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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  International Elections (Moderators: Gustaf, Hash, Babette d'Interlaken)
  United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019
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Author Topic: United Kingdom General Elections: December 12th, 2019  (Read 85970 times)
urutzizu
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« Reply #1275 on: December 07, 2019, 01:12:35 pm »

Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

Quote
British Prime Minister Boris Johnsonís Conservative Partyís lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0
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rc18
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« Reply #1276 on: December 07, 2019, 01:25:17 pm »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 01:42:27 pm by rc18 »

Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

Quote
British Prime Minister Boris Johnsonís Conservative Partyís lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0

The Remain United poll did not prompt for candidates standing in the respondent's constituency unlike most polls are now doing.
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cp
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« Reply #1277 on: December 07, 2019, 01:26:51 pm »

Apparently two comRes polls were conducted, the one shown above, was commissioned Remain United. The Other, for the Telegraph, shows an 8 point Tory lead.

Quote
British Prime Minister Boris Johnsonís Conservative Partyís lead over the opposition Labour Party has narrowed to eight points from 10 with days to go before Britons vote in a Dec. 12 election, according to a Savanta ComRes poll for the Sunday Telegraph.

The Conservatives were on 41%, down one point from a survey published on Wednesday, while Labour were up one point to 33%. Savanta ComRes surveyed 2,034 British people between Dec. 4 and Dec. 5.

A separate Savanta ComRes poll for Remain United, an anti-Brexit group, released earlier on Saturday showed a six-point gap, with the Conservatives on 42% and Labour on 36%.

https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-election-telegraph/johnsons-lead-over-labour-narrows-savanta-comres-poll-idUKKBN1YB0IH?il=0

Picking up on Oryx's point, that would seem to align with the idea of the Tories being 7ish points ahead and falling. For comparison's sake, at this point in the 2017 election polls showed a Tory lead between 1 and 12 points, and polls over the following week showed a similar distribution. This was also the point in 2017 when the second terrorist attack of the campaign (the one in London) happened, which I will point to as proof that there very much is still time for changes to happen one way or another.

With that said, I think we're close enough to the close of the campaign to be confident about one observation: this election isn't *precisely* like 2017, but it's unfolded more like 2017 than any other recent election.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1278 on: December 07, 2019, 01:38:38 pm »

Basically two polls with different methodologies by the same polling firm, in part (though not totally) conducted over the same period of time. A bit weird, but I suppose not unuseful.
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afleitch
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« Reply #1279 on: December 07, 2019, 02:00:31 pm »

Tory 15pt lead with Opinium.
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marty
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« Reply #1280 on: December 07, 2019, 02:15:04 pm »


Absolute junk
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1281 on: December 07, 2019, 02:16:36 pm »


And just like that we get the outlier at the other end of the spectrum. Tongue

Seems clear were getting a good spread. At the minimum this means polls have to be systematically off in their methods for shock errors, rather than them getting good results and throwing them out to conform with the herd.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1282 on: December 07, 2019, 03:34:27 pm »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 03:56:47 pm by Oryxslayer »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.



I currently consider this a three-way tossup, and similarly does YouGov. When presented with two way battles between Lib-Dems and Labour, the race remains marginal. Essentially, it's an unknown if non-Tory votes can or even want to consolidate here.



This once was a three way marginal, but it has slid off the triple  battlefield, prompting the question of where the Lib-Dem base would go. Turns out that answer was nowhere. Conservatives win in both a Blue-Red and a Blue-Orange hypothetical if only one had a realistic opportunity here. Numbers align with YouGov's projection.



I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Between this and Raab's seat the Lib-Dems look to be having goo night in in this Remain area. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat theoretically since Milton has been forced to stand as an indie. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.
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Babette d'Interlaken
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« Reply #1283 on: December 07, 2019, 03:35:21 pm »

OK, let's not derail the election thread with OSR giving his usual hottake and then being explained what communism actually is.
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cp
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« Reply #1284 on: December 07, 2019, 03:46:20 pm »

Three more constituency polls, from three varying seats.



I currently consider this a three-way tossup, and similarly does YouGov. When presented with two way battles between Lib-Dems and Labour, the race remains marginal. Essentially, it's an unknown if non-Tory votes can or even want to consolidate here.



This once was a three way marginal, but it has slid off the triple  battlefield, prompting the question of where the Lib-Dem base would go. Turns out that answer was nowhere. Conservatives with in both a Blue-Red and a Blue-Orange hypothetical if only one had a realistic opportunity here. Numbers align with YouGov's projection.



I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.

Worth noting these are all nearly a week old and date from when Labour was closer to 10 points down on average compared with 6-7 now. Putney could be a Labour lead now and Southport a tie.

Completely agree with you about Guildford and the Lib Dems, though. The rumours on the ground there are, if anything, even more encouraging than they've been in Esher & Walton.

On that subject, the Tories seem to have actually shown up to campaign for the first time in weeks. I spotted two or three new Tory lawn signs this evening, still outnumbered by Lib Dems, though - and this is in the *suuuuper* Tory part of the ward (Cobham). My partner went to an even in Walton today with Gina Miller and the actor Hugh Grant. Said there was great turnout.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1285 on: December 07, 2019, 04:03:30 pm »

snip

I knew I was right to give this Surrey Lib-Dem target to them in my model. Conservatives lose in every prompted realistic 2-way matchup. This seat voted fairly hard for remain, and had a Lib-dem base in 2017. It's also an open seat. YouGov has the seat as lean Conservative, but there is a lot of Lib-Dem and Tory crossover, and I don't need to repeat myself on how every swing model, even YouGov's, unshoots the parties that focus on specific targets rather than the entire board.

Worth noting these are all nearly a week old and date from when Labour was closer to 10 points down on average compared with 6-7 now. Putney could be a Labour lead now and Southport a tie.

Completely agree with you about Guildford and the Lib Dems, though. The rumours on the ground there are, if anything, even more encouraging than they've been in Esher & Walton.

On that subject, the Tories seem to have actually shown up to campaign for the first time in weeks. I spotted two or three new Tory lawn signs this evening, still outnumbered by Lib Dems, though - and this is in the *suuuuper* Tory part of the ward (Cobham). My partner went to an even in Walton today with Gina Miller and the actor Hugh Grant. Said there was great turnout.

It's reached the  point where I would be surprised if Esher & Walton doesn't come in as marginal Raab hold or better for the Lib-Dems next week. Raab has screwed up badly and he's in the part of the country where BoJo's 'Get Brexit Done' can't pull many favors.
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Serenity Now
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« Reply #1286 on: December 07, 2019, 04:14:01 pm »


Crikey, I thought that was your parody interpretation of the article rather than the actual headline. Wink
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parochial boy
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« Reply #1287 on: December 07, 2019, 04:17:50 pm »

Ooh, Putney is the constituency I lived in, a perfectly generic cross-section of what Rich-West-London is like.

Aside from the yummy mummy brigade, I always used to figure that being just over the river from Fulham helped bring in a rather different "young graduate" crowd from what you get in East London; it's also ram full of South Africans, who I imagine are among the more conservative of immigrant groups. The only reason Labour are competitive, Brexit or not, is the massive council estate in Roehampton - plus all the purpose built and ex-council flats near the Common.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1288 on: December 07, 2019, 04:24:18 pm »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 04:39:16 pm by Oryxslayer »



Deltapoll's national weekend numbers.



YouGov's weekend poll.
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Silent Hunter
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« Reply #1289 on: December 07, 2019, 05:18:30 pm »

Labour's best hope, unless something massively changes, is a large polling error in their favour.
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Justice Blair
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« Reply #1290 on: December 07, 2019, 06:00:23 pm »

Did I miss the beef?
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President Pericles
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« Reply #1291 on: December 07, 2019, 06:21:35 pm »

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?
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DistingFlyer
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« Reply #1292 on: December 07, 2019, 06:42:52 pm »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 07:01:02 pm by DistingFlyer »

Three-day poll aggregate update (7 Dec):

Cons - 43.4% (-0.1%), 348 MPs (+30)
Lab - 32.8% (-8.3%), 215 MPs (-47)
Lib Dem - 12.4% (+4.8%), 17 MPs (+5)
Nat - 5.3% (+1.7%), 51 MPs (+12)
GP - 2.3% (+0.6%), 1 MP

Overall majority: 46
Overall swing: 4.0% to Cons
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Cassius
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« Reply #1293 on: December 07, 2019, 07:10:19 pm »

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?

Miltonís not particularly well known, unlike Grieve who has been a prominent anti-Johnson and anti-Brexit Tory since way back when. The Liberal Democrats have also declined to stand aside for her (unlike for Grieve) and this constituency has historically been fairly strong territory for them - Milton actually took it off them in 2005 and theyíve been consistently in the top two in the seat since the days of the Alliance.

I donít actually believe the Liberal Democrats will win it (nor Esher & Walton); they were thirty points behind here in 2017 and, regardless of how good their ground game is, I donít see them overcoming that in an election where they end up on 11-12% nationally and the Tories are at around 42%.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1294 on: December 07, 2019, 07:27:34 pm »

FWIW those constituency polls don't exactly suggest the Tories are running away with it as certain national surveys indicate. And btw to one poster above, 38-35-24 isn't *really* a "three way tossup" Smiley
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #1295 on: December 07, 2019, 07:30:13 pm »
« Edited: December 07, 2019, 07:34:34 pm by Oryxslayer »

I'm surprised Anne Milton is doing so badly, I'd have thought a sitting MP would be more competitive. She supports a second referendum I think too. Was she a bad MP?

Miltonís not particularly well known, unlike Grieve who has been a prominent anti-Johnson and anti-Brexit Tory since way back when. The Liberal Democrats have also declined to stand aside for her (unlike for Grieve) and this constituency has historically been fairly strong territory for them - Milton actually took it off them in 2005 and theyíve been consistently in the top two in the seat since the days of the Alliance.

I donít actually believe the Liberal Democrats will win it (nor Esher & Walton); they were thirty points behind here in 2017 and, regardless of how good their ground game is, I donít see them overcoming that in an election where they end up on 11-12% nationally and the Tories are at around 42%.

I hope I don't need to give the writeup again on how the Lib-Dem strategy of: target a handful intensively rather than play for 632, a brand of "not Con" or "not Lab," and voter activation leads towards these large swings and them always underperforming their polled percentage but overperforming their polled seats. The potential Lib-Dem voter is more educated, more fiscally stable, and in tune with the political winds, so they are more likely to vote tactically for Blue/Red and hide the true Lib-Dem availability of the voters. They may not take the seats, but the Lib-Dems have overtaken huge majorities before and will again.
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1296 on: December 07, 2019, 07:44:21 pm »

NRS social grade vs. social class identity

ABC1 

Conservative  41%
Labour  28%
Lib Dem  17%

C2DE

Conservative  44%
Labour  30%
Lib Dem  10%

Middle class ID

Conservative  42%
Labour  24%
Lib Dem  23%

Working class ID

Conservative  44%
Labour  32%
Lib Dem  8%

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/25/how-well-do-abc1-and-c2de-correspond-our-own-class
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King of Kensington
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« Reply #1297 on: December 07, 2019, 07:52:28 pm »

More recent NRS grade:

ABC1:
Conservative 40%
Labour 33%
Lib Dem 15%
SNP 5%
Green 4%
Brexit Party 3%

C2DE:
Conservative 44%
Labour 34%
Lib Dem 8%
Brexit Party 4%
Green 4%
SNP 4%

YouGov 2-3 Dec

https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/1203316984164835328
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vileplume
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« Reply #1298 on: December 07, 2019, 08:19:58 pm »

FWIW those constituency polls don't exactly suggest the Tories are running away with it as certain national surveys indicate. And btw to one poster above, 38-35-24 isn't *really* a "three way tossup" Smiley

To be fair the vast majority of these DeltaPolls are in strongly Remain areas where you'd expect them to do significantly worse than average. The only one they've conducted in a strong Leave area (Berwick) had them doing very well.
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CumbrianLeftie
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« Reply #1299 on: December 07, 2019, 08:22:06 pm »

True enough, but Southport (which voted narrowly leave) only has a 1% Lab to Tory swing.
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