CBS/Yougov: IA: Biden +3, NH: Warren +1, NV: Sanders +2, SC: Biden +25

[Canis]

Looks like Pete fell off in ia a lot haha

[Shadows]

Edit: LOL at Shadows continuing his anti-Warren crusade. We get it. Anyone but Bernie is a neoliberal whore. #Stein/Sarandon2020

You can keep making IDIOTIC comments. Being 12% down in the 1st state in Iowa & 12% down in Nevada & then leading 3rd place by 2% in NH & coming 3rd in SC is not an ideal scenario.

This has nothing to do with policy or personalities but how polling stands. Harris virtually has no chance even if she does well with black voters because by the time SC comes, the narrative will be set.

Obama had to win Iowa. Iowa, NH, NV & SC will shape the race in a huge way.

[Continential]

Good news for Sanders and for Warren in New Hampshire.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Also LOL @ Shadows claiming this is a bad poll for Warren when she's winning in the poll, and that Sanders is gonna crush when he's solidly in third place.

[Shadows]

Also LOL @ Shadows claiming this is a bad poll for Warren when she's winning in the poll, and that Sanders is gonna crush when he's solidly in third place.

How is she winning? She is in 3rd in Early 4 States? She is like 12% behind Biden & 6 % behind Sanders. She is in 3rd place in 3 of the Early States & by like 10-12% in 2 States. Her only win in within the MOE.

How is this a good poll for Warren?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

These polls are completely awful for the Sanders camp. New Hampshire should be an absolute lock for Bernie Sanders. I would be very anxious if I was a Sanders supporter.

It's no wonder Shadows has posted 5 times in this thread already - he's quaking in his boots.

[Zaybay]

Also LOL @ Shadows claiming this is a bad poll for Warren when she's winning in the poll, and that Sanders is gonna crush when he's solidly in third place.

I dont agree with Shadows, but those numbers really dont mean anything. The primary isnt held on 1 day, and so the Early States matter much more(specifically IA) than states like AL or TX when it comes to deciding whos in 1st, 2nd, etc. While Warren seems much stronger overall, the lack of strength in the early states(barring NH) wouldnt give her the momentum to actually capitalize on the delegates she could reap on Super Tuesday.

[Shadows]

Just to remind people the last Iowa Poll of CBS/Yougov had the following results -

Biden 24%
Sanders 19%
Warren 17%
Harris 16%

This poll -

Biden 29% (+5)
Sanders 26% (+7)
Warren 17% (NC)
Buttigieg 7%
Harris 6% (-10%)

Despite Harris falling & Warren being the #2 choice among Harris voters, Warren gains 0% in Iowa. Sanders gains 7% & narrows the gap to Biden to 3%. Last Poll Biden was ahead of Warren by 7%. This poll he is ahead by 12%.

Anyone know believes NH is a lock for anyone is an absolute IDIOT. Warren is from Massachusetts. Boston Media Market is much bigger & most of Southern NH shares the same media market with Massachusetts & that is also a huge advantage for Warren. NH knows Warren in & out.  Kerry had beaten Dean in 2004 as well in a Massachusetts vs Vermont battle. When has a Massachusetts Senator ever lost NH in the Dem Primary? Never.

If anything NH should be a lock for Warren & she has no path without it considering she is 10-12% behind in Iowa & Nevada. And if the logic if Sanders winning in 2016 should mean he should win in 2020. Then he should win all states in 2020 & Warren/Biden should drop out now given Sanders already had like 46% of the vote & these guys have 0.

That is an idiotic logic !

[soundchaser]

Friendly reminder that there are five months before voting begins and several candidates haven’t shared a debate stage yet.

[Eraserhead]

Here are the changes in the first 4 states:

Iowa:
Biden 29%(+5)
Sanders 26%(+7)
Warren 17%(+/- 0)
Buttigieg 7%(+/- 0)
Harris 6%(-10)
Klobuchar 2%(-2)
Steyer 2%(+2)
Booker 2%(-1)
O’Rourke 2%(+1)

NH:
Warren 27%(+9)
Biden 26%(-1)
Sanders 25%(+5)
Buttigieg 8%(+1)
Harris 7%(-5)
Booker 2%(-1)

Nevada:
Sanders 29%
Biden 27%
Warren 18%
Harris 6%
Buttigieg 4%
O’Rourke 3%
Castro 2%
Steyer 2%
(No previous poll was done by CBS/YouGov)

SC:
Biden 43%(+4)
Sanders 18%(+1)
Warren 14%(+2)
Harris 7%(-5)
Buttigieg 4%(-3)
Booker 2%(-1)

Harris straight up imploded. Yikes.

[Eraserhead]

These polls are completely awful for the Sanders camp. New Hampshire should be an absolute lock for Bernie Sanders. I would be very anxious if I was a Sanders supporter.

It's no wonder Shadows has posted 5 times in this thread already - he's quaking in his boots.

The New Hampshire poll isn't great (even though he did improve in it since their last one) and South Carolina looks horrible for anyone but Biden as usual but you can't make a serious argument that the Iowa & Nevada numbers aren't good for Sanders. 

[Politician]

These polls are completely awful for the Sanders camp. New Hampshire should be an absolute lock for Bernie Sanders. I would be very anxious if I was a Sanders supporter.

It's no wonder Shadows has posted 5 times in this thread already - he's quaking in his boots.

Bernie Sanders leading in a state he lost in 2016 is not awful for him.

[ProudModerate2]

Those are some tight races (IA, NH and NV).

[Sorenroy]

I decided to do a little bit of work on the numbers to figure out what Super Tuesday might look like based on what we've got. Because it's always hard to judge exactly how many people are going to vote in each state's primary, I used the number of votes Clinton got in 2016 as my base for the share of the primary electorate in each state.

Early States (Conglomerated):
Biden — 33%
Sanders — 24%
Warren — 18%
Harris — 7%
Buttigieg — 5%
Booker — 2%
O'Rourke — 2%
Steyer — 1%
Klobuchar — 1%
Gabbard — 1%
Yang — 1%
de Blasio — 1%
Delaney — 1%
Castro — 1%
Ryan — 1%
Bullock — 0%
Sestak — 0%
Bennet — 0%
Messam — 0%
Williamson — 0%


Super Tuesday:
Warren — 27%
Biden — 24%
Sanders — 19%
Harris — 8%
Buttigieg — 6%
O'Rourke — 4%
Castro — 2%
Booker — 2%
Bennet — 1%
Bullock — 1%
Delaney — 1%
Gabbard — 1%
Yang — 1%
Klobuchar — 1%
Messam — 0%
Williamson — 0%
Sestak — 0%
Ryan — 0%
de Blasio — 0%
Steyer — 0%


Of course, YouGov did not release their raw data, so there are some small differences here and there due to intermittent rounding. However, if nothing else, it is an interesting bit of data.


I also decided to try and compare this CBS News poll of early states to the latest YouGov/Economist national tracking poll. Both polls cover a similar span of time (August 8th - September 4th for CBS, September 1st - 3rd for the Economist), include the same 20 candidate names, and sample likely voters. Unfortunately, the differences in hiring firm and the fact that the two samples do not overlap means that the numbers come out looking really rough. I tried to force some sort of comparison, but you can see how that turned out.


Post-Super Tuesday:
Biden — 27%
Warren — 17%
Sanders — 10%
Buttigieg — 6%
Gabbard — 4%
Yang — 4%
de Blasio — 3%
Harris — 3%
Castro — 2%
Messam — 2%
Ryan — 2%
Williamson — 2%
Bennet — 1%
Delaney — 1%
Booker — 0%
Sestak — 0%
Steyer — 0%
Bullock — -1%
Klobuchar — -1%
O'Rourke — -1%


Google Sheets Document

[Mr. Morden]

Biden still wins SC but with Sanders a clear 2nd.  Warren's support probably fades and enough goes to Sanders for him to win NV?

Nevada votes before South Carolina.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Biden still wins SC but with Sanders a clear 2nd.  Warren's support probably fades and enough goes to Sanders for him to win NV?

Nevada votes before South Carolina.

**Jon Ralston intensifies**

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Sanders plummets into a virtual tie for 1st in the early states.  Pretty devastating for Team Sanders! 

KamLOLa Harris otoh...

[IceSpear]

Friendly reminder that there are five months before voting begins and several candidates haven’t shared a debate stage yet.

I vehemently disagree. I think this September poll will be literally identical to the results five months from now, and nobody will ever convince me otherwise. Until the October polls show something different anyway.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

My god, Bernie is doomed being 3 points down in IA, 2 points down in NH, 2 points up in NV, and 2nd place in SC.

[Sir Mohamed]

My prediction is Warren will win IA and change the dynamics of the race in her favor. If I was a Biden adviser, I'd emphasize to focus on IA, because if he wins there, he could win at least 3 of the 4 early contests.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

My prediction is Warren will win IA and change the dynamics of the race in her favor. If I was a Biden adviser, I'd emphasize to focus on IA, because if he wins there, he could win at least 3 of the 4 early contests.

Conversely, if Biden beats Warren in Iowa that’ll dent a lot of momentum she’s built up.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I don't buy Bernard is doing that well in Nevada.

Why would the leading candidate of Hispanics (who also has strong support from unions) not be doing well in Nevada?

[Shadows]

My prediction is Warren will win IA and change the dynamics of the race in her favor. If I was a Biden adviser, I'd emphasize to focus on IA, because if he wins there, he could win at least 3 of the 4 early contests.

Iowa is going to huge for everyone. Biden could win all 4 early states if he wins Iowa, including NH.

If Bernie wins Iowa in the face of all this non-sense, he will be favorite to win NH (a state he won last time where he has a huge 2016 base & donor base) & then will head to Nevada with huge momentum.

If Warren wins Iowa, she will win NH, or will be favored to. A Massachusetts Senator has never lost the Dem Primary in NH in decades. Kerry beat Dean too. Warren is a woman, seems more fresh than Bernie & has the Boston Media Market. If Warrens wins Iowa & NH, Sanders' Nevada base will fall.

Iowa is very important for all candidates. Given how close polling is in NH (Within the MOE), the person who wins Iowa could NH. And it won't be easy to stop a candidate who is 2-0 up going to Nevada !

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Sanders, will win IA, NH and NV, I believe, replacing Biden.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

My prediction is Warren will win IA and change the dynamics of the race in her favor. If I was a Biden adviser, I'd emphasize to focus on IA, because if he wins there, he could win at least 3 of the 4 early contests.

Iowa is going to huge for everyone. Biden could win all 4 early states if he wins Iowa, including NH.

If Bernie wins Iowa in the face of all this non-sense, he will be favorite to win NH (a state he won last time where he has a huge 2016 base & donor base) & then will head to Nevada with huge momentum.

If Warren wins Iowa, she will win NH, or will be favored to. A Massachusetts Senator has never lost the Dem Primary in NH in decades. Kerry beat Dean too. Warren is a woman, seems more fresh than Bernie & has the Boston Media Market. If Warrens wins Iowa & NH, Sanders' Nevada base will fall.

Iowa is very important for all candidates. Given how close polling is in NH (Within the MOE), the person who wins Iowa could NH. And it won't be easy to stop a candidate who is 2-0 up going to Nevada !

It’s good for Bernie and Warren than South Carolina comes after Nevada. South Carolina will (at this point) heavily favor Biden. If Warren or Bernie win the first three states, the race effectively will become a two person race. The loser of the two progressives might win their own state on Super Tuesday (especially Bernie), but little else. If the first three states aren’t clear for one of the two progressives, Biden will likely win the nomination.