When will the UK leave the EU?

[Middle-aged Europe]

I voted for Option 4 (Sometime in 2020, but after January 31).

This is based on the assumption that the UK will never leave without a deal, and that Parliament will never approve of a deal, leaving a second referendum as the only viable option to actually pass a deal in practice. However, it may still take a while for Parliament to accept that.

[brucejoel99]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wish Boris became PM after Brexit instead of May

[urutzizu]

Imminently. Either the Brexit deal is ratified this week, which i think is the more likely outcome, or extension, snap election, BoJo destroys infighting opposition just because so many people in UK want the entire farce over with and think that he, for all his faults, will do that, and then Parliament ratifies deal.  

Anyway we will see very soon.

[CumbrianLefty]

Imminently. Either the Brexit deal is ratified this week, which i think is the more likely outcome, or extension, snap election, BoJo destroys infighting opposition just because so many people in UK want the entire farce over with and think that he, for all his faults, will do that, and then Parliament ratifies deal.  

Anyway we will see very soon.

Its EXTREMELY unlikely to be rushed through in just a week - the government doesn't actually have a majority to do what it likes, remember? Your "analysis" of any possible election is equally ill-informed and simplistic.

Sorry, but must do better

[brucejoel99]

Imminently. Either the Brexit deal is ratified this week, which i think is the more likely outcome, or extension, snap election, BoJo destroys infighting opposition just because so many people in UK want the entire farce over with and think that he, for all his faults, will do that, and then Parliament ratifies deal.  

Anyway we will see very soon.

Its EXTREMELY unlikely to be rushed through in just a week - the government doesn't actually have a majority to do what it likes, remember? Your "analysis" of any possible election is equally ill-informed and simplistic.

Sorry, but must do better

Not to mention, the tide now appears to be (slowly but surely) shifting in the direction of a second referendum rather than an imminent election anyway.

[urutzizu]

Imminently. Either the Brexit deal is ratified this week, which i think is the more likely outcome, or extension, snap election, BoJo destroys infighting opposition just because so many people in UK want the entire farce over with and think that he, for all his faults, will do that, and then Parliament ratifies deal.  

Anyway we will see very soon.

Its EXTREMELY unlikely to be rushed through in just a week - the government doesn't actually have a majority to do what it likes, remember? Your "analysis" of any possible election is equally ill-informed and simplistic.

Sorry, but must do better

I accept that. I think the meaningful vote will be passed this week, the Implementing legislation will take some time, which will necessitate a short extension. But I do still think he does have the numbers - as close as it may be - to take it though - with some comparatively minor amendments, but without wrecking ones.  

As for the election, I just dont buy the narrative that it will be a repeat of 2017. The Labour Brexit strategy is not really very err... and the Toxicity around Corbyn due to the antisemitism thing and just generally the whole polarisation, both between leave and remain and between the various opposition supporters will make a Labour recovery during the campaign very difficult. Its not like I am happy about this fact, but that is just simply the conclusion from my point of view.
I would be interested if you would like to enlighten me from your uniquely British Labour perspective.

[CumbrianLefty]

No election is ever a simple repeat of the previous one (and people in Labour *are* actually well aware of this) but the idea that the Tories hold all the cards is pretty misguided this time round as well. Polls are simply not reliable, and differ on the extent of the Tory lead much more than they did in spring 2017.

Another thing - the EU say they aren't going to complete ratifying the deal until November at the earliest, and until they agree nothing is agreed. Despite the bluster of Gove today, leaving on Oct 31 is now highly unlikely.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Option 2 seems like the likeliest at this point, but anything could still happen (including the last one).

[Green Line]

We're leaving next week.  This has to end soon, one way or another.  Boris will take the country out and go to jail himself if need be.  Brexit is bigger than Boris.

[brucejoel99]

We're leaving next week.  This has to end soon, one way or another.  Boris will take the country out and go to jail himself if need be.  Brexit is bigger than Boris.

Why, though? The most beneficial result for both parties is that the UK remains, while a no-deal would be bad for both the UK & the EU (though especially much moreso for the UK, of course).

An extension increases the odds of the UK remaining, or, at the very least, allows both parties to prepare & minimize any damage that will occur as a result of the UK (eventually) leaving.

Being tired of something doesn't justify doing something else that both the UK & the EU would suffer from by doing.

[Tender Branson]

Hopefully soon. This is getting annoying.

Not that I want them to leave, but this is better than watching this trainwreck in motion.

[Green Line]

We're leaving next week.  This has to end soon, one way or another.  Boris will take the country out and go to jail himself if need be.  Brexit is bigger than Boris.

Why, though? The most beneficial result for both parties is that the UK remains, while a no-deal would be bad for both the UK & the EU (though especially much moreso for the UK, of course).

An extension increases the odds of the UK remaining, or, at the very least, allows both parties to prepare & minimize any damage that will occur as a result of the UK (eventually) leaving.

Being tired of something doesn't justify doing something else that both the UK & the EU would suffer from by doing.

No.  Any extension, and especially revocation will destroy all legitimacy of the UK political system.  I want the UK to continue being a democracy for a while still..

[brucejoel99]

We're leaving next week.  This has to end soon, one way or another.  Boris will take the country out and go to jail himself if need be.  Brexit is bigger than Boris.

Why, though? The most beneficial result for both parties is that the UK remains, while a no-deal would be bad for both the UK & the EU (though especially much moreso for the UK, of course).

An extension increases the odds of the UK remaining, or, at the very least, allows both parties to prepare & minimize any damage that will occur as a result of the UK (eventually) leaving.

Being tired of something doesn't justify doing something else that both the UK & the EU would suffer from by doing.

No.  Any extension, and especially revocation will destroy all legitimacy of the UK political system.  I want the UK to continue being a democracy for a while still..

Pfft, quit your hyperbole. The extension currently being requested is still the end result of the democratic mandate that was granted to Parliament on June 8, 2017. Moreover, any revocation would be the result of a democratic mandate as well (be it via a referendum or another general election).

Not to mention, you can't just ignore the plight of the people that would occur as a result of a no-deal Brexit. Democracy isn't dead because your black & white idea doesn't exist; if anything, what would result in the proverbial death of the UK's democracy are cowards & inward-looking imbeciles who are scared of serving the people well (which is what preventing no-deal does: serve the people well).

[CumbrianLefty]

We're leaving next week.  This has to end soon, one way or another.  Boris will take the country out and go to jail himself if need be.  Brexit is bigger than Boris.

Why, though? The most beneficial result for both parties is that the UK remains, while a no-deal would be bad for both the UK & the EU (though especially much moreso for the UK, of course).

An extension increases the odds of the UK remaining, or, at the very least, allows both parties to prepare & minimize any damage that will occur as a result of the UK (eventually) leaving.

Being tired of something doesn't justify doing something else that both the UK & the EU would suffer from by doing.

No.  Any extension, and especially revocation will destroy all legitimacy of the UK political system.  I want the UK to continue being a democracy for a while still..

And I thought some of the earlier comments in this thread were simplistic and ill informed

[Blue3]

They keep delaying and delaying and delaying.

Maybe it's something they'll delay each year for the next hundred years.



I think it's best that they hold a new referendum.

If not, just do it, get it over with, then come back to the EU after seeing how much it hurts.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hundreds of years from now in Brussels

UK PM: "We need another extension."
EU President: "No can do"
UK PM: "Why not?"
EU President: "We voted to dissolve ourselves last week."
UK PM: "NOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!"

[Lechasseur]

Yeah I think at this point a second referendum will be necessary.

I doubt the chances of it happening are very high, but it looks more likely than previously.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

The Year 3599 (or 872 AB [After Blast]). The British Prime Minister is about to depart Roachshire [formerly London] for Brussels to ask for a customary annual extension.

[Flyersfan232]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

[CumbrianLefty]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

[Omega21]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

[Middle-aged Europe]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

Given that this particular issue splits the UK's electorate down the middle and democracies usually hold elections in regular intervals it actually wouldn't be entirely unjustified to conduct a Brexit referendum every five years. The problem is that the European Union would most certainly like to see a long-term commitment here instead of having to constantly operate on the assumption that the UK could drop out any other decade, making the idea of a Brexit referendum every five years unfeasible in practice. The alternative solution is of course the break-up of the United Kingdom with Northern Ireland reunited with Ireland, an independent Scotland within the EU, and a England/Wales rump state which exists separate from the EU. As we all know, the latter scenario may in fact come to pass one day.

[Omega21]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

Given that this particular issue splits the UK's electorate down the middle and democracies usually hold elections in regular intervals it actually wouldn't be entirely unjustified to conduct a Brexit referendum every five years. The problem is that the European Union would most certainly like to see a long-term commitment here instead of having to constantly operate on the assumption that the UK could drop out any other decade, making the idea of a Brexit referendum every five years unfeasible in practice. The alternative solution is of course the break-up of the United Kingdom with Northern Ireland reunited with Ireland, an independent Scotland within the EU, and a England/Wales rump state which exists separate from the EU. As we all know, the latter scenario may in fact come to pass one day.

I just want this whole leaving thing to end, and if they in a generation or two show willingness to return with fewer opt-outs than the 1st time, that can always be discussed.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Voted Option 7. Mark my words, the UK will never leave the EU. In the end, Brexit will be canceled completely.

civil war if that happens.

Not if it happens via another referendum.

But then a new People's vote on the People's vote will be called

Given that this particular issue splits the UK's electorate down the middle and democracies usually hold elections in regular intervals it actually wouldn't be entirely unjustified to conduct a Brexit referendum every five years. The problem is that the European Union would most certainly like to see a long-term commitment here instead of having to constantly operate on the assumption that the UK could drop out any other decade, making the idea of a Brexit referendum every five years unfeasible in practice. The alternative solution is of course the break-up of the United Kingdom with Northern Ireland reunited with Ireland, an independent Scotland within the EU, and a England/Wales rump state which exists separate from the EU. As we all know, the latter scenario may in fact come to pass one day.

I just want this whole leaving thing to end, and if they in a generation or two show willingness to return with fewer opt-outs than the 1st time, that can always be discussed.

I'm personally in no rush to see it end, to be honest. The issue doesn't really affect me in my personal life or at least far less than a no-deal Brexit potentially would. Besides, I'm interested in observing political processes and even if I were tired of it I just could stop reading the news articles about it.