but you can do it so the GOP should be favored in a normal cycle. Again, I expect the biggest point of contention to be the black-belt seats and seats around smaller D-leaning communities. Especially on the state House level, I doubt we'll see GOP aggressively try to bacon-strip out suburbs, but def try to shore up incumbents (rmbr County-splitting rrule is still in place too, so it's literally impossible to squeeze much out of Mecklenburg and Wake Counties).

[Sol]

This is what I think will happen:

Congressional: Likely 3-1-10, with the swing seat being a predecessor to the current NC-01 the GOP counts of continuing to shift right. Map is likely similar to the one that was originally overturned, but makes some minor changes now that there's different sets of incumbents and we've seen another cycle of political shifts.

State Sen: Honestly, it's not hard to lock the GOP into a supermajority without doing anything too absurd; the GOP already won a supermajority in 2022 with just a slightly R favorable year. I expect a map similar to the current one that just makes some optimizations so in your average year, the GOP gets to about 32 seats, and basically locks in a supermajority. I don't expect them to be super aggressive with cracking up suburbs of Charlotte and Raliegh, especially given the 2022 results; I think most emphasis will be on the black-belt and more mid-sized cities like Fayetteville, Greensboro, and Wilmington.

State House: This is honestly more difficult to *lock-in* a GOP supermajority, but you can do it so the GOP should be favored in a normal cycle. Again, I expect the biggest point of contention to be the black-belt seats and seats around smaller D-leaning communities. Especially on the state House level, I doubt we'll see GOP aggressively try to bacon-strip out suburbs, but def try to shore up incumbents (rmbr County-splitting rrule is still in place too, so it's literally impossible to squeeze much out of Mecklenburg and Wake Counties).

This seems right to me, though there's some speculation that they might try and overturn the county splitting rules with the newly favorable court.

[GALeftist]

Out of curiosity, I tried what they did last cycle combining Northeastern Black communities with Durham, but at this point Wake County is getting so big and blue that it's honestly not worth it imo. If I were the NCGOP I'd just draw basically what they drew the first time around and wait for NC-01 to fall into their laps down the line.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is what I think will happen:

Congressional: Likely 3-1-10, with the swing seat being a predecessor to the current NC-01 the GOP counts of continuing to shift right. Map is likely similar to the one that was originally overturned, but makes some minor changes now that there's different sets of incumbents and we've seen another cycle of political shifts.

State Sen: Honestly, it's not hard to lock the GOP into a supermajority without doing anything too absurd; the GOP already won a supermajority in 2022 with just a slightly R favorable year. I expect a map similar to the current one that just makes some optimizations so in your average year, the GOP gets to about 32 seats, and basically locks in a supermajority. I don't expect them to be super aggressive with cracking up suburbs of Charlotte and Raliegh, especially given the 2022 results; I think most emphasis will be on the black-belt and more mid-sized cities like Fayetteville, Greensboro, and Wilmington.

State House: This is honestly more difficult to *lock-in* a GOP supermajority, but you can do it so the GOP should be favored in a normal cycle. Again, I expect the biggest point of contention to be the black-belt seats and seats around smaller D-leaning communities. Especially on the state House level, I doubt we'll see GOP aggressively try to bacon-strip out suburbs, but def try to shore up incumbents (rmbr County-splitting rrule is still in place too, so it's literally impossible to squeeze much out of Mecklenburg and Wake Counties).

This seems right to me, though there's some speculation that they might try and overturn the county splitting rules with the newly favorable court.

If the county splitting rules were overturned, what would replace them?

[Tekken_Guy]

This is what I think will happen:

Congressional: Likely 3-1-10, with the swing seat being a predecessor to the current NC-01 the GOP counts of continuing to shift right. Map is likely similar to the one that was originally overturned, but makes some minor changes now that there's different sets of incumbents and we've seen another cycle of political shifts.

State Sen: Honestly, it's not hard to lock the GOP into a supermajority without doing anything too absurd; the GOP already won a supermajority in 2022 with just a slightly R favorable year. I expect a map similar to the current one that just makes some optimizations so in your average year, the GOP gets to about 32 seats, and basically locks in a supermajority. I don't expect them to be super aggressive with cracking up suburbs of Charlotte and Raliegh, especially given the 2022 results; I think most emphasis will be on the black-belt and more mid-sized cities like Fayetteville, Greensboro, and Wilmington.

State House: This is honestly more difficult to *lock-in* a GOP supermajority, but you can do it so the GOP should be favored in a normal cycle. Again, I expect the biggest point of contention to be the black-belt seats and seats around smaller D-leaning communities. Especially on the state House level, I doubt we'll see GOP aggressively try to bacon-strip out suburbs, but def try to shore up incumbents (rmbr County-splitting rrule is still in place too, so it's literally impossible to squeeze much out of Mecklenburg and Wake Counties).

The GOP got to exactly 30 seats in the state senate and that’s through winning a swing seat in New Hanover. Seat 31 for them is probably in north Wake County, but I don’t see where seat 32 is for them. Making any of them Safe R is a tough order.

[Mr.Phips]

This is what I think will happen:

Congressional: Likely 3-1-10, with the swing seat being a predecessor to the current NC-01 the GOP counts of continuing to shift right. Map is likely similar to the one that was originally overturned, but makes some minor changes now that there's different sets of incumbents and we've seen another cycle of political shifts.

State Sen: Honestly, it's not hard to lock the GOP into a supermajority without doing anything too absurd; the GOP already won a supermajority in 2022 with just a slightly R favorable year. I expect a map similar to the current one that just makes some optimizations so in your average year, the GOP gets to about 32 seats, and basically locks in a supermajority. I don't expect them to be super aggressive with cracking up suburbs of Charlotte and Raliegh, especially given the 2022 results; I think most emphasis will be on the black-belt and more mid-sized cities like Fayetteville, Greensboro, and Wilmington.

State House: This is honestly more difficult to *lock-in* a GOP supermajority, but you can do it so the GOP should be favored in a normal cycle. Again, I expect the biggest point of contention to be the black-belt seats and seats around smaller D-leaning communities. Especially on the state House level, I doubt we'll see GOP aggressively try to bacon-strip out suburbs, but def try to shore up incumbents (rmbr County-splitting rrule is still in place too, so it's literally impossible to squeeze much out of Mecklenburg and Wake Counties).

This seems right to me, though there's some speculation that they might try and overturn the county splitting rules with the newly favorable court.

Wasn’t it actually a Republican controlled court that originally put the county splitting rules in place?

[Vern]

So any word on when we should expect a new map?

[Sol]

Since I'm a masochist, I've been playing around with a maximalist NCGOP gerrymander.

The landscape for NC redistricting post-Allen v. Milligan is interesting -- Republicans have pretty much obliterated most previous constraints on their gerrymandering, except now they can't get rid of NC-01 like they wanted. I figured they might go with a map which shores up NC-01 instead.

link



It's 10-3-1, with NC-06 as a narrow Trump district, functionally Lean R.

You could probably tighten this up more, especially with 14.

[patzer]

Don't think the court would look too fondly on cutting the number of seats with significant black populations from 3 to 2 with the elimination of the Durham seat, given that 3 is the proportional number for the state's demographics.

[Mr.Phips]

Since I'm a masochist, I've been playing around with a maximalist NCGOP gerrymander.

The landscape for NC redistricting post-Allen v. Milligan is interesting -- Republicans have pretty much obliterated most previous constraints on their gerrymandering, except now they can't get rid of NC-01 like they wanted. I figured they might go with a map which shores up NC-01 instead.

link



It's 10-3-1, with NC-06 as a narrow Trump district, functionally Lean R.

You could probably tighten this up more, especially with 14.

Actually a not a bad map and it doesn’t pull crap like splitting Greensboro and Winston Salem.

[Sol]

Don't think the court would look too fondly on cutting the number of seats with significant black populations from 3 to 2 with the elimination of the Durham seat, given that 3 is the proportional number for the state's demographics.

NC-04 is majority white, and less than 30% Black.

[Tekken_Guy]

Since I'm a masochist, I've been playing around with a maximalist NCGOP gerrymander.

The landscape for NC redistricting post-Allen v. Milligan is interesting -- Republicans have pretty much obliterated most previous constraints on their gerrymandering, except now they can't get rid of NC-01 like they wanted. I figured they might go with a map which shores up NC-01 instead.

link



It's 10-3-1, with NC-06 as a narrow Trump district, functionally Lean R.

You could probably tighten this up more, especially with 14.

That south Wake seat is a little too close for comfort for Republicans. They’d probably pull it out into more rural areas like going deeper into Wayne County.

[GALeftist]

Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

You can draw a more black seat, but VRA seats don’t require black majority, just one that lets black voters elect the candidate of their choosing.