GA-SEN 2020 Class III Megathread: She Who Loeffs Last

[Rookie Yinzer]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

It’s unlikely to say the least. Collins has seen a big drop in her approval rate and the chances that Trump loses ME by double digits are much higher than the probability he loses GA. If democrats are flipping the GA seats it means that we are in the midst of democratic tsunami and Collins is already gone in a such scenario. 

This is a dumb take. The state is getting less and less white. It could flip before ME and it does not mean it’s a Tsunami. You are perpetually stuck in 2004.

[Sir Mohamed]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

It’s unlikely to say the least. Collins has seen a big drop in her approval rate and the chances that Trump loses ME by double digits are much higher than the probability he loses GA. If democrats are flipping the GA seats it means that we are in the midst of democratic tsunami and Collins is already gone in a such scenario. 

This is a dumb take. The state is getting less and less white. It could flip before ME and it does not mean it’s a Tsunami. You are perpetually stuck in 2004.

ME-Sen is only more likely to flip if Collins retires. If she runs again, GA will go Dem first.

[Frenchrepublican]

Maine and NC would flip before GA.

GA could absolutely flip before ME.

It’s unlikely to say the least. Collins has seen a big drop in her approval rate and the chances that Trump loses ME by double digits are much higher than the probability he loses GA. If democrats are flipping the GA seats it means that we are in the midst of democratic tsunami and Collins is already gone in a such scenario. 

This is a dumb take. The state is getting less and less white. It could flip before ME and it does not mean it’s a Tsunami. You are perpetually stuck in 2004.

Maybe I’m stuck in 2004, but you you’re already in 2030.
Yeah, GA is becoming more diverse but until proven otherwise GA is still far to the right of Maine (see 2012 Pres / 2014 GOV / 2016 Pres / 2018 GOV).

[Politician]

You're both wrong. Idaho AND Nebraska will flip before Georgia or Maine.

[Zaybay]

This really shouldnt be that hard a question.

One state has Trump at a range of -15 to -25, and the other has him even.

Collins is growing more unpopular, and is even unsure if she even wants to run again in the first place.

Under the most likely scenario, ME flips before GA. It could happen in reverse, but statistically it isnt likely.

[HarrisonL]

Chris Carr, former Isakson CoS and AG

[LiberalDem19]

If Kemp was smart, it would be Deal. But this is also the man who managed to purge himself from the voter rolls. So he'll appoint an idiot like Handel

[HarrisonL]

This really shouldnt be that hard a question.

One state has Trump at a range of -15 to -25, and the other has him even.

Collins is growing more unpopular, and is even unsure if she even wants to run again in the first place.

Under the most likely scenario, ME flips before GA. It could happen in reverse, but statistically it isnt likely.

Hasn't she been fundraising for re-election though?

[Zaybay]

This really shouldnt be that hard a question.

One state has Trump at a range of -15 to -25, and the other has him even.

Collins is growing more unpopular, and is even unsure if she even wants to run again in the first place.

Under the most likely scenario, ME flips before GA. It could happen in reverse, but statistically it isnt likely.

Hasn't she been fundraising for re-election though?

Yes, but thats not a sure sign she runs again. Isakson was fundraising before he retired, as was Tom Udall before he called it quits. The fact that shes unsure says a lot about how safe her race is to begin with.

[Skill and Chance]

If it goes to a runoff, I would expect whichever party lost the presidential election to win.  If both GA senate seats go to runoffs (a reasonably likely outcome), will the runoffs happen on the same day? 

[Nutmeg]

If it goes to a runoff, I would expect whichever party lost the presidential election to win.  If both GA senate seats go to runoffs (a reasonably likely outcome), will the runoffs happen on the same day? 

Yes.

[libertpaulian]

If Kemp appoints some lunatic or dolt like Hice, Broun, or Handel, this seat should be an easy pickup for the Dems.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Kemp appoints some lunatic or dolt like Hice, Broun, or Handel, this seat should be an easy pickup for the Dems.

Since when is Georgia an "easy pickup"?

[libertpaulian]

If Kemp appoints some lunatic or dolt like Hice, Broun, or Handel, this seat should be an easy pickup for the Dems.

Since when is Georgia an "easy pickup"?

I said in the event he appointed someone in the mold of those three.

Handel is an incompetent campaigner.  Broun and Hice are kooks.

[Zaybay]

If Kemp appoints some lunatic or dolt like Hice, Broun, or Handel, this seat should be an easy pickup for the Dems.

Since when is Georgia an "easy pickup"?

I said in the event he appointed someone in the mold of those three.

Handel is an incompetent campaigner.  Broun and Hice are kooks.

Still not an easy pickup.

[Pollster]

Ossof runs.
Under pressure from Republicans to not blow GA-06, Handel runs.
We get a repeat of Ossof v. Handel, just statewide.
Two years later, Handel is defeated for reelection by Lucy McBath.

[Epaminondas]

Ossof runs.
Under pressure from Republicans to not blow GA-06, Handel runs.
We get a repeat of Ossof v. Handel, just statewide.
Two years later, Handel is defeated for reelection by Lucy McBath.

Funny idea. Déjà-vu all over again.

[Tekken_Guy]

Ossof runs.
Under pressure from Republicans to not blow GA-06, Handel runs.
We get a repeat of Ossof v. Handel, just statewide.
Two years later, Handel is defeated for reelection by Lucy McBath.

And in 2028, she faces the same Republican who she beat in GA-06 in 2020.

[Politician]

DNS registrations suggest McBath may enter race:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1169655365090205696

[Rookie Yinzer]

DNS registrations suggest McBath may enter race:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1169655365090205696

Yessssssssssss!!!!!

[Calthrina950]

DNS registrations suggest McBath may enter race:
https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1169655365090205696

McBath might actually be a stronger candidate than Abrams would have been, and certainly stronger than any of the candidates who are running right now. But she will still have a steep hill to climb, and a great many obstacles to overcome. I'm still not convinced that Georgia is ready to vote Democratic for any kind of statewide race in 2020, though it is obviously not impossible. I think the breakthrough year for Democrats will be in either 2022 or 2024.

[ElectionsGuy]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

No it doesn't. Abrams also won GA-06 with an electorate that was less Democratic than 2016. The white voters in that district are done with the GOP. 

In the meantime, McBath is amazing at working suburban audiences, and black turnout will be huge with her on the ticket. She is an exceptional speaker with a powerful personal story. She will also raise a sh-t ton of money. She is the best alternative to Abrams. Meanwhile Tomlinson can work on getting out that South GA vote. And we will all be curbing voter suppression to the best of our abilities.

Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

I'm all in for Tomlinson/McBath 2020.

[Gracile]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

[Frenchrepublican]

Bad decision for McBath if true. She's WAY more likely to win re-election to GA-06 than to win statewide in an open senate seat. Also increases Republican odds in the 6th.

I wouldn't go that far. GA-06 fits the profile of a district that will move towards the Democrats next year. If the Senate/Presidential races are in any way competitive in Georgia next year, the Democratic nominees should provide sufficient coattails for the GA-06 Dem.

At the very least, McBath is definitely one of the better recruits for this race. She could probably come the closest to replicating the Abrams coalition, and her gun control message is also one that could resonate with a lot of voters - both African-Americans as well as some whites in the Atlanta metro. Also, I think if she were to enter other prospective Democrats would not run in deference to her - this is important because the Democrats would need to consolidate around one candidate if they want any chance to win the special on election night.

Yeah, but this message won't resonate outside of the Atlanta metro area and she will get absolutely trounced in small towns