North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[lfromnj]

If there's a concern about Butterfield you could also draw something like this, pronging into Raleigh instead of Durham.



It has the advantage of relieving the pressure on ENC, thereby allowing for more logical districts--though obviously it's still not optimal. Eastern Wake County is also getting a good bit Blacker, which might help too if there are concerns about a decline in minority communities in the Northeast.

Well I still believe that a rural coi is key im merely commentating on what could happen

[Alcibiades]

If there's a concern about Butterfield you could also draw something like this, pronging into Raleigh instead of Durham.



It has the advantage of relieving the pressure on ENC, thereby allowing for more logical districts--though obviously it's still not optimal. Eastern Wake County is also getting a good bit Blacker, which might help too if there are concerns about a decline in minority communities in the Northeast.

Well I still believe that a rural coi is key im merely commentating on what could happen

There’s no problem in the rest of the South with creating VRA seats which contain Black Belt rurals and inner cities.

[Skill and Chance]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

The CJ seat has narrowed from R +4K votes to R+<1K, and there are 10's of thousands of absentees left to count.  Pretty sure that one flips back to the incumbent Dem, but R's are sure to win the other 2 seats now.  5D/2R is the most likely outcome.  The seats up in 2022 are 2D/1R, so it is very possible the court flips in a Biden midterm.

[Sol]

If there's a concern about Butterfield you could also draw something like this, pronging into Raleigh instead of Durham.



In fairness, it's pretty easy to draw logical majority Black districts without splitting Jackson or
It has the advantage of relieving the pressure on ENC, thereby allowing for more logical districts--though obviously it's still not optimal. Eastern Wake County is also getting a good bit Blacker, which might help too if there are concerns about a decline in minority communities in the Northeast.

Well I still believe that a rural coi is key im merely commentating on what could happen

There’s no problem in the rest of the South with creating VRA seats which contain Black Belt rurals and inner cities.

Of course, none of those are optimal wrt: Communities of Interest.

[Gass3268]

Butterfield might need Durham back, in some deal or so considering he is only up by 8 points. I think a 9-5 map is probably what happens. NC D's look likely to take a net of -1 in the state supreme court and possibly -2 to a total of 4-3.

The CJ seat has narrowed from R +4K votes to R+<1K, and there are 10's of thousands of absentees left to count.  Pretty sure that one flips back to the incumbent Dem, but R's are sure to win the other 2 seats now.  5D/2R is the most likely outcome.  The seats up in 2022 are 2D/1R, so it is very possible the court flips in a Biden midterm.

The NC Democratic Party might need to go out and recruit a few more fake Republicans.

[lfromnj]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

[Idaho Conservative]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

are any of the R seats marginal?

[lfromnj]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

are any of the R seats marginal?

The one with Fayetville and Hudson kinda is at Trump +7.

[Idaho Conservative]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

are any of the R seats marginal?

The one with Fayetville and Hudson kinda is at Trump +7.

I think a good compromise would be shoring that up but in exchange the Greensboro seat is safe.

[Sol]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

Beasley actually still has a decent shot; probably the narrow favorite at this point though there will be a recount.

[Sol]

As the court seems its heading towards 4-3 here is a clean map the NC GOP could draw. Guilford can mostly be drowned out by Randolph but it still is Clinton +3 FWIW. I didn't take much of Durham btw, its only like 10k.

Do you have a link?

[Skill and Chance]

CJ Beasley is now likely to lose.  The late absentees and provisionals were surprisingly R, as they have been in other states.  So the court will be 4D/3R when it reviews the maps.  This leaves a couple of different scenarios:

1. Is one of the remaining D's known as a don't-rock-the-boat moderate?  Did any Dems dissent from or more narrowly concur in the decision throwing out the 2010's maps?  It only takes one crossover vote to defer to the legislature now. 

2.  If they are all committed liberals, they could go for broke in trying to set up the most Dem possible maps for 2022 knowing that they will almost surely lose their 1-seat majority in a Biden midterm anyway?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I don't care if its 4 or 5, I want a d leaning map lol
NC dems should appeal the Republicans map no matter what they draw

[lfromnj]

https://davesredistricting.org/join/a802d155-c302-4c53-a994-d876550a22c4

Here's the link.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't care if its 4 or 5, I want a d leaning map lol
NC dems should appeal the Republicans map no matter what they draw

True. Anything less than 6 safe dem districts is completely unacceptable

[Nyvin]

CJ Beasley is now likely to lose.  The late absentees and provisionals were surprisingly R, as they have been in other states.  So the court will be 4D/3R when it reviews the maps.  This leaves a couple of different scenarios:

1. Is one of the remaining D's known as a don't-rock-the-boat moderate?  Did any Dems dissent from or more narrowly concur in the decision throwing out the 2010's maps?  It only takes one crossover vote to defer to the legislature now.  

2.  If they are all committed liberals, they could go for broke in trying to set up the most Dem possible maps for 2022 knowing that they will almost surely lose their 1-seat majority in a Biden midterm anyway?

As of this morning Beasley is still ahead by 35 votes, but Robeson still has some provisionals.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1327628816345411585

[Idaho Conservative]

I don't care if its 4 or 5, I want a d leaning map lol
NC dems should appeal the Republicans map no matter what they draw

True. Anything less than 6 safe dem districts is completely unacceptable

that's not what the court said last time.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

I don't care if its 4 or 5, I want a d leaning map lol
NC dems should appeal the Republicans map no matter what they draw

True. Anything less than 6 safe dem districts is completely unacceptable

that's not what the court said last time.

NC is gaining a 14th seat. It should go to Democrats.

[lfromnj]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

[Storr]

I don't care if its 4 or 5, I want a d leaning map lol
NC dems should appeal the Republicans map no matter what they draw

True. Anything less than 6 safe dem districts is completely unacceptable

that's not what the court said last time.

NC is gaining a 14th seat. It should go to Democrats.

7R-6D-1T would be a fair map for a swing state that is always close nationally and votes in favor of both Democrats and Republicans for statewide offices, but definitely has a slight Republican tilt. Of course, never doubt the NCGOP's willingness to draw up the most horrendous maps possible. A 10R-4D map is relatively easy (the most favorable R leaning seat for Democrats would be likely R in a Biden midterm) if Republicans wanted to go down that path. No doubt it would be challenged in court, but having such a favorable map for a few cycles might be worth it in the NCGOP's estimation. That's basically the strategy they used in 2010 Census redistricting.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

Yeah Harnett, Johnston and southern wake right

[lfromnj]

Technically it should be neither, it would be a swing district but all of us know thats unlikely.

Yeah Harnett, Johnston and southern wake right

Yeah what I did in my moderate GOP map was have eastern Wake taken up by the black seat basically which cancels the need for this new swing seat.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

CJ Beasley is now likely to lose.  The late absentees and provisionals were surprisingly R, as they have been in other states.  So the court will be 4D/3R when it reviews the maps.  This leaves a couple of different scenarios:

1. Is one of the remaining D's known as a don't-rock-the-boat moderate?  Did any Dems dissent from or more narrowly concur in the decision throwing out the 2010's maps?  It only takes one crossover vote to defer to the legislature now. 

2.  If they are all committed liberals, they could go for broke in trying to set up the most Dem possible maps for 2022 knowing that they will almost surely lose their 1-seat majority in a Biden midterm anyway?

As of this morning Beasley is still ahead by 35 votes, but Robeson still has some provisionals.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1327628816345411585

Oh dear god, not Robeson again.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CJ Beasley is now likely to lose.  The late absentees and provisionals were surprisingly R, as they have been in other states.  So the court will be 4D/3R when it reviews the maps.  This leaves a couple of different scenarios:

1. Is one of the remaining D's known as a don't-rock-the-boat moderate?  Did any Dems dissent from or more narrowly concur in the decision throwing out the 2010's maps?  It only takes one crossover vote to defer to the legislature now. 

2.  If they are all committed liberals, they could go for broke in trying to set up the most Dem possible maps for 2022 knowing that they will almost surely lose their 1-seat majority in a Biden midterm anyway?

As of this morning Beasley is still ahead by 35 votes, but Robeson still has some provisionals.

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1327628816345411585

Oh dear god, not Robeson again.

Titanium Tilt R Florida Robeson

[Idaho Conservative]

I don't care if its 4 or 5, I want a d leaning map lol
NC dems should appeal the Republicans map no matter what they draw

True. Anything less than 6 safe dem districts is completely unacceptable

that's not what the court said last time.

NC is gaining a 14th seat. It should go to Democrats.

not really, there is no easy place to draw another safe dem seat.  A swing district in sandhills could be drawn, but a fair district there wouldn't be safe dem.