MD-Sen 2022/WaPo: Hogan +8 over Van Hollen

[Skye]

RV
Hogan (R) 50
Van Hollen (D, inc.) 42

All Adults
Hogan 51
Van Hollen 41

IT'S A TRAP.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/oct-9-14-2019-washington-post-u-md-poll-of-maryland-residents/87dd2791-3ed5-4230-a08e-80f7081038aa/

[Politician]

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

[Woody]

Tilt D for now.

[UncleSam]

Uhhh in a Warren midterm this might be competitive I guess? Probably even then it’s fools gold for the GOP but I could see Hogan starting out with a lead that inevitably dissipates.

[MT Treasurer]

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

Lol, MD isn’t sending a Republican to the Senate, even in a Biden/Warren midterm. His support would collapse even faster than Bayh's and Bredesen's numbers in a federal race.

[Skye]

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

The only "blue" states that have GOP Senators right now are Maine and Colorado. And that could very well change next year.

Plus, MD isn't just some random blue state, it's one of the bluest in the nation. Not only that but Van Hollen is also an incumbent. Hogan would likely lose.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Senators Weld, Lingle, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him to the chamber!

Likely D (lol it’s really Safe D)

[Gracile]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

It would go differently in the sense that Hogan could lose by more than Bredesen because he's facing an incumbent and Maryland is slightly more Democratic than Tennessee is Republican (going off 2016 results).

[Landslide Lyndon]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

Because Hogan is a Real Moderate of course.

[libertpaulian]

Likely D based on these poll numbers, Safe D in reality.

[lfromnj]

Reasonable numbers as of today. See TN senate . Obviously Safe D by election day.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Van Hollmmen will win, depending on our Gov nominee

[2016]

If Trump loses 2022 will be in all likelyhood a BIG Republican Year just like 2010 & 2014 no matter who the Democratic President is.

I don't think Hogan can win here. However he might force Democrats to spent a lot of Resources here.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Senators Weld, Lingle, and Bredesen look forward to welcoming him to the chamber!

Likely D

What's truly ridiculous is that Cook Political had Hawaii as "Lean D" on 11/1/2012. 

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

Lol, MD isn’t sending a Republican to the Senate, even in a Biden/Warren midterm. His support would collapse even faster than Bayh's and Bredesen's numbers in a federal race.

Hogan will win

[Frenchrepublican]

Interesting poll. But I doubt that Hogan would stand a chance in a federal race.

[Frenchrepublican]

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

Senators Kirk (IL) and Brown (MA) agree with this statement.

[Yellowhammer]

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

Lol, MD isn’t sending a Republican to the Senate, even in a Biden/Warren midterm. His support would collapse even faster than Bayh's and Bredesen's numbers in a federal race.

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

Senators Kirk (IL) and Brown (MA) agree with this statement.

Of course they agree, because they are both republicans who were elected to the senate in blue states

[Frenchrepublican]

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

Lol, MD isn’t sending a Republican to the Senate, even in a Biden/Warren midterm. His support would collapse even faster than Bayh's and Bredesen's numbers in a federal race.

Seems believable. Blue states can elect Republican senators.

Senators Kirk (IL) and Brown (MA) agree with this statement.

Of course they agree, because they are both republicans who were elected to the senate in blue states

Well, Kirk was elected in 2010, in the most R leaning midterms in generations and Brown won in a low turnout special election, and both of them faced fairly flawed D candidates. Anyway my point is that both of them were defeated by pretty wide margins despite a very moderate record, and that no, blue states are not open, at least not anymore, to elect senators who don't have a ''D'' next to their name

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

How would this turn out differently than Phil Bredesen?

Because Hogan is a Real Moderate of course.

He might make it a little closer than Bredesen did because Democrats love their fake moderates Republicans. Republicans never seem to love moderate or conservative Democrats unless they are in deep blue seats (Cuellar, Lipinski). I can’t fault Republicans for being smart about that. Hopefully Democrats will wise up and won’t back Collins’ re-election bid in any significant numbers next year

Safe D obviously, though

[Xing]

Hogan would come far closer than any other Republican... and would still lose by double digits.

[Calthrina950]

Hogan would come far closer than any other Republican... and would still lose by double digits.

In this present political environment. Now, if Maryland were still more open to electing Republicans at the federal level, like it was forty or fifty years ago, then Hogan would have an excellent shot. The last Republican elected to the Senate from Maryland, who held this very same seat, was Barbara Mikulski's predecessor Charles Mathias, who was a liberal Republican. In his last reelection in 1980, Mathias got 66% of the vote and won every county in the state.

It's unfortunate, really. Hogan would make a fine Senator, as would Charlie Baker.

[Bidenworth2020]

Hogan would come far closer than any other Republican... and would still lose by double digits.

In this present political environment. Now, if Maryland were still more open to electing Republicans at the federal level, like it was forty or fifty years ago, then Hogan would have an excellent shot. The last Republican elected to the Senate from Maryland, who held this very same seat, was Barbara Mikulski's predecessor Charles Mathias, who was a liberal Republican. In his last reelection in 1980, Mathias got 66% of the vote and won every county in the state.

It's unfortunate, really. Hogan would make a fine Senator, as would Charlie Baker.

Not really. Hogan is a pretty party line republican, despite his posturing.

[Calthrina950]

Hogan would come far closer than any other Republican... and would still lose by double digits.

In this present political environment. Now, if Maryland were still more open to electing Republicans at the federal level, like it was forty or fifty years ago, then Hogan would have an excellent shot. The last Republican elected to the Senate from Maryland, who held this very same seat, was Barbara Mikulski's predecessor Charles Mathias, who was a liberal Republican. In his last reelection in 1980, Mathias got 66% of the vote and won every county in the state.

It's unfortunate, really. Hogan would make a fine Senator, as would Charlie Baker.

Not really. Hogan is a pretty party line republican, despite his posturing.

And this kind of mentality is pretty much why he doesn't have a chance, at least at running for Senate. But the majority of Maryland voters obviously disagree with you otherwise; if they did agree with you, he would not have been re-elected Governor last year.