2020 PA State Elections Megathread

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/StephenJ_Caruso/status/1202303029388685312

The previous representative also resigned over corruption, whose seat rep. Johnson-Harrell took over after a special election earlier this year.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Damn that’s a shame... anyways, the special is Mega Titanium D... that district is smack in the middle of Philadelphia.

[ctherainbow]

Whoo boy.  There's an embarrassingly long record of corruption in that seat.  Was hoping Johnson-Harrell would end it.         Anyway, agree with others; seat is Safe D.  Let's hope the third rep this term can give more ethical representation to Philadelphians.

[ctherainbow]

State House Updates, Retirement Edition 2.0:


District 8:

Republican Tedd Nesbit is resigning from this deeply red northwestern PA district to take a judicial seat he won this November.  The seat being open might knock down the margins a bit in 2020, but hell would freeze over before this district flips.  Veronica Cardello, a local realtor and Republican, has announced that she will run for this seat.

http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884

Strong R --> Strong R


District 58:

Another Republican resigning to take a position as a judge, Justin Walsh's exit has one silver lining for the state GOP, as he was dogged by multiple criminal convictions, yet also managed to not only flip this district in 2016, but actually improve upon those numbers in 2018.  The Republican who runs to fill this seat should benefit from the region's conservative trend, but perhaps not as much as Walsh would have as an incumbent.  Two Democrats have already announced their intention to contest this seat; an Army veteran and a local small business owner.

https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/yough-school-board-president-running-for-state-rep/

Likely R --> Lean R


District 131:

Republican Justin Simmons, who represented this seat since 2010, has announced that he will be retiring at the end of his term.  Straddling a trio of the north-end Philly burb counties, this district is an even more enticing target for Dems now that it's an open seat.  Simmons had held the district for the GOP in several close elections in the past, but will the state Republicans be able to hang on to the district in 2020?  We'll have to see.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html

Tilt R --> Tossup


District 138:

Republican Marcia Hahn is retiring at the end of her term in this relatively Republican Northampton County district.  This district could potentially become competitive, but isn't likely to unless a lot of things go right for the eventual Democratic nominee.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html

Likely R --> Likely R


District 147:

Republican Caucus Chairwoman Marcy Toepel is retiring at the end of her term, leaving this northern Montgomery County district open, and likely making it a stretch target for the state Dems.  It has a hard GOP lean, but a strong Democrat challenger could likely make the GOP nominee sweat.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/

Likely R --> Lean R

[Frenchrepublican]

State House Updates, Retirement Edition 2.0:


District 8:

Republican Tedd Nesbit is resigning from this deeply red northwestern PA district to take a judicial seat he won this November.  The seat being open might knock down the margins a bit in 2020, but hell would freeze over before this district flips.  Veronica Cardello, a local realtor and Republican, has announced that she will run for this seat.

http://www.butlereagle.com/article/20191202/NEWS12/712029884

Strong R --> Strong R


District 58:

Another Republican resigning to take a position as a judge, Justin Walsh's exit has one silver lining for the state GOP, as he was dogged by multiple criminal convictions, yet also managed to not only flip this district in 2016, but actually improve upon those numbers in 2018.  The Republican who runs to fill this seat should benefit from the region's conservative trend, but perhaps not as much as Walsh would have as an incumbent.  Two Democrats have already announced their intention to contest this seat; an Army veteran and a local small business owner.

https://triblive.com/local/westmoreland/yough-school-board-president-running-for-state-rep/

Likely R --> Lean R


District 131:

Republican Justin Simmons, who represented this seat since 2010, has announced that he will be retiring at the end of his term.  Straddling a trio of the north-end Philly burb counties, this district is an even more enticing target for Dems now that it's an open seat.  Simmons had held the district for the GOP in several close elections in the past, but will the state Republicans be able to hang on to the district in 2020?  We'll have to see.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html

Tilt R --> Tossup


District 138:

Republican Marcia Hahn is retiring at the end of her term in this relatively Republican Northampton County district.  This district could potentially become competitive, but isn't likely to unless a lot of things go right for the eventual Democratic nominee.

https://www.mcall.com/news/pennsylvania/mc-nws-pennsylvania-house-openings-2020-election-20191220-u3gpfv7llvgbfa2uutqep3qxca-story.html

Likely R --> Likely R


District 147:

Republican Caucus Chairwoman Marcy Toepel is retiring at the end of her term, leaving this northern Montgomery County district open, and likely making it a stretch target for the state Dems.  It has a hard GOP lean, but a strong Democrat challenger could likely make the GOP nominee sweat.

https://www.penncapital-star.com/blog/high-ranking-house-republican-toepel-announces-2020-retirement/

Likely R --> Lean R

Rating HD58 as Lean R seems very optimistic. Trump won this district 63/34 and even Romney prevailed here by a 55/43 margin. And considering how red Westmoreland is becoming, I think Strong R would bem more approriate

[ctherainbow]

Rating HD58 as Lean R seems very optimistic. Trump won this district 63/34 and even Romney prevailed here by a 55/43 margin. And considering how red Westmoreland is becoming, I think Strong R would bem more approriate

I could definitely see an argument for Likely R, which I almost left it at.  I don't buy the Trump trends being permanent, and downballot Democrats can easily outperform the top of the ballot.  I'd hesitate to rate this as Strong R, though, because in my ratings, Strong R is reserved for districts where the opposing party has only a snowball's chance in hell of winning, and what I see in the data for this district looks more the Greenland ice cap in hell for Democrats.  But thanks for your rating!  I hope you're gonna be following the PA state elections in 2020 with the rest of us.     

[Badger]

With his record of convictions, how the hell did Justin Walsh get elected JUDGE?!?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

With his record of convictions, how the hell did Justin get elected JUDGE?!?

That's WePA Republicans to you...

[Mexican Wolf]

It's too bad Senate District 48 is so red; Schroeder would make a great State Senator. Here's hoping for a massive upset.

[Lourdes]

https://twitter.com/astockeyWTAE/status/1214643438244843522

[ctherainbow]

George Scott, a PA10 Democratic congressional candidate who tried and narrowly failed to flip the house district, is throwing his hat in the ring for the PA Senate 15th capitol district race this year.  

https://www.pennlive.com/news/2020/01/democrat-george-scott-says-hes-running-for-state-senate-seat-in-harrisburg-report.html

[Boomerberg2020]

I think the Dem nominee for president will decide how the suburban seats vote downballot. Someone like Biden or Amy would hold these seats for dems while Bernie or Warren would cause major damage.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1220082822343471105

Seems significant, Turzai is in a swing seat is he not?

[Lambsbread]

Turzai retiring:

https://twitter.com/WGAL/status/1220387988389146624

[wbrocks67]

Can't imagine that says anything good for the PA GOP this year.

[ctherainbow]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1220082822343471105
Seems significant, Turzai is in a swing seat is he not?

It’s a solidly Lean R district, Likely R if Turzai had continued to entrench himself.  As an open district, the 28th is definitely a stretch target for House Dems, and if it flips, it’s likely that Dems are taking the State House.  In a neutral or mildly pro-Democrat environment, the 28th will probably stay Republican.

However, his retirement is surprising given the likelihood of the GOP hanging on to the PA state legislature.  Maybe the state GOP is seeing stormclouds in their internal polls?  Or maybe Turzai actually just wants to spend more time with his family.  It’s a long trek from Allegheny to Harrisburg.

[Badger]

I grew up in the 28th District. The fact that it was even remotely competitive this past election still boggles my mind. Of course it also blew my mind in the decidedly upper-middle-class Housing Development I lived in to see Obama signs springing up in 2008. Going home to visit my parents from Ohio I thought I'd somehow driven through a wormhole into an alternative universe.

Upper middle-class suburbs in Western Pennsylvania like the 28th District are shifting Democratic know where remotely to the same speed that Philadelphia suburbs have over the last 20 years, but there is some shifting.

Who knows, the race was closeish in 2018. Still a reach for Democrats though

[Oryxslayer]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1227764058071470080

Not just Turzai but also Scarnati is now out. The democrats shouldn't be favored to flip both chambers, so what gives? Do both of them fear next years redistricting/reapportionment battle? 

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1227764058071470080

Not just Turzai but also Scarnati is now out. The democrats shouldn't be favored to flip both chambers, so what gives? Do both of them fear next years redistricting/reapportionment battle? 

It's gotta be something. Common sense would tell you Rs will probably keep the chamber, so it seems odd that they'd both be retiring. Do they know something we don't?

[Lambsbread]

https://twitter.com/timelywriter/status/1227764058071470080

Not just Turzai but also Scarnati is now out. The democrats shouldn't be favored to flip both chambers, so what gives? Do both of them fear next years redistricting/reapportionment battle? 

I'll f--kin' take it.

[Orser67]

Upper middle-class suburbs in Western Pennsylvania like the 28th District are shifting Democratic know where remotely to the same speed that Philadelphia suburbs have over the last 20 years, but there is some shifting.

Yeah, although the Greater Pittsburgh area overall has shifted against Democrats, Allegheny County (which contains both Pittsburgh and many surrounding suburbs, including at least parts of Turzai's district) was one of just five counties where Clinton improved on Obama's margin of victory. Three of the other four counties that trended Democratic in 2016 were suburban counties in SEPA, and the remaining county is home to Penn State.

[ctherainbow]

Alrighty, so filing wrapped up on Tuesday(sidenote, the filing line was hell; I waited with my candidate for 4 hours and I swear they were trying to winnow the candidate fields through a literal trial by fire with how high the thermostat was), so we finally have an idea of what the initial candidate spread looks like.


State Senate Primary Candidates:


District 1:

(Philadelphia)

Larry Farnese(I)
Nikil Saval

District 3:

(Philadelphia)

Sharif Street(I)

District 5:

(Philadelphia)

John Sabatina Jr(I)

District 7:

(Montgomery/Philadelphia)

Vincent Hughes(I)
Devon Cade

District 9:

(Chester/Delaware)

Brett Burman
John Kane
Robert McKinstry Jr
Thomas Killion(I)

District 11:

(Berks)

Judy Schwank(I)
Annette Baker

District 13:

(Lancaster)

Craig Lehman
Janet Temin
Scott Martin(I)

District 15:

(Dauphin/Perry)

George Scott
Alvin Taylor Sr
John DiSanto(I)

District 17:

(Delaware/Montgomery)

Daylin Leach(I)
Elvira Berry
Amanda Cappelletti
Parthenia Izzard
Ellen Fisher

District 19:

(Chester)

Kyle Boyer
Carolyn Comitta
Don Vymazal II
Kevin Runey
Amber Turner

District 21:

(Butler/Clarion/Forest/Venango/Warren)

Shelbie Stromyer
Scott Hutchinson(I)

District 23:

(Bradford/Lycoming/Sullivan/Susquehanna/Union)

Jackie Baker
Gene Yaw(I)

District 25:

(Cameron/Clearfield/Clinton/Elk/Jefferson/McKean/Potter/Tioga)

Margaret Brown
James Brown
Cris Dush
John Suplizio

District 27:

(Columbia/Luzerne/Montour/Northumberland/Snyder)

Michelle Siegel
John Gordner(I)

District 29:

(Berks/Schuylkill)

Dave Argall(I)

District 31:

(Cumberland/York)

John Bosha
Richard Coplen
Shanna Danielson
Michael Regan(I)

District 33:

(Adams/Cumberland/Franklin/York)

Richard Sterner
Doug Mastriano(I)

District 35:

(Bedford/Cambria/Clearfield)

Shaun Dougherty
Wayne Langerholc Jr(I)

District 37:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Pam Iovino(I)
Jeffrey Neff
Devlin Robinson

District 39:

(Westmoreland)

Tay Waltenbaugh
Kim Ward(I)

District 41:

(Armstrong/Butler/Indiana/Westmoreland)

Anthony Deloreto
Joe Pittman(I)

District 43:

(Allegheny)

Jay Costa Jr(I)
William Brittain

District 45:

(Allegheny/Westmoreland)

James Brewster(I)
Nicole Ziccarelli

District 47:

(Beaver/Butler/Lawrence)

John Krizan III
Elder Vogel(I)

District 49:

(Erie)

Andre Horton
Julie Slomski
Daniel Laughlin(I)


Key Takeaways:

- Dems fail to contest one race, GOP leaves 5 races uncontested

- Everyone wants to knock out Killion and Leach

- No GOP Senators face primary challenges, allowing them to save resources for the general

- None of the competitive general election Dem-held districts feature a contested primary

- Both the GOP and Dem open districts feature well-known contenders from their party

- The PA State Senate could have its first openly queer Senator if Brett Burman wins the 9th

[MaxQue]

Any possibility than a primary challenge is successful?

[ctherainbow]

Any possibility than a primary challenge is successful?

Which race?  Daylin Leach could easily be knocked off, yes, the others, I doubt it as things stand today.

[ctherainbow]

State Representative Primary Candidates District 1-50:


District 1:

(Erie)

Patrick Harkins(I)

District 2:

(Erie)

Robert Merski(I)

District 3:

(Erie)

Ryan Bizzarro(I)
Greg Hayes

District 4:

(Erie)

Curtis Sonney(I)

District 5:

(Berks)

Graham Gonzales
Barry Jozwiak(I)

District 6:

(Crawford/Erie)

Matthew Ferrence
Bradley Roae(I)

District 7:

(Mercer)

Mark Longietti(I)

District 8:

(Butler/Mercer)

Phillip Heasley
Timothy Bonner
Scott Jaillet

District 9:

(Lawrence)

Chris Sainato(I)
Carol Ryan

District 10:

(Beaver/Butler/Lawrence)

Kolbe Cole
Aaron Bernstine(I)

District 11:

(Butler)

Samuel Doctor
Marci Mustello(I)
Ryan Covert

District 12:

(Butler)

Daniel Smith Jr
Daryl Metcalfe(I)
Scott Timko

District 13:

(Chester/Lancaster)

Richard Ruggieri III
John Lawrence(I)

District 14:

(Beaver/Butler)

Zachary Wilson
James Marshall(I)

District 15:

(Beaver/Washington)

Robert Williams Sr
Joshua Kail(I)

District 16:

(Allegheny/Beaver)

Robert Matzie(I)
Rico Elmore

District 17:

(Crawford/Erie/Lawrence/Mercer)

Jeffery Omelian
Parke Wentling(I)

District 18:

(Bucks)

Harold Hayes
Kathleen Tomlinson

District 19:

(Allegheny)

Jake Wheatley(I)
Aerion Abney

District 20:

(Allegheny)

Adam Ravenstahl(I)
Emily Kinkead

District 21:

(Allegheny)

Sara Innamorato(I)
John Waugh

District 22:

(Lehigh)

Peter Schweyer(I)
Enid Santiago

District 23:

(Allegheny)

Dan Frankel(I)

District 24:

(Allegheny)

Edward Gainey(I)
William Anderson

District 25:

(Allegheny)

Brandon Markosek(I)
John Ritter

District 26:

(Chester/Montgomery)

Paul Friel Jr
Frank Gillen
Timothy Hennessey(I)

District 27:

(Allegheny)

Daniel Deasy(I)

District 28:

(Allegheny)

Emily Skopov
Elizabeth Blackburn
Michael Heckmann
Robert Mercuri

District 29:

(Bucks)

Marlene Katz
Meghan Schroeder(I)
Gregory Archetto

District 30:

(Allegheny)

Melissa Shulman
Marco Attisano
Lori Mizgorski(I)

District 31:

(Bucks)

Perry Warren(I)
Charles Adcock

District 32:

(Allegheny)

Anthony DeLuca(I)
Erin Vecchio

District 33:

(Allegheny/Westmoreland)

Francis Dermody(I)
Carrie Delrosso

District 34:

(Allegheny)

Summer Lee(I)
Christopher Roland

District 35:

(Allegheny)

Austin Davis(I)

District 36:

(Allegheny)

Jessica Benham
Mark Johnson
Heather Kass
Edward Moeller
Jacob Nixon
Adrian Doyle

District 37:

(Lancaster)

John Padora Jr
Melinda Fee(I)

District 38:

(Allegheny)

Anthony Dicenzo
Nickolas Pisciottano
Victoria Schmotzer

District 39:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Sara-Summer Oliphant
Michael Puskaric(I)
Thomas Kirsch

District 40:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Sharon Guidi
Natalie Mihalek(I)

District 41:

(Lancaster)

Michele Wherley
Brett Miller(I)
Bradford Witmer

District 42:

(Allegheny)

Daniel Miller(I)

District 43:

(Lancaster)

Keith Greiner(I)

District 44:

(Allegheny)

Michele Knoll
Valerie Gaydos(I)
Robert Doddato

District 45:

(Allegheny)

Anita Kulik(I)
Daniel Devito
Malek Francis

District 46:

(Allegheny/Washington)

Byron Timmins
Jason Ortitay(I)

District 47:

(York)

Keith Gillespie(I)

District 48:

(Washington)

Harlan Shober Jr
Timothy O'Neal(I)

District 49:

(Fayette/Washington)

Randy Barli
Donald Cook(I)
Anthiny Bottino Jr

District 50:

(Fayette/Green/Washington)

Pam Snyder(I)
Larry Yost II


Key Takeaways Districts 1-50:

- Dems fail to contest 3/50 seats, GOP fails to contest 14/50 seats

- The GOP not contesting District 7 is a recruiting failure.  While the district won't be as easy to pick up as you may think for a non-city Western PA district(in part because of its black population), this is still a district that Dems should not be given a free pass on if you're the state GOP

- 6 Dem incumbents face primary challengers, but none are in a competitive R/D district, while 7 GOP incumbents face primary challengers, and 5 of those are in seats I would consider at least Lean in terms of general election competitiveness, including 2 Tilt R and 1 Tossup races