North Carolina 2020 Redistricting

[GALeftist]

Anyway this map is bad and dumb but it isn't horrible from a partisanship standpoint. NC-14 is distinctly winnable with the right candidate. Could certainly be better though.

[GALeftist]

WHY CANT THESE PEOPLE JUST DRAW NORMAL MAPS

[GALeftist]

For real though what is with the Chapel Hill brainworms? Like what is the point? I just don't get it

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/JoseManrique93/status/1494319545720389633

New map released by the senate

[GALeftist]

Is it really too much to ask for this state to be normal in redistricting?

I'm pretty sure they're trolling at this point. Trends look atrocious for the GOP in 13 and 14 and pretty bad in 6 and even 8, so they wouldn't want this map beyond 2022. Probably just aiming for a court drawn map which they can easily redraw in 2022. I do wonder why they didn't do this for the state legislature; maybe they thought restricting the court legislative maps to 2 years might have been unconstitutional.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/EvanPerc_/status/1494327662046691334

Another map was apparently filed this morning. I quite like this one, actually.

[GALeftist]

Of course, there's some legal question about the NCGA's ability to do mid-decade redistricting, but I assume a Republican court won't agree with this interpetation.

There's an explicit prohibition on mid-decade legislative redistricting, no? So those maps are likely final at least. This is probably why there's such a disparity between the legislative and congressional maps in terms of goofiness.

[GALeftist]

Seems like an OK map. It's a shame it's not long for this world. However I will definitely take the W on the state legislative maps

[GALeftist]

I have to wonder why everybody is so allergic to just making a district that has all of Guilford and as much of Forsyth as possible. That seems like the obvious move COI-wise, and it's what the Court did last time, so why not now?

BTW, 538 seems to be treating the map as final. We'll see if they know something we don't.

I think the main thing is no one has any reason to appeal. This is pretty good for Democrats and Republicans aren't getting anything better out of this court until after the elections.

[GALeftist]

Are there any grounds to strike down the new map for VRA violations? Black voters are cracked basically anywhere they exist. If the NC Dems want a court gerrymander why not get Persily or someone else who's not trash at drawing maps. 7-7 is possible without a hideous map. I was expecting that a court that struck down the original map for being too partisan wouldn't just pick a different terrible map engineered with partisan intent.

Considering that this map actually flagrantly violates Section 2 of the VRA, there are legitimate grounds for it being struck down by higher courts.

WOW, all of a sudden VRA section 2 is very real and good and applies to plurality-as-opposed-to-majority seats!!! I'm sure the conservatives in the federal judiciary agree 👍

[GALeftist]

Their old map was fine but for its attempt to screw Cawthorn which Edwards will probably want them to change. Honestly even as the court drew it NC-01 was likely not long for this world. The Research Triangle really needs two seats for security though.

[GALeftist]

Out of curiosity, I tried what they did last cycle combining Northeastern Black communities with Durham, but at this point Wake County is getting so big and blue that it's honestly not worth it imo. If I were the NCGOP I'd just draw basically what they drew the first time around and wait for NC-01 to fall into their laps down the line.

[GALeftist]

Why would Milligan prevent the GOP from gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence? It is currently drawn basically to maximize Black population, and it's still only 41% Black by VAP. Obviously it is a Black performing district (for now) but still, couldn't North Carolina just say, "well, there is no minority population sizeable and compact enough to be a majority in a compact single member district here, therefore Gingles prong 1 fails and this district is not protected by Section 2"? I think you'd probably have a stronger case arguing that gerrymandering NC-01 out of existence is a racial gerrymander impermissible under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. I think this case would be very strong, but it would be more analogous to the South Carolina redistricting challenge pending before the Supreme Court than to Milligan.

[GALeftist]

Somebody or several bodies needs to be the Allen v. Milligan decision with more care, assuming they have read it at all.

Here is the cleanest map I can draw that I had the skill to draw that turns NC-01 into a Gingles CD. It was tough going.

https://davesredistricting.org/join/fe568442-204c-48a4-be07-54e2969d0fff

Yeah, I am with you on this. NC-01 has been litigated to hell and back, particularly in front of the Supreme Court; they have consistently rejected variations of the district that would be >50% black as not just not required by Section 2 but impermissible racial gerrymanders (and I tend to agree). The NCGOP may very well elect to keep NC-01 around, but if they do, it won't be (directly) because of Milligan. It will be some combination of 1. They don't mind Don Davis and 2. They don't want to roll the dice on a 14th Amendment racial gerrymandering lawsuit (as opposed to a VRA lawsuit).

[GALeftist]

Senate statement says maps next week, votes potentially in in the week following that.

They are moving fast enough that in theory there could be a VRA vote dilution PI appeal claim could be made against the 1st if it is made Whiter - though IMO it's getting Durham back like in 2016 since this is post-Milligan.

You don't think that might be playing with fire, what with the extra district compared to 2016 and with Wake County trends being what they are?

[GALeftist]

Maps dropped.

https://ncleg.gov/Legislation/Bills/FiledByDay/2023/S

Most notably at first glance they put Durham in NC-01.

[GALeftist]

Yeah this is an 11-3 map. Haven't put it all together but the gist of it is that NC-01 takes in Durham and a bunch of Orange along with a bunch of the northeast, NC-02 is most of Wake, and then NC-12 is Mecklenburg obviously.

[GALeftist]

Oops, yeah, two versions. Looks like one double-bunks Foushee and Davis and one does not.

[GALeftist]

These are basically the two scenarios you're looking at. Filled in Scenario 2 a little more because I was curious about potential for failure. Conclusion: 4 and 3 *should* be fine, but 13 is a little iffy: went from about Trump+17 in 2016 to about Trump+12 in 2020.

[GALeftist]

These are basically the two scenarios you're looking at. Filled in Scenario 2 a little more because I was curious about potential for failure. Conclusion: 4 and 3 *should* be fine, but 13 is a little iffy: went from about Trump+17 in 2016 to about Trump+12 in 2020.

So #1 is a 10-3-1 map and #2 a 10-4 map?

Scenario 2 is an 11-3 map. One Democrat in Mecklenburg, one in Wake, and one in the Frankenstein seat that combines current NC-01 and NC-04. Scenario 1 is comparatively boring – Charlotte gets its one Democrat, Research Triangle gets its two, one swing seat in the northeast, and everything else is Safe R.

I personally would expect 10-3-1 – it seems a little safer against both lawsuits and Wake trends, and I would honestly be pretty surprised if Biden won that version of NC-01 in 2024 anyway (it was Budd+6 in 2022). Davis might win once or twice more but after that it's probably gone anyway.

[GALeftist]

People keep saying that NC-01 (and NC-12, but that's less relevant) are VRA protected and tbh I don't think that's right. Cooper v. Harris established that you can't do weird tendril stuff to reach 50% Black CVAP and I don't think you can reach that benchmark in either area without those tendrils, so it seems to me that it fails Gingles. Not 100% sure though.