Name a current Atlas trope that really, really, really won't age well

[Frenchrepublican]

The biggest is Ohio being a competitive state. Also the stupid idea that AZ/TX/VA will swing/trend R if Dems nominate a SOCIALIST!!!

Oh, and throw in Virginia being a competitive state at all for that matter. And the people who inexplicably somehow still believe Democrats will have a rural surge because of muh soybeanz or something.

Yeah, the ones you are mentioning will probably look absurd after Election Day.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

I too lived in inner city Indianopolis and Bloomington

KS is safe D after talking to all my friends in Lawrence.

[NYSforKennedy2024]

"Andrew Yang's campaign is a complete joke/meaningless and has no chance of winning."

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

A lot of the things being mentioned aren't "tropes" so much as "something a random troll said once."

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

A lot of the things being mentioned aren't "tropes" so much as "something a random troll TrendsAreReal said once."

[MoneyIsAChineseHoax]

1) R+9 Kansas
2) McMullin voters for the Democrat 2020
3) Inevitable Democratic nominee Joe Biden

Inevitable Democratic Nominee Joe Biden!!!!

that was a thing, seriously?!

that will age like milk in the sun, so Biden must win the Great Lakes then right?

[Chief Justice Keef]

“Bernie should drop out so Warren can unite the progressive vote”

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

[Frenchrepublican]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

Well, more than half of atlas believe, according the poll you’re refering that Trump will win less than 55% of the vote in Hamilton County, which is quite crazy to be honest.

[SN2903]

- Pennsylvania being a tossup (it's right on the border of Lean/Likely D)

- Michigan's Senate race being competitive (the margin may not be as big as Peters' first win, but he's safe)

James has a 50 50 chance of winning . Penn is a toss up

[Xing]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

[Frenchrepublican]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

Well, more than half of atlas believe, according the poll you’re refering that Trump will win less than 55% of the vote in Hamilton County, which is quite crazy to be honest.

Trump won 56% in 2016. Why is a <2% swing "quite crazy?"

[Frenchrepublican]

- Michigan is more D than PA or WI. I think MI could be more pro Trump than Atlas thinks.

I live in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump. Therefore IN is going to go way more Dem than Atlas thinks.

I lived in Indiana and literally everyone I know hates Trump or thinks Trump could do more if we let him. Believe in the silent majority of conservative intellectuals

Elizabeth Warren will win Hamilton County on a platform of free roundabouts for all Americans.

Half of Atlas is unironically convinced that Hamilton County is Lean D, so I'm not sure what you're mocking.

Seriously?

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=334882.msg6966109#msg6966109

Well, more than half of atlas believe, according the poll you’re refering that Trump will win less than 55% of the vote in Hamilton County, which is quite crazy to be honest.

Trump won 56% in 2016. Why is a <2% swing "quite crazy?"

See my explanation above. Trump won Hamilton 56/36 in 16, I can see a 2 points swing in terms of margins (Trump wins Hamilton 58/40 for example) but a scenario where Trump loses 2 points in terms of raw numbers ; (and where he wins only 54% of the vote in Hamilton), would mean a landslide defeat for him.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

You clearly have not studied Indiana.

20 years ago Indiana consisted of "Business Republicans" concentrated in the areas around Indianapolis, and "quasi-dixiecrats" in the rural south. Rural counties in the south have massively trended R, while the Indy area has massively trended D. The GOP base in Indiana is becoming more and more working class, while wealthy suburbs are going from overwhelmingly Republican to slightly Republican.

1996:



2016:



Having Hamilton County trend another 2 points to the left of the state is not at all unrealistic given the long-term trends in the state.

[Xing]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

Just because Hamilton hasn't voted to the left of Indiana as a whole recently doesn't mean it won't next year. It's pretty significant that it went from voting leaps and bounds to the right of Indiana to pretty much right in line with the state. If Democrats win next year, does that mean that Vigo has to flip, since it's sided with the winner in every recent election?

[Frenchrepublican]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

You clearly have not studied Indiana.

20 years ago Indiana consisted of "Business Republicans" concentrated in the areas around Indianapolis, and "quasi-dixiecrats" in the rural south. Rural counties in the south have massively trended R, while the Indy area has massively trended D. The GOP base in Indiana is becoming more and more working class, while wealthy suburbs are going from overwhelmingly Republican to slightly Republican.

1996:



2016:



Having Hamilton County trend another 2 points to the left of the state is not at all unrealistic given the long-term trends in the state.

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

[Frenchrepublican]

How is it crazy to think that Hamilton could swing *a little bit* Democratic? If the Democrats win the PV by more, that wouldn't even necessarily translate to a Democratic trend in the county. If people were actually arguing that Hamilton would flip, then sure, that would be crazy, but I don't think anyone has come close to predicting that. Yeah, not every trend is guaranteed to continue to the same extent as in 2016, but almost no one is arguing that this will happen.

Because over the past century you won’t find even one election where Hamilton county voted to the left of Indiana, even in 2016 Hamilton county was a bit to the right of the state as whole.
So if Trump is really under 55% in Hamilton it would mean he is around 55/54% in Indiana as whole, which would translate into a landslide defeat nationwide (the kind of defeat where he loses GA and OH).

Just because Hamilton hasn't voted to the left of Indiana as a whole recently doesn't mean it won't next year. It's pretty significant that it went from voting leaps and bounds to the right of Indiana to pretty much right in line with the state. If Democrats win next year, does that mean that Vigo has to flip, since it's sided with the winner in every recent election?

Recently ? : the record stands over the past 100 years.

And despite mUh trends Hamilton was still to the right of the state in every statewide election in 2018

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

This drifted off the topic of "half of Atlas says Hamilton County is lean D because trends." Why have the goalposts suddenly moved?

These numbers are muddied by the complete unknown of third party performance. If a Libertarian ticket does as well as it did in 2016, Trump will probably fail to break 55%, even while gaining ground in Indiana as a whole. If there is no alternative to Trump on the right, if this is a 1% Lib year, then Trump certainly will do better than 55%.

But since we're dealing with unknowns, the idea of Trump failing to break 55% in Hamilton County is not a crazy idea.

[GAProgressive]

For all the Georgia skeptics...

https://twitter.com/PoliticsReid/status/1179022624665550848

The DNC's completely and total dismal of Georgia would be hilarious if it wasn't so damn infuriating.

[Frenchrepublican]

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

This drifted off the topic of "half of Atlas says Hamilton County is lean D because trends." Why have the goalposts suddenly moved?

These numbers are muddied by the complete unknown of third party performance. If a Libertarian ticket does as well as it did in 2016, Trump will probably fail to break 55%, even while gaining ground in Indiana as a whole. If there is no alternative to Trump on the right, if this is a 1% Lib year, then Trump certainly will do better than 55%.

But since we're dealing with unknowns, the idea of Trump failing to break 55% in Hamilton County is not a crazy idea.

Yeah, sure if third parties collect a even greater share of the vote than in 2016 Trump winning Hamilton 54/36 for example (and thus being held under 55%) is probably but I doubt that third parties will do so well.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Sorry but I know a few things about Indiana politics (I even read something the Howeypolitics Blog)

I know all these trends, and yeah, I know that Hamilton county was once +70% R and I also know these days are not coming back. Now it’s very hard to imagine a scenario where Trump wins Hamilton let’s say 54/44 and wins Indiana 58/40, if Trump is winning Hamilton 54/44, he is winning Indiana 56/42 (at the best) and he is getting trounced 45/53 nationwide. Possible ? Yeah. Probable ? Unlikely

This drifted off the topic of "half of Atlas says Hamilton County is lean D because trends." Why have the goalposts suddenly moved?

These numbers are muddied by the complete unknown of third party performance. If a Libertarian ticket does as well as it did in 2016, Trump will probably fail to break 55%, even while gaining ground in Indiana as a whole. If there is no alternative to Trump on the right, if this is a 1% Lib year, then Trump certainly will do better than 55%.

But since we're dealing with unknowns, the idea of Trump failing to break 55% in Hamilton County is not a crazy idea.

Yeah, sure if third parties collect a even greater share of the vote than in 2016 Trump winning Hamilton 54/36 for example (and thus being held under 55%) is probably but I doubt that third parties will do so well.

Hamilton going 54/41/5 while Indiana goes 56/40/4 is not out of the question. It would probably mean Trump is losing nationally 51/45/4, but I consider that well within the range of reasonable outcomes.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

[Orser67]

Here's one: Tipping point Wisconsin.

That state is so hard to read, but there are a number of really bad signs for him:
1. A suppressed Dem vote in 2016 due to assumptions of a Hillary victory
2. GOP Congressional candidates distancing themselves in 2018 campaigns
3. The Dairy crisis
4. His approvals are worse than the they are nationwide.
5. It's Wisconsin. They defy logic.

If WI moves to the left, then what's your tipping point state? PA?