Which house do the Democrats have a better shot at taking over?

[A18]

Discuss.

[Adlai Stevenson]

I'm unsure. I guess in the Senate to take control we need to gain 6 seats; i.e. Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Montana, Missouri, Ohio and Tennessee. I have to say that I believe it is unlikely that we will these for any number of reasons. I feel that if we pick up anything at the end of this year we will be lucky. But overall, we can't imagine how November 2006 will be now.

In the House, it seems we will definitely pick up some seats and we have a few targets: Sodrel in Indiana, DeLay in Texas, Hyde's open in Illinois, Musgrave in Colorado, etc. But I don't think all the marginals will align towards us; I wouldn't rule out some losses of our own and I don't think we have enough to overtake the GOP majority.

I am still undecided as to how to vote in this poll.

[Moooooo]

Probably the House, and that just goes to show how unrealistic our chances are.

The numbers really do not add up in the senate.  We would need to hold all of our current seats plus pickup...  PA, OH, MO, MT, RI, AZ, TN

And of those we only have realistic shots at PA, OH, MO and RI.  MT may come closer as Abramoff talks.  AZ and TN are wishful thinking.

[Ben.]

Probably the House, and that just goes to show how unrealistic our chances are.

I’d agree the numbers just don’t add up to mean the Democrats have any realistic chance at winning either the House or the Senate. I think modest gains in both are most likely… but nothing near what’s needed to wrest control of either.     

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Don’t forget Mississippi, the more its talked about the more local commentators seems to be seeing Moore as a likely winner should Lott step down and he run… I’m inclined to agree that he has at worst an evens chance of picking the seat up for the Dems in an open race (better than our chances in any of other race bar PA IMHO)… should there even be such a race.   


On Montana I agree that Abramoff could have a big impact, I think of all the races after PA (possibly Mississippi if Lott doesn’t run) its our best shot and perhaps the best location for an upset by an energised state party over an tired and increasingly discredited incumbent.   

[Sam Spade]

The House - about 20%-25% at present.

The Senate - about 3%-5% at present and that's optimistic.

[TheresNoMoney]

And of those we only have realistic shots at PA, OH, MO and RI.  MT may come closer as Abramoff talks.  AZ and TN are wishful thinking.

MT is definitely winnable with a strong campaign. Ford, Jr. has an outside shot.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The House - about 20%-25% at present.

The Senate - about 3%-5% at present and that's optimistic.

Seems about right; though I'd be inclined to go with the 25% House figure and go even lower for the Senate; about 2%.

[Jake]

Neither really, but they have a bit better chance of taking back the House, if only because they need a lower percentage of seats to do it.

[nini2287]

Neither really, but they have a bit better chance of taking back the House, if only because they need a lower percentage of seats to do it.

That's what I was thinking.  We have very good shots at least 10-15 seats, wihle the number of highly competitive Democratic seats is much lower.

[Alcon]

The thing about the Senate is that the national luck to get all of those seats would mean the Dems probably take the House anyway.

House, definitely.  I'd say about a 20% chance.  The Senate?  Too negligible to bother.

[Gustaf]

House obviously. Especially in the longer run. Winning the senate looks kind o impossible right now. What are the competitive House seats?

[Alcon]

House obviously. Especially in the longer run. Winning the senate looks kind o impossible right now. What are the competitive House seats?

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/2006/house/

[Virginian87]

And of those we only have realistic shots at PA, OH, MO and RI.  MT may come closer as Abramoff talks.  AZ and TN are wishful thinking.

MT is definitely winnable with a strong campaign. Ford, Jr. has an outside shot.

No way for Ford.  He'll be able to grab the inner city vote, but what about the suburbs and traditionally more conservative Eastern Tennessee?

However, I do believe Jon Tester has a better than average chance to defeat Conrad Burns.

[True Democrat]

The House, it almost impossible to win the Senate back, though the House won't be much easier.  So basically, we won't win either House back.

[Virginian87]

The House, it almost impossible to win the Senate back, though the House won't be much easier.  So basically, we won't win either House back.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

[GOP = Terrorists]

We will take the House.
Just under even to take the Senate but it won't matter because so many Republicans will be running for their electoral lives in '08 and won't be able to muster anything partyline.

I expect this to be obvious come summer.

[memphis]

Like everybody says, the House is more likely because only 1/3 of senators are up for re-election. I expect the Dems to gain several House seats in November, hopefully enough to take back control. I'm pretty pessimistic on the Senate side, although I think we'll probably net a couple of seats. Watching Pennsylvania fire Santorum's holier-than-thou ass will be very gratifying.

[The Man From G.O.P.]

We will take the House.
Just under even to take the Senate but it won't matter because so many Republicans will be running for their electoral lives in '08 and won't be able to muster anything partyline.

I expect this to be obvious come summer.

you=out of touch with reality

I think the best house the democrats have a shot at is the... house of cards

[The Duke]

The House, and there shouldn't be much doubt.  To pick up six seats when only 33 or 34 are up each time is a tall order.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

House, although the odds of taking the Senate within the next 3 cycles are much higher. Actually we have a good shot at the Senate in 2008.

[Defarge]

The House, but both are pretty unlikely.

[GOP = Terrorists]

you=out of touch with reality

If you say so.  Bookmark this post and call me on it if I'm wrong. =)

[© tweed]

TradeSports says the House.  They give the GOP a 75% chance of keeping the house and about an 80% chance of keeping the senate.

[Alcon]

TradeSports says the House.  They give the GOP a 75% chance of keeping the house and about an 80% chance of keeping the senate.

And I give TradeSports an 100% chance of being a crappy predictor for anything.

[Gustaf]

TradeSports says the House.  They give the GOP a 75% chance of keeping the house and about an 80% chance of keeping the senate.

Lol, the difference is obviously much bigger than that.