OH-Quinnipiac: Biden +8, other match ups competitive
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May 07, 2021, 04:20:43 PM

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  OH-Quinnipiac: Biden +8, other match ups competitive
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Biden +8, other match ups competitive  (Read 3429 times)
America Needs Jesus Christ
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« Reply #50 on: July 25, 2019, 05:49:29 PM »

I think that this poll is probably more friendly towards Democrats than Ohio will ultimately be, but I do want to note that Trump's approval in Ohio in the midterms was likely not +7.  After the 2016 elections, FOX decided to switch to an enhanced version, called voter analysis.  It shows his midterm approval at -2 and his favorability at +2, which seems a little more likely to me.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #51 on: July 25, 2019, 06:50:12 PM »

Ha! Yeah, this won't last.
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Teflon Joe.
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« Reply #52 on: July 25, 2019, 07:04:11 PM »

Uncle Joe is knockin' it out of the park. The rust belt is coming home for the Dems.

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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #53 on: July 25, 2019, 07:08:33 PM »

Quinnipiac is an embarrassment and should not be taken seriously.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #54 on: July 25, 2019, 07:27:42 PM »

Quinnipiac is an embarrassment and should not be taken seriously.

Huh Huh Huh

Their polling has been pretty reliable, statistically speaking.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #55 on: July 26, 2019, 12:57:54 AM »

I think that this poll is probably more friendly towards Democrats than Ohio will ultimately be, but I do want to note that Trump's approval in Ohio in the midterms was likely not +7.  After the 2016 elections, FOX decided to switch to an enhanced version, called voter analysis.  It shows his midterm approval at -2 and his favorability at +2, which seems a little more likely to me.

Good point....

Also, since nobody else has mentioned it on this thread (unless I missed something), polling in OH gets really tricky because of the extremely large number of Major Media Markets, which makes it harder than many other states to poll (Florida exhibits similar characteristics and polling issues).

I wouldn't hold my breath on any poll out of OH this early on, until we start to see additional data points that confirm this is a real shift in OH....

That being said.... Trump hasn't really succeeded in bringing good paying Union jobs back to OH last time I checked, despite his economic-protectionist policies.

Wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of "buyers remorse" from '08/'12 Obama >Trump  voters on this topic.....
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #56 on: July 26, 2019, 06:29:46 PM »

Quinnipiac is an embarrassment and should not be taken seriously.

Huh Huh Huh

Their polling has been pretty reliable, statistically speaking.

Their Florida numbers from last year really s*** the bed. I think that's mostly what people are referring to. I guess it's fair to still consider them a quality pollster when that state in question isn't the Sunshine State.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #57 on: July 27, 2019, 07:43:50 AM »

Quinnipiac is an embarrassment and should not be taken seriously.

Huh Huh Huh

Their polling has been pretty reliable, statistically speaking.

Their Florida numbers from last year really s*** the bed. I think that's mostly what people are referring to. I guess it's fair to still consider them a quality pollster when that state in question isn't the Sunshine State.

Last year they gave to Cordray a 2 pts lead and a 17 pts lead to Brown. Their polls are just bad.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #58 on: July 27, 2019, 07:49:17 AM »

Biden isnt gonna take Harris as Veep, he will pick Bennet or Tim Ryan, either ome can help win OH. Cordray isnt Biden
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ProudModerate2
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« Reply #59 on: July 27, 2019, 01:03:51 PM »
« Edited: July 27, 2019, 01:07:33 PM by ProudModerate2 »

Has this poll been adjusted for turnout? Must be why Biden is so high and Warren Harris are so low. Only reason.

It's RV, not LV, which is of course less accurate. Also, I'm not sure that Biden would generate the highest turnout if this was the implication of your post. I'm actually worried about excitement with Biden. Just look at his speeches; the dude isn't creating that much enthusiasm.

Almost every poll released so far has had Biden doing signifigently better in the GE than other candidates. In this factor, the poll is not an outlier.

Look, under the right circumstances with really good candidates, we could flip Ohio, there is still a shot that it happens, but 8 points? Come on, everyone knows now that is just ridiculous.

What I said was that Biden overpreforming the rest of the field by a signifigent margin isnt an outlier when looking at major polling, not that the poll was correct or even accurate.

Agree.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #60 on: July 27, 2019, 06:16:40 PM »

Quinnipiac is an embarrassment and should not be taken seriously.

Huh Huh Huh

Their polling has been pretty reliable, statistically speaking.

Their Florida numbers from last year really s*** the bed. I think that's mostly what people are referring to. I guess it's fair to still consider them a quality pollster when that state in question isn't the Sunshine State.

Last year they gave to Cordray a 2 pts lead and a 17 pts lead to Brown. Their polls are just bad.

That poll showing Cordray up isn't that much of a f*** up, but yeah that Brown number is, I almost forgot about that. I guess the real rule of thumb means that Quinnipiac shouldn't be trusted with states often considered bellwethers.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #61 on: August 01, 2019, 08:25:26 AM »

I think that this poll is probably more friendly towards Democrats than Ohio will ultimately be, but I do want to note that Trump's approval in Ohio in the midterms was likely not +7.  After the 2016 elections, FOX decided to switch to an enhanced version, called voter analysis.  It shows his midterm approval at -2 and his favorability at +2, which seems a little more likely to me.

1. Collapses of support happen, and polling can reflect those. Those collapses at first look like outliers. If the politician recovers quickly enough, then a 'bad' poll may simply be a reflection of a short-term situation that loses its relevance. OK, so the President said something offensive and people forget it after things cool off a bit. Then a split of approval at 40-55 (which if maintained indicates a nearly-sure defeat), down from a level of 46-50 (shaky but winnable), drifts back to perhaps 45-48 (again shaky but winnable).

2. Collapses would seem to indicate the peeling-away of potential support as constituencies go from acceptance to rejection. Such would appear in other states than the state polled. At roughly the same time I saw poor polling results for the President from such states as  Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Texas. A result in one state that does not appear in others might be an outlier -- but in several at roughly the same time, it might suggest at the least a widespread, temporary drop in support. Several polls suggesting much the same in the same state suggest permanence.

3. It is easy to deny an outlier. Do you remember the visceral contempt of liberals for Donald Trump in 2016? It is still there, and it may be more intense than ever, although it might not show  in polls. We do not see polls rating 'on a scale of 0 to 10'. Liberals generally did not see the Clinton collapse and Trump surge in 2016 until it appeared very late as seeming outliers. The seeming outliers were the reality. One can draw conclusions about electoral strategy and the effectiveness of a campaign in holding old rules in contempt -- but those rules exist for good reason.

4. Most politicians contemplate how they will govern once elected and have no fear of making fools of themselves in public office under the scrutiny of news media. Trump has broken that rule, and those who break the rules can be geniuses or fools depending on the validity of the rule. Shakespeare, Goya, Jefferson, Beethoven, Pasteur, and Einstein broke the rules of their time and got away with it. The lunatic and the inebriate say crazy things that prove upon quick judgment lacking in validity might be arrested and locked up for their own safety. I will spare us all an assessment of where Trump lies on the continuum between fool and genius.

5. It would seem that the 2016 election is of little relevance to current realities of support and rejection of Donald Trump. The April blizzard cannot preclude a heat wave in May.

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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #62 on: August 01, 2019, 12:23:05 PM »

I know its hard to believe to GoPers and blue avatars that OH and IA, Trump overperformed in a can be won by Biden. Makes sense, since Reynolds and DeWine only won their races by 3.5 over inferior opponents than Biden
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #63 on: August 03, 2019, 09:49:36 AM »

I know its hard to believe to GoPers and blue avatars that OH and IA, Trump overperformed in a can be won by Biden. Makes sense, since Reynolds and DeWine only won their races by 3.5 over inferior opponents than Biden

They cannot recognize a failed Presidency when it is obviously so. 
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #64 on: August 03, 2019, 05:01:52 PM »

I know its hard to believe to GoPers and blue avatars that OH and IA, Trump overperformed in a can be won by Biden. Makes sense, since Reynolds and DeWine only won their races by 3.5 over inferior opponents than Biden

They cannot recognize a failed Presidency when it is obviously so. 

Once Ohio falls, FL too can fall
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #65 on: August 12, 2019, 04:29:18 PM »

I think that this poll is probably more friendly towards Democrats than Ohio will ultimately be, but I do want to note that Trump's approval in Ohio in the midterms was likely not +7.  After the 2016 elections, FOX decided to switch to an enhanced version, called voter analysis.  It shows his midterm approval at -2 and his favorability at +2, which seems a little more likely to me.

Net approval at -2 in Ohio suggests that Ohio will be very close with Trump against a reasonably competent Democrat. If Ohio is tied, then the Democrat is winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and probably Iowa as well...

Most of us are ignoring favorability unless it involves a non-swing state.

Ohio is somewhere between 295 and 375 electoral votes for the Democrat, so it is a must win for the Republican and the kill for a Democrat. At this point I cannot easily distinguish Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio, all big chunks of electoral vote that I see likely to vote together one way or the other.

If Ohio has gone from giving Trump an 8-point edge to being a tossup in the general election, then the Trump team has its work cut out for 2020.     
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #66 on: August 13, 2019, 06:57:52 PM »

I know its hard to believe to GoPers and blue avatars that OH and IA, Trump overperformed in a can be won by Biden. Makes sense, since Reynolds and DeWine only won their races by 3.5 over inferior opponents than Biden

They cannot recognize a failed Presidency when it is obviously so. 

Once Ohio falls, FL too can fall

If the Democrat won Ohio they already won Florida.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #67 on: August 28, 2019, 06:18:41 PM »

I agree with Quinnipiac actually. Democrats will win Ohio if they win the popular vote by 16 points, and it will be a swing state if they win the popular vote by 10-12 points.

In addition, Democrats will likely sweep all 50 states if they win the popular vote by 50 points.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #68 on: August 28, 2019, 07:16:53 PM »

If Biden is the nominee, unlike SN who is rooting for Warren, just like GOP wanted McGinty instead of Sestak, Biden will win OH by 3
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VAR
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« Reply #69 on: November 11, 2020, 07:21:04 AM »

Once a LOL 'pollster', always a LOL 'pollster'.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #70 on: November 11, 2020, 12:10:36 PM »

Quinnipiac is an embarrassment and should not be taken seriously.

Huh Huh Huh

Their polling has been pretty reliable, statistically speaking.

HAHAHAHA. Yeah, Quinnipiac, "pretty reliable". Nothing could be further from the truth. They were NEVER reliable, they had massive screw-ups in '14, '16, and '18. Only in 2020 is it so excruciatingly obvious that they're not only a bad pollster, they are the absolute worst.

Oh man, Bruce Joel, and the one sad pathetic person who recommended it who had a constant hate boner for me months ago, were so confident they were right and I was wrong.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #71 on: December 18, 2020, 11:55:19 PM »

Quinnipiac is an embarrassment and should not be taken seriously.

Huh Huh Huh

Their polling has been pretty reliable, statistically speaking.

HAHAHAHA. Yeah, Quinnipiac, "pretty reliable". Nothing could be further from the truth. They were NEVER reliable, they had massive screw-ups in '14, '16, and '18. Only in 2020 is it so excruciatingly obvious that they're not only a bad pollster, they are the absolute worst.

Oh man, Bruce Joel, and the one sad pathetic person who recommended it who had a constant hate boner for me months ago, were so confident they were right and I was wrong.

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