MD-Sen 2022/WaPo: Hogan +8 over Van Hollen

[MT Treasurer]

Senators Weld, Lingle, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him to the chamber!

Likely D

What's truly ridiculous is that Cook Political had Hawaii as "Lean D" on 11/1/2012. 

Actually I’m surprised by this too but only because I would have expected him to rate it a Tossup.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Van Holland would beat Hogan. Michael Steele came close to beating Cardin, due to the divisive primary that Cardin and Mfume had. Van Hollen has much more support within AA community than Cardin. Cardin, has been a disappointment and a Markey clone; as a result, I didnt endorse hin in 2018 and never will, just like Markey

[OSR stands with Israel]

This race may be the Boxer vs Carly of 2022 , a race polls show a tossup till the last two weeks

[OSR stands with Israel]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

Because Hogan is a Real Moderate of course.

He might make it a little closer than Bredesen did because Democrats love their fake moderates Republicans. Republicans never seem to love moderate or conservative Democrats unless they are in deep blue seats (Cuellar, Lipinski). I can’t fault Republicans for being smart about that. Hopefully Democrats will wise up and won’t back Collins’ re-election bid in any significant numbers next year

Joe Manchin

[Calthrina950]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

Because Hogan is a Real Moderate of course.

He might make it a little closer than Bredesen did because Democrats love their fake moderates Republicans. Republicans never seem to love moderate or conservative Democrats unless they are in deep blue seats (Cuellar, Lipinski). I can’t fault Republicans for being smart about that. Hopefully Democrats will wise up and won’t back Collins’ re-election bid in any significant numbers next year

Joe Manchin

That's not really true. If you go over to the conservative websites, you'll notice that they don't particularly like Manchin, and many of them openly express negative sentiments about him. They would have been glad to see him lose last year. And Manchin's approval ratings are not that impressive, certainly not comparable to those of Hogan or Baker in any way. They used to be-especially when he was Governor-but not anymore.

[OSR stands with Israel]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

Because Hogan is a Real Moderate of course.

He might make it a little closer than Bredesen did because Democrats love their fake moderates Republicans. Republicans never seem to love moderate or conservative Democrats unless they are in deep blue seats (Cuellar, Lipinski). I can’t fault Republicans for being smart about that. Hopefully Democrats will wise up and won’t back Collins’ re-election bid in any significant numbers next year

Joe Manchin

That's not really true. If you go over to the conservative websites, you'll notice that they don't particularly like Manchin, and many of them openly express negative sentiments about him. They would have been glad to see him lose last year. And Manchin's approval ratings are not that impressive, certainly not comparable to those of Hogan or Baker in any way. They used to be-especially when he was Governor-but not anymore.

Thats true but if you go to liberal websites, you will find that they dont like Baker or Hogan either. Conservative Sites and Liberal Sites arent representative of the average voters because people on those sites care more about the smallest policy differences then the average voter does

[Calthrina950]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

Because Hogan is a Real Moderate of course.

He might make it a little closer than Bredesen did because Democrats love their fake moderates Republicans. Republicans never seem to love moderate or conservative Democrats unless they are in deep blue seats (Cuellar, Lipinski). I can’t fault Republicans for being smart about that. Hopefully Democrats will wise up and won’t back Collins’ re-election bid in any significant numbers next year

Joe Manchin

That's not really true. If you go over to the conservative websites, you'll notice that they don't particularly like Manchin, and many of them openly express negative sentiments about him. They would have been glad to see him lose last year. And Manchin's approval ratings are not that impressive, certainly not comparable to those of Hogan or Baker in any way. They used to be-especially when he was Governor-but not anymore.

Thats true but if you go to liberal websites, you will find that they dont like Baker or Hogan either. Conservative Sites and Liberal Sites arent representative of the average voters because people on those sites care more about the smallest policy differences then the average voter does

They are not the end all, but I think it's pretty clear at this point that Republicans in general are more inflexible as regards to their opinions about Democratic officials than the contrary. Public opinion polls and recent electoral results, such as with last year's midterms, show this.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

This race is Safe D. Van Hollen is a high-ranking Democrat in a safe state, so he has tons of cash on his side should he actually look slightly endangered. Also, Maryland has only really shown itself open to Republicans for the office of governor in recent years. The Democratic blood of Maryland is too strong; Charles Mathias was practically a Democrat, and he was the last GOP US Senator from Maryland. Not only that, but Maryland has had Democratic control of their legislature for a century! At least Indiana 2016 had some recent major federal wins for Democrats to bring optimism for Bayh's chances, not even taking into account his past landslides (which were the only thing that Bredesen had going for him - TN has been way too GOP for quite a while at the federal level for any hope of victory, really).

State offices are viewed in a less partisan way, which allowed for Hogan's victory in the first place. While Hogan was winning in 2014 and 2018, most other federal Democrats were romping to victory while Hogan was also winning their districts.

So yeah, I'm not taking this seriously unless poll numbers like this are still showing up in Fall 2022, which is when things went sour for Bayh and Bredesen.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hogan would come far closer than any other Republican... and would still lose by double digits.

In this present political environment. Now, if Maryland were still more open to electing Republicans at the federal level, like it was forty or fifty years ago, then Hogan would have an excellent shot. The last Republican elected to the Senate from Maryland, who held this very same seat, was Barbara Mikulski's predecessor Charles Mathias, who was a liberal Republican. In his last reelection in 1980, Mathias got 66% of the vote and won every county in the state.

It's unfortunate, really. Hogan would make a fine Senator, as would Charlie Baker.

Not really. Hogan is a pretty party line republican, despite his posturing.

And this kind of mentality is pretty much why he doesn't have a chance, at least at running for Senate. But the majority of Maryland voters obviously disagree with you otherwise; if they did agree with you, he would not have been re-elected Governor last year.

I voted for him--- because I appreciate the balance between democratic supermajorities and an R governor, as well as the fact that Jealous would have bankrupted the state, but this fact is true nonetheless, and I know plenty of Hogan Dems who feel the same.

[KaiserDave]

Safe D lol

[IceSpear]

Bayh Bayh

[junior chįmp]

Hogan could keep it competitive by stressing kitchen table issues. If there's any place Hogan has spent alot, its at the kitchen table so he knows what hes talking about

[MT Treasurer]

Hogan could keep it competitive by stressing kitchen table issues. If there's any place Hogan has spent alot, its at the kitchen table so he knows what hes talking about

To say nothing of Jon Tester

[junior chįmp]

Hogan could keep it competitive by stressing kitchen table issues. If there's any place Hogan has spent alot, its at the kitchen table so he knows what hes talking about

To say nothing of Jon Tester

Tester is a farmer who never sells any of his crops....i think we know where they've been going

[Calthrina950]

Hogan could keep it competitive by stressing kitchen table issues. If there's any place Hogan has spent alot, its at the kitchen table so he knows what hes talking about

A very low blow. Hogan is one of the last politicians who ought to be at the receiving end of the kind of flack that is directed at others here. Especially considering that he is a cancer survivor.

[junior chįmp]

Hogan could keep it competitive by stressing kitchen table issues. If there's any place Hogan has spent alot, its at the kitchen table so he knows what hes talking about

A very low blow. Hogan is one of the last politicians who ought to be at the receiving end of the kind of flack that is directed at others here. Especially considering that he is a cancer survivor.

Welcome back to the forums Caltharina...I thought you left? What's new?

[Calthrina950]

Hogan could keep it competitive by stressing kitchen table issues. If there's any place Hogan has spent alot, its at the kitchen table so he knows what hes talking about

A very low blow. Hogan is one of the last politicians who ought to be at the receiving end of the kind of flack that is directed at others here. Especially considering that he is a cancer survivor.

Welcome back to the forums Caltharina...I thought you left? What's new?

I've been back for around two months now, and decided to take my chances here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Van Hollen will beat Hogan; as a result of the Michael Steele v Cardin race. Michael Steele was a pragmatist just like Hogan, but Van Hollen is a fighter and has more AA support than Cardin.

[Galeel]

Safe D obviously. Why is this in question?

[IceSpear]

Safe D obviously. Why is this in question?

Well, Atlas would insist This Time Is Different™ and rate it lean D if it was a poll showing Mike Beebe or Dave Freudenthal winning, lol.

[Brittain33]

Safe D obviously. Why is this in question?

If it’s a Dem mid-term in 2022, a Scott Brown-like upset is possible.

[PragmaticPopulist]

Hogan would come far closer than any other Republican... and would still lose by double digits.

In this present political environment. Now, if Maryland were still more open to electing Republicans at the federal level, like it was forty or fifty years ago, then Hogan would have an excellent shot. The last Republican elected to the Senate from Maryland, who held this very same seat, was Barbara Mikulski's predecessor Charles Mathias, who was a liberal Republican. In his last reelection in 1980, Mathias got 66% of the vote and won every county in the state.

It's unfortunate, really. Hogan would make a fine Senator, as would Charlie Baker.

Not really. Hogan is a pretty party line republican, despite his posturing.

And this kind of mentality is pretty much why he doesn't have a chance, at least at running for Senate. But the majority of Maryland voters obviously disagree with you otherwise; if they did agree with you, he would not have been re-elected Governor last year.

I voted for him--- because I appreciate the balance between democratic supermajorities and an R governor, as well as the fact that Jealous would have bankrupted the state, but this fact is true nonetheless, and I know plenty of Hogan Dems who feel the same.

Basically this. In fact, I think that Hogan can attribute his popularity to having a Dem supermajority to override unpopular vetoes.

Hogan would probably over-perform, maybe even come within a few points of winning  in a Dem midterm, but I think the dynamics of a federal race would be too much for him. Democrats would hammer him on things like not voting to confirm Dem judges.

[Politician]

Safe D obviously. Why is this in question?

Well, Atlas would insist This Time Is Different™ and rate it lean D if it was a poll showing Mike Beebe or Dave Freudenthal winning, lol.

Dave Freudenthal would definitely win. He's conservative

[KaiserDave]

Safe D obviously. Why is this in question?

Well, Atlas would insist This Time Is Different™ and rate it lean D if it was a poll showing Mike Beebe or Dave Freudenthal winning, lol.

Dave Freudenthal would definitely win. He's conservative

Ahahahahaha
You want to become a caricature of yourself?

[Ye We Can]

Van Hollen would obviously win but I could see the margin being very close for Maryland. Something like 55-44 or something.