Would Kamala Harris crack 20% in WV?

[IceSpear]

It goes without saying that Trump would crack 70% against her (or perhaps anyone), but Trump cracking 80% seems like a bridge too far even against a black woman from California, so this seems like the most interesting question. What does Atlas think?

[Politician]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state) and he's more likely to break 70% in WY anyway.

The Dem base is more than 20% of the state anyway.

[Ilhan Apologist]

It's not a given that he'll break 70%. Just because WV is trending R doesn't mean it will swing R in every election. Consider Texas, which is trending D, but swung R in 2012.

[IceSpear]

It's not a given that he'll break 70%. Just because WV is trending R doesn't mean it will swing R in every election. Consider Texas, which is trending D, but swung R in 2012.

It's certainly a given against a "coastal elitist" black woman who is not afraid to talk about race.

[Ilhan Apologist]

It's not a given that he'll break 70%. Just because WV is trending R doesn't mean it will swing R in every election. Consider Texas, which is trending D, but swung R in 2012.

It's certainly a given against a "coastal elitist" black woman who is not afraid to talk about race.

Eh, there are some advantages Harris has over Clinton, even among WV voters.

[James Monroe]

It's not a given that he'll break 70%. Just because WV is trending R doesn't mean it will swing R in every election. Consider Texas, which is trending D, but swung R in 2012.

It's certainly a given against a "coastal elitist" black woman who is not afraid to talk about race.

Eh, there are some advantages Harris has over Clinton, even among WV voters.

Kamala is more divisive to the white hicks that populate the state. She's a women of color that has gone criticism for her civil rights stances. West Virginia is a 90% white state that won't feel any sympathy for her message.

[Ilhan Apologist]

It's not a given that he'll break 70%. Just because WV is trending R doesn't mean it will swing R in every election. Consider Texas, which is trending D, but swung R in 2012.

It's certainly a given against a "coastal elitist" black woman who is not afraid to talk about race.

Eh, there are some advantages Harris has over Clinton, even among WV voters.

Kamala is more divisive to the white hicks that populate the state. She's a women of color that has gone criticism for her civil rights stances. West Virginia is a 90% white state that won't feel any sympathy for her message.

My dude. You're white.

[Sumner 1868]

KKKlanmala will be an excellent candidate for WV with her truancy campaign.

[Mr. Smith]

Yeah.

As long as Morgantown is still significant, there's still gonna be some base in WV to talk about.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It depends on how well she does in Mongolia, Jefferson and Kanawha. If she improves on Hillary's numbers in those areas she would probably crack 20. But only if she does that, The hicks in rural west virginia will be incensed by a bi-racial woman who supports slave reparations and busing, especially when our xenophobic idiot President rants about it at his rallies

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It goes without saying that Trump would crack 70% against her (or perhaps anyone), but Trump cracking 80% seems like a bridge too far even against a black woman from California, so this seems like the most interesting question. What does Atlas think?

And Indian!

[morgieb]

Dem base there is still higher than 20% unless Trump wins by 15 points nationwide or something. So yes.

[Technocracy Timmy]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

You're trying to lay out facts and logic to a guy who is adamant that Texas hasn't gotten any bluer.

[IceSpear]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

Yes, he's essentially saying that either:

1) Kamala Harris cannot possibly do worse than Hillary overall

And/or

2) WV is guaranteed to trend D even with a black woman as the Democratic candidate

Both of these are extremely dubious assertions for obvious reasons. I shudder to even consider the percentage of the vote Kamala would get in Mingo County. We'd be approaching banana republic election numbers in Southern WV, except even scarier since they'd be genuine.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

But 68.5% is more of a peak than anything

[Gracile]

I'm going to lean toward yes, because I could see Harris (or any Democratic nominee) improving in places like Jefferson and Monongalia counties. Even if she loses ground in other parts of the state, it is difficult to imagine her dipping below 20% if she can improve in these steadily growing counties that are more demographically favorable on the surface to Democrats (well at least more favorable than the rest of West Virginia).

[Technocracy Timmy]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

But 68.5% is more of a peak than anything

I’m sure a solid chunk of people on here thought 2012 was the R peak in WV. Or 2004. Or 2000.

Trends don’t care about peaks.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

But 68.5% is more of a peak than anything

I’m sure a solid chunk of people on here thought 2012 was the R peak in WV. Or 2004. Or 2000.

Trends don’t care about peaks.

62% is not a peak like 68.5% is , and trends dont go on forever. At some point there is a ceiling and floor.

California trended R in 1976 and trended R massively in 1980 and then trended D in 1984 because GOP hit their peak in 1980 there. In Utah Reagan won by a smaller margin in 84 than 80 cause he peaked there in 80.

[SN2903]

No

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Trump will not break 70% in WV (Or in any state)

Trump got 68.5% in the state with 5% of the state going to third Parties.

Ruling out the possibility of Trump doing 1.5 points better in a rapidly R trending state is dumb as sh*t.

But 68.5% is more of a peak than anything

I’m sure a solid chunk of people on here thought 2012 was the R peak in WV. Or 2004. Or 2000.

Trends don’t care about peaks.

62% is not a peak like 68.5% is , and trends dont go on forever. At some point there is a ceiling and floor.

California trended R in 1976 and trended R massively in 1980 and then trended D in 1984 because GOP hit their peak in 1980 there. In Utah Reagan won by a smaller margin in 84 than 80 cause he peaked there in 80.

The 70’s and 80’s were still a time when both parties could legitimately contest nearly every state on the map at some level or another and voters were far less polarized. That is a bad analogy. There is no reason to expect Democrats prospects in West Virginia to get any better for decades to come. Republicans won’t have hit their max until they are flirting with 80-90%. Look at West Texas if you don’t believe me. Look and how those counties still find ways to swing Republican every election despite the perception that they couldn’t possibly get any more Republican

[Annatar]

The GOP is not even close to the theoretical maximum in WV, since whites in WV are increasingly voting like whites in the deep south, the maximum % of the white vote the GOP could get is 90% in WV, since the state is 92% white and we assume the GOP can get 35% of the non-white vote overall in WV, that would mean the GOP could get 85% or so of the total vote. There is no reason to believe Harris can't drop below 20% in WV.

[Frenchrepublican]

She would almost certainly win at least 25% of the vote. I guess she would win between 25% and 28% of the vote but less than 20% is impossible

[Alben Barkley]

Literally any Democrat would crack 20% at least. It's not DC for Christ's sake; there is still a substantial ancestral Democratic population there that will NEVER vote Republican. Not enough to win a presidential race, but more than enough to keep a Democratic senator in power who was (mostly) running against the record of a historically popular Republican president there when combined with "swing voters."

Honestly, this question is just plain stupid. Even if Kamala is the absolute worst fit the Democrats could run for West Virginia, she would still easily surpass 20%.

[Alben Barkley]

The GOP is not even close to the theoretical maximum in WV, since whites in WV are increasingly voting like whites in the deep south, the maximum % of the white vote the GOP could get is 90% in WV, since the state is 92% white and we assume the GOP can get 35% of the non-white vote overall in WV, that would mean the GOP could get 85% or so of the total vote. There is no reason to believe Harris can't drop below 20% in WV.