2020 Generic Ballot / Recruitment / Fundraising / Ratings Megathread v2

[wbrocks67]

YouGov has GCB steady at D+7

https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/sww5v5iven/econTabReport.pdf

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Here's a DCCC poll for CA-25's regular election in November, conducted from May 6-May 10:
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2020/05/14/a-sliver-of-good-news-for-republicans-489219

Smith 48%
Garcia 46%

It's worth noting every internal seen for the special election by Politico showed Smith behind.

In IA-04, a primary poll by American Viewpoint conducted for Randy Feenstra's campaign showed the following:
https://drive.google.com/file/d/12lTkIrwJXXkZko4R0aPdnzpNcy_dttZW/view
May 7-8
350 likely voters
MoE 5.2%

King 39% (-2 from Feenstra's last internal)
Feenstra 36% (+2 from Feenstra's last internal)
Others 9% (+1 from Feenstra's last internal)
Undecided 10% (-5 from Feenstra's last internal)

I'd say Feenstra's best hope is pushing King beneath 35% and triggering a runoff where he can unite the anti-King vote, but that looks unlikely at this point.

Edit: update: 538 have confirmed the DCCC poll was of 675 likely voters.

[Gracile]

Sabato has moved MI-03 to Lean Republican now that Amash is out of the picture:

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/why-2020s-third-party-share-should-be-lower-than-2016/

Also, both Sabato and Cook are keeping CA-25 as a Tossup for the time being. Cook wrote a piece about CA-25 in the general election:

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/house/california-house/ca-25-republicans-triumph-garcia-starts-out-toss-november

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Cook updated senate ratings, moving Perdue to Lean R from Likely R

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/

[Lisa's voting Biden]

DCCC Internal for OH-01 shows Chabot +7 againt Schroder
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1261383050480553993?s=20

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

DCCC Internal for OH-01 shows Chabot +7 againt Schroder
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1261383050480553993?s=20

If the presidential race is close nationally, this will probably be the result. But I'd keep an eye on this one if things start to get really bad for Trump

[ElectionsGuy]

The DCCC poll was 12 points off in the CA-25 special. Can we please ignore it in the future? It's absurd that Biden would be ahead 11 in NE-02, or that Eastman would be trailing 10 points behind him (their hatred of Eastman knows no bounds).

Cook updated senate ratings, moving Perdue to Lean R from Likely R

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/

I think you mean the opposite.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Cook updated senate ratings, moving Perdue to Lean R from Likely R

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/

I think you mean the opposite.

Well they had him at Likely R then moved him to Lean R, which is what I stated.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/georgia-senate/georgia-senates-perdue-moves-lean-republican

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

WPA/Club for Growth (who've endorsed Victoria Spartz) polled the GOP primary (featuring Spartz) in IN-05:

https://www.clubforgrowth.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CfGPAC_IN_CD5_PollingMemo_200514-10-28-17-314.pdf
MoE 4.9%
409 likely voters
May 11-13

Spartz 32%
Brizzi 14%
Henderson 13%
Beckwith 8%
Mitchell 5%
Dietzen 3%
Other 10%
Undecided 21%

First Tuesday Strategies, another Republican firm, have polled some GE challenges in SC-01:
https://www.firsttuesdaystrategies.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/CD1-Poll-May2020.pdf
MoE of 4.4%
500 likely voters
Fielded May 15-18

Generic D 31%
Generic R 50%
Other party 4%
Depends on the candidate 14%
Unsure 1%

Cunningham vs Landing
Cunningham 43%
Landing 45%
Someone else 4%
Undecided 8%

Cunningham vs Mace
Cunningham 44%
Mace 45%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 9%

[ElectionsGuy]

Cook updated senate ratings, moving Perdue to Lean R from Likely R

https://cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings/

I think you mean the opposite.

Well they had him at Likely R then moved him to Lean R, which is what I stated.
https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/senate/georgia-senate/georgia-senates-perdue-moves-lean-republican

You're right, I read it as if the "from" was before the "to".

[Gracile]

IA-04: Randy Feenstra is leading Steve King in a new poll by Public Opinion Strategies for American Future Fund (Feenstra-aligned)-

https://twitter.com/robertblizzard/status/1263050383884197889

Feenstra leads King 41% to 39% in a field of five candidates, and 48% to 41% in a head-to-head matchup with King.

[wbrocks67]

 YouGov +9 this week. The GCB has remarkably consistent this cycle.

[Lognog]

IA-04: Randy Feenstra is leading Steve King in a new poll by Public Opinion Strategies for American Future Fund (Feenstra-aligned)-

https://twitter.com/robertblizzard/status/1263050383884197889

Feenstra leads King 41% to 39% in a field of five candidates, and 48% to 41% in a head-to-head matchup with King.

would that lead to a run off?

[Libertas Vel Mors]

IA-04: Randy Feenstra is leading Steve King in a new poll by Public Opinion Strategies for American Future Fund (Feenstra-aligned)-

https://twitter.com/robertblizzard/status/1263050383884197889

Feenstra leads King 41% to 39% in a field of five candidates, and 48% to 41% in a head-to-head matchup with King.

would that lead to a run off?

No, both are >35

[Gracile]

Sabato's Crystal Ball is moving CA-10 to Safe D in light of recent actions by Ted Howze:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/1263527409061683200

[Pollster]

I suppose you can say this is the first triage of the cycle?

https://twitter.com/kateirby/status/1263500785964417025?s=20

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

[Politician]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

LMAO

[Landslide Lyndon]

I suppose you can say this is the first triage of the cycle?

https://twitter.com/kateirby/status/1263500785964417025?s=20

Oh boy, wait till these folks at NRCC learn about the things their presidential candidate has said.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

Err...Golden has a much better chance of winning than we do of picking up TX-10 or even coming within double-digits in TX-31.  In fact, Golden is more likely than not going to win reelection.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

Err...Golden has a much better chance of winning than we do of picking up TX-10 or even coming within double-digits in TX-31. In fact, Golden is more likely than not going to win reelection.

Jdb, I'm pretty sure an intelligent person like you cannot seriously believe TX-10 and TX-31 are not competitive. Siegel slightly underarm Beto, but that was with little attention to the race and the DCCC not spending that much money on it. And TX-31 John Carter didnt even outrun Cruz! If money is spent on the race it will be competitive.
And no, Golden is not likely to win re election. It's possible but he's definitely the underdog at this point. The voters in the district are not progressives like the bernie cult insisted they were. You really think that Golden is going to win when they put a picture of him next to Kamala Harris in one of their dumb ads and claim "Jared Golden endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who want to overturn hyde amendment and allow your taxpayer dollars to be used to fund infanticide." And it doesnt matter how moderate he is, if he endorses Biden/Harris, he'll be toast.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

No ad buys in Austin despite there being 3-4 competitive seats there. Grossly incompetent.

As far as I can tell it's really just Wendy Davis where the Ds have a good recruit. And Davis has already been a monster fundraiser, TX 31 doesn't have another Hegar tier recruit which is what was really needed as its a bit redder and so is Tx 25. TX 10 should be competitive as Beto did carry it, so its worth a shot of course. TX 17th is a decent bit redder and Beto only barely got within single digits here so its Safe R(although I do wonder how Chet Edwards would have done here)
Inb4 republicans tell me that davis crashed in 2014.
She won a romney +9 suburban district in 2012.
In 2014 she collapsed to awful non white turnout but check her suburban white numbers. For example Sarah davis,s romney+15 , Clinton+15 district was almost carried by Wendy in 2014. Also her austin numbers were better than Obama in 2012. Shes perfect for a white district like tx 21

There’s a good chance Trump loses TX-21, TX-10 and TX-31. These seats were all within five points in 2018 even after being written off by the DCCC

Dccc gonna dccc. These bozos are spending hoardes of money on ME-2 instead even though everyone knows Golden has no chance

Err...Golden has a much better chance of winning than we do of picking up TX-10 or even coming within double-digits in TX-31. In fact, Golden is more likely than not going to win reelection.

Jdb, I'm pretty sure an intelligent person like you cannot seriously believe TX-10 and TX-31 are not competitive. Siegel slightly underarm Beto, but that was with little attention to the race and the DCCC not spending that much money on it. And TX-31 John Carter didnt even outrun Cruz! If money is spent on the race it will be competitive.
And no, Golden is not likely to win re election. It's possible but he's definitely the underdog at this point. The voters in the district are not progressives like the bernie cult insisted they were. You really think that Golden is going to win when they put a picture of him next to Kamala Harris in one of their dumb ads and claim "Jared Golden endorsed Joe Biden and Kamala Harris, who want to overturn hyde amendment and allow your taxpayer dollars to be used to fund infanticide." And it doesnt matter how moderate he is, if he endorses Biden/Harris, he'll be toast.

I'd say ME-2 is Tilt-D although Golden really lucked out that the best the Republicans could do was Eric Brakey.  TX-10 is definitely competitive, but I have it at Lean-R.  TX-31 should be competitive and would've been with Hegar, but as it stands, we don't have a half decent nominee so it is Safe R.

[Gracile]

Inside Elections made several rating changes this afternoon.

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-may-22-2020

Toward Democrats
NY-22 (Brindisi): Tossup > Tilt D
UT-04 (McAdams): Tossup > Tilt D
IL-14 (Underwood): Tilt D > Lean D
NJ-03 (Kim): Tilt D > Lean D
NV-03 (Lee): Lean D > Likely D
CA-10 (Harder): Likely D > Safe D
CA-45 (Porter): Likely D > Safe D
NY-19 (Delgado): Likely D > Safe D
TX-21 (Roy): Likely R > Lean R
MT-AL (OPEN, R): Safe R > Likely R

Toward Republicans
CA-25 (Garcia): Likely D > Tilt D
NC-09 (Bishop): Likely R > Safe R
OH-12 (Balderson): Likely R > Safe R
TX-02 (Crenshaw): Likely R > Safe R
TX-31 (Carter): Likely R > Safe R

[Storr]

Inside Elections made several rating changes this afternoon.

https://insideelections.com/ratings/house/2020-house-ratings-may-22-2020

Toward Democrats
NY-22 (Brindisi): Tossup > Tilt D
UT-04 (McAdams): Tossup > Tilt D
IL-14 (Underwood): Tilt D > Lean D
NJ-03 (Kim): Tilt D > Lean D
NV-03 (Lee): Lean D > Likely D
CA-10 (Harder): Likely D > Safe D
CA-45 (Porter): Likely D > Safe D
NY-19 (Delgado): Likely D > Safe D
TX-21 (Roy): Likely R > Lean R
MT-AL (OPEN, R): Safe R > Likely R

Toward Republicans
CA-25 (Garcia): Likely D > Tilt D
NC-09 (Bishop): Likely R > Safe R
OH-12 (Balderson): Likely R > Safe R
TX-02 (Crenshaw): Likely R > Safe R
TX-31 (Carter): Likely R > Safe R

Why is TX-02 safe R? Bad candidate and poor fundraising?

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Lol TX-31 as Safe R when Biden has a good shot of winning it