KY-SEN: Amy McGrath in

[Fuzzy Bear]

McConnell is 100% safe, and there's absolutely nothing Democrats can do about it. Every dollar they spend here is wasted.

McConnell is not safe, but Dems should spend their money on AL, AZ, CO, GA, KS, ME and NC

I agree with the above, from a strategic point of view.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Updated prediction: Safe R -> Likely R closer to Safe than Lean.


By percentages : 99% chance McConnell wins -> 95% chance McConnell wins

[Brittain33]

Safe R -> Safe R

[lfromnj]

Yeah the one good thing for R's for losing KY gov is that Mcgrath might actually outfundraise Beto here with none of the downballot effects either(ok maybe KY06 could flip if Trump is losing big nationally too)

[MT Treasurer]

So Beshear beat the least popular Republican governor in the country by 10K votes. Any one of these factors would erase that Democratic lead in this race:

- McGrath's missteps and awful campaign which is pretty clearly far inferior to the campaign Beshear ran
- McGrath's inability to capitalize on the popular Beshear family name
- this being a federal race and not a gubernatorial election
- the fact that this election will be held in a presidential year where weird off-year turnout dynamics (which clearly benefited Democrats this year) won’t be a factor (this also applies to AL-SEN)  
- McConnell being a far more competent candidate who not only clearly understands his state better than Matt Bevin but is also unlikely to be caught asleep at the wheel and tends to run scorched earth campaigns
- McConnell not being Matt Bevin

I’m not changing my rating.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I think McConnell wins 56-43 next year

[Classic Conservative]

I have a feeling that McGrath is going to receive a boat load of donations tonight, which I can’t say I’m mad about.

[Rookie Yinzer]

She's tweeting out delusions about how she is going to replicate Beshear's performance and get rid of Mitch, and she's raising a sh-t ton of money doing it. I hate her. LOL.

[ElectionsGuy]

If Matt Bevin just barely lost, it proves Mitch McConnell is safe.

[TML]

If Matt Bevin just barely lost, it proves Mitch McConnell is safe.

Let's compare:

2014-Sen: R+15.5
2015-Gov: R+8.7
2019-Gov: D+0.4 (a 9.1-point shift)

If we were to apply the 2015-2019 shift to McConnell, he would end up with a margin of R+6.4, which is very close to his 2008 margin of R+5.9. Yes, I agree that McConnell is still favored, but that kind of margin suggests that he could fall if he tried to sleepwalk to victory (so I would rate him likely rather than safe).

[Pericles]

This is still Safe R with McGrath as the Dem candidate. If Matt Jones or Rocky Adkins run instead, there may be a very slim possibility of a Democratic victory and so given it would not be entirely safe it might be Likely R.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If Matt Bevin just barely lost, it proves Mitch McConnell is safe.

No it doesn't, Lunsford ran a competetive campaign in KY, in 2008, in a Prez yr, Trump is a weak Prez just like Dubya, that only got in by winning the EC college,  not popular vote

[ElectionsGuy]

If Matt Bevin just barely lost, it proves Mitch McConnell is safe.

Let's compare:

2014-Sen: R+15.5
2015-Gov: R+8.7
2019-Gov: D+0.4 (a 9.1-point shift)

If we were to apply the 2015-2019 shift to McConnell, he would end up with a margin of R+6.4, which is very close to his 2008 margin of R+5.9. Yes, I agree that McConnell is still favored, but that kind of margin suggests that he could fall if he tried to sleepwalk to victory (so I would rate him likely rather than safe).

That both implies that McGrath (or whoever the Dems nominate) will be as much of an improvement over Grimes that Beshear was over Conway (which is very unlikely) and that there's even a chance McConnell will be caught "sleeping at the wheel" which we know will not happen. If there's one thing you can grant McConnell, it's that he knows how to win elections and he runs a savage campaign every time. So Safe R is still the most reasonable rating IMO.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

McConnell is not safe, its Lean R, but at the moment, but Lunsford ran a very good election,  when he wasnt even backed by the Dems,  in 2008.

[Donerail]

gimme McConnell by ten

[Pollster]

Certainly possible we see other Dems express interest here now.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats:

PLEASE. DO. NOT. INVEST. IN. KENTUCKY.

If you absolutely MUST throw your money into a quixotic race, go for South Carolina.  Demographics are more favorable there than Kentucky, anyhow.

[Xing]

Yes, Bevin actually did lose (just barely), but gubernatorial races are more likely to buck the partisan lean of a state. Not to mention, Beshear was a far better candidate than McGrath is proving to be. Despite getting the gubernatorial race wrong, I remain convinced that this race is Safe R, even if McConnell does underperform Trump by a decent margin.

[Devout Centrist]

Adkins needs to jump in at this point.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Democrats:

PLEASE. DO. NOT. INVEST. IN. KENTUCKY.

If you absolutely MUST throw your money into a quixotic race, go for South Carolina.  Demographics are more favorable there than Kentucky, anyhow.

MS is more favorable to them then SC.

[Gracile]

So it begins...

https://twitter.com/SenGillibrand/status/1191906601101398016

I just hope the DSCC and other national Democratic groups have more sense than to invest in this race.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Thanks to Citizens United, campaign contributions are basically an unlimited resource now, so "diversion of resources" doesn't matter that much. And also, even though McGrath is proving to be a disappointment so far, you can never be too sure about these things. After all, Beto O'Rourke was criticized for diverting money to a "hopeless" senate race in Texas, but he ended up doing way better than people who "should" have gotten the money.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Yes, Bevin actually did lose (just barely), but gubernatorial races are more likely to buck the partisan lean of a state. Not to mention, Beshear was a far better candidate than McGrath is proving to be. Despite getting the gubernatorial race wrong, I remain convinced that this race is Safe R, even if McConnell does underperform Trump by a decent margin.

Also, KY gubernatorial elections are being held off-cycle, which is the factor as well.

[KaiserDave]

Safe R with McGrath, she is running a terrible campaign and couldn't win KY-6 in a Democratic wave. Likely R with Adkins, who is a far more competent candidate who will do much better in eastern Kentucky. However, McConnell is not losing regardless.

[Rookie Yinzer]

After all, Beto O'Rourke was criticized for diverting money to a "hopeless" senate race in Texas, but he ended up doing way better than people who "should" have gotten the money.

Texas is a fast growing state with half a dozen highly populated metropolises. The electorate there is also 41% non-white, with a burgeoning population of college ed white liberals. Not the same thing at all.

They are lobbing money at a poor, 85% white, rural state that abhors national Democrats. McGrath can NOT run away from national issues in this race and will lose no matter what.