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  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 95784 times)
Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1350 on: December 09, 2019, 12:52:12 PM »

So this happened today.
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cp
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« Reply #1351 on: December 09, 2019, 12:59:16 PM »


It gets worse (for the Tories). Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, made an unscheduled trip to the hospital. He was heckled as he left, but the BBC falsely reported it (based on 'Tory sources', of course) as a Labour activist punching a Tory aide. Considering this is the event in question, I'd say it's *just possible* that was a misleading source.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1352 on: December 09, 2019, 01:54:55 PM »

Given that the poll suggests a swing of around 6pts and most of the seats in question have 2017 majorities that would fall at pretty much that exact point, I'm not sure how you get to 'this poll suggests no chance at holding any' from that?

Anyway, Welsh polling is historically very volatile - it can sometimes be about right, but it can also be quite badly off and in all potential directions.

Because vote efficiency is a thing. Labour loses votes easier outside of the Valleys these days than inside. Generally, the Valleys are inflexible. So a implied 6% swing is far larger than said 6% in the  north of Wales, and less in the south.

This is the great fallacy of national swing: seats do not swing uniformly unless it becomes a landslide. As well all know, demographics move differently. it's why the MRP is so powerful, and it is why Bassetlaw flips before Canterbury. In 2017, when Labour surged to match May's Conservatives, the picture was very spotty. In 1/3 of seats (non-scot or NI), labour gained more than their national swing; these seats were mostly in London, the surrounding Remain shires, and other urban areas across the country. In about 1/3 of seats, the Tories had a positive swing; mostly in the North/Northeast, East Midlands, and other areas that gave overwhleming Leave majorities. In between these two poles was the other 1/3 of seats that swung to Labour by less then the national swing.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1353 on: December 09, 2019, 02:50:22 PM »



Next poll to release.
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Cassius
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« Reply #1354 on: December 09, 2019, 02:50:44 PM »

If that Welsh poll is on the money I wouldn’t rule out the Tories winning Gower and Bridgend. Bridgend is not part of the Welsh valleys and has had a rather different political trajectory to the valleys seats to the north of it. The Tories have always had a solid base of votes there, even in elections like 1997, and it has been fairly marginal since 2010. Gower is a slightly odd constituency, being one part ex-industrial (and sometimes still partly-industrial, like Clydach) areas in the Swansea valley proper and to the west of it (Pontarddulais), and part rural farming and touristy country (the Gower peninsula). It too is a marginal and the Tories actually won it, very narrowly, in 2015, which was ironic given that it had been represented by a Labour MP for over a century. The margins in the referendum seem to have been very narrow and they are not the kind of places where there will be a large, intensely pro-EU vote to help Labour, although the planned closure of the Ford plant in Bridgend, (which Ford blamed on Brexit), may provoke some kind of anti-Brexit backlash there.

Cardiff North may be less likely to fall, given that it’s much more affluent and given the fact Cardiff voted to Remain by such a large margin in 2016, which could make it a bit stickier for Labour in a two horse race. I wouldn’t be surprised though if the Tories get a lot of close results in Wales but ultimately underperform that poll and make very few (or no) gains on the night.
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1355 on: December 09, 2019, 03:15:43 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2019, 04:28:50 PM by DistingFlyer »

Three-day poll aggregate update (9 Dec):

Cons - 43.4% (-0.1%), 352 MPs (+34)
Lab - 32.9% (-8.2%), 216 MPs (-46)
Lib Dem - 12.4% (+4.9%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 4.2% (+0.6%), 46 MPs (+7)
GP - 2.2% (+0.6%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 54
Overall swing: 4.0% to Cons

The polls indicating 6% and 14-15% leads to have come out in the last day or so appear to have created a net change of almost nil; the three-day averages have remained almost identical for the last week. Sometimes such steadiness is a precursor to a surprise last-minute swing, but just as often it's not.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1356 on: December 09, 2019, 03:22:25 PM »

Only Boris Johnson can save us from the anti-Semitic Corbynites:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/boris-johnson-book-jews-control-media-general-election-a9239346.html
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Cassius
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« Reply #1357 on: December 09, 2019, 03:33:38 PM »

Really desperate stuff.

The most tragic thing is that someone, somewhere, has actually chosen to wade through that turgid novel and given it a close reading in the hopes of gleaning something controversial for publication in that comic.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #1358 on: December 09, 2019, 03:34:07 PM »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.
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Quislings Anonymous
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« Reply #1359 on: December 09, 2019, 04:06:54 PM »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.

I wish that British polls had undecided numbers.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1360 on: December 09, 2019, 04:53:59 PM »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.

Remember that postal votes are being sent in at the moment. Also, any major change might not be picked up in time; some people will decide in the booth.

As for me, I'm in a safe Conservative seat and since I find a lot of stuff about Labour objectionable at present, I intend to vote Lib Dem to bolster their national numbers.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1361 on: December 09, 2019, 05:01:20 PM »
« Edited: December 09, 2019, 05:04:28 PM by Oryxslayer »







(Last?) Three Deltapoll constituency polls are re-polls of the West London seats. On their first pass, it appeared closer to the higher end up London expectations. This time, we have entered the more average projection. Now, the overwhelming amount of voters here are still open to tactical voting and would still comfortably elect Lib-Dems if it was only a Lib-Dem and a Tory with a realistic shot at winning. However, it no longer is. Throwing Putney and Wimbledon onto the pile for good measure we get a collection of seats now where a majority of voters will likely not want Conservatives, but the two groups who are willing to kick out the conservatives have different goals. Now, this is one of the best regions demographically for tactical voting to occur, so perhaps these  polls will actually influence the final outcome. The picture  however now is far more murky than how it appeared six weeks ago.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1362 on: December 09, 2019, 05:14:57 PM »

Finchley & Golders Green isn't West London, it's North. It's noteworthy as it's a Tory marginal that was Labour from 1997 until 2010. Secondly, the previous seat used to have Margaret Thatcher sit for it.

Thirdly and most importantly here, that general area has the highest Jewish population in the UK; on the times I've been through the south of it on London Overground, there's been at least one Haredi Jew on the train.
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DL
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« Reply #1363 on: December 09, 2019, 05:17:12 PM »

How do they do constituency polls in the UK? In Canada they have become almost impossible to conduct because only listed landline numbers can be linked to a geographic area so if you do a riding poll you are really just polling people over 40 who have not moved in the last 20 years - anyone who only has a cell phone (in other words almost anyone under 40) cannot be polled at the constituency level.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1364 on: December 09, 2019, 05:24:26 PM »

YouGov asks for your postcode when you register for their online panel. They need it for the cheques for one thing.
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #1365 on: December 09, 2019, 06:25:33 PM »

More constituency polls, I see. I wouldn't trust those.
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rc18
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« Reply #1366 on: December 09, 2019, 06:28:01 PM »

How do they do constituency polls in the UK? In Canada they have become almost impossible to conduct because only listed landline numbers can be linked to a geographic area so if you do a riding poll you are really just polling people over 40 who have not moved in the last 20 years - anyone who only has a cell phone (in other words almost anyone under 40) cannot be polled at the constituency level.

Both Survation and Deltapoll have done random digit dialling of both landline and mobile/cell phone. Probably paid some data company for a localised list of mobile numbers.
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LabourJersey
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« Reply #1367 on: December 09, 2019, 08:45:23 PM »

So now that Boris had ignored the terrible treatment of a sick children, he's trying his best to change the subject in possibly the most cringeworthy way imaginable:



The amount of Tory Sh**posting this election cycle is truly absurd.
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Helsinkian
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« Reply #1368 on: December 09, 2019, 09:11:29 PM »

And for some reason the last 30 seconds are just silence.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1369 on: December 09, 2019, 09:19:50 PM »

Boris Johnson's ghoulish reaction to the image of the boy in the hospital is about the worst possible story for the Tories in the most critical period of the campaign because it puts the spotlight on the NHS' problems while suggesting that Boris Johnson will do nothing to solve them. Considering that 8-12% of voters remain Undecided and that the Tory lead is ~8 points when Undecideds are taken into account, this could be devastating for the Tories...

Seems like the sort of story that cuts through for a week tbh. I expect the Tories to try to slam a bunch of rats on the table to change the topic. The extent to which they do this will reveal how damaging the story is.

They already tried one - inventing an "assault" on one of Matt Hancock's SPADs by a "Labour activist" for which they were supposedly arrested. Only problem - it was false from start to finish and *proved* to be so by video coverage - but not before Laura K and Bobby P (inter alia) had been suckered by it.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #1370 on: December 09, 2019, 10:32:11 PM »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.

How are constituency polls conducted in Britain?

In 2018, I was polled by phone. Since it was a human pollster, I participated. Then she asked about who I was going to vote for in a nearby congressional district (and one in which I had lived - the district moved, not me). I explained I wasn't going to vote for any of the candidates since I couldn't. After a bit of discussion, it was agreed that I would be recorded as "refused to state", which sometimes gets lumped with dunno, not sure, and no opinion.

Or are their voter lists complete with phone numbers? And if phone, how do you get people to respond. My understanding that in the US, response rates are around 10% (lower if mobile phone). With that kind of response, you are going to be having extreme self-selection biases. If 12% of Tory voters respond, and 8% of Labour, you've got a useless poll.

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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1371 on: December 09, 2019, 10:37:57 PM »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.

How are constituency polls conducted in Britain?

In 2018, I was polled by phone. Since it was a human pollster, I participated. Then she asked about who I was going to vote for in a nearby congressional district (and one in which I had lived - the district moved, not me). I explained I wasn't going to vote for any of the candidates since I couldn't. After a bit of discussion, it was agreed that I would be recorded as "refused to state", which sometimes gets lumped with dunno, not sure, and no opinion.

Or are their voter lists complete with phone numbers? And if phone, how do you get people to respond. My understanding that in the US, response rates are around 10% (lower if mobile phone). With that kind of response, you are going to be having extreme self-selection biases. If 12% of Tory voters respond, and 8% of Labour, you've got a useless poll.



The first part was answered here:

How do they do constituency polls in the UK? In Canada they have become almost impossible to conduct because only listed landline numbers can be linked to a geographic area so if you do a riding poll you are really just polling people over 40 who have not moved in the last 20 years - anyone who only has a cell phone (in other words almost anyone under 40) cannot be polled at the constituency level.

Both Survation and Deltapoll have done random digit dialling of both landline and mobile/cell phone. Probably paid some data company for a localised list of mobile numbers.

And the second part is hopefully solved by weighting, though not for party ID. For example, If you get poor response rates from African Americans in your US poll, those AA's get weighted heavier in regards to the rest of the sample so that your poll reflects the electorate.
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cp
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« Reply #1372 on: December 10, 2019, 03:58:07 AM »



Unclear which ComRes method is being used here, i.e. whether it's the same they used for Gina Miller's poll last week or their regular methodology. Either way, 7 point gap pulls the overall averages of the race closer to a draw.
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Skye
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« Reply #1373 on: December 10, 2019, 04:28:24 AM »




(Last?) Three Deltapoll constituency polls are re-polls of the West London seats. On their first pass, it appeared closer to the higher end up London expectations. This time, we have entered the more average projection. Now, the overwhelming amount of voters here are still open to tactical voting and would still comfortably elect Lib-Dems if it was only a Lib-Dem and a Tory with a realistic shot at winning. However, it no longer is. Throwing Putney and Wimbledon onto the pile for good measure we get a collection of seats now where a majority of voters will likely not want Conservatives, but the two groups who are willing to kick out the conservatives have different goals. Now, this is one of the best regions demographically for tactical voting to occur, so perhaps these  polls will actually influence the final outcome. The picture  however now is far more murky than how it appeared six weeks ago.

I see people on Twitter are a bit mad about the City of London poll. I saw the YouGov MRP rated it as 'Likely Conservative' so I don't know what the fuss is all about.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1374 on: December 10, 2019, 05:45:48 AM »

It would likely be closer without a certain person's vanity candidacy?
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