LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Miles]

^ That.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

The historical trend here I imagine is rooted in the fact that EV in LA generally lags the country in terms of adoption: only 28% of voters cast an early ballot in the 2019 primary (a majority of the country voted early in both 2016 & 2018 as I recall). I'm not even sure if AIP voting has been available for more than a few years.

LA's unique system also de facto means that we're talking about a primary versus a general election here (as opposed to one distinct primary and one distinct GE in most other states, or in the case of a state like GA, a primary, a general election and a general election runoff).

Since the election occurs on a Saturday, fewer younger and/or non-whites are obligated to vote early. Likewise, the EV has historically been disproportionately ABM, which likewise has tended to skew older and whiter pretty much everywhere (LA or otherwise).

There's presumably less pushing of likely Democrats to vote in the primary due to a greater share being low-propensity; if you can only get them to turn out once, then obviously you want that to happen in a runoff/LA-style general election (though admittedly 2019 may not have been such a situation, since JBE hitting 50 was a goal/possibility in October).

At any rate, I'm deferring to JMC's understanding of how these skewings work simply because I haven't kept track of how much more D/R the vote gets on ED in LA with each cycle. But generally and as of late, a huge surge in Democratic EV means a better performance for the GOP on ED via cannibalization and/or much higher turnout than expected.

Doesn't this go against the idea that the early vote is more Democratic in the run-off than in the primary?   I can understand why the primary would have greater a greater proportion of its  turnout be GOP than the run-off due to greater DEM participation in the latter, but I don't see why that would be true of the early vote more than for the election day vote.

[MaxQue]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

The historical trend here I imagine is rooted in the fact that EV in LA generally lags the country in terms of adoption: only 28% of voters cast an early ballot in the 2019 primary (a majority of the country voted early in both 2016 & 2018 as I recall). I'm not even sure if AIP voting has been available for more than a few years.

LA's unique system also de facto means that we're talking about a primary versus a general election here (as opposed to one distinct primary and one distinct GE in most other states, or in the case of a state like GA, a primary, a general election and a general election runoff).

Since the election occurs on a Saturday, fewer younger and/or non-whites are obligated to vote early. Likewise, the EV has historically been disproportionately ABM, which likewise has tended to skew older and whiter pretty much everywhere (LA or otherwise).

There's presumably less pushing of likely Democrats to vote in the primary due to a greater share being low-propensity; if you can only get them to turn out once, then obviously you want that to happen in a runoff/LA-style general election (though admittedly 2019 may not have been such a situation, since JBE hitting 50 was a goal/possibility in October).

At any rate, I'm deferring to JMC's understanding of how these skewings work simply because I haven't kept track of how much more D/R the vote gets on ED in LA with each cycle. But generally and as of late, a huge surge in Democratic EV means a better performance for the GOP on ED via cannibalization and/or much higher turnout than expected.

Doesn't this go against the idea that the early vote is more Democratic in the run-off than in the primary?   I can understand why the primary would have greater a greater proportion of its  turnout be GOP than the run-off due to greater DEM participation in the latter, but I don't see why that would be true of the early vote more than for the election day vote.

This time, early primary White turnout was higher than usual, due to a important college football match on Election Day.

[Adam Griffin]

Just to highlight what was mentioned above:

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1193908835569819658

Why would GOP voters vote early in the primary but not in the run-off?   Or the reverse for the Democrats?

The historical trend here I imagine is rooted in the fact that EV in LA generally lags the country in terms of adoption: only 28% of voters cast an early ballot in the 2019 primary (a majority of the country voted early in both 2016 & 2018 as I recall). I'm not even sure if AIP voting has been available for more than a few years.

LA's unique system also de facto means that we're talking about a primary versus a general election here (as opposed to one distinct primary and one distinct GE in most other states, or in the case of a state like GA, a primary, a general election and a general election runoff).

Since the election occurs on a Saturday, fewer younger and/or non-whites are obligated to vote early. Likewise, the EV has historically been disproportionately ABM, which likewise has tended to skew older and whiter pretty much everywhere (LA or otherwise).

There's presumably less pushing of likely Democrats to vote in the primary due to a greater share being low-propensity; if you can only get them to turn out once, then obviously you want that to happen in a runoff/LA-style general election (though admittedly 2019 may not have been such a situation, since JBE hitting 50 was a goal/possibility in October).

At any rate, I'm deferring to JMC's understanding of how these skewings work simply because I haven't kept track of how much more D/R the vote gets on ED in LA with each cycle. But generally and as of late, a huge surge in Democratic EV means a better performance for the GOP on ED via cannibalization and/or much higher turnout than expected.

Doesn't this go against the idea that the early vote is more Democratic in the run-off than in the primary?   I can understand why the primary would have greater a greater proportion of its  turnout be GOP than the run-off due to greater DEM participation in the latter, but I don't see why that would be true of the early vote more than for the election day vote.

Honestly I may have just confused myself along the way with the back-and-forth discussion of EV/ED & primary/general-runoff comparisons, but...if I'm reading everything correctly, some of my underlying assumption there was:

1) because younger and non-white voters are less likely to be intently following (or even participate in) a primary, they're less likely overall to vote - especially early; for a sizable segment who do end up participating, it's going to be more as a result of last-minute awareness that forces them to vote on Election Day (lower turnout contests in general tend to have smaller shares of the electorate casting ballots early). Because ED voting is on a Saturday, this doesn't lead to a catastrophic collapse in black turnout overall in the primary like it would in places that vote on weekdays.

2) because there's greater awareness in most cases involving a general/runoff than a primary, lower-propensity groups are going to be more aware as a whole. Combined with presumably stronger GOTV, standard Democratic voting behaviors become stronger and a greater share end up voting early in the general/runoff.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/elizabethcrisp/status/1195148850383785984

XD

We cannot let this man lose!

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Donald Trump is absolutely nobody to determine who is an American patriot and who is not. I’m getting tired of the right continously sweeping aside JBE’s patriotism and service to the nation

[Tender Branson]

Advance voting has passed 500.000 votes as of yesterday, as more postal ballots are returned.

Black vote still at 31.1%

[DINGO Joe]

LA Voter registration

63.4% white 31.3 black 5.3 other

Early vote

65.9% white 31.1 black 2.9 other

Primary early vote

72.0% white 25.4 black 2.6 other

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

[DINGO Joe]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

You do realize that David Duke has run statewide twice where he won a majority of the white vote.  What makes you think Rispone hasn't voted for Duke in the past?  He sure acts like a Dukie.

[Cinemark]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Calling racist people racist in ads probably won’t go over too well in the white south

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

[BP🌹]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

FYI, NOLA is New Orleans. I've never once seen it referring to Northern Louisiana.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

FYI, NOLA is New Orleans. I've never once seen it referring to Northern Louisiana.

Yeah I was confused as hell when I was reading that “uh NOLA is nowhere near abraham’s district”

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

FYI, NOLA is New Orleans. I've never once seen it referring to Northern Louisiana.

My mistake. Nonetheless, the point stands.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

[Bidenworth2020]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

Maybe if they heard it. My whole point is this ad is specifically tailored as a radio ad (and a less prominent one at that it appears) for NOLA, not Northern Lousiana. It seems fairly unlikely it spreads that far, especially a day before the election.

[libertpaulian]

I'm just glad the national Democrats are staying out of this race.

[Tintrlvr]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

Nobody hears about this stuff unless they actually see the ad themselves or are in the <5% of voters that are super-duper tuned into politics all the time. And the latter type of people are nearly all hardened partisans or have otherwise already made up their minds anyway.

[libertpaulian]

I wonder how many Trump voters JBE will get.

[Donerail]

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

Nobody hears about this stuff unless they actually see the ad themselves or are in the <5% of voters that are super-duper tuned into politics all the time. And the latter type of people are nearly all hardened partisans or have otherwise already made up their minds anyway.

^^This is correct — moreover, this model has already been "field tested" in a sense. The Jones campaign contracted with a black consulting firm and told them to run whatever the hell they wanted — Moore in a hood, Moore next to burning crosses, the whole nine yards. The infamous "Think if a black man went after high school girls?" was the most extreme but nowhere near the only one. Worked out okay for him.

[DINGO Joe]

I'm a registered Democrat and my wife is a registered Independent (though to the left of me) who also has a different last name.  We'll get mailers from the same candidates on the same day that have been obviously tailored to different audiences. Occasionally, my wife will even get Republican mailers, which seems foolish in Orleans Parish and just make her mad.   Very rarely, we'll get mailers addressed to both of us where they apparently have figured out we're married. 

[libertpaulian]

I know that social media is one of the last things we should be looking at as a potential factor for a candidate's success or failure; however, I notice that JBE's Facebook posts have more positive responses than negative. 

Last year, McCaskill and Donnelly got ratio'd in nearly all of their FB posts, especially after Kavanaugh.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Democrats have made ads comparing Rispone to David Duke.

Allies of the governor are also blanketing the radio airwaves and urging people to vote. In one spot running in New Orleans, [State Sen. Troy] Carter likens Rispone and Trump to white supremacist David Duke, much like an ad launched by the Black Organization for Leadership Development last week that was turned into a Rispone campaign ad slamming the governor. The state Democratic Party paid for Carter’s ad, he said, and he pointed to comments Duke has made in recent days embracing the Republican.

https://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_18d64684-066d-11ea-86a2-fbfab989991e.html

I feel like this will most likely backfire by heightening defensive partisanship, maybe even cost Edwards the election.

Ripose went hard right in the primary, painting Abraham as a Pelosi loving liberal.

Makes sense for Edwards to try and win over those more moderate Abraham voters.

Both of your guys' points are bad. For Shua, notice that the ad is only running in New Orleans, an area that WOULD respond well to this type of advertisement, not statewide,  and Cinemark, you are failing to realize that Abraham's District almost voted for Duke in 91 if not just voted for him outright. Abraham's seat includes a sizable portion of his NoLa base.

You can't hide the fact that you are running an ad like this from a different demographic or a different part of the state, it's not the 1840s.   This kind of stuff absolutely does make Republican-leaners have second thoughts before crossing party lines.

Maybe if they heard it. My whole point is this ad is specifically tailored as a radio ad (and a less prominent one at that it appears) for NOLA, not Northern Lousiana. It seems fairly unlikely it spreads that far, especially a day before the election.

What makes you think everyone in the NOLA region is a solid Democrat and that no one in the state reads the newspaper or watches the local news?