UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)

The whole Brexit debate radicalized because May's deal couldn't get through, convincing a bunch of people that no deal or revoke were the only viable paths. Pass May's deal, and radicalization never takes place. People would probably agree it's a pretty bad deal, but then everybody would move on to the bread-and-butter issues that Labour has an advantage on.

[CumbrianLefty]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

[brucejoel99]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

[Antonio the Sixth]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Even if they reach a deal, I have a hard time seeing how they could avoid an extension. Any deal that comes out of these talks will need to be ratified both by the UK, by all 27 member states, and by the European Parliament. And beyond just ratification, there needs to be legislation passed to materially implement the terms of the deal.

[brucejoel99]

Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Yeah, even if he reaches a deal with the EU, Boris still has to ask for an extension if the Commons doesn't pass said deal by Saturday.

[jaichind]

Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Yeah, even if he reaches a deal with the EU, Boris still has to ask for an extension if the Commons doesn't pass said deal by Saturday.

But I have to imagine that even if something blocks a deal of some sort (EU, DUP, LAB etc etc) Johnson will try to position it : I tried my best to execute on the promise I made about Brexit for end of Oct but the evil <fill in the blank> blatantly blocked it their narrow political benefit. 

[Lord Halifax]

How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

[brucejoel99]

Boris won't have to ask for an extension if a deal is reached, correct? Does the deal have to pass Parliament first?

Yeah, even if he reaches a deal with the EU, Boris still has to ask for an extension if the Commons doesn't pass said deal by Saturday.

But I have to imagine that even if something blocks a deal of some sort (EU, DUP, LAB etc etc) Johnson will try to position it : I tried my best to execute on the promise I made about Brexit for end of Oct but the evil <fill in the blank> blatantly blocked it their narrow political benefit. 

Yeah, that's his expected general election campaign strategy lol

[vileplume]

How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

The soft left, they aren't Corbynite true believers by any stretch of the imagination. If either one wins the leadership if Corbyn fails at the next election they'd move drastically back towards the centre in terms of rhetoric though their policy platform would be fairly similar to what was proposed in the 2017 manifesto (which many on the 'hard left' felt didn't go far enough).

[DaWN]

How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

There used to be a great many factions in Labour along the lines you have said

Now there are two: "Corbyn is the second coming of Christ" and "About to be deselected".

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

Whichever is more convenient for them in internal party politics. So the former.

[Lord Halifax]

How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

The soft left, they aren't Corbynite true believers by any stretch of the imagination. If either one wins the leadership if Corbyn fails at the next election they'd move drastically back towards the centre in terms of rhetoric though their policy platform would be fairly similar to what was proposed in the 2017 manifesto (which many on the 'hard left' felt didn't go far enough).

I assumed they were further right. Angela Rayner is Soft Left and I thought Thornberry and Starmer were a bit to her right.

So the potential leadership candidates are all on the left?

Hard Left: Pidcock, RLB, McDonnell
Soft Left: Rayner, Thornberry, Starmer
Trad Right: none
Brownites: none
Blairites. none

[vileplume]

How many factions are there in Labour? Hard Left, Soft Left, Trad Right, Brownites, Blairites and...?

What faction do Keir Starmer and Emily Thornberry belong to?

The soft left, they aren't Corbynite true believers by any stretch of the imagination. If either one wins the leadership if Corbyn fails at the next election they'd move drastically back towards the centre in terms of rhetoric though their policy platform would be fairly similar to what was proposed in the 2017 manifesto (which many on the 'hard left' felt didn't go far enough).

I assumed they were further right. Angela Rayner is Soft Left and I thought Thornberry and Starmer were a bit to her right.

So the potential leadership candidates are all on the left?

Hard Left: Pidcock, RLB, McDonnell
Soft Left: Rayner, Thornberry, Starmer
Trad Right: none
Brownites: none
Blairites. none

Someone from the right of the party will probably run (similarly to how the left always fielded a candidate even though their chances of winning were then negligible), though they will almost certainly get nowhere. Plus I would probably include Rayner as hard left as she certainly is a Corbynite true believer and a key player in the project despite the fact that she may not be as extreme as someone like Laura Pidcock.

Also the differences between the Blairites and Brownites was almost entirely personality driven and is thus no longer a relevant distinction in this political time. Treating them as one faction named something like the 'modern right' (as opposed to the traditional right) would be in my view more accurate.

[CumbrianLefty]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

This is pure mythology, the EU have SAID THEMSELVES a different deal might be on offer if May's wretched "red lines" were jettisoned.

And it is extremely likely any "deal" Johnson offers will be worse than hers was, anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Exactly. The idea that there's some magical "better deal" right around the corner if you just tell the EU to f**k off is ridiculous. The EU's conditions for a deal are basically set in stone, and no amount of grandstanding from either BoJo or Corbyn is going to change them in any substantial way.

This is pure mythology, the EU have SAID THEMSELVES a different deal might be on offer if May's wretched "red lines" were jettisoned.

And it is extremely likely any "deal" Johnson offers will be worse than hers was, anyway.

The only serious alternative to the May deal would be staying in the customs union, but that proposal has repeatedly failed to garner a majority in parliament. And if you think voting against a BoJo deal (that will be substantively identical to May's deal, let's be clear) is going to make the customs union more likely, I have a bridge to sell you.

[Blair]

The antisemitism is very much a real and systematic issue within Labour. It does predate Corbyn, but he has consistently failed to do anything about it and been dismissive of people who have been sounding the alarm.

Someone like Luciana Berger shouldn't by any right have joined Umunna's centrist vanity project, and almost certainly wouldn't have if her party hadn't treated her like an outcast.

In the inquiry, 0.08% of Labour members were found to have engaged in antisemitic behavior and ejected. 

Obviously all anti-semitic behavior is objectionable and wrong, but are we really to believe that the general British public (or the conservative party for that matter) has less anti-semitism than that and that this is an outrageous scandal?

Because of the way the anti-semitism scandal has been exaggerated by the media, Brits believe when asked by pollsters that something like 35% of labour members are anti-semitic, which is a gross overestimation.

Also, I have yet to find Corbyn or Labour's current leadership do or say anything that is genuinely anti-Semitic, and it seems to a (admittedly not terribly close) observer like its the same smear that goes in America, i.e., if you criticize Israel's government and you support increased autonomy / rights for Palestinians, that means you must of course hate Jews / be a self-hating Jew.

Please ignore this very bad take from someone who has is using hashed talking points from twitter to downplay antisemitism in Labour- an issue currently being investigated by the EHCR- a statutory equalities body.

[Blair]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

Not true; all the polling shows labour is bleeding votes to the Liberal Democrat’s and Greens (50% of our 2017 vote)

And of course Theresa Mays deal was historically hated by Brexit supporters.

Besides Leave voters hate Corbyn/labour because of immigration, trident, etc etc; not because of his view of the regulatory alignment.

[Blair]

Labour MPs have apparently been warned that they won't be allowed to stand as Labour MPs again if they vote for a deal

Oh for f**k's sake.

Labour has the biggest interest in settling the Brexit issue once and for all. If they'd voted for May's deal, chances are they wouldn't be polling at 20% right now.

They aren't polling at 20% in any poll right now.

And their poll drop is significantly down to remain voters having bought the media/#FBPE line that Corbyn "wants Brexit" (regardless of his actual public statements and votes on it since 2016)

LibDems are literally praying Labour votes for any Johnson deal.

(spoiler alert - its not going to happen)

The whole Brexit debate radicalized because May's deal couldn't get through, convincing a bunch of people that no deal or revoke were the only viable paths. Pass May's deal, and radicalization never takes place. People would probably agree it's a pretty bad deal, but then everybody would move on to the bread-and-butter issues that Labour has an advantage on.

This isn’t actually true; like it might have been true in 2017 but the issue had become polarised well before May had MV1- there’s a reason it lost by so much.

It’s certainly true that things have got a lot worse since; but I still don’t see how labour bailing out the Tories over the biggest and most political issue would go down well with either the members or the party’s voters.

[Blair]

May's deal was rubbish, any Johnson deal will be worse. No self-respecting leftist would back them.

May negotiated the best deal that the UK could've gotten, given the limited leverage that a country leaving the EU has. But then again, no self-respecting Brit would've voted to leave in the first place.

Single Market & Customs Union is a much better deal; it’s a pointless form of Brexit but at least upholds a relative amount of stability for business.

[Lord Halifax]

Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

[MaxQue]

Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

[brucejoel99]

Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

Yeah, she has been bullied by anti-Semites in her CLP pretty much non-stop over a period of years.

[Lord Halifax]

Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

because she has criticized Corbyn for enabling the spread of antisemitism within the party.

"Jeremy Corbyn - who spent three decades on the backbenches consorting with, and never confronting, antisemites, Holocaust deniers and terrorists - has attracted the support of too many antisemites."

[MaxQue]

Jewish MP leaves Labour due to antisemitism.

@LouiseEllman
"I have made the truly agonising decision to leave the Labour Party after 55 years. I can no longer advocate voting Labour when it risks Corbyn becoming PM. I will continue to serve the people of Liverpool Riverside as I have had the honour to do since 1997."

"Under Jeremy Corbyn's leadership, antisemitism has become mainstream in the Labour Party. Jewish members have been bullied, abused and driven out. Antisemites have felt comfortable and vile conspiracy theories have been propagated. A party that permits anti-Jewish racism to flourish cannot be called anti-racist."

due to the fact she was about to be deselected.

Yeah, she has been bullied by anti-Semites in her CLP pretty much non-stop over a period of years.

She been using the fact she was Jewish to deflect any critizism.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

One of the branches in Riverside CLP had a 'motion of no confidence'* against her scheduled for Yom Kippur. I would suggest that might be slightly indicative of a problematic atmosphere.

_{*Such motions have no mention in the Rule Book, note.}