Israeli General Election (2019) II: Electric Boogaloo (17.9.2019)

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What sort of demands will Otzmah make to support a government?

[Walmart_shopper]

What sort of demands will Otzmah make to support a government?

Kneecapping the Supreme Court is kind of their big thing right now. They would also demand annexation and settlement expansion. Also probably a rejection of any gay rights legislation. But the irony is that a right wing government will do all of that anyway.

[Oryxslayer]

Otzmah Yehudit, the Kahanist party, is now pretty consistently passing the threshold. That's terrifying, but I am dubious that they'll actually slip in. It is also notable that even with Otzmah in the right wing still has only 58 mandates and Blue and White are now consistently leading Likud by one

I mean they have only gotten into the Knesset in 3/9 September polls, which is rather normal for a MOE party that is getting 2.8% or so in the others. Like I said earlier, the zehut vote seems to have gone almost perfectly over to otzma, even though their negotiations were with likud. Unless things still change though, I doubt otzma gets in - zehut was getting seats in EVERY poll, sometime 5/6 seats, but still missed the Knesset. If otzma gets in, the right will probably have bigger issues like turnout and likuds inability to hold their vote together.

But yes, it is  a scary outcome.

[Hnv1]

Otzmah Yehudit, the Kahanist party, is now pretty consistently passing the threshold. That's terrifying, but I am dubious that they'll actually slip in. It is also notable that even with Otzmah in the right wing still has only 58 mandates and Blue and White are now consistently leading Likud by one

I mean they have only gotten into the Knesset in 3/9 September polls, which is rather normal for a MOE party that is getting 2.8% or so in the others. Like I said earlier, the zehut vote seems to have gone almost perfectly over to otzma, even though their negotiations were with likud. Unless things still change though, I doubt otzma gets in - zehut was getting seats in EVERY poll, sometime 5/6 seats, but still missed the Knesset. If otzma gets in, the right will probably have bigger issues like turnout and likuds inability to hold their vote together.

But yes, it is  a scary outcome.

I think what we see is Rightward bleeding votes to Otzma, some Zehut voters, Noam voters, and Habbad getting behind again.

Bibi to make a statement, probably commit to annexation in C territories.

Only plus side today is Labour getting dangerously close to the threshold even before the great suctions of Election Day

[Walmart_shopper]

Otzmah Yehudit, the Kahanist party, is now pretty consistently passing the threshold. That's terrifying, but I am dubious that they'll actually slip in. It is also notable that even with Otzmah in the right wing still has only 58 mandates and Blue and White are now consistently leading Likud by one

I mean they have only gotten into the Knesset in 3/9 September polls, which is rather normal for a MOE party that is getting 2.8% or so in the others. Like I said earlier, the zehut vote seems to have gone almost perfectly over to otzma, even though their negotiations were with likud. Unless things still change though, I doubt otzma gets in - zehut was getting seats in EVERY poll, sometime 5/6 seats, but still missed the Knesset. If otzma gets in, the right will probably have bigger issues like turnout and likuds inability to hold their vote together.

But yes, it is  a scary outcome.

I think what we see is Rightward bleeding votes to Otzma, some Zehut voters, Noam voters, and Habbad getting behind again.

Bibi to make a statement, probably commit to annexation in C territories.

Only plus side today is Labour getting dangerously close to the threshold even before the great suctions of Election Day

I thought Chabad specifically urged against voting for Otzmah, because it doesn't think it will cross the threshold?

[Hnv1]

Otzmah Yehudit, the Kahanist party, is now pretty consistently passing the threshold. That's terrifying, but I am dubious that they'll actually slip in. It is also notable that even with Otzmah in the right wing still has only 58 mandates and Blue and White are now consistently leading Likud by one

I mean they have only gotten into the Knesset in 3/9 September polls, which is rather normal for a MOE party that is getting 2.8% or so in the others. Like I said earlier, the zehut vote seems to have gone almost perfectly over to otzma, even though their negotiations were with likud. Unless things still change though, I doubt otzma gets in - zehut was getting seats in EVERY poll, sometime 5/6 seats, but still missed the Knesset. If otzma gets in, the right will probably have bigger issues like turnout and likuds inability to hold their vote together.

But yes, it is  a scary outcome.

I think what we see is Rightward bleeding votes to Otzma, some Zehut voters, Noam voters, and Habbad getting behind again.

Bibi to make a statement, probably commit to annexation in C territories.

Only plus side today is Labour getting dangerously close to the threshold even before the great suctions of Election Day

I thought Chabad specifically urged against voting for Otzmah, because it doesn't think it will cross the threshold?

Chabadnik aren’t like Hasidim, the authority of current Rabbis is much less stern (mainly as those psychos still think the big one is quasi alive), the closer otzma are to threshold the ban will break

[danny]

I thought Chabad specifically urged against voting for Otzmah, because it doesn't think it will cross the threshold?

Chabbad doesn't have a single authority. There was a letter from a group of Rabbis saying not to vote for a party that won't pass the threshold, but with recent polls this won't be relevant to Otzma.

[Comrade Funk]

Netanyahu is vowing the annex the Jordan Valley if elected. And knowing Israel, the right-wing probably will be.

[Oryxslayer]

Netanyahu is vowing the annex the Jordan Valley if elected. And knowing Israel, the right-wing probably will be.

For all the section three red meat Bibi could have thrown to the base, this one is surprisingly soft. The Jordan valley in terms of land sectioning is a bunch of 'large' (israeli context) farms, nature reserves, military zones, and tourist hotspots. Jericho is the only place of real tension, and Bibi probably intends to stay away from that.

[Walmart_shopper]

Netanyahu is vowing the annex the Jordan Valley if elected. And knowing Israel, the right-wing probably will be.

For all the section three red meat Bibi could have thrown to the base, this one is surprisingly soft. The Jordan valley in terms of land sectioning is a bunch of 'large' (israeli context) farms, nature reserves, military zones, and tourist hotspots. Jericho is the only place of real tension, and Bibi probably intends to stay away from that.

Yeah, he has been talking about this for months. He's trying to make it newsy and dramatic because he's about to be beaten and Trump won't bail him out. It is a bafflingly stupid idea, and it fits well enough into the broader kamikaze mission of the Israeli right. But, really, he isn't going to endear Otzmah voters with anything short of full West Bank annexation. Maybe there are a few Bennet voters he can pick off with this, who knows.

[Walmart_shopper]

I actually think Bolton getting canned is a much more consequential (for Israel) development than whatever bluster Netanyahu spews on tv.

[Velasco]

Netanyahu failed to pass a bill allowing cameras at polling stations, aimed at bullying the Palestinian minority

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/netanyahu-israel-election-camera-bill-arab-voter-likud-trump-a9097316.html

Mr Netanyahu has frequently raised the threat of voter fraud on the part of Israeli Arabs as a campaign tactic to mobilise his right-wing base, despite there being little evidence to support his claims. The strategy has drawn comparisons to president Donald Trump, who has made similar unsubstantiated claims about minority communities in the US.

“We know that large-scale fraud exists, and it must be prevented. Allowing party-affiliated observers to film the voting process is the only way to prevent election theft,” the prime minister said on Sunday.
 

[Hnv1]

This announcement means nothing. He’ll need more than 61 seats with his narrow right government if he tries to pass it with anything less than a US lukewarm approach

[America Needs R'hllor]

I still predict Otzma won't pass the threshold in the end of the day. Remember, before the election Zehut were at 5-7 seats. However, I will say this- if Netanyahu forms a government with Otzma, I will not support it, I will not consider it my government, and I will not defend it on anything. It'll be illegitimate to me.

[Velasco]

Netanyahu is vowing the annex the Jordan Valley if elected. And knowing Israel, the right-wing probably will be.

For all the section three red meat Bibi could have thrown to the base, this one is surprisingly soft. The Jordan valley in terms of land sectioning is a bunch of 'large' (israeli context) farms, nature reserves, military zones, and tourist hotspots. Jericho is the only place of real tension, and Bibi probably intends to stay away from that.

Yeah, he has been talking about this for months. He's trying to make it newsy and dramatic because he's about to be beaten and Trump won't bail him out. It is a bafflingly stupid idea, and it fits well enough into the broader kamikaze mission of the Israeli right. But, really, he isn't going to endear Otzmah voters with anything short of full West Bank annexation. Maybe there are a few Bennet voters he can pick off with this, who knows.

I
The Jordan Valley is vitally important in terms of geostrategy and water resources. The control of this valley is key for the future prospects of Israeli colonialists and the access to water will be probably a cause for future conflicts in the Middle East, given overpopulation and climate crisis. Bibi is by no means throwing "silly ideas". Bibi is just being more explicit about his goals than his rivals*, because he's trying to rally the rightwing vote and the fanatic bunch of the West Bank settlements. But maybe Bibi's proposal is too soft for a Kahanist settler living in downtown Hebron, I don't know. The process of colonization and annexation will continue anyway, regardless who's the next PM

EDIT: Benny Gantz supports explicitly the annexation of the Jordan Valley

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/sep/10/netanyahu-vows-annex-large-parts-occupied-west-bank-trump

In Israeli politics, however, annexation is a popular position. Israel has long stated it would want to keep the 2,400-sq km (926.65-sqmile) Jordan Valley to maintain control over the international border.

Benny Gantz, the head of the main opposition party, Blue and White, said Netanyahu had stolen his idea.

“Blue and White have made clear that the Jordan Valley is a part of Israel forever. We are happy that Netanyahu has come around to adopt the Blue and White plan to recognise the Jordan Valley,” he said. 

[danny]

This announcement means nothing. He’ll need more than 61 seats with his narrow right government if he tries to pass it with anything less than a US lukewarm approach

There is no reason to think Bibi means this in the first place, this is just the usual campaign promise with no intention to keep it. He did the same thing a couple of elections ago with promises to build in E1 that never came to anything.

[libertpaulian]

Israel politics junkies: If I were Netanyahu right now, should I be sweating, or shopping for champagne?

[Walmart_shopper]

Israel politics junkies: If I were Netanyahu right now, should I be sweating, or shopping for champagne?

Netanyahu is clearly in serious trouble. His best case scenario is a majority of only one propped up by pro-ethnic cleansing facists, theocrats, messianists with a Masada Complex, a dude about to be indicted for his office to cover up child molestation, and his historic political rivals. It almost makes losing seem more desirable. It would also help blow the lid off the whole "only democracy in the middle east" nonsense we like to talk about to legitinize whatever dystoptian vulgarity we're up to. So there's that, too.

But, in the end, I just don't think he gets that majority and so the show will go on.

[Oryxslayer]

Otzma's getting into the Knesset in a few more polls. Interestingly, all these polls have B&W leading likud and the parties that would nominate bibi still fail to get 60+ seats. Like I said, Bibi would have bigger problems then a Fascist party to please if Otzma gets seats.

[Coldstream]

I apologise for asking what I imagine is an obvious question, but, do settlers in the West Bank and Golan Heights get to vote?

[danny]

I apologise for asking what I imagine is an obvious question, but, do settlers in the West Bank and Golan Heights get to vote?

yes

[Hnv1]

Israel politics junkies: If I were Netanyahu right now, should I be sweating, or shopping for champagne?

Stay dehydrated as you’re going to sweat a lot

[Oryxslayer]

I apologise for asking what I imagine is an obvious question, but, do settlers in the West Bank and Golan Heights get to vote?

Yes, but they are not at all numerous: the Golan and the West bank cast the lowest and second lowest numbers of votes of any Israeli region. Polling stations are less frequent and only in some settlements. The voters themselves tend to prefer parties that support further expansion into the West Bank, with URWP getting far more votes in the settlements than in Israel general. The Golan is far more integrated and has been de facto part of Israel for a while, and so her politics are far less right wing than the West Bank, but still leans right of the nation overall.

[Velasco]

I apologise for asking what I imagine is an obvious question, but, do settlers in the West Bank and Golan Heights get to vote?

Yes, but they are not at all numerous: the Golan and the West bank cast the lowest and second lowest numbers of votes of any Israeli region. Polling stations are less frequent and only in some settlements. The voters themselves tend to prefer parties that support further expansion into the West Bank, with URWP getting far more votes in the settlements than in Israel general. The Golan is far more integrated and has been de facto part of Israel for a while, and so her politics are far less right wing than the West Bank, but still leans right of the nation overall.

I have read settlers represent 8% of the electoral roll and in a recent election Netanyahu called them to vote against the "Arab hordes". As everybody knows, Palestinians in the West Bank can't vote and are deprived of basic rights. Palestinians within legal borders are Israeli citizens. On the other hand, Palestinians in East Jerusalem are usually rejected to become Israelis

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-east-jerusalem-palestinians-face-uphill-battle-in-bid-for-israeli-citizenship-1.6844543

Regarding the Golan Heights, I think that most of the original inhabitants are Druze with a status of stateless persons. A majority of Druze rejects to become Israeli and remains loyal to the Syrian state.

[Coldstream]

I apologise for asking what I imagine is an obvious question, but, do settlers in the West Bank and Golan Heights get to vote?

Yes, but they are not at all numerous: the Golan and the West bank cast the lowest and second lowest numbers of votes of any Israeli region. Polling stations are less frequent and only in some settlements. The voters themselves tend to prefer parties that support further expansion into the West Bank, with URWP getting far more votes in the settlements than in Israel general. The Golan is far more integrated and has been de facto part of Israel for a while, and so her politics are far less right wing than the West Bank, but still leans right of the nation overall.

I have read settlers represent 8% of the electoral roll and in a recent election Netanyahu called them to vote against the "Arab hordes". As everybody knows, Palestinians in the West Bank can't vote and are deprived of basic rights. Palestinians within legal borders are Israeli citizens. On the other hand, Palestinians in East Jerusalem are usually rejected to become Israelis

https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/.premium-east-jerusalem-palestinians-face-uphill-battle-in-bid-for-israeli-citizenship-1.6844543

Regarding the Golan Heights, I think that most of the original inhabitants are Druze with a status of stateless persons. A majority of Druze rejects to become Israeli and remains loyal to the Syrian state.

Gotta be honest, as instinctively pro-Israel as I am the fact that this means Palestinians living around the settlements can’t vote but the settlers can doesn’t sit right with me. Imo if Israel is serious about convincing people they aren’t planning to annex the entirety of the West Bank they shouldn’t let settlers vote.