North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

Republicans won both state supreme court seats, so now have a 5-2 majority. NC is in for some brutal mid-cycle redistricting.

They have a 4-3 majority, one of the judges running was an R already.

No im pretty sure it is 5-2. Both seats were held by D's.

[Devils30]

I wonder if they will go for 11-3 or just give Davis NC-1 and create a safe 10-4 map to avoid the risk of losing multiple seats in a future wave.

[lfromnj]

I wonder if they will go for 11-3 or just give Davis NC-1 and create a safe 10-4 map to avoid the risk of losing multiple seats in a future wave.

I mean the original map was 10 1 3 and davis would have lost this year in that map even against Sandy Smith.

[Sol]

Here's a potential NCGOP unleashed map post a possible SCOTUS VRA overruling.

link



All the R seats should be fairly safe; NC-01 is the most Democratic but is fairly polarized.

[Torie]

If Republicans win supermajorities and flip the court in 2022, could they make it so justices are elected by districts? Gerrymandered court districts fall pretty naturally if you create a Charlotte and Raliegh based seats and let the other 5 seats sort themselves out.

The NC governor has no veto power in NC, so a new map is a done deal.

https://governors.rutgers.edu/governors-and-the-redistricting-process/

[Torie]

Here's a potential NCGOP unleashed map post a possible SCOTUS VRA overruling.

link



All the R seats should be fairly safe; NC-01 is the most Democratic but is fairly polarized.

The one prong of the VRA that might be left standing is to ban gerrymanders that clearly fail to hew to neutral redistricting metrics that cause a seat to cease to be minority performing. So the Pubs in NC would be wise in a redraw to be able to persuasively defend a NC-01 that is not minority performing as not gerrymandered, even if another reasonable map would make it minority performing.

[Torie]

Here is a not totally insane but still quite butt ugly Pubmander that I quite loathe, and all it accomplishes over a nice pretty plausible denial Pubmander light map is move one seat from lean Dem to lean Pub.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7168d195-798f-4981-ab5f-11f31e34c904

[Sol]

Here's a potential NCGOP unleashed map post a possible SCOTUS VRA overruling.

link



All the R seats should be fairly safe; NC-01 is the most Democratic but is fairly polarized.

The one prong of the VRA that might be left standing is to ban gerrymanders that clearly fail to hew to neutral redistricting metrics that cause a seat to cease to be minority performing. So the Pubs in NC would be wise in a redraw to be able to persuasively defend a NC-01 that is not minority performing as not gerrymandered, even if another reasonable map would make it minority performing.

That's fair enough. You can NC-01 pretty reasonable if you remove all of Pitt from 1 in exchange for more of Nash/Franklin:



(obviously it makes NC-03 even worse)

Here is a not totally insane but still quite butt ugly Pubmander that I quite loathe, and all it accomplishes over a nice pretty plausible denial Pubmander light map is move one seat from lean Dem to lean Pub.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/7168d195-798f-4981-ab5f-11f31e34c904

Not a bad map at all. However, my suspicion, from following NC politics fairly closely, is that the court is pretty likely to rubberstamp whatever the NCGA draws even if it's pretty heinous. So I imagine that the Republicans are going to go for maximum advantage (and pleasing incumbents) over plausible deniability. If I'm wrong I bet they'll draw something like what you made.

[Torie]

Here is a version that makes NC-01 by detaching Greenville from it. The lines however look clean, and it was not a Gingles CD anyway, so it probably survives whatever will be left of the VRA. I think this map is about the best one can do, that does not have dummymander potential.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8e4bfba7-34a0-470a-bd5d-e92cd59eb8c8

[Tintrlvr]

Maybe you accomplish it by linking Durham to NC-01 for a majority-black seat that is super D and just sinking Chapel Hill? So the eliminated seat is the Durham-Chapel Hill seat instead of the NE black seat.

[Sol]

Maybe you accomplish it by linking Durham to NC-01 for a majority-black seat that is super D and just sinking Chapel Hill? So the eliminated seat is the Durham-Chapel Hill seat instead of the NE black seat.

You can definitely merge NC-04 and NC-01, though the result is as much a successor to the former as to the latter (and questionably legal?). Plurality Black though plurality white on CVAP.



(You can probably make this a little tidier but not a lot tidier without sacrificing BVAP--I drew this for another pretty maximalist R gerry thus the ugly lines)

Here is a version that makes NC-01 by detaching Greenville from it. The lines however look clean, and it was not a Gingles CD anyway, so it probably survives whatever will be left of the VRA. I think this map is about the best one can do, that does not have dummymander potential.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8e4bfba7-34a0-470a-bd5d-e92cd59eb8c8

Again not bad, but I think the Republicans would go a bit uglier to make NC-05, NC-06 NC-08, and NC-14 safer. There's no meaningful check on their capacity to gerrymander save the VRA so you can expect a reversion to post-2010 esque maps in at least the rest of the state outside the Northeast. Perhaps I'm wrong, idk, but that seems like the vibe from how Republicans tend to talk about these issues. Sorry to nitpick.

Torie, in your understanding of the VRA in the scenario you lay out, is there a way for Republicans to either turn NC-01 into either a lean R seat or a dem vote sink legally?

[Torie]

Maybe you accomplish it by linking Durham to NC-01 for a majority-black seat that is super D and just sinking Chapel Hill? So the eliminated seat is the Durham-Chapel Hill seat instead of the NE black seat.

You can definitely merge NC-04 and NC-01, though the result is as much a successor to the former as to the latter (and questionably legal?). Plurality Black though plurality white on CVAP.



(You can probably make this a little tidier but not a lot tidier without sacrificing BVAP--I drew this for another pretty maximalist R gerry thus the ugly lines)

Here is a version that makes NC-01 by detaching Greenville from it. The lines however look clean, and it was not a Gingles CD anyway, so it probably survives whatever will be left of the VRA. I think this map is about the best one can do, that does not have dummymander potential.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/8e4bfba7-34a0-470a-bd5d-e92cd59eb8c8

Again not bad, but I think the Republicans would go a bit uglier to make NC-05, NC-06 NC-08, and NC-14 safer. There's no meaningful check on their capacity to gerrymander save the VRA so you can expect a reversion to post-2010 esque maps in at least the rest of the state outside the Northeast. Perhaps I'm wrong, idk, but that seems like the vibe from how Republicans tend to talk about these issues. Sorry to nitpick.

Torie, in your understanding of the VRA in the scenario you lay out, is there a way for Republicans to either turn NC-01 into either a lean R seat or a dem vote sink legally?

In my map everything is pretty safe except NC-05 (51.5-47 Trump) and NC-06 (52-46 Trump). NC-06 is surrounded by marginal or hostile territory, so not much can be done about that. NC-05 could be made safer, but it would require the CD with surplus Pubs, NC-09, to have a long thin prong going into Winston Salem, and NC-05 then having a prong going the other way, as NC-08 takes in more of Goldsboro. The map would be a mess and a poster child for the Dems. The Pubs would be most unwise to go there. Pigs get fat, and hogs get slaughtered.

Like this:

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aa533672-f562-47cb-a759-2d584d631cc1




The current version of the VRA requires one to draw a "compact" CD that is 50% BVAP.  An ugly chop into Durham is not going to cut it, and certainly will not after Alito writes his opinion in a few months. But an ugly gerrymander that deprives blacks of a performing CD I think is still vulnerable. Thus, when snatching away a black performing CD, one should avoid erosity and unnecessary county chops. My NC-01 will nominate a black in a Dem primary, but in the General the district is swing. But it looks nice, and the county cuts follow municipal lines and are minimized. It should be pretty VRA proof. The surrounding CD's don't have a lot of Pubs to spare anyway.

[lfromnj]

By the way if anyone is interested , I think j miles said that NC01 was Beasly +0.2 this election.

[ProgressiveModerate]

By the way if anyone is interested , I think j miles said that NC01 was Beasly +0.2 this election.

It really seems like Dems suffered turnout issues with black voters, especially in the south and more rural/small town black communities. Furthermore, NC-01's black population (and overall population) is shrinking pretty fast). If I were the GOP, drawing something like a Biden + 2 seat (as was in their original map) should be a pretty good bet to zoom right this decade.

The area they'll need to be the most Strategic with is prolly Greensboro/Winston Salem area.

Also, we'll see if they cede 1 or 2 triangle sinks. At this point, 2 is more likely but 1 is still technically possible if you're willing to risk security.

[Sol]

By the way if anyone is interested , I think j miles said that NC01 was Beasly +0.2 this election.

It really seems like Dems suffered turnout issues with black voters, especially in the south and more rural/small town black communities. Furthermore, NC-01's black population (and overall population) is shrinking pretty fast). If I were the GOP, drawing something like a Biden + 2 seat (as was in their original map) should be a pretty good bet to zoom right this decade.

The area they'll need to be the most Strategic with is prolly Greensboro/Winston Salem area.

Also, we'll see if they cede 1 or 2 triangle sinks. At this point, 2 is more likely but 1 is still technically possible if you're willing to risk security.

1 triangle sink is just not worth it. Raleigh in particular is the kind of place where Democrats have been gaining tremendously--they won multiple precincts in Fuquay-Varina in 2020 for chrissake--and there's not that much deep red territory around to sink fairly Democratic precincts in outer Wake safely or neatly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

By the way if anyone is interested , I think j miles said that NC01 was Beasly +0.2 this election.

It really seems like Dems suffered turnout issues with black voters, especially in the south and more rural/small town black communities. Furthermore, NC-01's black population (and overall population) is shrinking pretty fast). If I were the GOP, drawing something like a Biden + 2 seat (as was in their original map) should be a pretty good bet to zoom right this decade.

The area they'll need to be the most Strategic with is prolly Greensboro/Winston Salem area.

Also, we'll see if they cede 1 or 2 triangle sinks. At this point, 2 is more likely but 1 is still technically possible if you're willing to risk security.

1 triangle sink is just not worth it. Raleigh in particular is the kind of place where Democrats have been gaining tremendously--they won multiple precincts in Fuquay-Varina in 2020 for chrissake--and there's not that much deep red territory around to sink fairly Democratic precincts in outer Wake safely or neatly.

I agree. Raleigh especially is not only one of those cities where the downtown is getting bluer but where it’s sphere of political influence is growing insanely fast. I think the GOP should basically just reimplement something akin to their old map if they’re smart

[Torie]

Here is a “new and improved” map that probably most effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. Brutal stuff. It in particular excises NC-01 from Wake County, while NC-13 still has a pretty good pad to survive the hostile trends going forward in the 10% or so of the CD that is in Wake County to take up the slack from NC-01.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aa533672-f562-47cb-a759-2d584d631cc1

[ProgressiveModerate]

Here is a “new and improved” map that probably most effectively leashes the Dems to 3 seats for the balance of the decade. Brutal stuff. It in particular excises NC-01 from Wake County, while NC-13 still has a pretty good pad to survive the hostile tends going forward in the 10% or so of the CD that is in Wake County to take up the slack from NC-01.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/aa533672-f562-47cb-a759-2d584d631cc1

Ceding 2 triangle sinks makes gerrymandering the eastern part of the state relatively easy because it's just enough to pick up most of the suburbs that are or could become liabilities for Rs.

One can also argue the Charlotte sink is pretty "natural" by just staying inside I-485

The nastiest part is always going to be Greensboro since in order to crack it, you have to reach around Winston-Salem and connect it to Appalachia. Your map handels it pretty well

[Devils30]

I wonder if Rs will just cede NC-1 with a Dem incumbent to create a 10-4 map designed to survive the decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I wonder if Rs will just cede NC-1 with a Dem incumbent to create a 10-4 map designed to survive the decade.

I don't think so. 2 sinks between Durham/Cary/Raleigh is enough to cover all the suburbs that could be liabilities this decade and then some. NC-01 is basically impossible to make above Biden + 10 without reaching into the Triangle cities, and it's also relatively easy to dilute. The black population here is shrinking like crazy so the seat would also be shifting hard right. Good chance a Biden + 2 seat on 2020 Pres numbers would be GOP for the entire decade.

Honestly if they cede a 4th sink, it's most likely to be from Greensboro-Winston Salem, but I doubt they will.

[Torie]

This is the least offensive NC map that creates safe Pub seats outside of 3 Dem vote sinks that with the constraints of my failing abilities, I was able to concoct.



It requires a chop of Greensboro to make it “work.”



Even though I got up a 5 am today (Dan and Roby were still asleep on the throne bed when I returned, but I digress) to drive 20 minutes into the hinterlands of the Taconic Hills to swim 20 laps at a high school pool (I have to exercise or die, and I not quite ready for the latter and the pool heater was on the fritz, so the water was quite frigid – pro tip, just dive in and for about 10 seconds pretend your fingernails are being pulled out without anesthetic, but this too will pass), I still feel like I need a shower now.  (Now you know why I will never do a ask Torie anything thread – you know far more than you ever wanted to know about the mouthy, opinionated geezer.)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08cda99f-f5b1-452f-9627-69567267b957

[Sol]

This is the least offensive NC map that creates safe Pub seats outside of 3 Dem vote sinks that with the constraints of my failing abilities that I was able to concoct.



It requires a chop of Goldsboro to make it “work.”



Even though I got up a 5 am today (Dan and Roby were still asleep on the throne bed when I returned, but I digress) to drive 20 minutes into the hinterlands of the Taconic Hills to swim 20 laps at a high school pool (I have to exercise or die, and I not quite ready for the latter and the pool heater was on the fritz, so the water was quite frigid – pro tip, just dive in and for about 10 seconds pretend your fingernails are being pulled out without anesthetic, but this too will pass), I still feel like I need a shower now.  (Now you know why I will never do a ask Torie anything thread – you know far more than you ever wanted to know about the mouthy, opinionated geezer.)

https://davesredistricting.org/join/08cda99f-f5b1-452f-9627-69567267b957

This strikes me as being pretty similar to what Republicans will probably actually draw, with maybe a little more ugliness to make NC-01 a bit more R. It looks a lot like the proposed maps that got shot down, in fact.

One thing that doesn't matter as much in terms of partisan numbers but which will almost certainly affect the shape of the final map is incumbent demands around Charlotte. Richard Hudson is from Concord, but was displaced eastward by the court, but he may want something like his old seat back. I could see Republicans trading territory between 5 and 14 on your map so that both stretch between suburban Charlotte and Greensboro.

[patzer]

If the Republicans are bold enough to do a mid decade gerrymander, I wonder who would likely win the primaries where Democrat incumbents get shoved together? Presumably Jeff Jackson and Alma Adams in a Charlotte district, and Wiley Nickel and Deborah Ross in a Raleigh one.

[lfromnj]

If the Republicans are bold enough to do a mid decade gerrymander, I wonder who would likely win the primaries where Democrat incumbents get shoved together? Presumably Jeff Jackson and Alma Adams in a Charlotte district, and Wiley Nickel and Deborah Ross in a Raleigh one.

Assuming Stein runs for Governor, Jackson would likely just go for AG. Ross should be pretty favored for the Raleigh seat.

[Sol]

If the Republicans are bold enough to do a mid decade gerrymander, I wonder who would likely win the primaries where Democrat incumbents get shoved together? Presumably Jeff Jackson and Alma Adams in a Charlotte district, and Wiley Nickel and Deborah Ross in a Raleigh one.

Assuming Stein runs for Governor, Jackson would likely just go for AG. Ross should be pretty favored for the Raleigh seat.

Jackson is wise enough to know that he probably doesn't have a shot against Adams. I'm not sure though if Jackson wouldn't just run for Governor though.

I assume Ross would also have the strong advantage against Nickel.