CBS/Yougov: IA: Biden +3, NH: Warren +1, NV: Sanders +2, SC: Biden +25

[Mr. Morden]

CBS/Yougov polls of the early primary states, conducted Aug. 28 - Sept. 4:

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/cbs-news-battleground-tracker-2020-poll-elizabeth-warren-rises-as-joe-biden-clings-to-delegate-edge/

Iowa:
Biden 29%
Sanders 26%
Warren 17%
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 6%
Klobuchar 2%
Steyer 2%
Booker 2%
O’Rourke 2%
Yang 1%
de Blasio 1%
Gabbard 1%
Delaney 1%
Castro 1%
everyone else at 0%

NH:
Warren 27%
Biden 26%
Sanders 25%
Buttigieg 8%
Harris 7%
Booker 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Steyer 1%
Gabbard 1%
Yang 1%
O’Rourke 1%
everyone else at 0%

Nevada:
Sanders 29%
Biden 27%
Warren 18%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Castro 2%
Steyer 2%
Booker 1%
Sestak 1%
Delaney 1%
Yang 1%
Ryan 1%
de Blasio 1%
Gabbard 1%
everyone else at 0%

SC:
Biden 43%
Sanders 18%
Warren 14%
Harris 7%
Buttigieg 4%
Booker 2%
de Blasio 1%
Gabbard 1%
Steyer 1%
O’Rourke 1%
Klobuchar 1%
Bullock 1%
Delaney 1%
Yang 1%
Ryan 1%
everyone else at 0%

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Go Warren (and Sanders) !

[OkThen]

Pleased about the NH numbers for Warren but Iowa is a bit disappointing.

[Skye]

Wow, that's kind of a surprising number for Sanders in NV.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

Wow, that's kind of a surprising number for Sanders in NV.

Not surprising.

Populist rural areas
Lots of Hispanics
Lots of young Democrats.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Wow, that's kind of a surprising number for Sanders in NV.

Bernie has been polling pretty well among young voters, labor union members, and hispanic voters

[American2020]

The South will be Biden's stronghold and Sanders will be competitive in the West and Warren in the Northeast except Vermont.
Midwest is going to go competitive between Biden and Sanders.

[Gracile]

Wow, that's kind of a surprising number for Sanders in NV.

It's not too surprising. Sanders polls relatively well with Hispanic voters nationwide + Nevada is a heavily unionized state that would be receptive to elements of Sanders' economic message.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Biden wins SC, he will win no.nomination. i guess party is over for Harris

[ShamDam]

As long as Biden wins SC, he will win no.nomination. i guess party is over for Harris

Biden will win SC but I think the margin matters a lot. Hillary got like 73% of the vote there in 2016. If the other contenders can hold him under 50% then the delegate lead could become much more surmountable.

[Zaybay]

Sanders looks better positioned to steal IA away from Biden(and therefore NH), while Warren looks poised to do much better in the Super Tuesday states.

[Mr. Morden]

They also did a wider poll of all four early states + the Super Tuesday states, and Warren actually leads in that poll by one point:

Warren 26%
Biden 25%
Sanders 19%
Harris 8%
Buttigieg 6%
O’Rourke 4%
Castro 2%
Booker 2%
Klobuchar 1%
Yang 1%
Gabbard 1%
Bennet 1%
Bullock 1%
Delaney 1%
everyone else at 0%

I assume that means Warren is leading in California.

Their delegate projection from the poll does have Biden narrowly ahead though:

[Mr. Morden]

Crosstabs in the aggregated early state + Super Tuesday poll:

men:
Warren 26%
Biden 22%
Sanders 19%

women:
Biden 28%
Warren 26%
Sanders 20%

age 18-29:
Sanders 30%
Warren 23%
Biden 11%

age 65+:
Biden 41%
Warren 26%
Sanders 10%

white:
Warren 32%
Biden 19%
Sanders 19%

black:
Biden 46%
Sanders 14%
Harris 11%
Warren 11%

Hispanic:
Biden 26%
Sanders 22%
Warren 19%

[Zaybay]

Here are the changes in the first 4 states:

Iowa:
Biden 29%(+5)
Sanders 26%(+7)
Warren 17%(+/- 0)
Buttigieg 7%(+/- 0)
Harris 6%(-10)
Klobuchar 2%(-2)
Steyer 2%(+2)
Booker 2%(-1)
O’Rourke 2%(+1)

NH:
Warren 27%(+9)
Biden 26%(-1)
Sanders 25%(+5)
Buttigieg 8%(+1)
Harris 7%(-5)
Booker 2%(-1)

Nevada:
Sanders 29%
Biden 27%
Warren 18%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Castro 2%
Steyer 2%
(No previous poll was done by CBS/YouGov)

SC:
Biden 43%(+4)
Sanders 18%(+1)
Warren 14%(+2)
Harris 7%(-5)
Buttigieg 4%(-3)
Booker 2%(-1)

[President Johnson]

I don't buy Bernard is doing that well in Nevada.

[Rookie Yinzer]

I don't buy Bernard is doing that well in Nevada.

It’s heavy unionized, significantly Latino (Bernie’s Best racial demo), and a caucus state. Sanders should be doing well here with his activist base of supporters.

[Tender Branson]

Very sad #s for Gabbard.

She needs to keep on waiting.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Lines up pretty well with my Biden-Warren prediction, where Biden loses IA+NH and is less than 100 delegates ahead after Super Tuesday.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=330874.msg6957977#new

Warren will close the gap even further a week later when Washington, Michigan, and a bunch of Great Plains states vote.

The death knell is March 17, when Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona vote.  Those states are worth nearly 600 delegates between them, and will put Biden solidly in the lead headed into the ACELA primaries, where he's also strong.

The point is, yes it's nice for the other candidates to build up some early momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, but ultimately those states are only worth a handful of delegates.  Biden is going to put up huge delegate margins in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, Texas and Georgia.  If you can't topple Biden in those states, you basically have to double him up in California.  Otherwise you'll be able to beat him in a lot of contests, but unless you're beating him by huge margins you won't overcome the delegate lead from the big states.

[Zaybay]

Lines up pretty well with my Biden-Warren prediction, where Biden loses IA+NH and is less than 100 delegates ahead after Super Tuesday.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=330874.msg6957977#new

Warren will close the gap even further a week later when Washington, Michigan, and a bunch of Great Plains states vote.

The death knell is March 17, when Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona vote.  Those states are worth nearly 600 delegates between them, and will put Biden solidly in the lead headed into the ACELA primaries, where he's also strong.

The point is, yes it's nice for the other candidates to build up some early momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, but ultimately those states are only worth a handful of delegates.  Biden is going to put up huge delegate margins in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, Texas and Georgia.  If you can't topple Biden in those states, you basically have to double him up in California.  Otherwise you'll be able to beat him in a lot of contests, but unless you're beating him by huge margins you won't overcome the delegate lead from the big states.

The one hole in your theory is that this poll doesnt show Warren as the one who could possibly usurp Iowa from Biden.

[Shadows]

This is a terrible poll for Warren & she obviously will struggle to stay beyond Super Tuesday or even compete in Super Tuesday if this is the result. Her strong numbers among White Voters in California, Texas or Virginia or Texas won't matter if she does this way in early states.

She is 10-12% behind Bernie & Biden in both Iowa & Nevada & she is within the MOE in NH. Bernie, Biden & Warren are within 2% which can be easily changed by turnout even in polling is accurate & stays this way.

The Average of Iowa, NH & NV -
Biden 27%, Sanders 27%, Warren 21%

The Average of Iowa, NH, NV & SC -
Biden 31% Sanders 25% Warren 19%

Again Super Tuesday won't matter & candidacy will be finished by then if you do badly in Early 4 States. You will have fundraising falling & a media narrative about a 2 horse race between X & Y. Whoever does badly between Bernie & Warren will be asked in every debate if they should drop out to stop Biden.

For Joe Biden, he holds quite strong in the South but is falling apart it seems among White Voters in Super Tuesday states like CA, Texas, Virginia, Massachusetts & so on & a lot of it is going to Warren. Biden has also lost early state advantage. He is down 2% in NV, down 1% in NH & up 2% in Iowa. All within the MOE. Technically he can will all 3 states or lose all 3 states. You can't lose all 3 states & go to SC. You will be bleeding support.

This is a great poll for Bernie. National polls & Super Tuesday polls are irrelevant @ this point. Sanders is leading in NV (within MOE), is 2% down in Iowa & NH to Biden & Warren, all within MOE & can be made with turnout. He is will positioned to win all 3 early states & head to SC 3-0. Or he could lose all 3 & go 0-3.

Iowa & NH will be critical & Iowa is going to set the narrative & if Sanders finishes above Warren in NH, she is done.

[LAKISYLVANIA]

This is a terrible poll for Warren

Worth noting that IA & NV polling is hard. And she does well in NH. Sanders winning IA and NV, and her winning NH is ideal scenario.

[Shadows]

Lines up pretty well with my Biden-Warren prediction, where Biden loses IA+NH and is less than 100 delegates ahead after Super Tuesday.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=330874.msg6957977#new

Warren will close the gap even further a week later when Washington, Michigan, and a bunch of Great Plains states vote.

The death knell is March 17, when Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona vote.  Those states are worth nearly 600 delegates between them, and will put Biden solidly in the lead headed into the ACELA primaries, where he's also strong.

The point is, yes it's nice for the other candidates to build up some early momentum in Iowa and New Hampshire, but ultimately those states are only worth a handful of delegates.  Biden is going to put up huge delegate margins in Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New York, Texas and Georgia.  If you can't topple Biden in those states, you basically have to double him up in California.  Otherwise you'll be able to beat him in a lot of contests, but unless you're beating him by huge margins you won't overcome the delegate lead from the big states.

The one hole in your theory is that this poll doesnt show Warren as the one who could possibly usurp Iowa from Biden.

This is terrible for Warren. She is down 12% off in both Iowa & Nevada, a distant 3rd. She is 3rd in SC. She is 1st in NH but 3rd place person is within 2%, the MOE.

If you come 3rd in Iowa, 12% down, you will lose many % points in NH compared to where you were. And then if you are down 12% in NV & 3rd in SC, you will crash in Super Tuesday.

Warren had a good poll in NH & bad in NV & Iowa but NH is way too close to be anywhere comfortable.

[Comrade Funk]

Edit: LOL at Shadows continuing his anti-Warren crusade. We get it. Anyone but Bernie is a neoliberal whore. #Stein/Sarandon2020

[Shadows]

This is a terrible poll for Warren

Worth noting that IA & NV polling is hard. And she does well in NH. Sanders winning IA and NV, and her winning NH is ideal scenario.

If Sanders wins Iowa, he will NH easily. Iowa Winner will get some bump, like 4-5% or something like that in NH. If Bernie would have lost Iowa by 20% to Hillary, he would have won NH by 7-10% & not 20-22%. The 1st result helps. It shapes the narrative. There is a debate after Iowa. All the media will do is ask the 3rd person among Bernie, Warren & Biden, if there are serious about the race & if there are fading. Do we have a 2 horse race?

And then NH is like make or break. If she doesn't win NH after coming 3rd in Iowa & if she finishes behind Bernie & then is likely to come 3rd in NV & SC, she has to drop out before Super Tuesday or anyways her campaign will tank.

Iowa is a lot more important than people realize. You don't have to win but atleast come 2nd or within 2-3-4% of the winner.

[GeneralMacArthur]

The one hole in your theory is that this poll doesnt show Warren as the one who could possibly usurp Iowa from Biden.

Yep, although I think Warren is a tougher opponent for Biden than Bernie.  We've already seen how Bernie gets crushed, and I don't see much room for dramatic improvement over the 2016 map, where he ended up with a 400 delegate deficit.

Bernie also would absolutely have to win a delegate majority, because there's no chance in hell any superdelegates will vote for him on the second ballot, and his super-aggressive campaign means his primary opponents aren't likely to throw delegates to him either.