UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[brucejoel99]

Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

Yeah, she has been bullied by anti-Semites in her CLP pretty much non-stop over a period of years.

She been using the fact she was Jewish to deflect any critizism.

I'd be interested to see any legitimate evidence you've seen that has led you to reach the conclusion that this is the case.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now there are two: "Corbyn is the second coming of Christ" and "About to be deselected".

Eh, long as the MP is white and (especially) male that doesn't seem to be a massive risk; Godsiff is the only exception in terms of failed-triggers so far...

Quite a few of us in this thread are or (raises hand) have been Labour members, so we at least all know what I refer to when I note that there is a certain culture than permeates a lot of local Labour parties and party meetings, and that it comes mostly from union/wider 'left culture' circles. No faction is exactly immune from this either, so while presently you mostly see its aggressive manifestation in association with the Left, this is mostly a reflection of its present incumbency.

[Kingpoleon]

Why has Jeremy Corbyn become so unpopular in the last few years despite obviously having the best platform?

Perhaps because a lot of Brits think his platform is, understandably, trash? Also, he's just really unlikeable.

Neither of these things are actually correct - Labour's policies under JC often poll well in particular.

Yes - he might win elections if he tried to lead Labour instead of trying to create a personality cult that makes Putin seem as humble as Jimmy Carter.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

But you know, and tying a few different strands of recent discussion in this thread together, I'm not sure if the Labour Party even really exists anymore - not as a coherent political organisation. For sure, you have all of the same elements as before, but do they fuse together to form anything greater than the sum of those parts? If anything the opposite seems true. Relations between the different elements are beyond poor: no one recognises, not really, the authority of anyone else and discipline has broken down across the board. The main power of the Left cadre at the top of the Party is ownership of the Party brand and label. That seems to be about all. Is there even a whip? After all, it isn't that hard to get anyone elected as a Labour Party MP to vote against a Conservative government. The cadre itself is no longer even slightly cohesive. It is also unable to use the threat of Member Power to bring its discipline to the PLP as the collapse of discipline has spread down root and (literally) branch: 'trust the members' no longer seems like a threat (or not a controllable one), and, anyway, is no longer practice. Thus the emergence of obviously stacked long and shortlists for what open selections there are in a manner that Peter Mandelson would have found a little gauche. Meanwhile the PLP is not functioning as an ordered counterweight, MPs, instead, seem to find it increasingly tempting just to do and say whatever comes into their minds. As, of course, does everyone else, from NEC members to Branch officials.

Perhaps Humpty Dumpty can be put back together again. Perhaps not: would any of the people who have acquired for themselves (accidentally for the most part) this liberation from discipline want to surrender to it once more? Perhaps someone will manage to make a smaller and deformed Humpty Dumpty out of all the shards. But for the moment...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Of course, similar comments (if not identical) can easily be made of the Conservative Party. And the LibDems have been little more than a brand with an elected leader since before they were even called that. To say nothing of certain other parties...

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

tbh it's basically cemented my conviction for electoral reform and PR. What I can't stand if the vanity of any faction that proclaims themselves the true voice of Labour voters: maybe it's best if we actually see what the ordinary people feel by having multiple left parties competing rather than the factional intrigue effectively taking the decision out of the hands of normal non-political humans.

[Coldstream]

How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

Soft left - but the soft left covers many things.

There’s the Tribunites who are very left wing economically, probably similar to the Hard Left just not as impatient and maybe have fewer of the Tankie views on foreign policy (think Ange Rayner, Richard Burden, Alex Sobel). Basically a Corbyn-lite arrangement that’s more Pro-EU.

Then there’s the compass group types who are very liberal/internationalist - making them not so much allied to the left but opposed to the Right/New Labour types over their hawkishness, authoritarianism (on national security and police) and *sometimes* harder approach on immigration. Most of them left and became a pressure group working with the Greens and Lib Dem’s but that’s where I’d associate Thornberry and Starmer.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Johnson has managed to reach an agreement with the EU... which is still opposed by the DUP.


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1184764798107602944


https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1184764705384124416


https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1184766856340660229

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1184770653859336192

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.

Not necessarily - the EU could say: Its this Deal or No deal, we will not approve a extension. Then it depends if Remainers call the Bluff.

Well, they would need to say this before Parliament votes on the deal the day after tomorrow, and so far there hasn't been any indication that the EU would definitely rule out another extension. Strictly speaking, the EU only decides on whether to grant extensions if the UK government has requested such an extension.

Therefore it's unlikely that the 27 leaders of the post-Brexit EU could agree on issuing a "Even if you ask for another extension we would turn you down, no matter what reasons** you would provide us for that request. Don't even try" statement within the next 48 hours, because that's a hardline position I have a hard time seeing Germany, Denmark, or Ireland going along with it.

The tactic you've described in your post (this deal or no deal) seems to be the one Johnson's operating with though.


** = granting another extension to hold an election or a second referendum in the UK was always a potential backdoor here

[Middle-aged Europe]

Jean-Claude Juncker has just ruled out another extension, but aside from the fact that he isn't the European Council:


https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184823017442033666

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1184825376603824128

[brucejoel99]

Johnson has managed to reach an agreement with the EU... which is still opposed by the DUP.


https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1184764798107602944


https://twitter.com/JunckerEU/status/1184764705384124416

Can't wait to see this voted down again.

https://twitter.com/skydavidblevins/status/1184766856340660229

Who knew the DUP were the secret heroes of Remain?

Jean-Claude Juncker has just ruled out another extension, but aside from the fact that he isn't the European Council:


https://twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1184823017442033666

Yeah, the EU wouldn't refuse the extension if the deal was voted down. They've been clear at various points that no-deal would never be the choice of the EU.

[cp]

Not surprisingly.... Johnson's deal is not only rejected by the DUP, but also Labour and SNP. Meaning it's pretty much dead on arrival.

Nevertheless, vote in parliament is scheduled for Saturday.

Not necessarily - the EU could say: Its this Deal or No deal, we will not approve a extension. Then it depends if Remainers call the Bluff.

Wouldn't be much of a bluff by the EU. Their rhetoric, their actions for the past 3 1/2 years, and the obvious logic that a no deal crash out is *precisely* the situation they are trying to avoid by endorsing the deal in the first place all point to it being an empty threat.

In any case, as noted above the EU has said on multiple occasions that they would not be the ones to initiate a no deal outcome. The only people who are proposing the idea that the EU would refuse an extension are right-wing Brexit cheer leading publications like the Spectator. Depressingly, a few gullible mainstream journalists have hopped on the bandwagon this afternoon, so the idea has received more attention than it deserves.

[CumbrianLefty]

Macron periodically makes noises about chucking the UK out, but that's just what they are - noises.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Macron periodically makes noises about chucking the UK out, but that's just what they are - noises.

Macron's first reaction to the Johnson deal today also seemed unusually laid back for him, essentially saying something along the lines of "let's wait and see, we've been here before and it didn't work out".

[parochial boy]

Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?

[Middle-aged Europe]

Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?

Personally I have begun to look at it as a "Feel me once, shame on you..."/"The Boy Who Cried Wolf"-kind situation. That is I will believe that Brexit will happen the moment Brexit actually happens.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/rowenamason/status/1184892424147144710

[cp]

Is the deal really that dead? Surely the likes of Kinnock-the-lesser and Caroline Flint in Labout plus some of the Tory-21 give it a reasonable chance?

Indeed, there's a better chance of passage now than there every was for May's attempts. That's mostly due to a tightening up of resolve on the Tory benches, though. There hasn't been an appreciable change of content to affect any of the opposition (Lab/LD/SNP/PC/Ind/ex-Tory Ind/ex-Lab Ind/Green/does CHUK still exist?) votes.

That said, there's enough noise, bluster, bull to slim down the margins to single or low double digits. It could pass by <5 or fail by 20+. No one will know until moments before the Saturday afternoon vote.

Worth noting that everyone whose vote is uncertain will spend the next 40 hours pouring over the legal text of the agreement. All things being equal, doing so has typically raised more fears than it has allayed.

[Pericles]

Johnson practically has no room for error and his deal is a bad deal, there probably is a very slim path but realistically I don't think it's getting passed. Johnson will have a deal to run on in the election and won't have a full on no-deal platform, but tbh this may be a mistake for him too by giving people more of a reason to vote for the Brexit Party and so splitting the Leave vote more.

[RaphaelDLG]

If BoJo's Brexit deal gets passed, what are the odds that the seemingly inevitable late 2019/early 2020 general election gets cancelled?

[DaWN]

If BoJo's Brexit deal gets passed, what are the odds that the seemingly inevitable late 2019/early 2020 general election gets cancelled?

It probably happens either way. The current parliamentary arithmetic is ideal for precisely nobody. The only reason the opposition parties were opposed to the election a few weeks back was because it was a blatant attempt to try and sneak through No Deal - once that is removed as a possibility (either by leaving with a deal or leaving without) then their opposition disappears. Probably.

[CumbrianLefty]

I think there is a chance a GE might now be in early 2020 rather than this year. But its hard to see this parliament running much longer than that in almost any circumstances.