Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Walmart_shopper]

Wait a minute. As far as I can see Gantz got the signatures from Joint List, Democratic Union, Labour, Blue and White and Israel Beiteinu (Lieberman), and Bibi got the signatures from Beiteinu and Likud - it means Gantz has over 61 and Netanyahu doesn't?

Yes, but it is only a recommendation to (once again) get the mandate to try forming a government. Gantz realizes that he won't do any better this time than three weeks ago, so he isn't even bothering to turn the signatures in.  Unless Liberman is willing to back a minority government this is all pointless. Netanyahu won't do any better with the mandate, either, but he is desperate for time and any political lifeline he can find. So this is yet another doomed gambit to save his skin but which only serves to show that the emperor truly has no clothes.

[jaymichaud]

Lieberman’s “I would have joined the right wing bloc in a coalition if the Haredim compromised” comment will hurt him in the future, won’t it?

I was under the impression his increased seats were because of him running on an explicitly pro-unity government platform.

[Walmart_shopper]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

[Hnv1]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

[Walmart_shopper]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

[cp]

Wait a minute. As far as I can see Gantz got the signatures from Joint List, Democratic Union, Labour, Blue and White and Israel Beiteinu (Lieberman), and Bibi got the signatures from Beiteinu and Likud - it means Gantz has over 61 and Netanyahu doesn't?

Yes, but it is only a recommendation to (once again) get the mandate to try forming a government. Gantz realizes that he won't do any better this time than three weeks ago, so he isn't even bothering to turn the signatures in.  Unless Liberman is willing to back a minority government this is all pointless. Netanyahu won't do any better with the mandate, either, but he is desperate for time and any political lifeline he can find. So this is yet another doomed gambit to save his skin but which only serves to show that the emperor truly has no clothes.

Assuming that's true, how long will this take to play out? Also, am I correct in thinking the next step, assuming no one miraculously manages to form a government, is the official call for an election in Feb/March 2020?

[Walmart_shopper]

Wait a minute. As far as I can see Gantz got the signatures from Joint List, Democratic Union, Labour, Blue and White and Israel Beiteinu (Lieberman), and Bibi got the signatures from Beiteinu and Likud - it means Gantz has over 61 and Netanyahu doesn't?

Yes, but it is only a recommendation to (once again) get the mandate to try forming a government. Gantz realizes that he won't do any better this time than three weeks ago, so he isn't even bothering to turn the signatures in.  Unless Liberman is willing to back a minority government this is all pointless. Netanyahu won't do any better with the mandate, either, but he is desperate for time and any political lifeline he can find. So this is yet another doomed gambit to save his skin but which only serves to show that the emperor truly has no clothes.

Assuming that's true, how long will this take to play out? Also, am I correct in thinking the next step, assuming no one miraculously manages to form a government, is the official call for an election in Feb/March 2020?

Probably early March, because they want to avoid Purim in mid-March. It has to be within 90 days of dissolving the Knesset.

[Famous Mortimer]

Prediction: 3rd election also ends in same deadlock. Netanyahu agrees to trade stepping down as leader of Likud for immunity. How likely?

[jaymichaud]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Wait... are you Palestinian?

[jaymichaud]

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/tv-netanyahu-offered-to-serve-as-pm-for-under-6-months-then-give-post-to-gantz/

"According to Channel 13, Netanyahu, in closed talks, says he offered Benny Gantz a premiership rotation agreement, under which he would serve as prime minister for up to six months before vacating the position for the Blue and White leader."

Bluffing or nah?

[Hnv1]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Arnona isn’t that the boring religious neighborhood to the south?

I lived 4 years in Rehavia and honestly beyond mt. Scopus/Nahlahot/city centre I hardly saw any of the city

[jaymichaud]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Arnona isn’t that the boring religious neighborhood to the south?

I lived 4 years in Rehavia and honestly beyond mt. Scopus/Nahlahot/city centre I hardly saw any of the city

Ugh I wanna make aliyah so bad.

Jerusalem is definitely not for me though. I need somewhere secular, modern, coastal and affordable and from what I’ve seen Jlem is none of those things lol

[America Needs R'hllor]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Arnona isn’t that the boring religious neighborhood to the south?

I lived 4 years in Rehavia and honestly beyond mt. Scopus/Nahlahot/city centre I hardly saw any of the city

Ugh I wanna make aliyah so bad.

Jerusalem is definitely not for me though. I need somewhere secular, modern, coastal and affordable and from what I’ve seen Jlem is none of those things lol

I guess Haifa is a decent option for you, then. Honestly if not for the massive air pollution I could see my future there.

[Hnv1]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Arnona isn’t that the boring religious neighborhood to the south?

I lived 4 years in Rehavia and honestly beyond mt. Scopus/Nahlahot/city centre I hardly saw any of the city

Ugh I wanna make aliyah so bad.

Jerusalem is definitely not for me though. I need somewhere secular, modern, coastal and affordable and from what I’ve seen Jlem is none of those things lol

I guess Haifa is a decent option for you, then. Honestly if not for the massive air pollution I could see my future there.

air pollution is actually quite fake news. You're all welcome to join me on the green mountain

[America Needs R'hllor]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Arnona isn’t that the boring religious neighborhood to the south?

I lived 4 years in Rehavia and honestly beyond mt. Scopus/Nahlahot/city centre I hardly saw any of the city

Ugh I wanna make aliyah so bad.

Jerusalem is definitely not for me though. I need somewhere secular, modern, coastal and affordable and from what I’ve seen Jlem is none of those things lol

I guess Haifa is a decent option for you, then. Honestly if not for the massive air pollution I could see my future there.

air pollution is actually quite fake news. You're all welcome to join me on the green mountain

I'll be sure to question you about it when it becomes an option

[Walmart_shopper]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Wait... are you Palestinian?

Nope. But I suspect 85-90% of my neighbors would indeed characterize themselves as such. I certainly don't.

[Walmart_shopper]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Arnona isn’t that the boring religious neighborhood to the south?

I lived 4 years in Rehavia and honestly beyond mt. Scopus/Nahlahot/city centre I hardly saw any of the city

No, Arnona is the wealthy, secular neighborhood by Talpiot where the US embassy is.

I definitely prefer Talbieh/Rehaviah, too, but my wife works in Beit Hanina, our kids go to school in Beit Hanina, and I'm near there for my commute, so Rehavia costs much more and makes much less sense. We were in French Hill and frankly we're trying to go back. If it worked out I think we would definitely prefer the Maronite hotbed of Haifa. I really can't stand Jerusalem and love Haifa a lot.

[Hnv1]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Wait... are you Palestinian?

Nope. But I suspect 85-90% of my neighbors would indeed characterize themselves as such. I certainly don't.

Well I do recall some Balad MK claiming Maronites aren't Arabs, I assume there's some dispute on that (same with the Assyrian Christians up north).

[jaymichaud]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Wait... are you Palestinian?

Nope. But I suspect 85-90% of my neighbors would indeed characterize themselves as such. I certainly don't.

Well I do recall some Balad MK claiming Maronites aren't Arabs, I assume there's some dispute on that (same with the Assyrian Christians up north).

There’s quite a big Lebanese population in my province and Maronites are pretty much their own thing.

[Walmart_shopper]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Wait... are you Palestinian?

Nope. But I suspect 85-90% of my neighbors would indeed characterize themselves as such. I certainly don't.

Well I do recall some Balad MK claiming Maronites aren't Arabs, I assume there's some dispute on that (same with the Assyrian Christians up north).

There’s quite a big Lebanese population in my province and Maronites are pretty much their own thing.

Indeed. I used to live in South Florida and half our parish was comprised of Quebecois snowbirds. I actually would love to visit Quebec sometime.

[Walmart_shopper]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Wait... are you Palestinian?

Nope. But I suspect 85-90% of my neighbors would indeed characterize themselves as such. I certainly don't.

Well I do recall some Balad MK claiming Maronites aren't Arabs, I assume there's some dispute on that (same with the Assyrian Christians up north).

The guy behind the whole "Aramean" teudat zehut thing is a Maronite. And it used to be a thing in Lebanon for super-nationalist Maronites to idenrify as "Phoenician."  I never understood all of that, though. "Arab" is no longer--if it ever was--an ethnic marker. It's like being "Anglo" in North America. Arab just means you are from the Arab ethno-linguistic family, which is why there are black Bedouin Arabs and white Lebanese Arabs with blonde hair. For weird ideological reasons some Arabs don't want to be considered Arabs. I'm sure that the growing Islamicization of Arab nationalism is one reason for that uneasiness. But it's a bit revisionist and odd, in my opinion.

[jaymichaud]

In other news, Walmart is apparently readying for a location in my city of Jerusalem. As you can imagine, the excitement in my home is palpable. Between this, a new election, and Amazon's free shipping from the US I could run a small city's electrical grid with adrenaline.

If Talpiot is as bleak as I remember it from my days in Jerusalem I would still shop at Ikea over travelling to that dump

I live in Beit Hanina, as one does when they are trying to get as far as possible from Talpiot.

Arnona is quite nice, though.

Arnona isn’t that the boring religious neighborhood to the south?

I lived 4 years in Rehavia and honestly beyond mt. Scopus/Nahlahot/city centre I hardly saw any of the city

Ugh I wanna make aliyah so bad.

Jerusalem is definitely not for me though. I need somewhere secular, modern, coastal and affordable and from what I’ve seen Jlem is none of those things lol

I guess Haifa is a decent option for you, then. Honestly if not for the massive air pollution I could see my future there.

I have quite a bit of family in Nesher which is just nearby. I’m only 22 and I’ll be coming over on my own (my parents are 51 and 49 and have already done the whole ‘moving to a new country and adjusting to the surroundings’ thing already) so a city would definitely be the best option for me. Tel Aviv isn’t my cup of tea either.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So the AG submitted the Netanyahu indictment to the Knesset. Now, Bibi has 30 days to request immunity. If he does request one, it can only be approved in a special "Knesset Committee" which usually operates only when a government is formed. But- according to the Knesset judicial advisor, if there's a politicial majority for forming such a committee it can be done now. So again, it depends on Lieberman- according to journalist Tal Schneider, he's given an ambiguous answer but since he said Bibi needs to face a court it seems likelier than not that he'd vote for that. If he supports it, we can finally remove the immunity option from the table and officially indict Netanyahu soon.

Also, Likud's current spin is that Bibi needs to be PM first to annex the west bank and make a defense treaty with the US, and that Gantz is refusing a unity government and botching a "historic opportunity". It's actually very sad- these spins didn't work last time, and they're still desperate enough to bring them out of retirement.

[Walmart_shopper]

So the AG submitted the Netanyahu indictment to the Knesset. Now, Bibi has 30 days to request immunity. If he does request one, it can only be approved in a special "Knesset Committee" which usually operates only when a government is formed. But- according to the Knesset judicial advisor, if there's a politicial majority for forming such a committee it can be done now. So again, it depends on Lieberman- according to journalist Tal Schneider, he's given an ambiguous answer but since he said Bibi needs to face a court it seems likelier than not that he'd vote for that. If he supports it, we can finally remove the immunity option from the table and officially indict Netanyahu soon.

Also, Likud's current spin is that Bibi needs to be PM first to annex the west bank and make a defense treaty with the US, and that Gantz is refusing a unity government and botching a "historic opportunity". It's actually very sad- these spins didn't work last time, and they're still desperate enough to bring them out of retirement.

The irony is that with immunity off the table Netanyahu has absolutely zero political ground to stand on, and could therefore be quickly deposed. If they move this quickly enough a third election could conceivably be avoided.

Also, it feels like the only people to not get the message that the Trump White House is not only mercurial and therefore unreliable but also in deep trouble politicallly are the queens of diplomatic suicide on the Israeli right. Using Trump as a political tool worked three years ago. Nobody is dumb enough to buy it today.

[America Needs R'hllor]

So the AG submitted the Netanyahu indictment to the Knesset. Now, Bibi has 30 days to request immunity. If he does request one, it can only be approved in a special "Knesset Committee" which usually operates only when a government is formed. But- according to the Knesset judicial advisor, if there's a politicial majority for forming such a committee it can be done now. So again, it depends on Lieberman- according to journalist Tal Schneider, he's given an ambiguous answer but since he said Bibi needs to face a court it seems likelier than not that he'd vote for that. If he supports it, we can finally remove the immunity option from the table and officially indict Netanyahu soon.

Also, Likud's current spin is that Bibi needs to be PM first to annex the west bank and make a defense treaty with the US, and that Gantz is refusing a unity government and botching a "historic opportunity". It's actually very sad- these spins didn't work last time, and they're still desperate enough to bring them out of retirement.

The irony is that with immunity off the table Netanyahu has absolutely zero political ground to stand on, and could therefore be quickly deposed. If they move this quickly enough a third election could conceivably be avoided.

Also, it feels like the only people to not get the message that the Trump White House is not only mercurial and therefore unreliable but also in deep trouble politicallly are the queens of diplomatic suicide on the Israeli right. Using Trump as a political tool worked three years ago. Nobody is dumb enough to buy it today.

This thing with a defense treaty is completely dumb, too. It's probably not even good for Israeli interests.