UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Silent Hunter]

The numbers would be very tight, and as of writing I think it would probably fail to pass, but that's not the only dynamic at work. There will be multiple opportunities to amend the Withdrawal Act, by the Commons and the Lords, any one of which could produce an amendment that one or another side of the debate find intolerable. An amendment for permanent UK-wide customs union failed only by 2 votes back in April.

Indeed - and some of those who voted against it then arguably only did so as they were in government.

[CumbrianLefty]

https://twitter.com/JamesMelville/status/1185605845440180231?s=19

Very sceptical of this; there’s 20 anti 2nd ref labour (some may abstain) and still not enough second referendum supporters among the ex Tories.

The numbers would be very tight, and as of writing I think it would probably fail to pass, but that's not the only dynamic at work. There will be multiple opportunities to amend the Withdrawal Act, by the Commons and the Lords, any one of which could produce an amendment that one or another side of the debate find intolerable. An amendment for permanent UK-wide customs union failed only by 2 votes back in April.

There's also the not insignificant matter of the actual confidence of the house. If the DUP voted against the government in a VONC there is no way there would be enough non-Tory (or ex-Tory Independents) votes to avoid a government defeat. Provided the EU granted an extension through to January as requested* there would be an election *after* the deal had passed but *before* it took effect and the UK was no longer a member of the EU.

*There's a non-zero chance the EU will provide a 'counter offer' of an earlier date, which would complicate matters quite a bit. That said, I think the EU will do as little as possible to interject themselves further into the UK's domestic political melodrama, and so will opt for the least controversial step - to grant the extension request as written.

Not impossible they might offer a longer one, despite the opposition from the likes of Macron - not least as it could be framed as "this is the chance to sort your s*** out once and for all"

[Blair]

Given my near breakdown on friday as I watched the votes slip away (it's gonna pass folks- thanks to both Ivan Lewis & John Woodcock being pissed off at Labour over sexual harassment & ex-tory MPs voting like tory MPs) I'm just praying that the WAB will be amended heavily to ensure A.) Parliament has complete control over the next round & I mean legally tight like the Benn Act B.) Sit on some sort of Customs Union.

But god knows how you actually go about making this stuff work legally- it's easy to get a narrow majority for the idea of this Brexit... but not so easy once you start amending.
 

[CumbrianLefty]

You mean its actually Labour's fault that both Lewis and Woodcock were credibly accused of sexual harassment? The party machinery can be blamed for much, but that - not really.

(what happened to the "fully independent" investigation that the latter promised, btw?)

[Blair]

You mean its actually Labour's fault that both Lewis and Woodcock were credibly accused of sexual harassment? The party machinery can be blamed for much, but that - not really.

(what happened to the "fully independent" investigation that the latter promised, btw?)

You're being a bit too eager if you think I was in anyway defending them, or if I was somehow blaming LOTO for them.

Was merely telling people the insane dynamics at play.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbf that wasn't clear from the previous post

There's all sorts of this stuff going on with all "sides" at the minute. When the government of the day has a big majority it doesn't matter so much, but right now.......

[Blair]

Tbf that wasn't clear from the previous post

There's all sorts of this stuff going on with all "sides" at the minute. When the government of the day has a big majority it doesn't matter so much, but right now.......

I don’t want to get sued for libel but yes as seen with the DUP this week will be about the mother of all egos massaging

[jaichind]

So the government today want another meaningful vote for the Johnson deal.  So it will be up to Speaker Bercow to allow this to come to a vote.  A Goldman Sachs report says that there is a 60% chance that such a deal will be passed within the next 2 days.  GBP rallies on that report.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Breaking: Bercow refuses to allow meaningful vote on Brexit deal today.

[brucejoel99]

Breaking: Bercow refuses to allow meaningful vote on Brexit deal today.

Good. Boris had a chance on Saturday & tried to play a partisan game instead of acting reasonably.

[CumbrianLefty]

Hard to argue with his reasoning tbh.

Another stunt from "MASSIVE BRAIN" Cummings gone wrong?

[OSR stands with Israel]

I hope the EU rejects any extension so this bill then will pass.

[brucejoel99]

I hope the EU rejects any extension so this bill then will pass.

The EU won't make its decision until they see whether or not the WA bill passes. But be grateful because, if anything, the Letwin Amendment made it more likely that the bill will pass as it stands*, as now the Tory & Labour rebels aren't worrying about the immediate threat of no-deal.

*And the idea of attaching a customs union to it is being resisted in Westminster.

[Silent Hunter]

There's no guarantee it will pass the Commons before 31 October... and the Lords will have their say too.

[brucejoel99]

There's no guarantee it will pass the Commons before 31 October... and the Lords will have their say too.

Rees-Mogg is attempting to get the WA Bill done & dusted in 3 days, & is delaying the Queen's Speech vote to do so, so while not a guarantee, it definitely looks more likely than not.

[CumbrianLefty]

No guarantee that MPs will vote for such a ridiculously restrictive timetable.

It also has to pass not just through the EU but the devolved assemblies, reportedly.

[PSOL]

In other news, legal action is being taken on stopping forced labor-derived cotton from Uzbekistan   

[brucejoel99]

No guarantee that MPs will vote for such a ridiculously restrictive timetable.

It also has to pass not just through the EU but the devolved assemblies, reportedly.

Yeah, but the British government is allowed to just ignore them if it wants to, in the same fashion that it could just vote to abolish them tomorrow if they wanted to. Of course, they've historically been reluctant to, but this has changed with Brexit because the SNP are clear that they'll never consent.

[jaichind]

Voting in progress in Johnson schedule pass his plan.  I suspect it will not pass

[jaichind]

Ah .. this vote is for the general principle of the bill and nos the schedule.  This one is more likely to pass but not the critical one.

[jaichind]

Johnson wins first and non-critical vote 329 vs 299 ... Johnson finally wins a vote

[jaichind]

Now they will vote on the timeline which is harder for Johnson to win

[jaichind]

If seems that DUP voted against the first motion.  If so then this result is a very good result for Johnson and bodes well on the second and critical vote on the schedule.

[jaichind]

GBP dropping on signs that DUP voted against Johnson on the second and critical vote.

[jaichind]

Johnson loses second and critical vote 308 to 322