UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I think the most likely outcome is that Boris simply chooses to ignore the Benn Act. This is blatantly illegal, of course, but would anything really happen to him?

He could be impeached from office by a vote of parliament, expelled from parliament, and/or have a vote of no confidence passed against his government.

Also, if Johnson (or anyone, really) violated the Benn Act they could face up to 15 years in prison and be liable for civil penalties for any damages incurred as a result of their crime. Civil penalties could also apply to anyone found to have conspired to aid Johnson in his violation of the law - that includes MPs and special advisers working in Downing Street.

Oh I'm aware that there are potential consequences for Johnson's inaction. My concern is, will those consequences materialize?

I suppose were Johnson to ignore the Benn Act, the opposition would call a vote of no confidence. But could they form a government in time? You'd think that the terrible prospect of a 'no deal' Brexit would bring them together, but I have my doubts.

We don't have a Presidential system. The Prime Minister is just an ordinary government employee and therefore has no legal immunity beyond certain protections from prosecution for libel while debating in the Commons chamber. Were Johnson to break the law he would be prosecuted and (potentially) imprisoned the same as any other private citizen would be, and if this happens I think it would be possible that the Queen would be obliged to remove him as PM without a vote of no confidence needed.

[CumbrianLefty]

Wow. Did anyone see Ian Austin?  He's been wanting to get that off his chest for a long time...

His hopefully Danczukian result as an Independent at the coming GE will be highly pleasant.

An exceptionally unpleasant person, according to almost everybody who has dealt with him.

(too toxic for the ChUKkers, say no more)

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

We don't have a Presidential system. The Prime Minister is just an ordinary government employee and therefore has no legal immunity beyond certain protections from prosecution for libel while debating in the Commons chamber. Were Johnson to break the law he would be prosecuted and (potentially) imprisoned the same as any other private citizen would be, and if this happens I think it would be possible that the Queen would be obliged to remove him as PM without a vote of no confidence needed.

It's quite paradoxical, since in many ways the PM is more powerful than the U.S. President, since she or he not only heads the government (executive), but also runs the legislative process via being a party leader. Not always, as we've seen now,

[Gass3268]

311-302. That's five defeats.

Six now

https://twitter.com/alexwickham/status/1171204931405176832?s=20

[Lumine]

He got less votes for an election than he did last time as well.

[Progressive Pessimist]

After he stoods down, we must ask John Bercow to become a moderator on the Atlas.

ORDAH!

[Hollywood]

These Parliamentary debates are more entertaining than anything on television and streaming services right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cEej5VdPEkI

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Just to think past PMs were resigning after losing far more trivial votes. I mean Rosebery stepped down after the government lost a vote in committee on army supply by seven votes.

[LabourJersey]

Just to think past PMs were resigning after losing far more trivial votes. I mean Rosebery stepped down after the government lost a vote in committee on army supply by seven votes.

Yes, but those Prime Ministers had a sense of dignity and a sense of shame that Boris lacks

[DINGO Joe]

After he stoods down, we must ask John Bercow to become a moderator on the Atlas.

No reason to ruin his reputation.

[Coastal Elitist]

I just hope Brexit doesn't ruin my vacation next week. Are the protests over?

[Blair]

Looks like the Hobbit in the speaker's chair would rather retire to the shire than risk losing his seat in the election

I'll give you C- for the effort.

All I'm saying is that Bercow's behavior is perfectly explained when you realize that he's 5 foot 5

Ah a second quip about his height from yourself; and of course a snarky comment won't change the fact that he's been absolutely crucial in allowing MPs to do their jobs, and in helping parliament to stop the complete chaos of no-deal.

It just makes you look like a bit of a tosser really.

[morgieb]

So confirmed wife-beater and racist Geoff Boycott is now a knight. What a farce.

[CumbrianLefty]

So confirmed wife-beater and racist Geoff Boycott is now a knight. What a farce.

Politically he is indeed hard right, but the McKinstry biography is well worth reading re his criminal conviction. Almost everybody who knows him believes he was "set up".

[jaichind]

Different scenarios from ComRes this weekend



It is interesting that it seems Johnson is better off going for No Deal Exit than delay with the obvious risk of him going to jail.  What is also interesting is that BXP->CON vote share is almost as great as No Deal Exit with a Brexit with a deal.  It could be the BXP voters are imagining a deal where EU backs down and not an adjusted version of the May Deal.   

[CumbrianLefty]

Predictive polling like this is ridiculously unreliable. Even if the consequences of a no deal fall short of the worst predictions, the idea the Tories would win a landslide in the aftermath is laughable.

(there is also the very real possibility that even if BoJo refuses point blank to extend A50 - indeed goes to jail for it - it will still happen anyway, one way or another)

And your last point is also correct - any last minute "deal" before Oct 31 will be similar if not the same as May's, the government are making no serious effort to negotiate anything different. Farage and his party will denounce that to the heavens if it happens. As will several Tory MPs.

[Person Man]

FTPA might also complicate things: under the circumstances it would be quite politically legitimate for Labour and the other opposition parties to argue 'yes to an election soon, but not right now'.

We were Brexit. You got Brexit. That's it. Right?

[Person Man]

Different scenarios from ComRes this weekend



It is interesting that it seems Johnson is better off going for No Deal Exit than delay with the obvious risk of him going to jail.  What is also interesting is that BXP->CON vote share is almost as great as No Deal Exit with a Brexit with a deal.  It could be the BXP voters are imagining a deal where EU backs down and not an adjusted version of the May Deal.    

At this rate, the next government will probably be a LD-Lab government as strange as that sounds.  Normally, the could just form a coalition that probably looks like a generic US Democratic Party but not sure how that would happen under Corbyn. Then again, the Republicans have Trump and the Tories have Johnson so we go into this knowing stranger things have happened.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

[Person Man]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

Think they will have enough votes?

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

Think they will have enough votes?

SNP will almost certainly have more MPs than the LDs at the next election.

[Mr. Illini]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

The more we get to hear from Ian Blackford the better.

[Joe Republic]

Either way, it seems pretty obvious that the path back into government for Labour runs through Scotland.

[DaWN]

Lib-Lab won't happen. It will be Lab-SNP.

The less we get to hear from Ian Blackford the better.

FTFY

[Middle-aged Europe]

Scottish appeal court rules prorogation of parliament unlawful:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/sep/11/scottish-judges-rule-boris-johnsons-prorogation-unlawful


Consitutional crisis incoming?