OH-Quinnipiac: Biden +8, other match ups competitive
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  OH-Quinnipiac: Biden +8, other match ups competitive
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Biden +8, other match ups competitive  (Read 11412 times)
Co-Chair Bagel23
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« Reply #25 on: July 25, 2019, 09:37:23 AM »

Has this poll been adjusted for turnout? Must be why Biden is so high and Warren Harris are so low. Only reason.

It's RV, not LV, which is of course less accurate. Also, I'm not sure that Biden would generate the highest turnout if this was the implication of your post. I'm actually worried about excitement with Biden. Just look at his speeches; the dude isn't creating that much enthusiasm.

Almost every poll released so far has had Biden doing signifigently better in the GE than other candidates. In this factor, the poll is not an outlier.

Look, under the right circumstances with really good candidates, we could flip Ohio, there is still a shot that it happens, but 8 points? Come on, everyone knows now that is just ridiculous.
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History505
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« Reply #26 on: July 25, 2019, 09:46:20 AM »

Thanks for the laugh Quinnipiac.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #27 on: July 25, 2019, 09:51:26 AM »

Has this poll been adjusted for turnout? Must be why Biden is so high and Warren Harris are so low. Only reason.

It's RV, not LV, which is of course less accurate. Also, I'm not sure that Biden would generate the highest turnout if this was the implication of your post. I'm actually worried about excitement with Biden. Just look at his speeches; the dude isn't creating that much enthusiasm.

Almost every poll released so far has had Biden doing signifigently better in the GE than other candidates. In this factor, the poll is not an outlier.

Look, under the right circumstances with really good candidates, we could flip Ohio, there is still a shot that it happens, but 8 points? Come on, everyone knows now that is just ridiculous.

What I said was that Biden overpreforming the rest of the field by a signifigent margin isnt an outlier when looking at major polling, not that the poll was correct or even accurate.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #28 on: July 25, 2019, 09:51:46 AM »


LOL. Because you are still giving some credibility to Quinnipiac polls ?! So Trump is at -8 nationally but at -9 in a state he won by 8 in 2016. If you really believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you.

According to 538, which has the most accurate averages, he's at -10.5% nationally.
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Matty
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« Reply #29 on: July 25, 2019, 09:59:50 AM »


LOL. Because you are still giving some credibility to Quinnipiac polls ?! So Trump is at -8 nationally but at -9 in a state he won by 8 in 2016. If you really believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you.

According to 538, which has the most accurate averages, he's at -10.5% nationally.

Among registered voters, he is at -9.3 nationally

The bigger indictment of this poll is that it doesn’t jive at all with 2018 results in Ohio.

Ohio can definitely be tighter than 2016, that may even be likely, but a 17 point swing? Give me a break!
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #30 on: July 25, 2019, 10:31:11 AM »

Governor Richard Cordray (D) fully agrees with this poll.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #31 on: July 25, 2019, 10:44:32 AM »

Junk. We're not winning Ohio people, how many times do we have to say this?
"Why pay attention to polls that don't fit my narrative?"

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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #32 on: July 25, 2019, 10:46:28 AM »

Obviously this is ridiculously D-friendly, but there’s really not much evidence (if at all) to suggest that Ohio is less likely to flip than Iowa or that it will even vote to the right of Iowa (which it didn’t in 2016). Reading this forum you’d think OH was some titanium red R+15 state and IA still a pure Tossup/D+1 state. At least Democrats still have a lot of room for growth in urban/suburban Ohio (where Clinton underperformed badly, especially compared to other Midwestern states) even if the rural areas keep trending Republican. Of course they’re unlikely to win it back in 2020, but it’s easier to envision a Democratic/Biden path to victory here in a wave than in IA, where Democrats are extremely reliant on a decent showing in the rural parts of the state.
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Frenchrepublican
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« Reply #33 on: July 25, 2019, 10:56:18 AM »


LOL. Because you are still giving some credibility to Quinnipiac polls ?! So Trump is at -8 nationally but at -9 in a state he won by 8 in 2016. If you really believe this poll I have a bridge to sell you.

Ohio has clearly drifted away from Trump faster than the nation if you look at Morning Consult over the past year. There is no misalignment here. Things change quickly. Ohio is still struggling several years into this great economy.

The problem with this theory that Trump has lost a lot of support in the Midwest is that you would expect a rebound of Trump in the Sunbelt, but it has not happened either, I mean Quinnipiac has Trump losing by four in TX
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Gass3268
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« Reply #34 on: July 25, 2019, 11:15:48 AM »

All this poll tells is that as of right now, Biden would have a shot to win Ohio against Trump. The rest would struggle.
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cvparty
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« Reply #35 on: July 25, 2019, 11:33:51 AM »

This poll has trump up 11 with non-college educated, down 5 with college educated, yet is losing by 8?

That makes no sense


Anyway, trump’s approval rating was 52% in ohio’s 2018 exit poll.

Guys, I really think we have to start considering q-pac has some sort of issue.
the poll breaks down education by whites only, so it makes perfect sense

also, most of the democratic field is tied or slightly trailing trump, which makes sense if he’s around -9 nationally. biden overperforms significantly but we all know that won’t hold if he does happen to win the nomination
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #36 on: July 25, 2019, 11:59:52 AM »

Obviously this is ridiculously D-friendly, but there’s really not much evidence (if at all) to suggest that Ohio is less likely to flip than Iowa or that it will even vote to the right of Iowa (which it didn’t in 2016). Reading this forum you’d think OH was some titanium red R+15 state and IA still a pure Tossup/D+1 state. At least Democrats still have a lot of room for growth in urban/suburban Ohio (where Clinton underperformed badly, especially compared to other Midwestern states) even if the rural areas keep trending Republican. Of course they’re unlikely to win it back in 2020, but it’s easier to envision a Democratic/Biden path to victory here in a wave than in IA, where Democrats are extremely reliant on a decent showing in the rural parts of the state.

The media narrative is that the 2020 Presidential election will be close, as was 2016. After all, one expects the re-election bid of an incumbent President to have a result similar to the  election in which he was elected. Five states voted differently between 1992 and 1996; three states voted differently between 2000 and 2004; two states and one Congressional district voted differently in 2012 than in 2008. The states that shifted were close in the first election. Go back in time to the 1980s and you will find that five states swung (from Carter to Reagan) and to the 1950s (when five states switched sides in Eisenhower-vs-Stevenson elections).

The media have a vested interest in keeping politics look like a real contest, as if it were a sporting match. Yeah, sure, some football team is down 24-3 at the half, but if everything goes right there might still be an upset win for the underdog...  

Every Presidency has its problems, but the successful ones solve those problems gracefully and decisively; some, like that of George W Bush, ride a tide until the tide breaks. The catastrophic failures either bring on calamities or face calamities with a bungled response (Hoover) or face a changing electorate not to the President's favor.

I do not have a stake in media coverage. I am at most a hobbyist as an analysis of trends leading to the next election. I see a chaotic Presidency and demographic trends in the electorate, including electoral behavior of the new voters who supplant older voters dying off, and I see nothing but political inertia favoring President Trump. Political inertia favored Bill Clinton, George W Bush, and Barack Obama. If an incumbent President does not mess up badly, then if he is at all competent as a campaigner (Trump was adequately competent in 2016!), then he wins re-election.

It is my position that Trump will gain nothing that he lost in 2016, that he will do badly in enough medium-to-large states (Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin) to lose them (and with them minimally the Presidential election of 2020). and that he has more of a chance of losing Arizona and Iowa than he has of winning them. Florida (as it usually is), Georgia, North Carolina, and Ohio will be very close, as will be the wayward Congressional districts ME-02 and NE-02 which together comprise 80 electoral votes, and I cannot distinguish them. Of the four states in that list I can see Trump winning three, four, or none -- it looks that close to me. But the difference is between about 295 and 375 electoral votes. Texas is on the fringe of contest, and it straddles 400 electoral votes.

I see President Trump taking identity politics to its logical conclusion -- and finally its failure. The logical trend of any fad is its dissolution into irrelevance and rejection. Service to constituents used to matter greatly, and it can again; Donald Trump is the antithesis of service.    
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One Term Floridian
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« Reply #37 on: July 25, 2019, 12:29:04 PM »

All this poll tells is that as of right now, Biden would have a shot to win Ohio against Trump. The rest would struggle.

That’s literally the only thing we should reasonably interpret from this poll
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Matty
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« Reply #38 on: July 25, 2019, 12:47:34 PM »

Nate Cohn ain’t buying this

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brucejoel99
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« Reply #39 on: July 25, 2019, 01:07:35 PM »

These numbers look really good considering it's Ohio, considering everybody has seemingly written it off as deep red forever now. Not only is Biden up by 8, but all of the other candidates are just -1 or tied, well within the margin of error. If Ohio's even competitive, that's good.

Obvious warnings about it being a single early poll apply, but still, I'll take any good signs that I can get.
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andjey
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« Reply #40 on: July 25, 2019, 01:08:42 PM »

If Biden will be Democratic nominee, he will win Ohio by 2-5%
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #41 on: July 25, 2019, 01:21:06 PM »

I’m sorry this poll is bullsh**t. Let’s add this one to favorites and revisit it when the results roll in next year
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President Johnson
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« Reply #42 on: July 25, 2019, 01:21:58 PM »
« Edited: July 25, 2019, 03:08:09 PM by President Johnson »

JOSEPH!!!

Even though an eight point lead seems way too much, it again shows Uncle Joe is the strongest general election candidate. I think Ohio is tilt/lean Republican with Biden and likely Republican with the others. And it's satisfying to see Saint Bernard not doing better than Kamala, Mayor Pete and Liz Warren.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #43 on: July 25, 2019, 01:24:04 PM »

Not one cent should be spent in Ohio. There is no Senate race and there is no way the Ohio deplorables are breaking from Trump. Some dude who ran a weak campaign got 47% against Brown in a bad year for Republicans in the Midwest. It ain't happening.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #44 on: July 25, 2019, 01:41:56 PM »

Not one cent should be spent in Ohio. There is no Senate race and there is no way the Ohio deplorables are breaking from Trump. Some dude who ran a weak campaign got 47% against Brown in a bad year for Republicans in the Midwest. It ain't happening.

Democrats actually have a shot at the State Supreme Court after winning a couple seats in 2018. That could help prevent future gerrymandering in the state.
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SN2903
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« Reply #45 on: July 25, 2019, 02:05:31 PM »

Nah. Not buying. He may be underwater in Ohio. But its probably Trump+3 at this point.
I think Trump is more like +5-6 in Ohio right now. Not as much as 2016 but still a solid lead.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #46 on: July 25, 2019, 02:14:54 PM »

Nah. Not buying. He may be underwater in Ohio. But its probably Trump+3 at this point.
I think Trump is more like +5-6 in Ohio right now. Not as much as 2016 but still a solid lead.


QU was the worst pollster in OH in 2016, having Strickland and Hillary ahead most of the election. Dems need Va and WI, but Biden can win OH
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #47 on: July 25, 2019, 04:14:08 PM »

There will be House seats that could be won that Democrats did not win in 2018. If Trump is toxic, then a seat or two in Ohio might switch over from R to D.
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Insomnian
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« Reply #48 on: July 25, 2019, 04:16:37 PM »

It's a warning sign for Democrats if most of the candidates are tied in a poll that has Trump's approval down 9 points, which is roughly where 538 places Trump's overall national approval rating.

A Democrat who ties Trump in the popular vote...probably loses. It's a close enough election where I think Biden is the only candidate favored against Trump.
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The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow
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« Reply #49 on: July 25, 2019, 05:38:20 PM »

I certainly believe that Biden would be far and away the strongest general election candidate in OH, but he certainly is not winning the state by 8% and very likely not winning at all, even if he could close the gap more effectively than someone like Sanders or Warren.
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