North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[Mr.Phips]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

25 Biden seats + 1 Clinton-Trump Exurban Raleigh/Black belt seat and 1 Clinton Trump Robeson county seat.

61 biden seats + D friendly as possible Robeson seat. (Make All Wake/Meck/Buncombe seats Safe D which is a total of 29.)'

This is basically a Texas style gerrymander more or less. NC Dem geography isn't really that bad legislatively overall. As I showed a fair senate map is probably 22 Biden seats but getting to that half way mark does seem a bit hard. They could just overturn the county provision and institute their own gerrymander from there I guess which would be the smart thing to do if they were going down this route anyway.

Wow nice job. Even if the court is partisan I don’t think they’d go that far; “worst case” would prolly be a Marcy Kaptur 2.0 situation which would actually prolly work out better in NC given the state is closer, or an “accidental” unpacking of Dem maps.

I think unfortunately for Dems, 2022 is prolly the wrong year even with the right maps, and at least one of 2024 or 2026 will prolly be the right year with the wrong maps

State legislative maps in NC can’t be redrawn mid decade.

[ProgressiveModerate]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

25 Biden seats + 1 Clinton-Trump Exurban Raleigh/Black belt seat and 1 Clinton Trump Robeson county seat.

61 biden seats + D friendly as possible Robeson seat. (Make All Wake/Meck/Buncombe seats Safe D which is a total of 29.)'

This is basically a Texas style gerrymander more or less. NC Dem geography isn't really that bad legislatively overall. As I showed a fair senate map is probably 22 Biden seats but getting to that half way mark does seem a bit hard. They could just overturn the county provision and institute their own gerrymander from there I guess which would be the smart thing to do if they were going down this route anyway.

Wow nice job. Even if the court is partisan I don’t think they’d go that far; “worst case” would prolly be a Marcy Kaptur 2.0 situation which would actually prolly work out better in NC given the state is closer, or an “accidental” unpacking of Dem maps.

I think unfortunately for Dems, 2022 is prolly the wrong year even with the right maps, and at least one of 2024 or 2026 will prolly be the right year with the wrong maps

State legislative maps in NC can’t be redrawn mid decade.

Oh then Dems have a viable shot at the legislature this decade prolly, we’ll see the maps though.

[BoiseBoy]

Thrown out map will likely be used as a baseline. Hoping to pass them by next Thursday.

https://twitter.com/MichaelWNCN/status/1491457823699779586?s=20&t=G-FwcC3iV2...

[lfromnj]

It would be funny if somehow Democrats actually end up winning at least one if not both chambers of the GA assembly in 2022 under the new Court map. This is extremely unlikely, though certainly not impossible.

Democrats are extremely lucky though that the County Splitting rules for districts are in place because it curbs GOP gerrymandering at least a bit.

The bad news for Dems in NC is their self-packing problem will probably get worse. Yes, some 50-50 suburbs are likely to get bluer, but the fact is most rural D areas are depopulating and getting redder by the day.

My guess is Dems will control NC legislature when/if the blue bubbles of the cities actually become close to a majority of the population

If you kept the GOP map in the senate but fixed the NE district here are the swing districts.

1 Exurban/Black mix that is Clinton Trump. Trended R for 2020.
One NE black seat that is Biden +4 and trending R
One Trump +8 seat that voted for Clinton based in Robeson.
One Cabarrus seat that had a very strong D trend in 2020
3 swing seats in Mecklenburg and Wake all of which have trended very D except the northern wake one which is partially blunted by rural Granville.

Overall 22 Biden seats and 28 Trump seats which seems relatively reasonable and a lot of Clinton -Trump / Trump- Biden seats which shows the map is quite responsive.

Ye I think the Court is kind of overplaying it's hand a bit when it comes to the state legislative maps, though I think what the GOP did with the NE really gave the impression they drew the entire map with bad faith.

It important to remember the court isn't an expert on redistricting, so a lot of their opinion will be based on visual observations and stuff.

Makes me think the court will implement a D-leaning map which may give Dems a narrow path but still a path to control one of the chambers in 2022.

25 Biden seats + 1 Clinton-Trump Exurban Raleigh/Black belt seat and 1 Clinton Trump Robeson county seat.

61 biden seats + D friendly as possible Robeson seat. (Make All Wake/Meck/Buncombe seats Safe D which is a total of 29.)'

This is basically a Texas style gerrymander more or less. NC Dem geography isn't really that bad legislatively overall. As I showed a fair senate map is probably 22 Biden seats but getting to that half way mark does seem a bit hard. They could just overturn the county provision and institute their own gerrymander from there I guess which would be the smart thing to do if they were going down this route anyway.

Wow nice job. Even if the court is partisan I don’t think they’d go that far; “worst case” would prolly be a Marcy Kaptur 2.0 situation which would actually prolly work out better in NC given the state is closer, or an “accidental” unpacking of Dem maps.

I think unfortunately for Dems, 2022 is prolly the wrong year even with the right maps, and at least one of 2024 or 2026 will prolly be the right year with the wrong maps

State legislative maps in NC can’t be redrawn mid decade.

There's a law stating court maps are interim only. It arguably conflicts with the constitution but so does the court making its own map when the constitution also states redistricting is the responsibility of the legislature which would probably be the basis as the GOP Court allowing a redraw. Reminder that unlike the congressional maps the legislative maps were not maximal gerrymanders. The state house could definitely shore up a few more seats for the GOP.

[Schiff for Senate]

I never want to hear again how the gop has a systemic bias in its favor

NY can have a 22-4 map and get away with it

Oregon can get away with its bs

Illinois can get away with its bs

These rulings always go in one direction. Always.

OR's map is hardly a gerrymander. Not nearly as bad as OH, NC, TX, GA, TN, to name a few. And all due respect, you are either blinded by partisanship or just blind if you think OR's map is even comparable to NC's (rejected!) map.

[lfromnj]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits from the bare minimum required for a map to have population equality.

[Schiff for Senate]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

[lfromnj]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

[OBD]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

Lfromnj is correct here. Give girlboss Kotek credit for this beautiful gerrymander, dammit!

[Sol]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

Lfromnj is correct here. Give girlboss Kotek credit for this beautiful gerrymander, dammit!

Agree with all this, plus I'd also add that the 2020 NC map, while not a horrible gerrymander, has the configuration of 8 and 9 which is pretty underhanded. Plus some of the lines between the other GOP districts are very ugly for sort of unecessary reasons.

[Schiff for Senate]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

You know that Eastern Oregon alone doesn't even have enough people for 1 full congressional district, right?

Here's my very fair map of OR (with East OR all in one seat), where I didn't even look at partisanship and focused on contiguity and compactness: https://districtr.org/plan/110808 .....Okay, never mind, I thought I could view the districts' partisanship when I was done but apparently no, I can't.

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

Lfromnj is correct here. Give girlboss Kotek credit for this beautiful gerrymander, dammit!

Agree with all this, plus I'd also add that the 2020 NC map, while not a horrible gerrymander, has the configuration of 8 and 9 which is pretty underhanded. Plus some of the lines between the other GOP districts are very ugly for sort of unecessary reasons.

It looks more like 10 GOP seats with a few that are wavering but which are still reddish?

[Sol]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

You know that Eastern Oregon alone doesn't even have enough people for 1 full congressional district, right?

Here's my very fair map of OR (with East OR all in one seat), where I didn't even look at partisanship and focused on contiguity and compactness: https://districtr.org/plan/110808 .....Okay, never mind, I thought I could view the districts' partisanship when I was done but apparently no, I can't.

I can't say this with absolute certainty since there isn't partisan data, but I suspect that your yellow and sea-green districts would be competitive to Republican-leaning.

(This is why people prefer DRA, btw).

It looks more like 10 GOP seats with a few that are wavering but which are still reddish?

I meant District 8 and District 9, fyi.

[lfromnj]

Oregons map is pretty close to NC. Both were clean but still quite brutal gerrymanders with merely 1 or 2 extra county splits.

Nope, they weren't even comparable.

The gerrymander in OR is tame, if there is one at all. 4-2 in OR is blantantly beneficial to the GOP and would require actively trying to carve a second red seat. Maybe 4-1-1 is fairer than 5-1, but honestly, neither of them are that bad.

NC, on the other hand...If you ask me the maps used in the 2020 elections (8-5) were about fair. Instead, the NCGOP - whose congressional maps have now been struck down thrice by various courts over the past decade - decided to kill the possible fair combinations (8-5-1 or even 8-6) and went with a 10-3-1. The old maps that were twice struck down were 10-3. So this decision is based and completely justified. The NCGOP can keep getting their maps overturned unless and until they get into their heads that blatant partisan gerrymanders aren't flying anymore (and yes, I know blue states like IL, NY and MD have even worse gerrymanders, but NC has a much longer and more inflammatory recent history of gerrymandering).

How is 4-2 blatantly beneficial? Draw a map in Oregon that keeps all of Eastern Oregon whole. It's most likely going to be 2 Safe D 1 Likely D in the Portland suburbs and 1 tossup and finally a Lean D or Lean R in the south. Also of course a Safe R eastern seat.

You know that Eastern Oregon alone doesn't even have enough people for 1 full congressional district, right?

Here's my very fair map of OR (with East OR all in one seat), where I didn't even look at partisanship and focused on contiguity and compactness: https://districtr.org/plan/110808 .....Okay, never mind, I thought I could view the districts' partisanship when I was done but apparently no, I can't.

I can't say this with absolute certainty since there isn't partisan data, but I suspect that your yellow and sea-green districts would be competitive to Republican-leaning.

(This is why people prefer DRA, btw).

It looks more like 10 GOP seats with a few that are wavering but which are still reddish?

I meant District 8 and District 9, fyi.

Yellow is Trump +2 I think and Green is Biden +1 to 2. His Portland area is relatively Dem favorable and I think all 3 seats there are Safe but I will admit the region is a bit weird to draw. It isn't unreasonable to have 3 Safe seats there.

[Sol]

tfw the map you drew refutes your own point

[Schiff for Senate]

tfw the map you drew refutes your own point

I wasn't even sure how to feel - it was just anticlimatic when I discovered they'd removed political data from OR for some reason (and yeah, I do admit DRA is much more reliable in this regard).

[lfromnj]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article258300538.html
Torie should love this case.

[Sol]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article258300538.html
Torie should love this case.

Really doubt that the court will rule in favor of this--it's just a legal strategy by the NAACP to delay voter ID for as long as possible.

[Torie]

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/politics-government/article258300538.html
Torie should love this case.

I love it.

1. A court draws the lines because no one but them can parse what natural rights or equal protection means, or to effect proportionality.

2. The court has a personnel change, and it deems the map the prior court drew a gerrymander, and not only ditches the map, but all the laws the gerrymandered legislature passed, so the new regime need not go to all the trouble or repealing the laws one by one.

3. The most important elections in the state are now court elections. That is where the big bucks go, and the voters realizing that who is governor or in the legislature is now bedside the point, because the court is not only writing the laws, but also in effect picking who is in the legislature, don't bother to vote much for those offices. In fact, many are elected to the legislature who run solely to get the 12K a year paycheck, and then never even show up to legislative sessions, because the per diem is not high enough to induce them to show up.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MurphinNC/status/1493273798430371847?cxt=HHwWjsC5vfSmlrkpAAA...

Wait they won't fix the only actually gerrymandered district?

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/DallasWoodhouse/status/1493344287983120388

I maintain that the NCGOP would have saved themselves so much grief had they not gotten greedy and cracked Greensboro.

[Antonio the Sixth]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

[lfromnj]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

Sandhills should be Clinton Trump. Its a small struggle to draw a Biden district there.

[Antonio the Sixth]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

Sandhills should be Clinton Trump. Its a small struggle to draw a Biden district there.

Ah, interesting. Well, we'll see how it looks like in the end. As long as it's a good-faith effort to respect natural geography, I'm fine with it.

[Tekken_Guy]

7-5-2 is a great deal for a state like NC, at least if the 2 swing districts are genuine swing districts (ie went for Biden narrowly).

I guess the 5 D districts are
-Black Belt
-Raleigh
-Durham/Chapel Hill
-Greensboro/Winston Salem
-Charlotte

And the 2 swing districts are
-Sandhills (trending R)
-Raleigh suburbs (trending D)

And 7 safe R districts including a Charlotte suburbs district that’s rapidly trending D but is countered by the R trend in the Black Belt seat.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hot take- In this environment and given the trends in the black belt/results in similar seats, the black belt seat will flip unless they add Durham to it or something like that