UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[cp]

Johnson loses second and critical vote 308 to 322

Thank the gods

[jaichind]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

[jaichind]

Johnson's speech does not speak of an election.  I guess he will try to go for a technical extension and try to get the deal pass and done shortly after end of Oct.

[jaichind]

Betfair now has meaningful vote passing sometime in 2019 down to 40% or so... it was something like 47% earlier today.

[cp]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen. He also doesn't have control over the EU's response to the Burt-Benn Act mandated extension request. Statutorily, Johnson sent a letter asking for an extension to January 31, 2020. If the EU accepts this, an election is viable. If it counteroffers something shorter, an election becomes much more difficult to organize with the time remaining.

As it stands, it seems Johnson will lobby the EU for a shorter extension so he can shanghai the opposition into voting his deal through (on his timetable), lest they risk a no-deal crash out at the end of the shortened extension date. What the EU will do in this position is very uncertain. They want to be rid of this wretched farce, but they also don't want to interject themselves into UK politics any more than they have to. (There also might be a rump of those who hope an election might bring a remainer government to power, but I wouldn't put too much faith on this).

Bottom line: Remain just barely lives to fight another day.

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

His mouthpiece Cummings "claimed" that earlier today and the likes of Laura K and Peston reliably stenographed for him as they always do.

From the vote it seems this latest scare tactic may have rebounded. Again.

[jaichind]

Johnson's behavior seems to be driven by his fear that his large poll lead will disappear if he misses the 10/31 deadline.  I guess what he is trying to do is to over-advertisement every step where he is being blocked from getting a deal done and executed by 10/31 so when 11/1 comes around he will still have his large poll lead.  I think polling later this week will sort of show if his worries have merit. 

[CumbrianLefty]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen. He also doesn't have control over the EU's response to the Burt-Benn Act mandated extension request. Statutorily, Johnson sent a letter asking for an extension to January 31, 2020. If the EU accepts this, an election is viable. If it counteroffers something shorter, an election becomes much more difficult to organize with the time remaining.

As it stands, it seems Johnson will lobby the EU for a shorter extension so he can shanghai the opposition into voting his deal through (on his timetable), lest they risk a no-deal crash out at the end of the shortened extension date. What the EU will do in this position is very uncertain. They want to be rid of this wretched farce, but they also don't want to interject themselves into UK politics any more than they have to. (There also might be a rump of those who hope an election might bring a remainer government to power, but I wouldn't put too much faith on this).

Bottom line: Remain just barely lives to fight another day.

Johnson may "lobby" for a shorter extension, but Jan 31 is the date mentioned in his letter and it is very likely the EU will stick to that (indeed, they *could* in theory offer a longer one too, but I don't expect that to happen either)

And as was indeed the case with May's extension which is about to end, we could still actually leave the EU at the end of December or (less likely) November if things are wrapped up by then.

[Silent Hunter]

Tusk has said he's recommending a 31 January 2020 extension and will do the approval by written procedure.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Tusk has said he's recommending a 31 January 2020 extension and will do the approval by written procedure.

hahahahaha, amazing

Seriously though, Parliament needs time to properly scrutinize this deal, and I'm glad they are taking it whether BoJo likes it or not. Even now, the process still matters.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen.

BoJO: Oh boy, another crucial vote is coming.
House: *inflicts another crucial defeat on the PM*
BoJo: Well, damn. I'm pulling the agreement and asking for an election instead. Now, can you vote with me on dissolving the parliament?
House: Nope.
BoJo: WTF is this? A Groundhog Day? I want to wake up!
House: Nope.

[Omega21]

Johnson claims that if he is defeated on the timetable vote he will pull the agreement and ask for an election.

I don't doubt he would do that, but it's WAY more complicated. He doesn't have the ability to call an election without a good deal of the opposition wishing it to happen.

BoJO: Oh boy, another crucial vote is coming.
House: *inflicts another crucial defeat on the PM*
BoJo: Well, damn. I'm pulling the agreement and asking for an election instead. Now, can you vote with me on dissolving the parliament?
House: Nope.
BoJo: WTF is this? A Groundhog Day? I want to wake up!
House: Nope.

Honestly, not being able to call an election is really, really dumb.

What were the people passing the Election law thinking... Probably something along the lines "How can we make parliament as useless and inefficient as possible"

[CumbrianLefty]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

[Omega21]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

[jaichind]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The LAB reason for not having an election ASAP is that they want to ensure that there is a not a No Deal Brexit.  The real reason is they will get creamed in a snap poll.  Of course you can argue that even after the Johnson deal is passed and UK leaves the EU, there is still a chance that future talks with the EU on Free Trade Pact could lead to a No Deal Brexit a year or two down the line so in theory LAB can insist on no election until 2021 or even 2022 as long as they are well behind in the polls.

[Antonio the Sixth]

If BoJo really wanted an election, he could do something very simple: resign. Either the Rebel Alliance can form an alternative government, in which case the case for elections falls apart since a governing majority does in fact exist, or they can't, and then there will be elections.

The FTPA is not at fault here, tactical scheming on both sides is.

[Blair]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The govt have a majority for their domestic legislation & have passed non Brexit bills.

[Omega21]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The govt have a majority for their domestic legislation & have passed non Brexit bills.

Doesn't matter. If they are being denied bills they are proposing, they should have the right to call an election.

If it takes 50+% of votes to pass a no-confidence vote, why wouldn't their 50% be enough to call a new election?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Giving the executive control over the electoral calendar is actually an awful and blatantly undemocratic idea. It's in the same category of terrible ideas as letting incumbents draw their own district lines. The FTPA was obviously not perfect (5-year terms are unacceptably long), but my opinion of it has actually improved a lot with this current crisis. It's working exactly as it should, preventing a power-hungry PM from bullying Parliament into submission and opportunistically exploiting the tides of public opinion to his advantage.

[Blair]

Lots of people have long thought the PM being able to simply call an election at the time of their own choosing handed them an unfair inbuilt advantage, and so supported fixed terms.

The principle seems to work well in other countries after all, the problems are with our actual act that was passed (and also tbf that nobody foresaw the present state of affairs actually occurring)

The act is really broken... His Govt. does not even have a majority and I don't see how forcing someone to continue governing with a minority is normal in any way...

British politics has turned into the Government proposing something and then having it rejected over and over again.

In normal countries being the Govt. means you have the means to pass what you are working on, not just spinning around in a political circus which is the House of Commons.

The govt have a majority for their domestic legislation & have passed non Brexit bills.

Doesn't matter. If they are being denied bills they are proposing, they should have the right to call an election.

If it takes 50+% of votes to pass a no-confidence vote, why wouldn't their 50% be enough to call a new election?

But they’re not are they? They won the second reading of their Brexit deal...

And besides you can trigger an election with 50%; can either repeal the fix terms parliament act or pass a one line bill, or collapse their own govt in a no confidence vote.

They’ve had a month to try all three....

[CumbrianLefty]

Repealing the FTPA - certainly in its present form - would probably get a majority of MPs now.

But any such bill would take more than a day to pass, and could indeed be amended. Which would put any remaining chance of a 2019 GE to bed.

I get the impression that despite the current positioning, both sides would be *happier* with an early 2020 poll in any case - if so the question is how to finesse that outcome.

[The Free North]

Govt to table a motion for general election on Monday

SNP already said they wont back it

[jaichind]

Govt to table a motion for general election on Monday

SNP already said they wont back it

What is the SNP reason?  I thought they wanted an election ?

[brucejoel99]

Govt to table a motion for general election on Monday

SNP already said they wont back it

What is the SNP reason?  I thought they wanted an election ?

They (as does the entirety of the Opposition) want the opportunity to fully scrutinize the WA bill. With an election, said scrutiny would prematurely end with Parliament's dissolution in approximately 2 weeks' time.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Yeah, there shouldn't be an election called until a deal is ratified.