Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[Hnv1]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I am going to call it now. The Arab-left bloc will get a majority in March.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I've already been hearing people talking about boycotting the election. This is going to be a disaster, the Haredim and Likudniks will turn out while the center left will virtue-signal and remain home to be "principled" or something.

Also, Lieberman said this convention needs to be between "Zionist parties", aka not Haredi or Arab. He's really going for that xenophobic vote

[Hnv1]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I am going to call it now. The Arab-left bloc will get a majority in March.

care to take a bet? we'll wire the cash according to the winner

[Hnv1]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I've already been hearing people talking about boycotting the election. This is going to be a disaster, the Haredim and Likudniks will turn out while the center left will virtue-signal and remain home to be "principled" or something.

Also, Lieberman said this convention needs to be between "Zionist parties", aka not Haredi or Arab. He's really going for that xenophobic vote

Likudnik vote isn't going to rise above the left vote in any case.

[Walmart_shopper]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

Isn't the indictment coming during the 21 days period, finally?

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I've already been hearing people talking about boycotting the election. This is going to be a disaster, the Haredim and Likudniks will turn out while the center left will virtue-signal and remain home to be "principled" or something.

Also, Lieberman said this convention needs to be between "Zionist parties", aka not Haredi or Arab. He's really going for that xenophobic vote

The left and Haredim will, as always, show up reliably and forcefully. But the Arab, Likud, and settler vote will be insanely difficult to guess. I could see Otzmah clearing the threshold and the left still winning a majority.  In any case it's bad for drmocracy and bad for the country.

[Walmart_shopper]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

Isn't the indictment coming during the 21 days period, finally?

Yeah, but only the formal announcement of intent to file. The actual filing usually comes weeks later, although that is just a legal formality. What everyone is waiting for is to see what charges exactly Mandelblit will go with.

[Walmart_shopper]

Lieberman says...we need a convention on state religion relations. and direct elections to PM in a presidential powers.

so third elections it is

I am going to call it now. The Arab-left bloc will get a majority in March.

care to take a bet? we'll wire the cash according to the winner

I'm not super-confident about my prediction. It's just a hunch based on current polling and the past few elections.

I definitely don't think the right will do any better than the left, though. Although maybe we'll end up with a pure Arab-Haredi government of immunity, led by Aryeh Deri.

[Hnv1]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

true. every MK has a right to request immunity and you can't discuss immunity without a permanent Knesset committee

[Walmart_shopper]

Another likely victim of a new election: polling. There were fewer polls in September than in April, probably hecause media budgets didn't account for very pricey polls for two elections. Not only will a third election mean that media will perhaps opt for bad or no polling, but the unpredictable composition of the electorate will keep pollsters away who want to avoid looking silly.

[America Needs R'hllor]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

true. every MK has a right to request immunity and you can't discuss immunity without a permanent Knesset committee

So if the SC decides that he can't form a government it'll not be true until he's officially indicted, even if Mandelblit finally makes a decision?

[Hnv1]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

true. every MK has a right to request immunity and you can't discuss immunity without a permanent Knesset committee

So if the SC decides that he can't form a government it'll not be true until he's officially indicted, even if Mandelblit finally makes a decision?

mmmm I really don't think there's a clear cut answer right now. I'm leaning towards no as Haim Katz is under the same situation and no indictment until immunity debate.

[Walmart_shopper]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Bibi can delay the actual filing of the indictment if an interim Knesset committee simply requests a delay until the next Knesset is sworn in. Which means that it could be well into April before he is actually indicted.

true. every MK has a right to request immunity and you can't discuss immunity without a permanent Knesset committee

So if the SC decides that he can't form a government it'll not be true until he's officially indicted, even if Mandelblit finally makes a decision?

And keep in mind, now the big debate hnv1 and I have been having about an interim prime minister under indictment becomes really germane. Mandelblit said that he won't want Bibi serving as interin pm if indicted for bribery. Does that mean when charges are announced? Filed? Or did he not even mean/say it at all?

What a mess.

[Hnv1]

Likud admit they agreed that Gantz will be first in return for immunity to Bibi. what a piss pot of a party

[Walmart_shopper]

Likud admit they agreed that Gantz will be first in return for immunity to Bibi. what a piss pot of a party

It's a cult. If you look at it from a hermeneutic of cultism, it becomes less confounding and even--almost--sympathetic.

[America Needs R'hllor]

MK Moshe Gafni on Lieberman: "an antisemitic speech, who do you think you are? You're nothing!"

Tea.

[jaymichaud]

MK Moshe Gafni on Lieberman: "an antisemitic speech, who do you think you are? You're nothing!"

Tea.

I love it. It just drives Lieberman further away from that toxic bloc.

[Oryxslayer]

So while I was asleep have we actually gone of the metaphorical cliff guaranteeing third elections? Or will there be room for more shenanigans like a non-Bibi, non-Gantz, MK getting the go ahead from the Pres to form a government? 

[America Needs R'hllor]

So while I was asleep have we actually gone of the metaphorical cliff guaranteeing third elections? Or will there be room for more shenanigans like a non-Bibi, non-Gantz, MK getting the go ahead from the Pres to form a government? 

There are still 21 days until an election is triggered, so Bibi, Gantz or someone else can still present 61 recommendations to have another try (this time limited by 14 days).

[Hnv1]

So while I was asleep have we actually gone of the metaphorical cliff guaranteeing third elections? Or will there be room for more shenanigans like a non-Bibi, non-Gantz, MK getting the go ahead from the Pres to form a government? 

There are still 21 days until an election is triggered, so Bibi, Gantz or someone else can still present 61 recommendations to have another try (this time limited by 14 days).

this but with the current levels of distrust I can't see anyone signing for the other guy to get a mandate again.

B&W don't believe a word Bibi says, and the chiefs know him well enough so this is a wise call. Bibi doesn't really care, he stays pm as long as nothing change and he only cares about his trial

I think it's time for a little military coup, the B&W chiefs have the men in the IDF, make it a silent one where they inform bibi he has to go

[Walmart_shopper]

MK Moshe Gafni on Lieberman: "an antisemitic speech, who do you think you are? You're nothing!"

Tea.

I love it. It just drives Lieberman further away from that toxic bloc.

Calling him an "efes" is definitely a sign of warming relations after the last campaign in which Liberman was called a Nazi.

[Walmart_shopper]

Here is a question. Are interim ministerial positions voted on in plenum? I don't understand why Naftali Bennet gets to remain defense minister despite a Knesset that has more left wingers than right wingers. It seems awful and dumb that we are using a Knesset dissolved one year ago to determine the interim government a year and a half later.

[Walmart_shopper]

So while I was asleep have we actually gone of the metaphorical cliff guaranteeing third elections? Or will there be room for more shenanigans like a non-Bibi, non-Gantz, MK getting the go ahead from the Pres to form a government? 

There are still 21 days until an election is triggered, so Bibi, Gantz or someone else can still present 61 recommendations to have another try (this time limited by 14 days).

this but with the current levels of distrust I can't see anyone signing for the other guy to get a mandate again.

B&W don't believe a word Bibi says, and the chiefs know him well enough so this is a wise call. Bibi doesn't really care, he stays pm as long as nothing change and he only cares about his trial

I think it's time for a little military coup, the B&W chiefs have the men in the IDF, make it a silent one where they inform bibi he has to go

I could actually see Gantz prying the Haredim away from Bibi and forming a coalition with them and the Joint List but for the fact that Deri and Litzman want immuniry just as badly as Netanyahu.

It is amazing that virtually the entire right bloc is intractably part of the right bloc mainly becauae they want immunity for felonies they committed using their positions in government. That kind of moral and democratic degradation is surely no worse than a silent coup. The difference is that the IDF is generally concerned only about Israel's security and stability while the right bloc is obviously concerned about personal security and status to an unhealthy extent.