2020 PA State Elections Megathread

[ctherainbow]

Also, rebranding this thread as a general 2020 PA state elections megathread, as I don't see one already in existence, and we have a competitive Auditor General race coming up in 2020 as well.

[Badger]

Any possibility than a primary challenge is successful?

Which race?  Daylin Leach could easily be knocked off, yes, the others, I doubt it as things stand today.

But doesn't he have a decent chance of surviving only because his primary Challengers are so many and the splitting the vote? Or is one in particular emerging as the true contender to Leach?

[ctherainbow]

But doesn't he have a decent chance of surviving only because his primary Challengers are so many and the splitting the vote? Or is one in particular emerging as the true contender to Leach?

Yeah, that’s definitely a scenario that could play out!  Now, keep in mind that I’m not a SEPA Dem, so I don’t have my finger right on the pulse of that faction of the party, but overall I know that Leach is widely seen as a liability by the state party at large, and also by many Democratic voters.  I’ll be honest, I think it’s within the realm of possibility that the state party or major factions within it endorse one of Leach’s primary challengers, as we really don’t need to risk a mass refusal to vote if Leach is the general election candidate.  Like you said, with that many primary opponents, Leach could squeak through the pack, but he’s definitely in boiling hot water as it stands.

[Badger]

But doesn't he have a decent chance of surviving only because his primary Challengers are so many and the splitting the vote? Or is one in particular emerging as the true contender to Leach?

Yeah, that’s definitely a scenario that could play out!  Now, keep in mind that I’m not a SEPA Dem, so I don’t have my finger right on the pulse of that faction of the party, but overall I know that Leach is widely seen as a liability by the state party at large, and also by many Democratic voters.  I’ll be honest, I think it’s within the realm of possibility that the state party or major factions within it endorse one of Leach’s primary challengers, as we really don’t need to risk a mass refusal to vote if Leach is the general election candidate.  Like you said, with that many primary opponents, Leach could squeak through the pack, but he’s definitely in boiling hot water as it stands.

I hear you. But doesn't Leach also have the slight advantage that his seat is safely democratic and has no realistic chance of flipping even if he is the nominee?

[ctherainbow]

I hear you. But doesn't Leach also have the slight advantage that his seat is safely democratic and has no realistic chance of flipping even if he is the nominee?

Yeah, he definitely has that advantage!  I would say that there is a small chance of the district flipping if he is the general election nominee; not a huge one, but Roy Moore managed to lose in territory that was about as favorable to him as this district is to Leach, and I can't imagine suburban Pennsylvania Democrats who might not vote for him are going to be more skeptical of sexual harassment/assault claims than Alabama Republicans were.  Even if he is the nominee, he's heavily favored, but I imagine the party would prefer a less problematic nominee.  But we'll have to see!

[Lambsbread]

Boooo post the state representative candidates for the remaining districts! I just want to see my district--even though I know who's running and am volunteering for the Democratic candidate

[ctherainbow]

State Representative Primary Candidates District 51-100:


District 51:

(Fayette/Somerset)

Matthew Dowling(I)

District 52:

(Fayette/Westmoreland)

Harry Cochran
Ryan Warner(I)

District 53:

(Montgomery)

Steven Malagari(I)
Allan Arnott

District 54:

(Allegheny/Westmoreland)

Robert Brooks(I)

District 55:

(Armstrong/Indiana/Westmoreland)

Joseph Petrarca(I)
Jason Silvis

District 56:

(Westmoreland)

George Dunbar(I)

District 57:

Eric Nelson(I)

District 58:

(Westmoreland)

Robert Prah Jr
Eric Davanzo

District 59:

(Somerset/Westmoreland)

Michael Reese(I)

District 60:

(Armstrong/Butler/Indiana)

Jeffrey Pyle(I)

District 61:

(Montgomery)

Laura Hanbidge(I)
Florence Friebel

District 62:

(Indiana)

Dennis Semsick
James Struzzi II(I)

District 63:

(Armstrong/Clarion/Forest)

Donna Oberlander(I)

District 64:

(Butler/Venango)

R. Lee James(I)

District 65:

(Crawford/Forest/Warren)

Kathy Rapp(I)

District 66:

(Indiana/Jefferson)

John Matson Jr
Brian Smith

District 67:

(Cameron/McKean/Potter)

Martin Causer(I)

District 68:

(Bradford/Potter/Tioga)

Clinton Owlett(I)

District 69:

(Bedford/Somerset)

Carl Metzgar(I)

District 70:

(Montgomery)

Matthew Bradford(I)
James Saring

District 71:

(Cambria/Somerset)

James Rigby(I)

District 72:

(Cambria)

Frank Burns(I)
Gerald Carnicella
Howard Terndrup

District 73:

(Cambria/Clearfield)

Thomas Sankey III(I)

District 74:

(Chester)

Dan Williams(I)
Dale Hensel

District 75:

(Clearfield/Elk)

Ryan Grimm
Michael Armanini
Michael Clement
Lisa Labrasca Becker

District 76:

(Centre/Clinton)

Joseph Waltz
Stephanie Borowicz(I)

District 77:

(Centre)

Harry Conklin(I)
Stephen Yetsko

District 78:

(Bedford/Franklin/Fulton)

Jesse Topper(I)

District 79:

(Blair)

Jason Runk
Louis Schmitt Jr(I)

District 80:

(Blair)

James Gregory(I)

District 81:

(Centre/Huntingdon/Mifflin)

Ian Kidd
Richard Irvin(I)

District 82:

(Franklin/Juniata/Mifflin)

Johnathan Hershey(I)

District 83:

(Lycoming)

Airneezer Paige
Jeff Wheeland(I)

District 84:

(Lycoming/Union)

Amanda Waldman
Joseph Hamm
David Hines

District 85:

(Snyder/Union)

David Rowe(I)

District 86:

(Cumberland/Perry)

William Benner III
Jedidiah Nessinger
Perry Stambaugh

District 87:

(Cumberland)

Heather Macdonald
Nicole Miller
Sean Quinlan
William Rothman(I)

District 88:

(Cumberland)

Tara Shakespeare
Sheryl Delozier(I)

District 89:

(Franklin)

Robert Kauffman(I)

District 90:

(Franklin)

Paul Schemel(I)

District 91:

(Adams)

Daniel Moul(I)

District 92:

(Cumberland/York)

Douglas Ross
Dawn Keefer(I)

District 93:

(York)

Paul Jones(I)

District 94:

(York)

Stanley Saylor(I)

District 95:

(York)

Carol Hill-Evans(I)
Kathryn French

District 96:

(Lancaster)

Michael Sturla(I)

District 97:

(Lancaster)

Dana Gulick
Steven Mentzer(I)

District 98:

(Dauphin/Lancaster)

William Troutman Jr
David Hickernell(I)

District 99:

(Lancaster)

Richard Hodge
David Zimmerman(I)

District 100:

(Lancaster)

Bryan Cutler(I)


Key Takeaways Districts 51-100:

- Dems contest only 24/50 of these seats, which are mostly heavily Republican seats; GOP contests 49/50

- Dems seem to have given up on ancestrally union/Dem districts like 51 and 71, which are both uncontested this cycle, and thus GOP locks, while they seem to be pushing harder in areas like Lancaster, York, and Cumberland Counties.  While I don't expect this strategy to pay off in 2020, as many of the York and Lancaster County districts are just too conservative, they are slowly trending left, so maybe it's a good long-term strategy to lay the groundwork for future cycles?

- The best hope for the endangered Democratic reps in Districts 55 and 72 was that their races would be uncontested, but that didn't pan out for either of them.  Expect these races to be nailbiters, and very possibly flips to the GOP

[ctherainbow]

Boooo post the state representative candidates for the remaining districts! I just want to see my district--even though I know who's running and am volunteering for the Democratic candidate

Working on it!  Trying to update this+be the Field Director for one of the State Senate campaigns+do my day job has me like:



Which district/candidate ya volunteering for?  I'm working for Jackie Baker in District 23.   

[Lambsbread]

You rock! I'm volunteering for Rick Hodge in District 99 This is the first time I'll be volunteering for a local campaign--also volunteering for Sarah Hammond for Congress in PA-11!

[wbrocks67]

Can someone break down the special election for me?

[ctherainbow]

You rock! I'm volunteering for Rick Hodge in District 99 This is the first time I'll be volunteering for a local campaign--also volunteering for Sarah Hammond for Congress in PA-11!

Good luck!  That'll be a heavy lift in both those districts, but more power to you!  I'm also working for a Democrat in a very red district, so I'm strugglin along with ya.   

[ctherainbow]

Can someone break down the special election for me?

Sure!  District 190 is an EXTREMELY Democratic North/West Philadelphia district, and features a face-off between Roni Green, a first-time Democrat candidate who was a 38th Ward committee person, and Wanda Logan, a Republican local businesswoman, who is also a perennial candidate for this seat.  Logan has previously run as a Democrat for this seat, in every regular election since 2012, and has lost every single primary, which is likely what caused her to bail out and run for the GOP nomination.  Logan may pull some voters from this district who know her from previous runs or from her business, but this election shouldn't be anywhere near close, and even if she did win, I could see Logan switching back to her old party.  Green should win this one no problem, and I hope, for the sake of the people in this district, that she escapes the legacy of corruption that has tossed out the last two reps from District 190.

[ctherainbow]

State Representative Primary Candidates District 101-150:


District 101:

(Lebanon)

Calvin Clements
Francis Ryan(I)

District 102:

(Lebanon)

Matthew Duval
Russ Diamond(I)

District 103:

(Dauphin)

Patty Kim(I)
Kelvin Maxson

District 104:

(Dauphin/Lebanon)

Patricia Smith
Susan Helm(I)
Travis Stauffer

District 105:

(Dauphin)

Brittney Rodas
Andrew Lewis(I)

District 106:

(Dauphin)

Lindsay Drew
Jonathan Keeler
Thomas Mehaffie III(I)
Robert Jeffries
Mimi Legro
Christopher Lupp

District 107:

(Columbia/Montour/Northumberland)

Kurt Masser(I)

District 108:

(Northumberland/Snyder)

Lynda Schlegel Culver(I)

District 109:

(Columbia)

William Monahan
David Millard(I)

District 110:

(Bradford/Sullivan/Susquehanna)

Tina Pickett(I)

District 111:

(Susquehanna/Wayne)

Jonathan Fritz(I)

District 112:

(Lackawanna)

Kyle Mullins(I)
Mary Noldy

District 113:

(Lackawanna)

Marty Flynn(I)
William Kresge

District 114:

(Lackawanna)

Bridget Kosierowski(I)
James May IV

District 115:

(Monroe)

Maureen Madden(I)
Maria Ridder

District 116:

(Luzerne)

Todd Eachus
Tarah Toohill(I)

District 117:

(Lackawanna/Luzerne/Wyoming)

Karen Boback(I)

District 118:

(Lackawanna/Luzerne)

Michael Carroll(I)
Andrew Holter

District 119:

(Luzerne)

Gerald Mullery(I)
John Chura
Andrew Gegaris Jr

District 120:

(Luzerne)

Joanna Smith
Aaron Kaufer(I)

District 121:

(Luzerne)

Edwin Pashinski(I)

District 122:

(Carbon)

Doyle Heffley(I)

District 123:

(Schuylkill)

Peter Symons Jr
John Leshko
Timothy Twardzik

District 124:

(Berks/Carbon/Schuylkill)

Taylor Picone
Jerome Knowles(I)

District 125:

(Dauphin/Schuylkill)

Hervey Breault II
Theresa Gaffney
Christy Joy
Joseph Kerwin

District 126:

(Berks)

Mark Rozzi(I)
James Oswald

District 127:

(Berks)

Raymond Baker
Cesar Cepeda
Robin Costenbader-Jacobson
Manuel Guzman Jr
Robert Melendez
Vincent Gagliardo Jr
Branden Moyer

District 128:

(Berks/Lancaster)

Mark Gillen(I)

District 129:

(Berks/Lancaster)

Kelly McDonough
James Cox Jr(I)

District 130:

(Berks)

Francis Foley Jr
David Maloney Sr(I)

District 131:

(Lehigh/Montgomery/Northampton)

Kevin Branco
Nathan Brown
Joseph Ellenberger
Vicki Lightcap
Milou Mackenzie

District 132:

(Lehigh)

Michael Schlossberg

District 133:

(Lehigh)

Jeanne McNeill(I)
David Molony

District 134:

(Berks/Lehigh)

Ryan Mackenzie(I)

District 135:

(Northampton)

Stephen Samuelson
Scott Hough

District 136:

(Northampton)

Robert Freeman(I)

District 137:

(Northampton)

Katelind Brennan
Joseph Emrick(I)

District 138:

(Northampton)

Tara Zrinski
Ann Flood
Anthony Tarsi

District 139:

(Pike/Wayne)

Marian Keegan
Michael Peifer(I)

District 140:

(Bucks)

John Galloway(I)
Jeanine McGee

District 141:

(Bucks)

Tina Davis(I)
Kelly Bellerby-Allen

District 142:

(Bucks)

Malinda Lareau
Frank Farry III(I)

District 143:

(Bucks)

Wendy Ullman(I)
Shelby Labs

District 144:

(Bucks)

Gary Spillane
F. Todd Polinchock(I)

District 145:

(Bucks)

Robyn Colajezzi
Craig Staats(I)

District 146:

(Montgomery)

Joseph Ciresi(I)
Thomas Neafcy Jr

District 147:

(Montgomery)

Jill Dennin
Tracy Pennycuick
Anna Scannapieco

District 148:

(Montgomery)

Mary Daley(I)
Allen Anderson

District 149:

(Montgomery)

Tim Briggs(I)

District 150:

(Montgomery)

Joseph Webster(I)
Beth Mazza


Key Takeaways Districts 101-150:

- In this mix of districts across Eastern PA, the GOP contests 45/50 districts, while Dems contest 41/50 districts

- Retirements in districts 125, 127, and 131 have set off primary feeding frenzies

- Among Democratic incumbents, only Mindy Fee, who represents the Harrisburg City district, has a primary challenger.  Two Republican incumbents have primary challengers, including Thomas Mehaffie of District 106, who has THREE.  I'll have to check into what he did to draw that much competition

- District 116 features an interesting matchup, as former Speaker of the PA State House Todd Eachus has come back 10 years after losing the seat to Tarah Toohill to challenge her for his old office.  Toohill has crushed Democratic challengers in recent elections, so I don't expect Eachus to win, but it's still an interesting race

- Democrats seem to again be focusing their attention on the growing Lehigh Valley/Lancaster areas, at the expense of northern and central districts, while Republicans are pushing the Northeast districts, trying to build momentum in Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties

[ctherainbow]

State Representative Primary Candidates District 151-203:


District 151:

(Montgomery)

Jonathan Kassa
William Stephens(I)

District 152:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Nancy Guenst
Karen Houck

District 153:

(Montgomery)

Benjamin Sanchez(I)

District 154:

(Montgomery)

Jay Conners
Jennifer Lugar
Napoleon Nelson Sr
Adrienne Redd
Raymond Sosa
Gretchen Sprigg-Wiseheart
Kathleen Bowers

District 155:

(Chester)

Danielle Otten(I)
Rose Danese
Michael Taylor

District 156:

(Chester)

Carolyn Comitta(I)
Leonard Iacono

District 157:

(Chester/Montgomery)

Melissa Shusterman(I)

District 158:

(Chester)

Christina Sappey(I)
Eric Roe

District 159:

(Delaware)

Brian Kirkland(I)
Angela Prattis
Ruth Moton

District 160:

(Chester/Delaware)

Anton Andrew
Catherine Spahr
Wendell Williams

District 161:

(Delaware)

Leanne Krueger(I)
Ralph Shicatano Jr

District 162:

(Delaware)

David Delloso(I)
Peter Gaglio Jr

District 163:

(Delaware)

Michael Zabel(I)
Michael McCollum

District 164:

(Delaware)

Margo Davidson(I)

District 165:

(Delaware)

Jennifer O'Mara(I)
Robert Smythe Jr

District 166:

(Delaware/Montgomery)

Greg Vitali(I)
Jennifer Leith
Christine Boyle

District 167:

(Chester)

Kristine Howard(I)
Virginia Marcille-Kerslake
Wendy Leland

District 168:

(Delaware)

Debra Ciamacca
Brittany Forman
Christopher Quinn(I)

District 169:

(York)

Kate Klunk(I)

District 170:

(Philadelphia)

Martina White(I)

District 171:

(Centre/Mifflin)

Peter Buckland
Kerry Benninghoff

District 172:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Kevin Boyle(I)
Haroon Bashir

District 173:

(Philadelphia)

Michael Driscoll(I)

District 174:

(Philadelphia)

Ed Neilson(I)

District 175:

(Philadelphia)

Marylouise Isaacson(I)
Jeffrey Dempsey
Vanessa McGrath

District 176:

(Monroe)

Claudette Williams
Jack Rader Jr(I)

District 177:

(Philadelphia)

Joe Hohenstein(I)
John Nungesser

District 178:

(Bucks)

Ann Mitchell
Wendi Thomas(I)

District 179:

(Philadelphia)

Jason Dawkins(I)

District 180:

(Philadelphia)

Angel Cruz(I)

District 181:

(Philadelphia)

Malcolm Kenyatta(I)
Charlotte Greer

District 182:

(Philadelphia)

Brian Sims(I)
Andrew Murray
Marisa Shaaban

District 183:

(Lehigh/Northampton)

Jason Ruff
Zachary Mako(I)

District 184:

(Philadelphia)

Elizabeth Fielder(I)
Louis Menna IV

District 185:

(Delaware/Philadelphia)

Maria Donatucci(I)
Wilson Alexander
Evette Thompson
Regina Young

District 186:

(Philadelphia)

Jordan Harris(I)

District 187:

(Berks/Lehigh)

Michael Blichar Jr
Gary Day(I)

District 188:

(Philadelphia)

James Roebuck(I)
Gregory Benjamin
Karen Dunn
Rick Krajewski

District 189:

(Monroe/Pike)

Adam Rodriguez
Rosemary Brown(I)

District 190:

(Philadelphia)

Gwendolyn Green(I)
Amen Brown
Samuel Downing
Michael Horsey
Roi Ligon Jr
Danyl Patterson
Theodore Smith
Wanda Logan

District 191:

(Delaware/Philadelphia)

Joanna McClinton(I)

District 192:

(Philadelphia)

Morgan Cephas(I)
Jasmine Reavis-Brown
D'Angelo Virgo

District 193:

(Adams/Cumberland)

Torren Ecker

District 194:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Pamela DeLissio(I)
Lisa Riley
Bernard Strain

District 195:

(Philadelphia)

Donna Bullock(I)

District 196:

(York)

Seth Grove(I)

District 197:

(Philadelphia)

Danilo Burgos(I)

District 198:

(Philadelphia)

Fareed Abdullah
Nikki Bagby
Michael Cogbill
Supreme Dow
Darisha Parker
Bernard Williams

District 199:

(Cumberland)

Janelle Crossley
Barbara Gleim(I)

District 200:

(Philadelphia)

Chris Rabb(I)

District 201:

(Philadelphia)

Stephen Kinsey(I)

District 202:

(Philadelphia)

Jared Solomon(I)

District 203:

(Philadelphia)

Isabella Fitzgerald(I)


Key Takeaways Districts 151-203:

- GOP fails to contest 23/50 districts, which is pretty much expected, as this group contains a lot of Philly districts.  Dems contest all but 4 districts

- A TON of Philly Dems are getting primaried, but Philly districts are mostly non-competitive R/D districts

- A few suburban Dems who were recently elected are being primaried in competitive districts, which is not great in terms of saving resources for the general

- Dems fail to recruit a challenger to Martina White in Philadelphia's District 170, which frankly is disappointing/embarrassing for the state Dem party in such a winnable district

[ctherainbow]

Apologies to anyone who may have been following this thread; updates fell off because I'm trying to digitize as much of my candidate's campaign as possible, given the COVID outbreak in PA.

Anyway, just put up the first statewide race; gonna do those before I update the state legislature races, as they're a lot quicker to do.  Thanks for following along and bearing with me!

[ctherainbow]

So sorry for neglecting this thread; campaign work has consumed me.  That said, it appears that the PA State House GOP just shot themselves in the foot.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/pa-house-democrats-say-keeping-gop-colleagues-exposure-to-covid-19-private-is-unacceptable.html

The PA House GOP leadership allegedly did not inform House Democrats that multiple GOP House members, who continued coming to committee meetings with no protective PPE, had tested positive for coronavirus.  And now the video recordings of the meetings in question that featured close contact between unmasked COVID-positive House members and House Democrats, have mysteriously gone missing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

So sorry for neglecting this thread; campaign work has consumed me.  That said, it appears that the PA State House GOP just shot themselves in the foot.

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/05/pa-house-democrats-say-keeping-gop-colleagues-exposure-to-covid-19-private-is-unacceptable.html

The PA House GOP leadership allegedly did not inform House Democrats that multiple GOP House members, who continued coming to committee meetings with no protective PPE, had tested positive for coronavirus.  And now the video recordings of the meetings in question that featured close contact between unmasked COVID-positive House members and House Democrats, have mysteriously gone missing.

How can Turzai and his accomplices not being indicted for what they did?

[😥]

Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!

[Lambsbread]

Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!

Michael Lamb racked up a ton of endorsements statewide--he's Conor Lamb's uncle. If I had to guess who the "favorite" is, it's probably him.

I voted for Nina Ahmad, who seems to have a lot of support in the Philadelphia area but it's tough to gauge whether or not that will translate statewide.

[Continential]

Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!

Michael Lamb racked up a ton of endorsements statewide--he's Conor Lamb's uncle. If I had to guess who the "favorite" is, it's probably him.

I voted for Nina Ahmad, who seems to have a lot of support in the Philadelphia area but it's tough to gauge whether or not that will translate statewide.

I'm guessing that Ahmad will win as the Eastern PA vote was divided by 3 different candidates, (Stack, Ahmad, Cozzone,)

[Not Me, Us]

I'm not sure who to support in the Auditor General primary. It doesn't seem like any major progressive groups have endorsed, and it doesn't seem like there's much policy difference between the candidates. Which one is the most progressive?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Who has the best chance of winning Democratic primary for Auditor?

And also, ctherainbow, you did a great job! This is awesome!

Michael Lamb racked up a ton of endorsements statewide--he's Conor Lamb's uncle. If I had to guess who the "favorite" is, it's probably him.

I voted for Nina Ahmad, who seems to have a lot of support in the Philadelphia area but it's tough to gauge whether or not that will translate statewide.

Interestingly enough, the Philly establishment seems not to be too wild about Ahmed.  Lamb has gotten an unusual amount of support there for a Pittsburgh candidate, he even has the support of both Jim Kenney and his faction of the Philly Democratic machine.  Ahmed has some support in Philly and will obviously win it, but I'm not so sure she'll get even close to the margins she needs in east PA.  Plus, Christina Hartman seems to randomly be getting some establishment support in the Philly burbs and also got Rendell's endorsement (IDK how much pull he still has in Philly though).  I think Lamb is probably the pretty solid favorite here although obviously Ahmed could pull off a win and regional turnout patterns may be weird due to the COVID-19 chaos.

[Lambsbread]

District 61:

(Montgomery)

Florence Friebel

Holy sh*t she was my social studies teacher my sophomore year of high school, I never saw that she was running lmao

[Epaminondas]

PA Primary results: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/02/us/elections/results-pennsylvania-primary-elections.html

5 state representatives have lost their primaries:
Ravenstahl (20), Puskaric (39), Donatucci (185), Roebuck (188) & Green (190)

And 2 state senators:
Farnese (1) & Leach (17)

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/PhillyInquirer/status/1269385718855536641?s=20

As more mail ballots come in, it can be projected that the Leach goes down.